House prices (in East Dulwich)

[dave_f]

I thought I'd contribute to this discussion as my first post here - we are actively looking to buy a 2 bed flat right now, so I can see fairly clearly what's going on with the lower(ish) end (400K) of the market. At those prices, anything worth living in is being priced about 30K above actual value. A lot of flats out there around the 400K mark are ex-rental dives and dodgy conversions that have been on the market for months, which are not even worth half the asking price. There is a massive shortage or good property out there. We have been shown some horrific damp basement toilets in crap areas, and told they were incredible investment opportunities. We have had offers accepted at around ?15K below asking price, and when an offer is accepted, agents are in a desperate rush to push things through, because they know the offers are fragile, and buyers will continue to look further. People have stopped panic buying and properties are not flying out as quickly as they were before. Offers are being retracted, and estate agents are a lot more desperate to sell than they used to be.

The fact is that people are leaving London in huge numbers, and many of those that stay behind cannot afford to go above a certain threshold, regardless of how much estate agents think the market can increase. I think prices will keep going up, but at a rate that is much more sensible. The question is whether there is still any point thinking about investment value in London, when the trend is that people are leaving, and London has lost its' reputation as a city of fun and opportunity, and is instead seen as a ridiculous and overpriced nightmare. Almost all my friends have left, and these were all people who were successful, creative and in full time employment. Is it worth buying into places like Lewisham, Ladywell, Hither Green, etc - will those areas keep gentrifying like the rest of London, or has the gentrification been the result of the crazy panic buying of the last 2 years, and will those areas remain borderline sketchy for the foreseeable future?

[Blah Blah]

Interesting post Dave. We too have seen friends move further out or leave London altogether, many of whom are public sector workers, who just can't afford to buy in London at all. When people start families, they expect to be able to find a secure home. Given there is no security in renting, the only option for security becomes either social housing or buying a home, both of which are more and more out of reach. We had parental help to buy our home 7 years ago (couldn't have done it otherwise), but it shouldn't have to be like that. What kind of city are we going to end up with if ordinary people continue to be forced out?

[Jeremy]

The inability for first time buyers to buy a home is shocking, but statements like "the fact is that people are leaving London in huge numbers" or "London has lost its' reputation as a city of fun and opportunity" just sound like one person's rather bitter experiences rather than any real substance.

[first mate]

I think we should pay close attention to developments in our area and how many are manipulating the system, successfully it would seem, to avoid inclusion of social housing.

The further poorly paid staff have to travel in each day, because they cannot afford to live more centrally, whether renting or owning, the worse their performance is likely to be. Public transport is also increasingly stressful. they are unlikely to cycle.

Poorly paid staff include low grade care and hospital workers. Do we really want them to feel stretched and resentful, as many do? Until this directly affects you or your family, you will not figure the knock on effects of the way developers and this govt are skewing the housing market.

The 'we need more housing' mantra is empty as housing is being created for the wrong sector.

[dave_f]

Jeremy Wrote:

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> The inability for first time buyers to buy a home

> is shocking, but statements like "the fact is that

> people are leaving London in huge numbers" or

> "London has lost its' reputation as a city of fun

> and opportunity" just sound like one person's

> rather bitter experiences rather than any real

> substance.

I know what you're saying, and I don't mean to sound bitter. These are not just my views and experiences, they're coming from endless conversations with friends. I'm actually choosing to stay in London because I love it here, but I'm one of the only ones out of a very large circle of acquaintances. I'm actually a second time buyer, but I'm from Brighton, the property I've sold down there is just about enough to cover a deposit for a flat in London. Friends that are first time buyers, or have no parental support are struggling to find anywhere suitable to live - especially young parents with 'normal' jobs. The choice is either to rent - we currently pay ?1700 / month for a flat in West Dulwich - or buy and pay about half that. If we were expecting a baby, I'd have to think about leaving too.

Granted, I don't know many people who work in finance - perhaps the situation is much better for city workers because their wages are more suited to London life. But when you fill a city with nothing but bankers and trust fund hipsters, and exclude everyone else, the place loses its' charm very quickly. Have you been to Dalston recently? It's the new Camden Market - the whole place has been taken over by 'marketing professionals', fake street art, overpriced food and drinks, new-builds and rip-off clubs. I teach at a university a couple of days a week, so I have contact with people in their 20s, and the fact is that to many young people, London doesn't have the appeal it had to us in the 90's / early 2000's. Anyway these are just my views and experiences, I know London is a multi-faceted and complex city full of people from all walks of life.

[EDOldie]

"Why, Sir, you find no man, at all intellectual, who is willing to leave London. No, Sir, when a man is tired of London, he is tired of life; for there is in London all that life can afford."

? Samuel Johnson

[Jeremy]

Maybe you're a few years younger than me dave_f, but amongst people I know in my age range, it's more of a mixture. Some staying in London (either scraping together the money for a house, or living in a flat with their families). Some moving out to the home counties and commuting in. Some returning to their original home towns in other parts of the UK. Some deciding that the marriage/family route isn't for them and happy to continue renting in places like Hackney or whatever.

