General Election 2015

[Henry_17]

Louisa,

Credit where it's due, well done for calling it correctly earlier in this thread.

[????]

UKIP has damaged Labour far more than the tories by reducing Labour's vote in the marginals quite significantly. The neglect of its core traditional vote has bitten Labour on the arse, something the party, social media and our very own Mr Carnell have been in denial about for years. Talking perpetually to yourselves in the Guardian and Twitter rather than the plebs completly removes any sense of reality of what people really think...

[????]

PS and wasn't Russell Brand a 'game changer'

[red devil]

Working class Labour supporters have a history of lurching to the right, most of the BNP's support at the height of their popularity came from disgruntled Labour voters, and most of those BNP voters have simply switched to UKIP...

[Louisa]

The Guardianista urban intelligentsia, Labour's minority who currently dictate policy for the whole party, and who I presume the likes of David_Carnell would loosely be associated? Are blind to the realities of the wider Labour movement. Just over a week ago I was accused of spouting nonsense, just the sort of dismissive unfounded opinion which has allowed the traditional membership to feel isolated and removed from the top table. The core left vote has been fragmenting for some time, and this election has seen more than ever that UKIP and the Greens to a lesser extent are seen as a viable alternative in the traditional heartlands of the north. I called the election, and I will now call the future of the Labour Party. If they do not listen to the membership in the heartlands, the UKIP protest vote will start to take seats off of them, and they will turn into a party that represents the socialist elite of London, and pretty much no-one else.

David_Carnell, you got it wrong about the popularity of Miliband and you got it wrong about the direction of the party.

Louisa.

[????]

Reply to RD

That's just a small part of it. This is bigger than that though - it's not just BNP voters they were only a force in a few constituencies this is accross the board.

If i was Labour i'd get out and talk to some other people than party members and 'progressives' and maybe some proper debating rtaher than shutting down/shreiking at people who don't hold the 'book of left' views. Social media this morning hasn't convinced me that's going to happen - it's all 'the plebs are idiots' or it's Murdoch's fault.

[Alex K]

Otta Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> grabot Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > A shame for James Barber. I wasn't a fan of

> his

> > early on. Seemed to be too much politicking

> from

> > him on the East Dulwich forum. But of late, to

> > me, he has shown himself to be a man of genuine

> > conviction and someone who has done a lot of

> good

> > in the local community.

>

>

> Agree with this completely.

Otta, Grabot -- yes indeed. James is a decent sort. I hope that he continues to contribute to making Southwark, and East Dulwich, better places.

[david_carnell]

Wow. The gloating started early.

I was wrong about the result. No argument there. As was just about every opinion poll.

It's too early to comment on where or what Labour should go/do next. Let the dust settle.

One interesting stat I've just seen though:

Con % share of vote in 2010: 36.6

Con % share of vote in 2015: 36.8

Lab % share of vote in 2010: 29.4

Lab % share of vote in 2015: 30.5

And yet look at the stark change in seats. It doesn't explain much but adds nuance and depth to the picture.

[FraddsMan]

Well I'm ?250.00 better off by backing my belief, in February, that the result would be a Cameron led majority.

So personally I'm very happy. I also consider the nation is, and will be, better off under a Conservative government.

My only niggle is that there must be a statesman like resolution of the UK Constitution (such as it is). Tempting as it would be to grant the SNP their demand for full fiscal autonomy - that would only lead to a bankrupt Scotland. More appropriate to my mind is to convene a constitutional forum, led by some 'political greybeards'(Jack Straw, William Hague, Menzies Campbell - or maybe reach further back) that can be both pragmatic and ignore party loyalties to debate and propose a new settlement.

What price USGB - United States of Great Britain under a federal model?

[Louisa]

Clutching at straws David_Carnell. The ruling party should have a fall in vote share after five years of unpopular coalition, and Labour should more than a shocking 1% ahead of the 2010 popular vote share.

Louisa.

[Otta]

TillieTrotter Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Otta Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > I was naive and just hadn't realised how much

> of

> > the Labour vote would go to UKIP. Assumed it

> would

> > all come from Tory voters because, well you

> know,

> > they're all @#$%&.

