Is Rachel Reeves becoming the new Liz Truss?

[Spartacus]

4 hours ago, Sephiroth said:

and were people like you worried about "cutting hiring, prices going up and new business not starting" under the last govt or as a result of brexit

I had to look it up but 4.1 million people signed a petition for second brexit referendum if there was a narrow margin.  The data is from 2017 so there may be bigger petitions since.  

https://www.itv.com/news/2017-01-31/petitions-what-are-the-10-most-signed-and-what-have-they-achieved

[Sephiroth]

13 minutes ago, Rockets said:

Sephiroth, where is the data for non-UK people? Thanks

The 2 ways I checked (and I'm open to correction on this - I could be wrong)

1 - the  breakdown by county 

https://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=700143

doesn't appear to match the headline number in any close way

 

2 = The petition data link

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/700143.json

seems to have a suspiciously high number of non UK entries

 

(although this ABOUT section may be relevant as well

The data shows the number of people who have signed the petition by country as well as in the constituency of each Member of Parliament. This data is available for all petitions on the site. It is not a list of people who have signed the petition. The only name that is shared on the site is that of the petition creator.)

 

 

10 minutes ago, jazzer said:

Sephiroth, obviously you must be having difficulty translating the meaning of the words below, These clauses remain law today, and provided the basis for important principles in English law developed in the fourteenth through to the seventeenth century, and which were exported to America and other English-speaking countries. Their phrasing, ‘to no one' and ‘no free man' gave these provisions a universal quality that is still applicable today in a way that many of the clauses relating specifically to feudal custom are not

Never mind, keep on ignoring the facts 

The only one here burying their head in the sand seems to be you, with your total unwillingness to accept what a disaster Liebour have turned out to be after 120 days in Office, making themselves a one term Govt. Bet you think the sun shines out of his backside. Because whenever an election happens they will NEVER EVER be trusted ever again or ever get back into Govt for many, many years after the dictatorship we have been placed under. 

Reeves was giving a speech at the CBI earlier today, bet that went well for her, NOT. 

can someone else try because I'm done with this guy

Edited 3 hours ago by Sephiroth

[ianr]

I've just looked at https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/700143.json.

Current "signature_count" entries:

In header section, at line 13 (ie total): 2178055

followed by alphabetically ordered lists, the whole country ones first, including

"United Kingdom" 2162127 ;

then constituencies.

So about sixteen thousand non-UK ones, ~0.7% of the total.

Addendum 25/11 15:53

It may be that not everyone has access to the representation of the data in the format that I've been describing (one of two options offered me by Firefox browser): see my interchange with Sephiroth below.  I see that it comes thanks to a JSON file viewer, a user-friendly feature that's been built-in to Firefox for some time.  Possibly other browsers may have followed on, or have add-ons or extensions available; I afraid I don't know.

 

Edited 1 hour ago by ianr
Prior ignorance remedied

[Sephiroth]

16 minutes ago, ianr said:

I've just looked at https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/700143.json.

Current "signature_count" entries:

"open" 2178055 (ie all)  [at line 12]

followed by alphabetically ordered lists, the whole country ones first, including

"United Kingdom" 2162127 ;

then constituencies.

 

 

 

hmmm - I can see the open state field

but if I look at the data.attributes.signature_by_country fields I get most coming from USA 

The constituencies are all 2million+ UK constituencies

But I can't link the sig by country to the constituency in most cases

16 minutes ago, ianr said:

I've just looked at https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/700143.json.

Current "signature_count" entries:

"open" 2178055 (ie all)  [at line 12]

followed by alphabetically ordered lists, the whole country ones first, including

"United Kingdom" 2162127 ;

then constituencies.

 

nope you are correct - I misplaced a variable and was looking at why USA was so high - when the Uk was obvious answer

 

Ok - so my general point that a lot of these sigs are coming from outside UK is incorrect. My bad. Cheers Ian

(Reform got 4 million+ votes so we could expect a similar number to sign petition maybe)

Edited 2 hours ago by Sephiroth

[malumbu]

Around 15% voted right and far right at the last election in our constituency.  Green had a good vote, some no doubt being a protest, and if it had been tighter many would have kept with Labour.  So not a lot around here would agree with some of the more extreme views on this thread.

[jazzer]

Not extreme views on this thread, just hard to swallow for some, hey Sephiroth

[Rockets]

Who is the person that signed it from South Georgia Islands! 😉

I think the distribution of non-UK looks as you would expect on the basis of UK ex-pats living abroad but the only one that stood out was the 31 responses from China and I did wonder whether UK government websites would be readily accessible in China - although the 422 responses from Hong Kong may validate that they must be!

Whatever the true situation the fact that this petition is getting such traction suggests the government are struggling to cut through - which they are. But clearly, there will not be an election for many years yet, but I think this does go to show that electorates (not only in the UK) are very impatient right now and that is a massive risk to any party in power and if, like Labour, you get elected on the change ticket and you affect change that the majority think help them or the country then you're in for a really, really rough ride.

