Cameron and Europe

[????]

...and of course let their currency float freely on the international exchange markets as Adam Smith would have said....oh, hang on a minute

[Huguenot]

More than 10,000 companies 'failed' in the UK last year. I'd hardly call that interventionist.

There's nothing capitalist about allowing speculators to destroy your national economy by trashing banks.

China spent a whopping $585bn on 'stimulus' last year, a figure that dwarfs the UK's $30bn.

The Chinese government essentially 'owns' every company in China over a given size through the appointment of party members to senior roles. They're in no danger of letting them 'fail' unless it suits them.

[Magpie]

Back on topic - below are the responses to a question asked as part of a Yougov survey. It suggests that for voters Europe is very much a secondary issue, and that Cameron needs to avoid being dragged into an internal row over Europe

Which two or three issues will be most important to you in deciding who you vote for in the coming election?

1. The economy - 56 per cent

2. Immigration & Asylum - 43 per cent

3. Health - 34 per cent

4. Crime - 30 per cent

5. Tax - 27 per cent

6. Pensions - 26 per cent

7. Education - 19 per cent

8. Family life & childcare - 18 per cent

9. The environment - 15 per cent

10. Europe - 10 per cent

11. Iraq / Afghanistan - 10 per cent

12. Transport - 5 per cent

[????]

But Cameron is now saying bugger all about anything and Osbourne is looking absolutely pants on the own goal for Labour that is the economy. A year ago I was seriously contemplating them, now I grow less and less convinced almost daily. I agree I don't think Europe is the big issue at the moment, and if the Euro gets into problems they'll be in a 'good place'. Papering over the cracks in the various views in the tory party will be ok....for now.

[vinceayre]

In China you don't get rewarded for failure like you do here, RBS is bankrupt with losses last year of $40billion and this year of $6billion yet they pay out bonus's of $2billion. The show is over, the spivs should be shown the door, if they don't want to do it go because there are a lot of people who will step into their place. The government doesn't know how to play the game and are being bent over at all turns by market traders with a degree who do know how its played. Bonus day in a bank is a series of revolving doors with people leaving and new people starting, if they think by paying these people what they want they will somehow get loyalty from it they are sorely mistaken.

Most of those companies that have failed have done so because of said banks not allowing them to survive when they themselves are bust, tragically ironic.

$30billion, dream on, QE alone is $300billion

[Huguenot]

I don't know which China you went to Vince, but it wasn't the same one I lived in for two years. :D

It's a digression.

The really interesting thing about those figures is how low they are compared with the media coverage of the Lisbon treaty, and Cameron reneging on the commitment to a referendum.

To read the press you'd be forgiven for thinking that we were on the threshold of armed insurrection. In fact it transpires that actually 90% of the population is pretty happy with the Europe set-up.

[SeanMacGabhann]

nobody anywhere has shown me anything to suggest the economy is Labour's fault. You can point out what they should have dones, but no other British party would have done them at the time

[vinceayre]

The one thats just north of Watford

[vinceayre]

I know this is nuts but I am actually thinking of voting Labour (again, even though I am a Tory at heart) after hearing of Browns temper and bullying,I want someone who will get annoyed if things are not done running the show, with Cameron I just don't get anything from him, its like there is a void there.

Now if Lord Mandy was to run for PM i would vote for him in a heartbeat. He has what it takes.

With the Europe thing once the treaty was ratified by all nations it was a done deal, there was no hope of a referendum really.

[????]

A few just straightforward ones Sean directly as a result of Gordon

Won't listen to other advice - Sold off our gold reserves when the market was at rock bottom (and against Treasury advice)

Believed his own boom and bust hype - Kept with the Tory rules on budget defeceit until 2000/01 then went on a spending spree and put NOTHING aside for a rainy day, that's unusual during periods of surplus (it may even be unprecedented)

Tax on pension funds absolutely buggering up already pretty poor performing private pensions - Public Sector workers and of course himself won't be affected by that.

We could also mention giving the financial markets free reign above what Thatcher did - It was Labour and the Democrats wot did that not the 'Neocons'

But, politically he's been pretty cute as it is all the bankers fault or an international recession...wasn't international when it was strong growth of course, it was his brillian stewardship.

[????]

I do personally give him credit for BoE independence AND some of the initial stimulus measures against potential catastrophe, although I still think they're sticking plaster whilst we hope something else turns up. As I said, Osbourne is thoroughly unconvincing though.

[Magpie]

I agree with Quids, the global crisis came about as a result of mercantilist policies by the Chinese, and by poor policy responses by US and European central banks. They kept interest rates to stay low for too long, leading to a debt boom. This can't be laid at Labours door. However, the fact that the UK has been one of the worst affected is their fault - the record tax receipts off the back of continuous growth in the last decade (the majority from the much maligned financial sector) have been spent and then some, to the extent that the UK did not have the resources for a fiscal stimulus. To an extent Labour's constant tinkering with taxes and benefits, its intervention in pension funds, sale of Gold etc are all minor symptoms of the bigger issue - mismanagement of the nation?s finances. On that basis a rational person should not vote for them. Do you give a drunk the key to the drinks cabinet?