>

>

> I suppose now you just going to have to accept

> that its labour voters than are the @#$%&!

> 😁

Or the most desperate.

[Jeremy]

Otta Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Mick Mac Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > It's the economy stupid and most people have recognised that the

> > Tories have done a good job.

>

> Most people have swallowed the lie that they've done a good job.

Not really sure about this one. We don't really know what would have happened under a different leadership, we only have anecdotal evidence about what has happened in other countries. All we really know as that the Tories haven't screwed up the economy (modest growth, lower unemployment), although they have of course failed in their deficit reduction aims.

[uncleglen]

Hopefully the loss of labour voters will happen at local level too....

[DaveR]

"Try telling that to Ed Balls - UKIP has let tories win or especially hold plenty of marginals..that's the point"

I'm not convinced by this. It assumes that UKIP voters in the marginals are either defectors from Labour, or are Tory defectors who in the absence of UKIP would have voted Labour, and I don't buy that, particularly when Labour is perceived as being more pro-Europe and softer on immigration than the Tories. It's also not borne out by what little data I have seen from the Labour target seats, where generally the Tories have increased their poll at the expense of the Lib Dems.

[JohnL]

Can't believe my families home constituency of Gower is now Tory...

for the first time in 100 years apparently.

[hpsaucey]

Otta Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Mick Mac Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > It's the economy stupid and most people have

> recognised that the

> > Tories have done a good job.

>

> Most people have swallowed the lie that they've

> done a good job.

Have they? The smell of fear instigated about the possible affect of the SNP is palpable.

HP

[robbin]

Posted by Henry_17 Today, 12:41PM

Louisa,

Credit where it's due, well done for calling it correctly earlier in this thread.

Posted by Louisa March 20, 09:01AM

I predict the Libs will cling on to 25/35 seats and go in with the Tories again alongside some sort of confidence supply job with the DUP. Unless Labour can seriously pull ahead in the next month or so.

Louisa.

[maxxi]

The SNP must be well pissed off - finally get to the party, all set to boogie up a storm only to find their date's done a runner.

Now they'll have to sit on the edge of the dance floor for five years hoping some chinless tory twat* glances in their direction and throws them a crumb or two.

"Independence referendum?"

'No chance.'

"Voting reform??"

'No chance.'

"Er... what about some nicer offices for the SNP members?"

'We'll think about it.'

*I am of course using the accepted SNP definition of a right honourable member of HM Govt.

[????]

Been giggling at this, yes it's the Spectator but some pithy truths

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/05/the-biggest-loser-of-the-night-russell-brand/

[Otta]

He should check his facts though (lib dems had 62 not 61 in 2005). Not a big deal, but if you're going to be smarmy and gloat, you should try to be water tight (the writer, not you Quids).

[Louisa]

I feel most sorry for Vince Cable tonight. A great man, a great member of parliament, and a voice of reason. Sad to see him go.

Louisa.

[peckham_ryu]

Day 1 of the new Tory government and already the country is going to the dogs: it's 7pm and there's not a single loaf of olive bread to be found anywhere in East Dulwich.

Betrayed.

[Louisa]

*bites top lip until blood is drawn*

Louisa.

[Loz]

david_carnell Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> One interesting stat I've just seen though:

>

> Con % share of vote in 2010: 36.6 - Con % share of vote in 2015: 36.8

> Lab % share of vote in 2010: 29.4 - Lab % share of vote in 2015: 30.5

>

> And yet look at the stark change in seats. It doesn't explain much but adds nuance and depth to the picture.

That's mostly because the Labour share was all over the shop. Sharply down in Scotland, reasonably up in London, well up in LibDem seats and taken to wearing purple in the north.

[Henry_17]

It seems that either they were exceptionally unlucky or allocated resources exceptionally poorly given this.

Arguably Scotland was out of their hands but everywhere else? And this is with the Ashcroft data opened up which I believe both sides made a song and dance about in the media as a tool that should have assisted them.