Has the ED housing market reached the bottom yet ( II )

[Mick Mac]

Lizziedjango Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

>

> Incidentally, you can tap in a postcode and see

> what a property is worth now on this website. I

> have been quite nosy and looked up several friends

> and colleagues' house and flat prices.

> http://www.zoopla.co.uk/

I tried this "Zoopla" and I the initial value attributed to my home was significantly lower than I would expect. In fact it was not much higher than I paid in 2006. However if you "refine the estimate" (add number of bedrooms, condition etc) the value can rise and in my case was then 15% higher than the first estimate, so I think the inital value the website gives is a low estimate, your friends houses, are hopefully worth quite a bit more than the website shows assuming they are in good condition etc. But nevertheless its worth a look.

Incidentally, I was looking at rightmove recently and a 5 bed in Shepherds Bush seems to be worth twice as much as the equivalent property in ED (not a scientific search) - I found that strange given that when I have been to Shapherds Bush it seemed fairly ordinary. I think ED will pick up a lot the next time we are in an era of rising property prices - and even if it does not I have pretty much settled here for the forseaable future as ED seems to have all I need and it seems to be continuing to improve and attract more young professionals. [although with young children the schools do leave room for improvement and despite some posts implying that it not important it remains a key reason why some parents leave the area - unfortunatley - and its not a middle class ideal to want the best schools for your kids, as has also been mooted, but in fact all parents, regardless of class or background should feel that their childrens education is important]

[red devil]

Zoopla shouldn't be taken too seriously, I checked out a flat I own and after 'refining their estimate' mangaged to add ?35k to the price by confirming it had full central heating and wood floors! Also noticed that the upstairs flat which has an identical layout with the addition of a small box room above the entrance staircase was worth ?50k less!...the best indicator of current values is still the estate agent windows, not ifs, buts and maybes...

[Jeremy]

Yeah, that Zoopla looks like an interesting site, but I wouldn't take it seriously.

Keeping an eye on estate agents' asking prices is useful, but I'm sure sellers are having to take big reductions on the asking price at the moment... sites like www.houseprices.co.uk are always useful.

[indiepanda]

I looked at the value of my last house before I moved to London on Zoopla, and was amused to see that the 5 houses that were the same as mine had estimates of current value which from lowest to highest had a 70k variance.

Given we are talking about houses that were all built to the exact same design by the same builder in 2000, this difference is impossible to justify - no real scope for anyone to have added masses of value since - the gardens were too small for extentions etc, all had double glazing etc, so it's just a case of how well decorated they are, how nice the garden is and who has put new carpet down - struggle to justify more than about 5k for that

It might be a reliable way of finding out what properties sold for, but I think the estimates are weak at best

[Lizziedjango]

I don't think the Zoopla estimates are 'weak at best', they seem to pretty much cover the current costs of local properties and are close to estate agents' predictions too. Incidentally, a property is only worth what people are prepared to pay for it...and there certainly isn't much selling locally at the moment.

I hope Jeremey is right and that local terraced Victorian houses don't drop below ?300K, but I fear they will.

Rental prices are already down. I am gobsmacked to see 1-2 bed flats being advertised for between ?1300-1500 a month. The owners will be lucky to get that. I've seen massive (and rather beautiful) 4 bed houses being rented out for ?294 a week (or ?1274 a month) just up Forest hill Rd in between ED and Forest Hill/Honor Oak way.

I certainly wish local property prices weren't dropping like stones - but I have it on very good authority that they are. We are obviously living through the worst economic crisis, and it is very likely that prices will come down a good 50% further. Most financial experts have predicted further drops of between 30-50% nationwide, with London being hit hardest as our prices had increased the most.

I wish it wasn't so. I am desperate to get shot of my house and move out of London - but I'll be lucky to get renters at this rate. However, I do have a very low mortgage so could, and will probably have to, drop the rent to around ?1000 a month (for a 3 bed house!!!). :(

[rachel4]

The BBC has just posted a story that London house prices fell 15.9% in 2008 ...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7812108.stm

[Zaardvark]

Hi,

This story is about uk house prices. Finding the nationwide's figures for Greater London requires using a tool on their website:

"Results:-

A property located in Greater London which was valued at ?100000 in Q4 of 2007, would be worth approximately ?84929 in Q4 of 2008.

This is equivalent to a change of -15.07%."

and it is the same if you put 500k as the base price

"Results:-

A property located in Greater London which was valued at ?500000 in Q4 of 2007, would be worth approximately ?424645 in Q4 of 2008.

This is equivalent to a change of -15.07%."

best

Z

[Mick Mac]

Yes, lets hope we all know how to calculate 15%.

[matthew123]

I saw a report on BBC London today that European investors are taking advantage of price reductions and the weakness of the pound in buying London properties.

Obviously I'm biased as a home owner but if I was looking... I'd probably step up my property search so when the market does turn (6 months, 12 months whenever) I am able to react quickly in what will probably be some volatile pricing before they accelerate back out of control. As I said I don't know when it will turn.. but when it does I think particularly in desirable London locations (not sh!t holes) it will be manic when you consider there are some gigantic deposits out there ready to pounce at first sign of the 'good times' returning.

[Josh]

Evening Standard: "London House Prices Crash"

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23612169-details/London+house+prices+crash/article.do

[SteveT]

red devil wrote:- the best indicator of current values is still the estate agent windows.

The best indicator remains the same as always, it is what someone will pay you for it, and that is determined by how quickly you need to move house.

[ed_pete]

Headline figures for the UK as a whole are relatively meaningless because of huge regional variations. The same applies to the London wide numbers.

