Has the housing market in ED reached its bottom yet?

[Brendan]

Some may say that if anything steadily increases at a rate significantly higher than inflation for a long period of time something is going to go tits up eventually.

[AcedOut]

They can still pay a higher coupon on the Gilts without raising the BoE rate though...

[Brendan]

And sherbet balls gather terribly at the seams.

[Ted Max]

How's the international finance arse looking?

[lard]

local estate agent Wrote:

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> A mix of enquiries really, alot from experienced

> investors who know that house prices have come

> down, and that they can get themselves a

> investment property at a good price..

>

> The housing market gets affected in different

> ways, East Dulwich and Dulwich Village prices seem

> to get aafected less as opposed to areas in

> Peckham, Camberwell and Forest Hill etc...

>

> ED is a very popular area, and a lot of people

> that could only afford FH for example now realise

> they can actually afford ED, so are looking to get

> somewhere now whilst there is a good choice of

> property at a slightly lower price..

Good to have someone in the thread seeing first hand the drop in prices.

How much have prices already come down then in your opinion?

eg what kind of percentage in "less affected" East Dulwich and what kind of percentage in more affected Peckham etc?

Just for our interest, like.

[AcedOut]

Take a look on Right Move sell prices. All the data is out there.

[local estate agent]

benmorg Wrote:

are you sure enquiries are going up

> "massively" or are you just seeing the usual

> september activity after the end of the summer

> lull?

It is more than likely the September activity, just nice to see people viewing and offering again, despite everyones comments on here, there is definately more confidence in the buyers at the moment (why this is.... i have no idea!!)

[AcedOut]

Dead cat bounce affects all markets!

[lard]

AcedOut Wrote:

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> Take a look on Right Move sell prices. All the

> data is out there.

Not quite.

The land registry is normally a few months late.

Our estate agent friend could give an accurate more up to date figure, especially in regards to areas dropping more than others (which is what he referred to in his post)

[AcedOut]

True, there is a lag. All depends on your trust of estate agents though.

[local estate agent]

I have no reason to make things up in this forum, cos no one knows where or who I work for.... anything i write in here is as accurate as i can be.

Land registry is your best bet... but true is does take time to update.. but, then so does Rightmove (re-sale prices)

Areas such as Forest Hill, Peckham Rye, and Nunhead etc have seen prices come down far more than East Dulwich...

We are selling properties at the same price as what we were last year in most cases.

Some cases (depending on the desparation of the Vendor) have dropped much further, but only on the proviso they can get the money reduced off there onward purchase (usually buying outside of London, where prices are dropping more).

[AcedOut]

LEA - That looks like an honest overview, so thanks for sharing.

[lard]

Same prices as last year?? That means there has been no reduction?? I'm confused.

Also how does that work with the Forest Hill example you mentioned earlier..where you said people who thought they could afford Forest Hill can now afford East Dulwich??

Roughly in percentage terms as a general rule what are we looking at for the different areas? eg. forest hill 15% off peak, East Dulwich 10% off peak etc?

[macroban]

> Land registry is your best bet...

NOT!

The Land Registry statistics only take account of completion price changes where there has been a second sale since the database was inaugurated.

[AcedOut]

completion price changes?

[macroban]

identifiable matched pairs, providing the basis for the repeat-sales regression analysis

[benmorg]

local estate agent Wrote:

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> We are selling properties at the same price as

> what we were last year in most cases.

> Some cases (depending on the desparation of the

> Vendor) have dropped much further, but only on the

> proviso they can get the money reduced off there

> onward purchase (usually buying outside of London,

> where prices are dropping more).

what do you mean by "last year" - early 2007 or late 2007? prices changed a hell of a lot in east dulwich over 2007, up 20% in some cases. How are prices now compared to peak in october last year? I've seen major reductions in asking prices, many of which are below completion prices last year. Yet according to hometrack, buyers in SE22 are paying only 88% of asking prices at the moment, so actual sale prices must be well below 2007 peak prices.

[benmorg]

local estate agent Wrote:

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> I have no reason to make things up in this forum,

> cos no one knows where or who I work for....

at the risk of causing unintended offence, I should point out you have a vested interest in talking up the local market. The more people buy properties, the more money you make on commission.

As I've heard contradictory reports of the market from an EA in a better part of london, I reserve the right to remain skeptical.

[Dr De Soto]

Just noticed 295 Underhill is for sale, asking price ?450,000 so presumably they'll be lucky to get ?425. Paid ?399k for it in 2003. So, in that case at least (a newbuild), it's a case of nearly back to 2003 prices, not 2007 prices.

[Huguenot]

Can we go short on property? Perhaps I could sell a house now on the basis that by the time we complete I'll be able to get the property at a cheaper price than the one agreed at the exchange?

[karter]

nice one Hugue, if that were the case investors would be making lots of money in this time....:)

[Jeremy]

Dr De Soto - I wouldn't take newbuilds as indicative of the area, as they don't hold value as well as period properties. By their very nature, they lose their value when they are no longer "new".

[AcedOut]

Yes, you can short property actually. Have a look at spread betting against the house price index, or even through UK listed warrants (buying puts).

As for agents trying to increase the prices through talking-up the market, it's probably more in their favour JUST TO SELL! A good strategy in the current climate would actually be to talk the vendor into dropping the price to get a quicker sell. Ok, so they loose a little commission, but at least the liquidity remains high. Better to have some commission than none at all. For an agent on 1.5%, a ?10,000 drop in price is only costing them ?150. If the place is worth ?250,000 then that goes from ?3750 to ?3600, or a 4% drop in commission. It will hurt them, but better than to loose out to another agent.

[local estate agent]

to be fair, that is what we are concentrating at the moment.

Reduce those prices!!! Sell more!!!

[lozzyloz]

Local Estate Agent what type of properties are selling best at the moment? Which categories are worst and least affected in your opinion?