Labour is really struggling to sell it's vision and get people on the journey with them and for every story we are going to read about pensioners not able to heat their homes or farmers protesting about inheritance tax then the worse it will become. Next we are going to start hearing about the impact of the budget on small (and big) businesses and that will likely impact growth and our ability to control inflation and if that does happen then Rachel Reeves has a big problem on her hands (and Keir is likely to start looking for a scapegoat).

[ianr]

Sephiroth

I've slightly amended my above post btw, though numbers stay the same. 

I've just realised that I was looking at the plain English text version (though labelled JSON as a page-top option within Firefox).  Your post alerted me to the fact that I'm also offered a 'raw data' version, which I take it is what you're looking at.  I think that was probably the only representation available at Referendum time;  I think I cobbled a script to extract data from it. Do see if you have access to the plain text version, which I think is certainly user-friendlier for most purposes.

PS I've just looked at the file within Chrome, and see only the real json format raw data and no obvious other option.  I'd better look at the real raw file now -- which I've saved as a .txt file -- and I find that the 'raw data' in json format is still all there is, and that I've perhaps been beguiled into thinking differently by some Firefox feature or add-on.  Ho hum.  But do other browsers really not have similar?

PPS See my addendum to my above post.  Firefox does indeed have a built-in JSON viewer, that other browsers may not have.

 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by ianr
Rethinks

[Rockets]

15 minutes ago, malumbu said:

So not a lot around here would agree with some of the more extreme views on this thread.

Malumbu, yes there are some extreme views being voiced on this thread (many of which I do not agree with - on both sides I hasten to add) but do not try to pigeon-hole people as lunatic fringes. The Democrats tried that in the US election and it backfired massively - why? Because swing voters and some who you would expect to be die-hard Democrats voted for Trump because they weren't hearing anything of substance from the Democrats about the things that mattered to them.

And this is the very threat we all face from populism - that populists throw dog whistles out to anyone and everyone on the basis that "the incumbents aren't listening to you/are ignoring you". In fact, the tactic that Labour used in the election campaign to blame everything on Tory incompetence and corruption is now being played back to them.

I think the government has 6 - 9 months to try and stop this turning into a massive train-wreck of a parliament and we all have to hope they can do so because the alternative direction of travel is an absolute disaster in waiting. I often say it's the people who do not need to say anything who are benefiting the most at a time of crisis - be wary when your political opponents are letting you do all the talking (and this applies in equal measure to people outside and inside your own party).

[Sephiroth]

17 minutes ago, ianr said:

Sephiroth

I've slightly amended my above post btw, though numbers stay the same. 

I've just realised that I was looking at the plain text version (labelled JSON as a page-top option) within Firefox.  Your post alerted me to the fact that I'm also offered a 'raw data' version, which I take it is what you're looking at.  I think that was probably the only representation available at Referendum time;  I think I cobbled a script to extract data from it. Do see if you have access to the plain text version, which I think is certainly user-friendlier for most purposes.

PS I've just looked at the file within Chrome, and see only the real json format raw data and no obvious other option.  I'd better look at the real raw file now -- which I've saved as a .txt file, and find that the 'raw data' in json format is still all there is, and that I've perhaps been beguiled into thinking differently by some Firefox feature or add-on.  Ho hum.  But do other browsers really not have similar?

 

 

 

I took the JSON into Alteryx and ran some tools against it - but I did make that mistake of counting 4 rows per country instead of the 3

 

But materially you were still essentially correct

"Whatever the true situation the fact that this petition is getting such traction suggests the government are struggling to cut through - which they are."

 

there will be be some headlines no doubt - and in no way am I claiming Labour are perfect - I disagree with them on several issues and as I say I didn't even vote for them. 

But unlike others I think they are doing a better job than headlines suggest and I would argue - strongly - that the levels of dissatisfaction are down to :

1 - unrealistic voter expectations. Given global headwinds there are no easy fixes - so sure you could throw every govt out at drop of a hat if you are an unhappy electorate but you should also be aware that you will be making things worse and it will be your fault

2 - there are several actors (Musk and his obvious targeting) and a portion of the population (the worst elements of the express/mail readership, many reform voters etc) who, as shown by [insert high scoring scrabble name here] are barely in touch with reality, easily led and extremely vocal and angry - constantly

 

I think MOST of the electorate, either now or in time, will accept there are no easy answers but are keeping a watch on how Labour handles these challenges - but won't be signing any petitions like this 

 

(imagine if the  petition DID topple  the govt and an election was held and someone else got in - only for another petition to do the same thing all over again. rinse and repeat every few months forever. Complete madness)

 

 

"The Democrats tried that in the US election and it backfired massively - why? Because swing voters and some who you would expect to be die-hard Democrats voted for Trump because they weren't hearing anything of substance from the Democrats about the things that mattered to them."

