Has the ED housing market reached the bottom yet ( II )

[snorky]

PS - anyone noticed how empty foxytons is at the minute - the fat sky news screen vomiting regurgitated tales of house woe behind the front desk may not have been the best idea - the operations are resembles an estate agent version of a Detriot Suburb - i.e lots and lots of space that no one seems to occupy - rather apt given Foxys recent venture into the US market

[Jeremy]

I don't know who buys those new-build flats. They're not cheap, and decrease in value straight away. Build quality is often questionable, and are invariably built in a "contemporary" style which will look tacky and dated very soon.

That Foxtons office has always looked empty ever since it materialised... I wonder how many of the drinks in their glass fronted fridges have been there since 2007.

[Grotty]

i was woken up last week by a foxtons agent (having made the mistake of wandering in there one summer afternoon to see what they could offer me and passing on my details) - only to be warned that if i remained a sheep and followed the rest of the population into waiting until next year to buy that i could end up like those sheep in turkey did i.e. fall off a cliff and die.

[karter]

I have asked this before but nobody answered, are people still receiving Foxton's magazine 'Welcome to your area' or have Foxtons given up with producing this?

[MrBen]

I love how some posters on this thread are coming out with their new predictions about when the market will bottom out and how far it will fall. Anyone can repeat whatever they have just read in the sunday papers. They don't know either. I'm happy to admit I was wrong. Back in Feb I predicted a 15% fall max - it's already done about 20 and that's assuming you can even find a buyer. With no market it's hard to even gauge a price.

But strangely my mortgage is cheaper than ever before. Is that just me or is there anyone else out there who is also actually better off as a result of this?

[Mick Mac]

I think now is a good time to buy in east dulwich - I think in the long term its on the rise as a semi desirable area. lots of propoerty is on the market and if I were buying now I'd view lots, get a shortlist of 5-10 and offer 15-20% below the asking price and see if any of the shortlist are ready to sell, you could get a long term bargain if you are willing to stay put and treat it as a home for a while, whilst ED hopefully cointinues to improve. I've been here for 7 years and have seen it diversify / improve a lot - although i'm beginning to feel a bit old in some of the pubs!

More buyers may come onto the market in the new year as mortgage rates continue to fall - some people have safe jobs and they may begin to see it as a buying opportunity, with falling mortgage rates and falling prices, so I don't think there will be a shortage of buyers for more than 12 months. I'd suggest buying now, discounting enough to ensure you have already covered 2009 price falls.

Good luck if you are buying.(tu)

[lard]

Actual sale prices on the whole have already moved past 15-20% off asking price, so it wouldn't be much of a bargain. In fact, it would probably be overpaying at today's prices alone, and that is not even factoring in the consensus view on next year.

But hey you know what they say about opinions...

[Mick Mac]

Thats 15-20% off current asking prices - which are already 15% lower than last year (apparently). I did say long term bargain.

[indiepanda]

MrBen Wrote:

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> But strangely my mortgage is cheaper than ever

> before. Is that just me or is there anyone else

> out there who is also actually better off as a

> result of this?

Hardly "strange" for your mortgage to have got cheaper when base rates have dropped... surely everyone on a tracker should have received full benefit of the cut in interest rates, and those on variable should have seen a good drop too? Just those tied into fixed rates who can't remortgage (e.g. because LTV wouldn't be acceptable because house price has dropped too far) who won't have benefited.

Course, inflation has been pretty high, so not a given that mortgage drops will have been worth more than enough to offset impact of higher fuel and food bills etc.

As for the price drops, ever since I've moved up to London (18 months ago) people have been encouraging me to buy - especially since market started falling. I was never convinced, it's like people have forgotton how long the market took to bottom out and recover last time. I didn't need someone in the Sunday Times to tell me people were being overly optimistic, history does that.

[Keef]

The problem will be getting first time buyers. I have just signed up to a 3 year 6.59 fixed rate mortgage, which I can just about afford. It was the cheapest option believe it or not! It's been a kick in the bum for me, had I just filled that form in a couple of days earlier I would've been on a tracker!

