Petition re Dulwich Hospital site

[Dulwich Born And Bred]

I'm furious that my signature used to support the Dulwich Harris seems to have been used to support the Nunhead one.

Isn't this misleading and criminal ? Since it's not what we offered support for ?

[samstopit]

Hi Dulwich B&B

The consultation events tomorrow are at:

Harris Girls? Academy East Dulwich

Homestall Road,

London,

SE22 0NR

One meeting is at 4.30pm and a second one is at 7.30pm.

I'm going to go to the second one so maybe see you there.

James I don't think those 250 families will feel abandoned since they didn't know they were signing up for a second school, they thought they were supporting one Harris primary school which has since opened and is soon to relocate to the police station site.

[Dulwich Born And Bred]

James, I don't have a short memory . I voted for you because you were proactive in getting things moving and that impressed me but naturally after voting I was very disappointed that my signature to support ONLY a Harris DULWICH primary has been abused because I did not request for another Harris in Dulwich. I think if you were to contact all the Dulwich parents who signed for your original campaign they would most likely share my views evidently by the voices of opposition against the Harris Nunhead primary that Tessa has supported us in not you .

Dulwich is sorted for Primaries. We do not need a school for Nunhead in Dulwich.

[Dulwich Born And Bred]

Sadly cannot make either due to lack of babysitter but happy to lend my support during the day or via petitions etc.

Samstopit Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Hi Dulwich B&B

>

> The consultation events tomorrow are at:

>

> Harris Girls? Academy East Dulwich

> Homestall Road,

> London,

> SE22 0NR

>

> One meeting is at 4.30pm and a second one is at

> 7.30pm.

>

> I'm going to go to the second one so maybe see you

> there.

>

> James I don't think those 250 families will feel

> abandoned since they didn't know they were signing

> up for a second school, they thought they were

> supporting one Harris primary school which has

> since opened and is soon to relocate to the police

> station site.

[samstopit]

Apologies - just double checked and the second consultation event tomorrow is at 7pm not 7.30.

http://www.harrisfederation.org.uk/26/future-projects/20/harris-primary-academy-nunhead

[mrs.lotte]

James you know perfectly well (or should do as its blindingly obvious) that is not what I am saying.

I am saying that people's signatures are being used for something they did not sign up for and, moreover, there is no need for another primary - you appear to suggest that as long as parents want it they should have it regardless of whether there are surplus places nearby. That would be a waste of public money and potentially compromise the space of a new secondary school.

[albert]

Delighted charter will be opening a second school on the hospital site. Good luck.

[simonethebeaver]

Southwark Council has sent an extremely robust response to Harris about the opening of the new school, which I think captures the feelings of everyone I've spoken to about it. Councillor Victoria Mills has led on it, as the Cabinet Member for Children and Schools.

[samstopit]

Great letter. I'll be at the consultation event this afternoon, hope to see lots of you there.

[James Barber]

The numbers of babies being born is stable at around 5,100 each year as per health authorities public.

Yet Southwark appears to be suggesting fewer kids going to schools - falling rolls.

I don't get a sense of a drastic drop in the local birth rate in wider Dulwich area - do you?

In 2013 5,089 births (from memory) but Southwark is predicting 3,755 going into reception. Where have 1,334 kids gone?

Assuming even number of boys and girls born. Health demographic profile shows 1/3 of girls leave the area between 0-4 years old and 5-9 yo but almost none leave for boys. Curious. So something like 17% of 0-4 yo leave the area but Southwark appear to be assuming 26% leave the area. We're talking about 510 missing reception kids per year or 17 classes or 8 schools.

What's wrong with my logic?

Weirdly Southwark officers no longer include birth graphs and data in their prediction reports.

[Belle]

Presumably some go private?

[candp]

James, what is your relationship with Harris - other than concerned local councillor of course. Do you have a day job that interacts with them? Or have they supported your campaign(s) in any way?

[Penguin68]

Presumably some go private?

Exactly - there are a significantly large number of private schools in the area offering nursery and primary schooling (that's partly why Louisa's dreaded blow-ins blow in in the first place, for the education offered). So 17 classes doesn't seem unreasonable - even though some of the schools do take those travelling in from further (but less so for primary than for secondary private education).

The problem is in Nunhead (and I am happy to accept that there is a problem) not in ED. This is more about empire than education, possibly on the 'build it and they will come' principle.

[henryb]

> Exactly - there are a significantly large number

> of private schools in the area offering nursery

> and primary schooling

I somehow doubt 25% of Southwark primary school children are privately educated.

I suppose there could a net outflow to schools in other boroughs but that should work both ways.

[James Barber]

candp,

I have no other relationship with Harris. They are are tory charity and I am a Lib Dem.

Hi belle, P68,

that did cross my mind. But I'm not aware of any expansion in private education locally to account for the same births but assumption of rapidly decreasing numbers attending local state schools.