[Otta]

Most of my friends in the 35 - 40 bracket with young kids have moved out of London to the likes of Tonbridge or Rochester type areas. We very much considered it ourselves when we saw the lovely little cottage our friends had got in Rochester for considerably less than we've paid for a 2 bed council flat in Penge.

For us (both from SE London) family (who help with childcare) and the fact I get free travel in London (which I'd lose if I moved out) meant that it made sense to stay in London. But had I been paying for childcare and travel I'd have given serious thought to moving away.

[LondonMix]

For me it?s a mixture like Jeremy and our friends are in the early to late 30s age bracket. There are still relatively affordable places in London to buy for a professional (non-finance) couple. Its just a question of how much you want to stay in London. My friends with family already in London are the ones who have really figured out what they were willing to compromise on.

London is really unique in that ordinary people still expect to be able to live in houses in the city. In many major metropolises, its taken for granted that you will always live in a flat and no one sees anything wrong with that.

People with parents in London have gotten their deposits when their parents downsized. I know two couples for whom this is the case and neither of their families are wealthy beyond the house they bought for peanuts back in the day. I know another young couple who basically have lived with her parents in London paying very little rent for the past two years to save up their deposit.

Therefore, I don?t think London will ever become a city just for the rich. People with London families will probably continue to live here (as will their kids) for lots of reasons. There will be more people living in flats (like other big cities), people will move the cheaper neighbourhoods etc. Also, circa 20% of London?s housing stock is socially rented I believe so that in and of itself will ensure socio-economic diversity.

It will be harder for people without any roots in London to move to the city but not impossible. Young people having a go will share ever tinier apartments in ever rougher parts of town. I?m not sure that?s ever not been the case though.

[Bovine Juice]

LondonMix Wrote:

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> Also, circa 20% of London?s

> housing stock is socially rented I believe so that

> in and of itself will ensure socio-economic

> diversity.

>

Shame the Tories are attempting to sell even that pish percentage off.

[LondonMix]

I think its 20%. It used to be. It might already be lower. Treat that stat with caution!

[Catalyst]

The fact is that people are leaving London in huge numbers, and many of those that stay behind cannot afford to go above a certain threshold, regardless of how much estate agents think the market can increase.

Same here. I've been hemorrhaging friends and acquaintances over the last 2-3 years. These aren't the "not really cut out for London" types either. None of them wanted to leave. They just couldn't afford to stay and build any kind of secure future. Age range being around mid 30's.

[Desmond's]

Hello everyone. We've been trying to sell our 3 bedroom maisonette (Freehold, In Upland Road SE22) privately for 4 months It's on Zoopla, Right-Move, Prime Location. We advertised it here on the Forum (Thank you EDF)

We've only had 2 proper viewings in that time.

Is there an alternative to going through an agency - To buy and sell, that benefits the buyers and sellers alike.

My wife is resigned to getting an agency to market it for us.

It feels like defeat.

[Jeremy]

Surely that just means it's too expensive..

[LondonMix]

Agreed. Unless your photos and details are somehow misrepresenting your home negatively, it's probably down to price rather than not having an agent.

[ednewmy]

According to Zoopla that maisonette was last sold in 1998 for the princely sum of ?92500. Allowing for inflation let's say that's ?130000 in today's money, yet it's being sold now for circa ?600k. A friend from work bought a flat in Deptford the same year for ?30k (about ?50k today). I expect its price then reflected its undesirable location and I'm not sure how much his is worth now. I hear the area as a whole is improving, but I viewed a flat there recently - grim immediate location, grim dirty stalinist 60s council block, felt like properly rough oppressive inner city London, and the flat was on at ?300k.

Regardless of the circumstances that have led us to this point, at this stage you almost just have to laugh at the ridiculousness of the whole situation.

[Otta]

Deptford has improved a hell of a lot, but it's always.going to be a world apart from East Dulwich.

[Mick Mac]

Desmond's Wrote:

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> Hello everyone. We've been trying to sell our 3

> bedroom maisonette (Freehold, In Upland Road SE22)

> privately for 4 months It's on Zoopla, Right-Move,

> Prime Location. We advertised it here on the Forum

> (Thank you EDF)

> We've only had 2 proper viewings in that time.

> Is there an alternative to going through an agency

> - To buy and sell, that benefits the buyers and

> sellers alike.

> My wife is resigned to getting an agency to market

> it for us.

> It feels like defeat.

Listen to your wife. They are in a job for a reason. They are good at selling houses to people, for more than they want to pay and for more than they are worth.

[Desmond's]

Thank you ednewmy, It's the ridiculousness of the situation that is conflicting us.

and thank you Mick Mac, your forthright opinion is the one my wife was looking for to justify us selling through agents

Can you recommend a particularly pushy agent in SE22 ?

or does anybody want to buy a flat ? - It's very nice.

