We are all doomed. Discuss.

[louisiana]

Monbiot and Kingnorth discuss our lack of future:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cif-green/2009/aug/17/environment-climate-change

They have not integrated the economic issues. A pity.

Has generated quite a bit of heat on the Grauniad website.

[HAL9000]

louisiana Wrote:

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> Monbiot and Kingnorth discuss our lack of future:

Most of my friends and acquaintances are either optimistic techno-utopians or in complete denial about the problems we face.

Over the last few years I have formed the opinion that a global societal collapse is the most likely outcome - sometime during this century. My most recent research into the various carbon cap and trade schemes has left me disillusioned with the prospect of any effective solutions being implemented on the necessary scale and within time to make any difference.

Yes, the established global order is probably doomed. One or two billion of us may survive the transition. The transition is likely to manifest itself as a series of short, sharp shocks, probably the result of a confluence of events such as famine, plague, natural disasters, war, political instability, financial collapse, etc.

I suspect that most western governments have already figured out the potential risks and have been busy passing draconian legislation under the guise of the War Against Terror to better manage instances of localised societal collapse: The US Patriot Act and the UK Civil Contingencies Act (2004) come to mind.

The latter looks as if it has been designed to lock down major cities and allow nature to take its course. Without food, water, fuel, power, sanitation or law enforcement, a localised over-population problem caused by, say, a sudden famine or fuel shortage, would resolve itself within two or three weeks at most, for example. Leaving the surviving population unscathed.

The worst-case scenario: some of us could find ourselves being sacrificed by our own governments for the greater good.

[louisiana]

I have some doomer friends. Serious doomers.

You are right about the legislation. It's been relentless and they're still at it.

But I suspect government will not be able to hold the centre when things start falling apart, which I don't think will be that long into the future ("this century").

[mockney piers]

I think there will be some serious doom moments in some parts of the world, especially the poorer ones, but if coursefor many they might just shrug and wonder what the fuss is all about, slavery, war and poverty already bei g part of the fabric.

I don't see a catastrophic collapse in western Europe. Things will chNge for sure, but I'm sure it will be more gradual as prices rise to reflect real costs, much we take for granted will become prohibitively expensive; imported food stuffs, cheap travel etc.

There are huge chLlenges ahead but they are not insurmountable, humanity has faced worse and survived and so we will all the challenges ahead. The world in a hundred years time may end up being more rcognisable to a Victrian gent than a baby boomer in many respects, but I don't see it being all Mel Gibson and tina turner.

[SteveT]

If we are all doomed which I guess is correct given we all have life, it would make more sense to ask when will it happen This decade 2 decades etc........................?

[HAL9000]

SteveT Wrote:

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> ... when will it happen ...?

I don't think we can forecast the future that accurately. However, one scenario I can imagine is that the first wave will kick off when one or more resource-rich countries realise that their future survival capability is being sold off in return for potentially worthless fiat currencies.

That is likely to happen long before any real shortages start to bite. And it'll probably trigger a domino effect followed by fierce retaliation from the have-nots - it might even escalate into World War III.

[Huguenot]

I agree with both Piersy and HAL9000.

It's why I favour isolated SE Asian agricultural economies ;-)

[louisiana]

Mockney, I agree that there will be many bad moments in less-developed countries, but even on our doorstep things don't look too rosy.

Take water in southern Europe: they're in water crisis in Spain (variously described as 'the worst drought for 40/60/100 years', and no sign of improvement). Acquifers are no longer producing/have sunk, or have become salinised. Scientists talk matter-of-factly about the 'Africanisation' of the Spanish landscape. N and E Spain brings in water by truck and ship and train from France, and has a massive desalinsation plant construction programme going. There are huge rows about transferring water across the country.

There are around 1,000 desalinisation plants already built in Spain already (the most in any country outside the Middle East) and they are going to need many thousands more, but these plants consume huge amounts of non-renewable power, while also emitting massive quantities of CO2. In other words, they (and by extension, we) are in a positive feedback loop that will be difficult to escape. And we in the UK rely hugely on southern Europe for our fruit and veg (enabled by water that costs next to nothing to farmers there). The crash and burn of Med golf courses is a given (particularly the ones that claim they are farms in order to get super-cheap water - what a racket), and I'd welcome this, but food is a slightly more serious matter.

I only write about Spain because that is what I know about. I'm sure dire things are happening in Greece and other locations. (The riots in Chania last autumn took me aback.)

I don't think there are going to be any really, really sudden radical changes, but resource access and price are going to become a battlefield in the near future. And I'm not sure that DEFRA et al are up to the job.

[????]

Nope. We've always been doomed since the beginning of time. I'm with Macwber..

[HAL9000]

mockney piers Wrote:

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> I don't see a catastrophic collapse in western Europe.

In some scenarios Europe is particularly vulnerable given its reliance on imported energy and the paucity of its indigenous oil and gas reserves.

If foreign oil and gas stopped flowing before sufficient alternative power capacities were in place the result would be seriously destabilising, if not catastrophic.

It would be difficult, if not impossible, to bring alternative power sources on stream in a timely manner after the event.