[Brendan]

No. But I?m also pretty worried about giving a thief the keys to the safe.

[????]

And back in the real world rather than how we wished it was (From BBC website)...

"Even at this late hour others weigh in. The head of the 16-nation Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Juncker, says: "Greece must understand that taxpayers in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands are not prepared to correct Greek fiscal policy mistakes". The French Economy Minister, Christine Lagarde, reminded everyone that the euro was built on the premise that "there would be no bail-out, because everyone had to play by the same rules and had to respect the same discipline".

At the end of last week the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou sounded like a man who knew he needed to do more. "Will we let the country go bankrupt?" he asked, "or will we react?" So he may this week announce yet more austerity measures, perhaps a further cut in benefits or a hike in sales tax. He must hope he can squeeze his public sector some more whilst keeping the rioters at bay.

Some European leaders still hope somehow Greece can convince the markets that it can cut its deficit by 4% this year and avoid any rescue.

However, the believers out there are few. Giant hedge funds have placed their bets; the euro will drop further. In their view the euro's inherent weaknesses are not being addressed. Most senior European officials believe some kind of bail-out will be needed.

While they watch these latest moves George Papandreou is set to travel to Berlin on Friday to meet Angela Merkel. It is a key meeting. If Greece is to be rescued by Europe the Germans will have to be at the heart of it. The German people are against; it was their big fear when they gave up their beloved Deutschmark that they would end up bailing out the reckless."

[SteveT]

Most of the countries using the euro would be rid of it if they could only turn back the clock.

I always thought that they (Germany) rushed into it, and I felt that it should have run alongside all the other currencies as an additional currency.

[????]

...the beginning of the end?

Greece will go and then they'll look at the next Euro target Spain/Portugal?

[Huguenot]

Not even remotely the beginning of the end. Just a quickening of resolve.

Most of Yorkshire has had government money pumped into it for decades, it didn't lead to the break up of the UK.

Either way Quids, I don't understand why you're gloating? The UK doesn't have sufficient natural resources to survive, we need effective and stable free trade areas for our national health. If Eurozone fails then we all pay the price.

[????]

Where's the gloat Hugenot? Your romanticism is hiding your logic from a flawed and doomed to fail monetary union.

[????]

Greek civil servants retire on full pensions 5 years before their German equivalents...why should Germans fund this? This is a question they are asking themselves, meanwhile the Greek unions take to the streets at a hint of reform and the measures Greece took yesterday were originally put up as 'last resort' and so it goes on as the cost of servicing their horrendous debts rise as the markets don't belive it....and so it goes on.

[Huguenot]

I can't remember the miners' strike prompting calls for Ripon and South Wales to withdraw from the pound.

The Greeks, like the miners, are living on borrowed time and a myth of social immortality and self indulgence.

It doesn't really challenge the currency, but then this is about probabilities not absolutes.

I think its far more likely that Little Englanders will bring the nation to its knees by isolating themselves from the international community that puts bread on their table. Talk about biting the hand that feeds you...

[????]

It's not the 'Little Englanders' who will pull the plug on the Euro it will be the 'Little Deutchlanders' Hugenot when what they always feared comes true....some southern European countries lying to get in and hoping for a free ride on german prudence.....

[Huguenot]

Despite sharing the currency and taking on the economic cost of a national merger, West Germany did not reject East Germany on the grounds they were getting a free ride.

I think you do Germans a disservice.

Besides, Germany is wealthier per head than Brits, has a more productive workforce than Britain. They know full well that this growth was generated in no small part by the introduction of a common currency and economic convergence.

They'd be unlikely to be so myopic to toss these benefits away over a short term rationalisation of the Greek economy. Germany isn't giving cash to the Greeks, it's offering loans and making them conditional on reform. A stronger Greek economy is another growing export market for German goods and services.

If there was a currency to drop after losing 30% of its value in the last twelve months, it'd be the Pound not the Euro.

[????]

"East Germany YES, unification makes sense for us, Greece mmm, ok their small, Portugal...hang on a minute, Italy!!!.....what ever next Spain? Spain OMG....we're out". Dreams, Huge, mere dreams, the romance of it etc...

[????]

anyway, don't take it from an old little englander like me just listen to the Germans

Germany's finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, also said aid should not be taken for granted, but was conditional on prudent behaviour.

He told the mass-selling Bild newspaper no firm decision had been taken and any loan depended "entirely on whether Greece continues in the coming years with the strict savings course it has launched".

Opposition to aid for Greece runs deep in Germany. Bild recently wrote a so-called open letter to Greece asking whether Germans went to work such long hours and for so many years simply to let Greeks retire in their 50s.

[Huguenot]

Exactly my point on Schaeuble.

Germany's finance minister didn't say it called into question the entire idea of the the EU and the single currency. He said that loans are conditional on good behaviour. No shock there.

As for Das Bild, well where does one start with this world shaking tabloid and political commentator?

They're one of the few newspapers aside from the Daily Sport to carry page 3 girls on page 1. They supported Bush throughout his term of presidency. It's name actually means 'Picture Newspaper', a reflection of the fact that it doesn't expect its buyers to be able to read.

It no more reflects German national opinion than the Daily Sport.