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Betting Matters....

Mick Mac

By Mick Mac
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bigbadwolf

bigbadwolf

Posted
Posted

Oh he's a Manc is he. Then surely his professionalism would be put to far greater use if instead of wearing a tie with a ludicrously large estate agent windsor knot he should go to work in a balaclava carrying a sawn-off and rob the place. Far more realistic scenario compared to a Manc working for a living.


Or is that Scousers?

Mick Mac

Mick Mac

Posted
  • Author
Posted

No need Quids - no need my friend. I'm happy that I backed the horse that had decent odds for its chances. I can't back at 4/7 without risking too much money. Having watched the replay (did not see the race) I feel Rip van Winkle has real class and will back it next time - it could possibly go for the Arc?.

I would question Jimmy Fortune's riding, why sit 2 lenghts behind the years best horse and allow it to take a lead into the final 2 furlongs? A furlong out Rip seemed to have the class to overtake but he seems a confused horse, seemed to come up alongside Sea the Stars and did not seem to know how to go past. Sometimes horses are not leaders. But it definately has class.


Sea the Stars is class but there is not much between the first two today and Fame and Glory, so the next race they compete in will be tough to call.

Tony.London Suburbs

Tony.London Suburbs

Posted
Posted

???? Wrote:

I got 35, he's 13 this morning so I've laid it and now have a free bet (albeit with reduced profit).


That is exactly the way to a potentially profitable betting career quidsy.


Of course you could always bring a guaranteed profit together if his odds continue to fall.


"Little but often"...is the way successful Punters/Traders earn their readies...

Tony.London Suburbs

Tony.London Suburbs

Posted
Posted

red devil Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> how do you get a 'guaranteed profit' Tony?


Thats only achieved RD on the basis that the Guy that you originally backed drops in price during a Tournament.


For example you have ?20 @ 10/1 to, initially, Win ?200 or lose ?20.


His price reduces to, say, 3/1.


You then "Lay" on Betfair ?50 @ 3/1 to lose ?150 on that transaction.


Your revised "position" is :


Your Man Wins The Tournament:


You, initially, Win ?200 Minus the ?150 you lost by laying him.

i.e. Profit ?200- ?150= ?50.


Your Man does not Win the Tournament:


You, initially, lose your ?20 but you Win ?50 by having "laid" him.

i.e Profit ?50 Minus your ?20 original outlay = ?30.


Whether he Wins or loses you, thus, make Profit.


If his prices does not reduce then you are stuck with your original "position" or bet RD....


The best tactic, if your Man reduces in price is to get your stake money back and get a "free" bet.


THEN if his price continues to retract then you can put into practice the above....

red devil

red devil

Posted
Posted
Ok Tony, so in effect by 'laying' you become the bookie (in your example offering odds of 3/1), and therefore you are relying on another punter to come along and place their money with you. I don't use exchanges myself so forgive my ignorance, but is there any competition for these 'lay' odds, e.g could you be offering 4/1, and say Quids @ 3/1 amd Mick @ 11/4?..there must be someone at the bottom of this betting 'food chain' who is losing though?..
Tony.London Suburbs

Tony.London Suburbs

Posted
Posted

red devil Wrote:

Ok Tony, so in effect by 'laying' you become the bookie (in your example offering odds of 3/1), and therefore you are relying on another punter to come along and place their money with you. I don't use exchanges myself so forgive my ignorance, but is there any competition for these 'lay' odds, e.g could you be offering 4/1, and say Quids @ 3/1 amd

> Mick @ 11/4?..there must be someone at the bottom of this betting 'food chain' who is losing though?..


No! Its a standard joke that EVERYONE Wins on Betfair Exchange! lol


In reality why not Google Betfair and see for yourself.


In a typical "in-running" market the "Bookmakers are on the left and it shows the best 3 prices available which are offerred to The Punters. The "best" odds are nearest the middle.


On the right hand side are the 3 nearest prices that the Punters want, starting with the Guys who are prepared to take the lowest odds, nearest the middle until the 3rd ( furtherest) column which is the highest odds someone wants.


There may be thousands of other people offerring/asking for other odds which are not on the screen.


You can only be "The Bookmaker" as you rightly say RD by doing this on an Exchange.


Exchanges are 100% safe in all respects and all monies are deducted from BOTH accounts b4 any transaction.


The Winner of the bet gets his stake and profit added to his a/c after the closure of the event, in question..

Tony.London Suburbs

Tony.London Suburbs

Posted
Posted

HAL9000 Wrote:

It sounds like the financial market strategy called 'arbitrage': specifically a type of 'spread' (aka 'hedge') position.

As in 'hedge' fund. Yo!


Thats right HAL9000.


Today you could have backed Roddick at 9/1 and laid him at below Evens at one point!

????

????

Posted
Posted
Indeed,I've had a lump on Federer since day 1 - during the final yesterday I laid Federer at 1.18 at one stage (which was mad as he was never looking that certain) then bet him again a bit later when his odds went out as I'd slighly overcooked it towards Roddick - so sat and watched the match with a sure profit, either way (infact I would have won a bit more if Roddick had won). Any one interested in betting on the Ashes? I think the first test is the best chance England has to win a match and they'll lose the Ashes.
????

????

Posted
Posted

HAL9000 Wrote:

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> Presumably, this strategy is known as 'hedging a

> bet'?

>

> It sounds like the financial market strategy

> called 'arbitrage': specifically a type of

> 'spread' (aka 'hedge') position.

>

> As in 'hedge' fund. Yo!


Hal - the principles are exactly the same as financial trading (as is sports spreadbetting). Betfair was set up by a guy who built trading platforms for the city.

Mick Mac

Mick Mac

Posted
  • Author
Posted

I consider my bet on Westwood a "good" bet despite the fact that that he lost in the play off. Did a saver on Kaymar meaning I won if either player won, but a ?15 profit is of little consolation given that I would have been looking at ?180 if Westwood won. But still a good call given that he was a few back when I placed the bet and it was good to watch his 65 yesterday as he moved through the field, its always worth backing experience.


He might be worth an each way in the Open???


Quids - I'm afraid I relly know very little about cricket, but would be good to hear from those who do how it might pan out. Might have a look at the odds tonight.

????

????

Posted
Posted

My ploy for the Open is to choose 2 or 3 potentials rather than top 5 - as Woods tends to push the others out alot you can get some good odds - and then trade 'em if they're near the leaderboard, you then get 'free' bets with still a decent potential pay off or a small guranteed profit and a smaller win chance - although I tend to like having a freeroll. You've got to pick at least one out of three though!! I've also taken on Woods if he's silly odds.


Aussies evens for the series England 2/1 ish, I think MM. Cricket's good for inplay if you're watching but I don't get the impression you're a big fan?


Profit is profit - even if its ?15!


I had my best week for ages B)

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