[lard]

Mick Mac Wrote:

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> Thats 15-20% off current asking prices - which are

> already 15% lower than last year (apparently). I

> did say long term bargain.

You'll find that many sellers are still "holding on" to their original estimate.

I would think there is a gulf of about 30% between seller estimation and actual value in some cases.

[AcedOut]

City job loss League Table

[Mick Mac]

I understand the link between this job loss table and the current topic - but I have to say the table is rather worrying in its own right especially if you work in the financial sector.

[AcedOut]

Huge job losses in the financial sector and lack of bonuses will have a pretty large impact on property prices, especially in London.

Traditionally, bonuses have been deposits on homes. These are going to be virtually non-existent at year end.

It's a very worrying table. I think the figures are global numbers, but it's still hitting London extremely hard.

[Mick Mac]

Is this a table of London job losses?

[jayes]

No, not exclusively London, although a large portion of those being reported are job losses in the city.

[AcedOut]

The Goldman figure for London was around 3000 people. This wasn't really reported at all, but it happened a couple of weeks ago. Around 14% in IT were allegedly axed.

[????]

Strip away all those bonuses, minus a great deal of those jobs which were on high bonuses but were also on high basic, reduce much of the highly paid support services to the City, say legal, consulting nd IT to name a few....I reckon a 3-4 bedroom in SE22 will be on the market for ?300-?350k in 18 months. If you've bought in the last 4 years or so with less than 10% deposit prepare for negative equity,

[AcedOut]

3-4 bed house for around 350-400k sounds about right to me. I already had an offer accepted at ?475k for a 4-bed (which I later dropped), so not far to go...

[matthew123]

If you can still afford ?475K, I'd be thinking more bigger house and/or better location.

[Mick Mac]

In that case we are back to early 2006 prices for east dulwich - I was looking at 3/4 beds then and they were 450-475. I don't think however we will go much lower. I'm old enough to remember the early 1990s crash and I think that crash was exceptional. I think this one will be slow for a year or two but if you need a house now, buy it now and you will be well placed when things pick up. I don't think we will see a repeat of the 6-7 year slump of the 1990s.

I think you could do a lot worse than buying in ed also.

[GlumPuppy]

AcedOut Wrote:

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> City job loss League Table

That table is just banks. It doesn't include any of the City law firms, nearly all of which are laying off staff, but with no announcements. I work in a mid size firm and about 20 people have gone in the last 10 days. It's happening everywhere and the common wisdom is that they are currently "shedding" the staff they consider most expendable, but with more to go in the new year. A lot of the private equity funds and hedge funds have had up to 75% of their funds withdrawn by investors - the worst of it hasn't hit yet because the funds are desperately trying to change their rules to delay people taking the remaining loot out. By the end of next spring it looks like it is going to be pretty grim because there just won't be any work left for a lot of the lawyers to do - except the ones that specialise in "restructuring".

[Jeremy]

Well there are 3 bed terraces on the market now for just over the 400k mark... although they probably need a bit of work. So if we can expect another 15% drop, ?350k doesn't sound too unrealistic. I can't see it going much below that though, as returns may start becoming attractive for by-to-let investors again.

[AcedOut]

matthew123 Wrote:

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> If you can still afford ?475K, I'd be thinking

> more bigger house and/or better location.

Better than East Dulwich? Surely not! Maybe a studio flat in South Ken? Been there, got the t-shirt....

[Edited, as I'm tired and can't spell]

[AcedOut]

GlumPuppy - Indeed. I have a city lawyer friend who lost her job a couple of weeks ago amongst others. There are so many companies laying off at the moment and it doesn't seem to make the news. The proverbial dog-mess still hasn't hit the fan yet...

Still, I see this recession as opportunity. As has been said, when everyone else starts buying, it's almost too late. When things start improving, I think it could move quite fast.