I don't think local private school have anything like 510 reception places!

I genuinley don't feel comfortable with the numbers being produced by Southwark. I've seen volte face to politically produce reports last March. I remember bitterly the pain local families went through in 2009 when we got pupils numbers wrong and had to rush through emergency bulge classes.

[candp]

James am I right in thinking that the Tories and Lib Dems sometimes like to work together...in say a coalition? And you seem ever, ever so helpful to Harris.

Back on topic I will be objecting tonight. Harris should get on with building the school they already have a site for in ED before starting on this crazy plan.

[redjam]

HenryB - no one has suggested that 25% are privately educated, as approx 17% leave the area, using James's numbers. There are around 9% left who are not accounted for in state schools, by his own figures - 500-odd kids across the whole of Southwark. Which actually doesn't seem that impossible to me. Certainly not enough to make me question the accuracy of the council's data.

James - I don't understand why you are implying that Southwark Council are deliberately massaging the figures to make it look like we don't need another primary school? Are they 'evil'? Or perhaps, you know, they're right and you're wrong?

[confusedbyitall]

Candp....like very much!!!

"James am I right in thinking that the Tories and Lib Dems sometimes like to work together...in say a coalition? And you seem ever, ever so helpful to Harris."

I don't think we should be muddying/confusing the real topic by discussing birth rates.

Victoria Mills graph says it all, this area is growing yes but the need is not primary but secondary...there has always been the need for a good quality school- since I have been here anyway - nearly 20 years!

[Otta]

candp Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> James am I right in thinking that the Tories and

> Lib Dems sometimes like to work together...in say

> a coalition?

Not on a local Councillor level, that's just ridiculous.

But I also wish Harris would piss off having already opened one school recently in the area.

[Dulwich Born And Bred]

Fabulous letter . If Harris goes ahead then we will all know something is amiss!

simonethebeaver Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Southwark Council has sent an extremely robust

> response to Harris about the opening of the new

> school, which I think captures the feelings of

> everyone I've spoken to about it. Councillor

> Victoria Mills has led on it, as the Cabinet

> Member for Children and Schools.

[bonaome]

My theory is that 5-10 years ago lots of young pre-family people/folks with very young kids moved in and promptly set about producing an unexpected demand for primary school places. That bulge in the number of primary aged kids will pass as those kids whose parents moved in 5-10 years ago get older. They won't be replaced at the same rate as the area is now unaffordable to the same sorts of family 10 years down the line - so demand for primary school places will fall. Those ED baby-boomers would once have been expected to move out of London for secondary school, but now they're more likely to stay (London's schools are better than they used to be and the gap between housing costs in London vs the home counties isn't as attractive as it once was).

Probably all sorts of holes in my theory - but it does accurately describe my experience and the experience of very many families I know.

[LondonMix]

The best way to compare is to look at birth rates in 2009 vs rolls in 2014 and birth rates this year. Any other comparison doesn't make sense.

[James Barber]

Hi redjam,

That's 510 kids per year group are missing from Southwark pupil planning for primary schools.

I very much doubt a second Harris primary school will happen in East Dulwich. Which is good seeing their no longer appears to be the parental support for it.

But I still fear we won't have enough primary school places.

Oh and I regret it make no difference to how much space the EFA buy for the secondary school whether a primary school is built at the hospital or not. It should but it won't. The EFA has apparently already decided how much land will be allocated.

17,000m2 land has been released for my Right to Contest for a new secondary school. The health people say they need 7,000-9,000m2 leaving 2,300-4,300m2 unaccounted for. If it isn't used for primary school it will be housing.

Normally the suburban density would be 200-350 habitable rooms per hectare. But most developers will try pushing this into the urban zone of 200-750 rooms per hectare or about 60-100 new homes.

If the EFA choose to take less land the number of homes will rise commensurately. I suspect we'll have a fight on our hands to get the max. land from the EFA.

[LondonMix]

James as you ignored my suggestion, I decided to look for myself and unsurprisingly it proves that Southwark's pupil planning program is more than adequate.

In 2009, Southwark had 4,873 births. http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2010/may/25/birth-rate-statistics-england-wales

Those children born in 2009 make up the 2014 reception roll. Southwark only had 3,474 reception pupils enrolled in 2014 despite nearly 4,900 births in 2009. More importantly, there were 3,770 places available (a surplus of almost 300 places).

If there were only 5,089 births in Southward in 2013 (vs 4,873 in 2009), that would suggest that their shouldn't be much more need for reception places in 2018 than there was in 2014 and that the pipeline of new primary schools planned will more than address the rather modest demographic increase borough wide.

The local projections of need are of course separate to borough wide birth statistics but your earlier statement suggesting that Southwark is missing 500 places for pupils seems wildly inaccurate and baseless.

[savage]

Unfortunately I was unable to attend either if today's Harris Primary consultations. Can somebody update us to what happened?

Kate