In , out, shake it all about

[Blah Blah]

Millions of turks are not going to come to the UK any more than millions of rumanians or bulgarians did. It's just nonsense. And Merkel says all kinds of things. You do realise that Turkey has to go through a lot of stages, including economic, before mebership can even be considered. They are nowhere near meeting those requirements yet.

On your lorry driver example. If you don't want wages going down, join unions and take on your employers. We've always had surplus Labour (apart from the 60s) and employers often end jobs only to readvertise them at lower rates. That isn't caused by the Pole, but by the lack of worker organisation to fight for fair rates of pay.

[Earl Aelfheah]

The point is apbremmer that leaving the EU will not help your Lorry driving friend. Not unless we stop trading with the EU altogether in which case, yes, we could ignore conditions of EU trade (including the free movement of labour), but then your friend would probably end up unemployed.

[Louisa]

That's rubbish. Why are you europhiles spouting such unfounded rubbish? Where is the evidence to prove that the EU would stop trading with us? We would have to sit down and renegotiate our terms of trade with them, and it is likely to be nothing like the deal struck between Norway and Switzerland. We are a major player, and they need us as much as we need them. All of the above including freedom of movement and trading tariffs would be up for discussion and we would reach a mutual settlement for everyone's benefit. Suggesting a lorry driver would become unemployed is hypothetical nonsense and based on no firm facts.

Louisa.

[*Bob*]

One thing's for sure: if the referendum vote ends with a 'stay', Farage has done Cameron and the Cons a huge favour.

[Earl Aelfheah]

The idea that we can leave the EU and continue to trade, but on better terms seems fanciful to me. why on earth would they agree to more favourable terms of trade?

We'll still have to trade with the EU, but will have far less influence over the rules which govern that particular market. The idea that we can leave and that this will somehow give us more control over how the European market operates or the regulations it imposes on trading nations is what is rubbish.

[Louisa]

Why do you believe it to be fanciful rah, what evidence do you have to prove that we would not get better terms than the ones we currently have? The Irish and Germans are already panicking at the thought of brexit because the UK is one of the biggest trading partners within the union, and even if we decided to leave (against their wishes), they would have to deal with that by renegotiating terms which would benefit them as much as us. At present we are one nation amongst many, pumping money in for membership of an organisation where we have very little influence over matters anyway. Being outside won't change that situation, but we may be able to change terms of trade to benefit us, who knows? There are no guarantees but at least we are actively seeking a better solution for our own benefit.

Louisa.

[Earl Aelfheah]

malumbu Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Question I have is wtf we are having a referendum

> in the first place. It didn't bother me and it

> was only my mate Farage stirring things up that

> this happened.

The reason we're in this position is two fold:

The tabloids have spent years drip feeding misinformation, stupid stories about bendy bananas and people not being able to celebrate Christmas because of 'Brussels'. They've also done a nice line in xenophobia, conflating issues of asylum and migration and suggesting that people travel across Europe mainly to obtain benefits. The whole thing has obscured many of the genuine problems that exist within the EU and by distracting people from those issues, may have slowed progress towards addressing them. With regards the substantive matters of lack of accountability, a bloated, inefficient bureaucracy etc. - this is the second reason. I suspect that if, as a nation we had taken a more grown up approach to all this years ago, engaged fully with Europe, with a much clearer commitment to improving the institutions (instead of dithering with one leg in and one leg out), we may have been able to improve things significantly. The problem is we've demonstrated a lingering feeling of superiority - a nostalgic and unrealistic opinion of ourselves as a nation and our place in it (again, fueled in some small part by our pathetic 'up yours Delores' style press coverage).

The sad thing about all this, is that if we leave, things in the EU will get worse, not better. We'll have less influence. We'll still have to comply with EU regulations (as long as we continue to trade in Europe) and we'll probably end up diminished as a country and economy.

All largely because the quality of public discourse remains resolutely rubbish.

[Earl Aelfheah]

Louisa Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Why do you believe it to be fanciful rah, what

> evidence do you have to prove that we would not

> get better terms than the ones we currently have?

> The Irish and Germans are already panicking at the

> thought of brexit because the UK is one of the

> biggest trading partners within the union, and

> even if we decided to leave (against their

> wishes), they would have to deal with that by

> renegotiating terms which would benefit them as

> much as us. At present we are one nation amongst

> many, pumping money in for membership of an

> organisation where we have very little influence

> over matters anyway. Being outside won't change

> that situation, but we may be able to change terms

> of trade to benefit us, who knows? There are no

> guarantees but at least we are actively seeking a

> better solution for our own benefit.

>

> Louisa.

Because, you cannot have a trading block which allows people to compete on unequal terms. If the EU allow the UK to set it's own terms - terms which give it an advantage over other nations within the EU, the whole single market will collapse.

[TheArtfulDogger]

I'm loving watching the Louisa and blah blah love story unfold here.

It's interesting to see different peoples points of view, and even more interesting to listen to the politicians statements of belief (not facts) about what they think will happen either way including we will be safer and stronger in the eu to we are at a higher risk of terrorism if we stay in... Both are speculation as we won't know either way until after the referendum.

So far I haven't seen any real facts on if we are better in or out but I have seen lots of speculation and predictions again looking at the concept that we won't be able to trade with Europe without levies and tariffs , it should be noted we import more from Europe then we export, so in who's interest would it be to restrict trade between the uk and the rest of Europe ?

