How Much.. (have property proces really dropped in East D?)

[AG]

How much have property proces really dropped in East D

[Mick Mac]

Are you going to start this off with you opinion AG?

[AG]

I have no idea, probably 11%

[jim_the_chin]

it seems hard to tell as the few houses still on the market aren't really dropping their prices or selling.

[snorky]

aaaargh....my eyes.....my eyes...

[neilson99]

As a prospective buyer in an uncertain market, I have been tracking property for sale in ED since August last year. Many seem to be taken off the market rather than sell, and put into the rental market. Some examples of those that are still on; the two bed I was renting in Aura Court I was offered at ?350k at the time I was recently contacted by the landlord couple and offered it at ?295k, (would still have seen them clear ?20k on original purchase price before). There is a 1 bed on Glengarry that came on at ?230k and is now on at ?170K, so prices definitely coming down as far as I can see. Another anecdote to show that things probably won't get better any time soon; a friend with a 50% deposit for a property on the market at ?340k (i.e. ?170k deposit) was turned down for a mortgage because of an unknown CCJ from 13 years ago at University. If banks are that risk averse at lending to buyers, prices may have a long way to go yet before they stop falling.

[AG]

Where is glengarry?

[benmorg]

It's hard to answer this with hard data for east dulwich but I can offer an anecdotal. I pulled out of buying a small victorian half house on landcroft road about a year ago. It came onto the market in 2007 at ?385,000, then dropped asking price to ?375,000. As it needed a lot of work, I negotiated the price down to ?340,000. In the meantime, an identical house in better condition a couple of doors down the road completed in november 2007 for ?395,000.

After I pulled out I kept my eyes on the market while renting. The house I was going to buy for ?340,000 sold to another buyer. The price at completion in august 2008 was ?250,000. That's 35% off the original asking price and 26% off the previously agreed 2007 price.

house is no. 78 landcroft - completion details here:

http://www.nethouseprices.com/index.php?con=sold_prices_street_detail&street=LANDCROFT+ROAD&locality=SOUTHWARK&town=LONDON&cCode=EW&year=All&house_style=All&house_age=All&search_radius=&outcode=SE22&incode=9JP

as someone else has pointed out, as lot of the unsold stock has ended up being let. You could regard this as "pent-up supply" that will come back onto the market at some point in the future, which is one of the reasons to believe prices have further to fall.

[Kingy]

Bit wierd a CCJ normally comes off after 6 years - in fact the register only goes back that far

[pearcesa]

I somehow can't believe that ALL one bedroom flats that were originally marketed at ?230k around a year ago, are now worth ?170k, as clearly that is more than the average % that property has supposed to have fallen over the past year or so, as this is more than a 25% drop!!!! Either the property was severely overpriced when first marketed or the owner must be desperate to sell it now.

We've all seen the mass media headlines screaming about the dire % drop in house prices over the past year, but somehow I don't see it being over 25% in one year, maybe 25% in 18 months or so but this kind of scare-mongering is not going to do any of us any good when we've just entered a recession!

[SteveT]

I'm sick and tired of the constant whingeing and worrying about property proces...........

[Administrator]

SteveT

If you read the head post in the Residential section it reads "This section is purely a listing of properties, if you want to discuss or get advice on local properties please use an alternative relevant section."

If you have an issue with that please contact me directly and do not take a thread off topic. Rude man.

[lard]

pearcesa Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I somehow can't believe that ALL one bedroom flats

> that were originally marketed at ?230k around a

> year ago, are now worth ?170k, as clearly that is

> more than the average % that property has supposed

> to have fallen over the past year or so, as this

> is more than a 25% drop!!!! Either the property

> was severely overpriced when first marketed or the

> owner must be desperate to sell it now.

>

> We've all seen the mass media headlines screaming

> about the dire % drop in house prices over the

> past year, but somehow I don't see it being over

> 25% in one year, maybe 25% in 18 months or so but

> this kind of scare-mongering is not going to do

> any of us any good when we've just entered a

> recession!

Why is it scare-mongering? They have provided data to back up their point. You have provided your opinion only.

Obviously every house is different, and certain circumstances will mean bigger drops for some.

I've seen the data for flats being sold at 70% less than peak already (albeit in other areas of the country) - just because "you don't see it" doesn't mean it isn't happening.

[benmorg]

pearcesa Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

>

> We've all seen the mass media headlines screaming

> about the dire % drop in house prices over the

> past year, but somehow I don't see it being over

> 25% in one year, maybe 25% in 18 months or so but

> this kind of scare-mongering is not going to do

> any of us any good when we've just entered a

> recession!

It isn't over 25% in one year, it's more like 16%. But prices started falling much more than a year ago, remember. The peak was later summer 2007. Total fall since then is just over 20% according to nationwide and halifax. But this is just an average for the whole of the UK. Some properties/locations have fallen less, others more.

[AG]

I think it is circumstancial, if your desperate you will reduce your price more significantly. And a property is only worth what the buyer is willing to pay

I remeber looking for houses in summer of 2007 and one bed freehold flats were selling between 250-285, roughly at 5K a meter squared.

I know that a few leashold one bed flats have sold for 250 recently, but again it's just down to where I have been looking.

I was only curious as there is a lot of talk of prices crashing but wanted to know what was really ahppening in ED.

[Dr De Soto]

Three houses up the road were on the market early last year for between ?599k and ?625k. One eventually sold for ?525k, one sold for ?450k and one is now on the market for about ?450k so will presumably get less. So there is some evidence that homes are getting about 25% less than was being asked at the top of the market.

The absolute peak in the market came around September 2007, when another house in the road went on the market for a speculative ?720k. It didn't sell. It probably wouldn't get much more than ?530k today.

[AG]

Which Road was this ?

[seanmlow]

benmorg - that Landcroft deal was run by yours truly!

[Brendan]

I suppose the question is how much did the people who sold, buy the place for originally and how much the property they moved to cost/was reduced by.

[AG]

So property is really like shares, except you live in them

[benmorg]

seanmlow Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> benmorg - that Landcroft deal was run by yours

> truly!

Well done. And you can't blame me for pulling out at 340 if it went for 250! Deciding to rent for the year was the best decision I've ever made.

[ibilly99]

Crystal Palace Road tip top 3 bed room top grade refurb - marble work tops NEFF ovens etc - on market July 2007 ?725,000 eventually went on private sale for ?565,000 that's 22% - as others have said the market price is what the property sells for not what you think it's worth. I've said before there's no cavalry waiting for the party to begin again we're heading for /in a depression (IMF says so and the Economist) and we'll be lucky if prices don't fall 40% from peak.

[AG]

Best we all wait then and buy each other properties ;-)

[benmorg]

ibilly99 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Crystal Palace Road tip top 3 bed room top grade

> refurb - marble work tops NEFF ovens etc - on

> market July 2007 ?725,000 eventually went on

> private sale for ?565,000 that's 22% - as others

> have said the market price is what the property

> sells for not what you think it's worth. I've said

> before there's no cavalry waiting for the party to

> begin again we're heading for /in a depression

> (IMF says so and the Economist) and we'll be lucky

> if prices don't fall 40% from peak.

If you factor in the fall in sterling, house prices have already halved. The best hope now for overstretched homeowners is soaring inflation. It will wipe out the real value of debt (and savings). It's a genuine possibility, but so at the moment is deflation, which has the opposite effect, causing debts to expand in real terms. Nobody seems to know which way things will go - homeowners getting screwed or savers getting screwed. it's real knife-edge stuff.

[Mick Mac]

Benmorg - Why do we factor in a fall in sterling if we live in the uk?