[poppet27]

Desmond's

My personal experience of ED estate agents

- Foxton's: don't even consider. Underhand and massively over-inflated prices amongst many reasons.

- Haart: Really good sales agents, but as a buyer, pop in on a Saturday and you'll just see sullen-faced Saturday girls filing their nails. Potential buyers won't even get eye contact, let alone any normal customer service. The tumbleweed office on Lordship Lane is Haart's biggest downfall. They're otherwise fair.

- Winkworth: Like Haart, good, honest(!) agents who sell hard but won't bullshit buyers.

- Peddar: Don't have the same physical presence as the above 2 as their office is probably the wrong end of LL, but some good agents. They really push the appeal of networked offices in SE London. Fair valuation and more 'local feel'.

- Ludlow Thompson: Cheeky chappy Essex lads who seem to think selling houses is like market trading. Had no faith in their experience and didn't appreciate salesman techniques.

- KFH: Hugely over-inflated prices to start with, only for you to be forced to drop the price months later. One negotiator will drown you in his cologne and give you or potential buyers either hyperbolic scare-mongering or be downright ruthless and impersonal. Not a comfortable experience at all...

[Jeremy]

I think that's a pretty good summary of the agents, but at the end of the day, I don't think it makes an awful lots of difference if it's on at the right price. People will still see it online and book a viewing, regardless of who it's on with.

The problem with trying to sell a flat for 600K or so is that for similar money you can buy a small house.

[Otta]

poppet27 Wrote:

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> - Ludlow Thompson: Cheeky chappy Essex lads who

> seem to think selling houses is like market

> trading. Had no faith in their experience and

> didn't appreciate salesman techniques.

They haven't changed much then. In 2003 I went in there with two friends to sign a contract for a rental. Bloke's phone went so he held up a finger to shhh me, then said "go" in to the phone.

I wanted to slap him ion the face right there.

[LondonMix]

Personally I've had terrible issues with Winkworth. They were very dishonest about terms for a sale and only speaking directly to the seller made this clear. Both seller and us then gave them an earful.

I think Foxtons is dishonest based on my experience with them on a potential house purchase.

I found Haart to be honest but one of the guys there was a bit unfriendly which put me off.

I found KFH really disorganised (in 2013) as they missed more than one scheduled viewing which really isn't on. They can also tend to price things at the absolute max of what it can attain, which means their properties can sit on the market for a while waiting for the perfect buyer.

Ludlow- they lied to us telling us a flat was available that was actually under offer to someone else. We only figured it out speaking to the developer who was at the house one day as we were passing by. They'd asked the agent to continue marketing it but the agent didn't disclose what the situation was regarding the other offer. Their pricing seems fair though.

Peddar seemed okay though

Both times we bought (flat then house) the seller's agent was Bushell's who in my experience were both professional and honest. I really liked dealing with them. They are now longer in business though which I suppose suggests that's not the right approach to be a successful agent...

My tip would be to select and agent with lots of 3 bed flats on his books / recently under offer. They advantage of having people on your books as an agent is that you can bring them to see things they might not otherwise consider just looking at the online details.

A number of people I know ended up buying houses their agents suggested that initially they thought wouldn't work for one reason or another.

Good luck

poppet27 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Desmond's

>

> My personal experience of ED estate agents

>

> - Foxton's: don't even consider. Underhand and

> massively over-inflated prices amongst many

> reasons.

> - Haart: Really good sales agents, but as a buyer,

> pop in on a Saturday and you'll just see

> sullen-faced Saturday girls filing their nails.

> Potential buyers won't even get eye contact, let

> alone any normal customer service. The tumbleweed

> office on Lordship Lane is Haart's biggest

> downfall. They're otherwise fair.

> - Winkworth: Like Haart, good, honest(!) agents

> who sell hard but won't bullshit buyers.

> - Peddar: Don't have the same physical presence as

> the above 2 as their office is probably the wrong

> end of LL, but some good agents. They really push

> the appeal of networked offices in SE London. Fair

> valuation and more 'local feel'.

> - Ludlow Thompson: Cheeky chappy Essex lads who

> seem to think selling houses is like market

> trading. Had no faith in their experience and

> didn't appreciate salesman techniques.

> - KFH: Hugely over-inflated prices to start with,

> only for you to be forced to drop the price months

> later. One negotiator will drown you in his

> cologne and give you or potential buyers either

> hyperbolic scare-mongering or be downright

> ruthless and impersonal. Not a comfortable

> experience at all...

[edcam]

Big thumbs up for Winkworth from me. We've used them twice in the last 8 years and they were great. Hard working and honourable. I would trust them more than any other in ED.

[Earl Aelfheah]

Otta Wrote:

---------------

> They haven't changed much then. In 2003 I went in

> there with two friends to sign a contract for a

> rental. Bloke's phone went so he held up a finger

> to shhh me, then said "go" in to the phone.

That is comedy gold.