The closest the Nationwide figures get to SE22 is Southwark as a whole, which again, given the size of the borough and different types of property are only vaguely representative and show average prices down 8%.

[Josh]

ed_pete Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Headline figures for the UK as a whole are

> relatively meaningless because of huge regional

> variations. The same applies to the London wide

> numbers.

> The closest the Nationwide figures get to SE22 is

> Southwark as a whole, which again, given the size

> of the borough and different types of property are

> only vaguely representative and show average

> prices down 8%.

I'm not sure you're right... The regional variations in the London figures are mostly just "noise" in the data caused by looking at small sample sizes. In reality London functions as two main markets: prime (mostly central) London, where v. expensive property sells to internationally wealthy; and the rest of London, which is much closer to the UK average. Southwark is probably down by about the London average or the UK average.

[red devil]

SteveT Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> red devil wrote:- the best indicator of current

> values is still the estate agent windows.

>

>

>

>

> The best indicator remains the same as always, it

> is what someone will pay you for it, and that is

> determined by how quickly you need to move house.

I was talking about general values not one-off scenarios, who in their right mind would make an offer on a property without first researching local values, you need to do some homework even before making a 'cheeky offer' to a distressed seller, or else how would you know you were making a 'cheeky offer'?...

[Josh]

estate agents' windows are a great guide to asking prices, but during a crash, asking prices and actual sale prices are two very very different things.

[Zaardvark]

Mick

I put in the different prices as some (such as government figures) break down prices changes by type of house, which equates to cost, and these can be different. The quotes are also there to indicate where I was quoting from the nationwide's website calulator.

Can't say I appreciated your immediate sarcastic response.

Z.

Re: Has the ED housing market reached the bottom yet ( II )

Posted by: rachel4 Today, 11:49AM

The BBC has just posted a story that London house prices fell 15.9% in 2008 ...

[news.bbc.co.uk]

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Re: Has the ED housing market reached the bottom yet ( II )

Posted by: Zaardvark Today, 12:50PM

Hi,

This story is about uk house prices. Finding the nationwide's figures for Greater London requires using a tool on their website:

"Results:-

A property located in Greater London which was valued at ?100000 in Q4 of 2007, would be worth approximately ?84929 in Q4 of 2008.

This is equivalent to a change of -15.07%."

and it is the same if you put 500k as the base price

"Results:-

A property located in Greater London which was valued at ?500000 in Q4 of 2007, would be worth approximately ?424645 in Q4 of 2008.

This is equivalent to a change of -15.07%."

best

Z

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Re: Has the ED housing market reached the bottom yet ( II )

Posted by: Mick Mac Today, 02:16PM

Yes, lets hope we all know how to calculate 15%.

Edited to add history so people can see what I am talking about and to correct a mistake.

[Huguenot]

Lol

I think Mick was just teasing you for your surfeit of good advice Z, you shouldn't take offence ;-)

[Zaardvark]

Fair enuf. Looks like I missed the point about someone missing the point....

Best

Z

[Mick Mac]

Yes - my apologies - just a little joke.

[okcomputa]

Why on earth would anyone "pounce" back into something that was so obviously a hysterical, debt fueled asset price bubble? Just as everyone thought it was a good ideea to buy any old internet sh*te tech stock a while back, many folk still seem to think that buying and seliing houses from eachother will free them from work and let them swill mojitos next to pool for the rest of their lives. Forget it.

[Jeremy]

okcomputa - Yes, I agree it will be a long time before anyone in their right mind starts speculating in property again, trying to make an easy profit from price rises.

But at this rate, the time will come when rental yields will make buy-to-let worthwhile again. If/when that happens, investors *will* start buying.

[EDOldie]

I think the interesting thing here is not when the market will change but why? My guess is that some people will want to buy as they see bricks and mortar as a safer haven for their money than the financial system and you can live in a property but not a bank. On the other side of the coin sellers may consider this not the best time to sell and be reluctant to put property on the market. This could lead to a shortage of supply and a, however unbelievable at the moment, rise in prices.

There is some evidence to bear this out. During the last major, er, house price correction, between 1988 - 1995 house prices in SE22 only went down by 2.2% compared to SE23 -11.6% and SE15 a massive -22.3%. Interestingly, and some of you will feel very smug indeed, prices in SE24 during the same period went up by 18.1% and in SE21 by 28%.

This was a pattern repeated over the whole of London where property in (sorry) 'better' areas actually went up in value and property in the 'poorer' areas went down. The extreme examples being SW3 (Chelsea) +59.8% and E16 (North Woolwich) -37.9%. These figures all relate to the same period '88-'95.

[Mick Mac]

EdOldie - that is very interesting and shows that info on UK or even London prices is not really specific enough to predict what will happen to ED property.

I think the 1990 property crash took an extraordinarily long time to come back - I think this one will bounce back quicker. I would be interested in buying into property (ie a bigger family home) at the moment if the lending that was available was as good as my existing mortgage but unfortunatley it is not.

I'm not sure the SE21 will fare so well this time, prices are obviously coming down in key SE21 roads, although these could bouce back first, and perhaps in 1995 they had already started to bounce back, whereas the other postcodes had not.

I for one am happy to have my home in SE22 and think its prospects are good.

[EDOldie]

I don't think you can get a lot more specific than individual post codes, can you? I think history repeats itself and when we do get out of this almightly mess this dreadful govt. has led us into it's the top end of the market that will bounce back quickest of all. I think anyone living in SE22, including myself, that owns their own house should be fine and better off than a lot of people in London and the UK more generally.

[Mick Mac]

Yep - lets hope so.