Over the next 4 months there will be lots of rumours and the real game will be to distill the truth

[Blah Blah]

Louisa, you are deluded. Why do you keep arguing that the UK will get a more favourable deal than Norway and Switzerland? Do you think either of those two countries will let that happen? I've posted articles and data put together by people far more in the know than you. Read then and then challenge those if you can. Just assuming we are a more important player than Norway and Switzerland and that the EU will bow before us is so ridiculous.

[Blah Blah]

But Dogger, we do have an idea of what an exit would mean for trade deals in the examples of Norway and Switzerland. So to say there's no precedent is wrong. And the economics of it aside, there are the regulatory requirements of dealing with the EU like free movement of people. These rules are all laid down in treaties and EU law that require a long process involving all member states to change. So in the short term, we absolutely would be subject to the same conditions as Norway and Switzerland, and the chances of changing those terms will be almost zero as we will have no power within the EU to lobby for change.

[Loz]

Louisa Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Lots of us are anti EU because it stands against our principles of

> democracy and internationalism.

Democracy? From the same country where, of the top three executive levels only one is elected, and that uses possibly the most undemocratic system it could find? And of the other two executive level, one is hereditary and the other by lifelong (at least) political appointment.

The UK could teach the EU a lot about circumventing democracy.

[Alan Medic]

Anyone mention yet that if the UK opts out there's every chance Scotland will opt out of the UK.

[Earl Aelfheah]

@artful - of course no one can claim to know exactly what will happen if we leave the EU, but that's not to say that certain scenarios are not far more likely than others. IMO, the best case scenario if we leave, will be that we continue to trade with europe on roughly the same terms as we do now. This of course will have achieved effectively nothing, except that we will be subject to, rather than party to the future rules and regulations imposed on nations trading within the common market. Worst case scenario is that we'll continue trading, but on significantly worse terms, also with the loss of influence. The idea that there is a third, more likely scenario, in which all member states quickly and happily agree to offering the UK preferential terms, providing us an advantage to all other members, shortly after we have shown them the finger, seems to me incredibly naive.

[????]

Blah Blah Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Louisa, you are deluded. Why do you keep arguing

> that the UK will get a more favourable deal than

> Norway and Switzerland? Do you think either of

> those two countries will let that happen? I've

> posted articles and data put together by people

> far more in the know than you. Read then and then

> challenge those if you can. Just assuming we are a

> more important player than Norway and Switzerland

> and that the EU will bow before us is so

> ridiculous.

the UK is Germany's 3rd biggest market - Switzerland its 9th ad Norway its 29th

The UK is also France's 3rd biggest market - total exports to the UK E39bn compared to E15bn for Switzerland and E6.3bn for Norway.....

So I think we are (a more important player)

[Loz]

Alan Medic Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Anyone mention yet that if the UK opts out there's

> every chance Scotland will opt out of the UK.

Actually, that's possibly the one issue that WOULD encourage me to vote for exiting. :))

[*Bob*]

I'm thoroughly enjoying ex-Con MP Jerry Hayes's description of Boris as ?a copper bottomed, double dealing hypocritical little shit? today.

[Earl Aelfheah]

???? Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

>

> the UK is Germany's 3rd biggest market -

> Switzerland its 9th ad Norway its 29th

>

> The UK is also France's 3rd biggest market - total

> exports to the UK E39bn compared to E15bn for

> Switzerland and E6.3bn for Norway.....

>

> So I think we are (a more important player)

Cameron has made a concerted effort to renegotiate terms. I don't know why people think that once we have played our only real card (flouncing off), we're likely to be able to come shuffling back with our tail between our legs and at that point extract significant concessions.

[right-clicking]

Definitely in! United States of Europe is the way forward! Total fiscal and political union with the pound on board would make a currency and a world leader to counter the completion of the 3 or 4 other superpowers! alone we sink back into something similar to the 50's and no doubt lamenting to the words "you never had it so good"

[BrandNewGuy]

Blimey, what have you been smoking? ;-) I'm 'in', but very very critical of the whole EU mess. In fact, Cameron's (admittedly token) concession that 'ever closer political union' does not apply to the UK is good news. I detest most of the main voices on both sides of the debate, so I'll do my best to ignore the whole shebang for the next four months. Four months! Christ...

[DulwichFox]

Yepp.. Stay in and as the Euro collapses (which it will) and European coutries go bankrupt (which some allready have) the good old U.K. will still be there to help bail them out.. (we will have no choice)

Refugees will head this way.. we will allow them in.. we will go bankrupt with no one left to bail us out..

We need to get out of this mess.. Walk away.. Cut our losses..

We are slaves to Brussels..

Time to fix The U.K.

DulwichFox

[Louisa]

Cameron has made no effort whatsoever. It's all hot air, and no substance. The fundamental issues that make people on both ends of the political spectrum angry about this institution have not, will not and most importantly NEVER will be addressed whilst we remain in a political union. Outside of this union we have a chance to create a future in which we define our own destiny. I understand and take on board, previous commentary about us leaving and not having influence by lacking a seat at the table whilst remaining a trading partner, but I would this is all hear say. No country has left this union, no other European country outside of the EU which continues to trade with it has a population or economy as large as us. Do not doubt the unknown, embrace it and see it as an opportunity to do better.

I envisage a future where we can get out waters back, fishing and agriculture being returned to our own hands. Coal and steel being mined once more. This leap into the dark, is more a leap into the garden of Eden. Anyone who believes we are top table decision maker is delusional, we never will be inside the EU.

Louisa.

[*Bob*]

Louisa Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

Coal and steel being mined once more.

.. rickets, polio, scurvy - and back-to-back terraces.

[DulwichFox]

Thatcher insured the mines could never be used again by swiching off the pumps and allowing the mines to flood.

DulwichFox

[????]

steel is mined?