The seriousness would depend, of course, on many other factors: the season, the weather, the immediately available food supplies, the duration of the blockade, etc.

If the deficiency were permanent, some of us might get through a couple of winters by transforming forests into firewood. But it would be a good few years before a fully functional coal, steam and horse-powered economy were re-established.

[star13uk]

I would recommend on Jerry Pournelle - A Step Further Out. The future is bleak (Club of Rome) and it has been recognised for a long time. But each major issue does have its solution - just the lack of political will or consensus of the voters. The only worry is that by the time the will is there, the means may have gone. Politically, space is pretty much a non starter - we are far too short term in our thinking. But, the answers do lie in that direction. Expensive indeed - but not so much when compared to warfare and nuclear weapon systems. And cost is relative - if it an issue of survival, what does the cost actually matter? I remain an optimist in the face of it all - just hope we don't leave it too late.

[louisiana]

We seem to be heading into problems with milk - Europe and UK-wise...

[mockney piers]

so what's all this i read about gridding wind and solar from the sahara where its basically on tap.

Never thought of it before, or horribly impracticable?

[HAL9000]

Read all about it here: Google Sahara solar energy

[mockney piers]

Interesting. So for the price of some underwater boats with some toys we'll never use and a glorified one day funday, we can secure Europe's energy needs cleanly.

Chuck in another funday and that's africa's needs sorted too. But instead we're building a bunch of coal fired stations, huge gas pipes under the noth sea, very expensive liquid gas centres to import liquified gas from the middle east and we're helping African countries build lots of...wait for it....coL fired power stations.

Do you think sometimes we probably deserve exctinction?

[HAL9000]

The idea has been around for many years but surprisingly little progress has been made. In principle, it appears to provide a viable source of clean energy. In practice, it would likely become mired in political and economic considerations.

The technological obstacles are not trivial, either. Sand/dust storms, I imagine, would be amongst the bigger concerns: I experienced a couple in the Middle East - it's not smooth beach-type sand but sharp, wind-sculpted rock flour that abrades anything it comes into contact with. It strips paint from vehicles and frosts glass in a matter of hours. Where the dust settles, dew transforms it into a sun-baked mud that sticks to surfaces like cement.

[mockney piers]

I'm willing to bet that a future proof flood barrier to protect london will be costlier, and mistake me if I'm wrong but insurmountable political problems don't seem to matter when we're monkeying around in a neo-colonial fashion, but paying a few African countries a bit of cash to stick some mirrors in the sand is?

Yours unconvinced

piers

[HAL9000]

Mockney: I'm with you on this. I don't know why it doesn't seem to be going anywhere.

It may be that Europeans just can't accept the idea of becoming dependent upon yet another group of semi-stable Muslim countries as their future energy suppliers?

[mockney piers]

It does seem like a win win all round despite the difficulties you mentioned. Weird.

If general European cooperation projects like airbus, eurofighter are anything to go by it'll get done, done well, overdue, over budget, and innthe case of the latter already obsolete, but we can do these things together.

Fingers crossed.

[alphacalifragelistic]

@Mockney

At the risk of sounding all earnest on this, the RAE & Royal Society are doing some decent work publicising this.

If you can blag a ticket (it is for academics) you might want to go to this:

http://www.raeng.org.uk/events/pdf/Solar_Thermal_Power_Plants_flyer.pdf

Solar thermal requires fewer technological and scientific leaps than the likes of fusion, commercially viable long life PVs, etc. Basically, you need mirrors, Stirling engines and high voltage DC lines to get you started, all of which we can do.

There is a massive solar thermal energy plan to supply Europe (mostly from the Maghreb) that has been doing the rounds for a while. However, it looks too expensive, by comparison to some of the alternatives coming online:

http://www.desertec.org/

http://www.eurosolar.de/en/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=356&Itemid=98

[Huguenot]

I do think it's a wee bit naive to invest heavily in mediaeval/feudal societies. We did it with oil and reaped some unpleasant benefits.

To a degree the information age has created a large number of societies with a veneer of progressive politics without any sense of the social responsibilities that go with that.

Pumping megabucks into megalomaniacs like Kaddafi over solar power isn't going to help.

Energy security is more likely to come from diversification and decentralisation?

Wadaabout the spicks Piersy? I though Madrid was a 24/7 sunshine city?

[mockney piers]

Spain is pumping money into wind and solar power. Drive from Madrid to Zaragoza and there are some pretty impressive sights on the way. And that solar steam power station is very cool.

I think you're right there should be more investment within Europe, but it might come to a point that chad and Niger etc are where it's at.

[alphacalifragelistic]

Should you get the chance over the next 6 days (after which I believe it expires on the BBC's iPlayer), there is a decent Radio 4 feature on aspects of a nascent European energy policy that you can listen to here:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00mr1wc

It details the development of a 'Supergrid', which would allow the transfer of electricity across the continent. Given that one of the problems with renewables like wind is their intermittent power generation, this should help smooth supply.

Hmmm, so that would be far sighted policy, joint action and infrastructure support for green energy production. Not all bad news, is it?

[mockney piers]

Nice to see it's not all doom and gloom. Cheers alpha.

[computedshorty]

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