 

See as time goes on I reject this more and more - because every allegation thrown at Democrats (old, infirm, lacking substance) can be thrown at Trump (and then some, plus without the dangerous sides) - so it can't be just that. I'm inclined to lean more towards enough of US voters not wanting a woman in power - one time Dems  put a man against Trump they won

[Rockets]

16 minutes ago, Sephiroth said:

there will be be some headlines no doubt - and in no way am I claiming Labour are perfect - I disagree with them on several issues and as I say I didn't even vote for them. 

But unlike others I think they are doing a better job than headlines suggest and I would argue - strongly - that the levels of dissatisfaction are down to :

1 - unrealistic voter expectations. Given global headwinds there are no easy fixes - so sure you could throw every govt out at drop of a hat if you are an unhappy electorate but you should also be aware that you will be making things worse and it will be your fault

2 - there are several actors (Musk and his obvious targeting) and a portion of the population (the worst elements of the express/mail readership, many reform voters etc) who, as shown by [insert high scoring scrabble name here] are barely in touch with reality, easily led and extremely vocal and angry - constantly

I agree as well but Labour are losing control of the narrative on every single policy they have announced. And that is incredibly dangerous for them. After 120 days they find themselves peering into a hole not dissimilar to that the hole the Tories found themselves in - a hole so deep (of their own making) that there was no way they were going to be able to convince anyone anything they were doing was good.

Unfortunately, the easily led, vocal and angry are the people who often determine the outcome of an election and, as Labour are finding to their cost right now, they are also the quickest to turn. This is why the "no tax increases on working people" was an absolute ticking time-bomb that Labour planted on themselves.

22 minutes ago, Sephiroth said:

(imagine if the  petition DID topple  the govt and an election was held and someone else got in - only for another petition to do the same thing all over again. rinse and repeat every few months forever. Complete madness)

Completely agree but I fear we are heading for repeated one-term governments - which seems to be a global trend post pandemic - people no longer have patience with political parties or politicians - they want change now but Covid, the oil crisis, geo-political challenges and war mean that change will be likely be generational - there are no quick fixes anymore. 

[Sephiroth]

" agree as well but Labour are losing control of the narrative on every single policy they have announced."

 

I think this is the  key point - but maybe not in way we would agree on. I disagree they are in a hole not dissimilar to where Tories found themselves - that govt had a largely supportive media but had very little talent left after the Johnson post Brexit purges, had no idea what it WANTED to do much less how and just drifted and drifted

I think Labour have a good idea of what they want to do and have enough talent to do it

So why the bad comms? When you have most of the media and the  likes of Musk lined up against you is it even worth pretending they won't try and spin every bit of comms you might produce? I agree they need to be better - but I'm not sure even a comms wizard will outpace the 2024 world of twitter/x and British media. So I wonder if they are ploughing on regardless with what needs doing and trusting people to notice results. I don't really know but I don't think it's a simple as "Labour bad at comms"

Edited 1 hour ago by Sephiroth

[jazzer]

What the Tories achieved in 14 years, Liebour have achieved in 120 days. A huge hole, so deep with no way out except resignation and a new Govt to sweep these mindless cowboys out of office. Because no one will forget, no one will forgive. Liebour tarnished themselves, they did it to themselves, big promises followed by lie after lie, or things they have done but did not say in their manifesto they would do. Prime example being removing the winter fuel allowance, increasing employer NI contributions, doubling the national debt. 

They can lie as much as they like, the people won't forget and once gone, never, ever to return. Not only are they penalising their own said be supporters, they are penalising the entire country. So unless you won't to avert a financial disaster, yiu have to sign the petion to get them out NOW. 

[alice]

It will fizzle out.

[malumbu]

How do we know this discussion represents what the country thinks?  At present I expect that most are thinking of Xmas and the one political issue in the news this week will be the assisted dying Bill.

I expect Starmer will ride this out and move on.  It did amuse me the one comment that I wasn't Chancellor following my disappointment that fuel duty was not increased to bring it back in line with inflation.   Yet so many of us think we know better!   There would have been one almighty backlash if fuel duty had gone up.  But again ride it out. 

I have many years experience working with the transport sector including the impact of give Blair a Bloody nose - ie the 2000 fuel protests; this still makes Labour shudder.  For those not familiar this was an unholy alliance of farmers and hauliers blockading refineries and depots.  This was effective as government was not prepared and then Blair wound the protestors up rather than let the protest subside of its own accord.

As this involved trespasses on private land blockades would be prevented in future.   There were some follow up campaigns in the 00s that did not disrupt the delivery of fuel, and led to short term shortages due to panic buying.  Same thing happens when we get disruption of crude production when rigs/on shore infrastructure is disrupted due to extreme weather in the North Sea, or loss of production/refining due to accidents or technical issues.  There is a bigger picture on resilience of transport and heating fuels since UK stopped being a net exporter of oil and gas.  Lower reliance on gas fired power stations has helped.  Russia clearly not.

So whether the dissatisfaction with Labout  this is an over-reaction or not, stoked on by the right wing media and quiet news days, we shall see.  Public messaging has been poor and I am unsure why this is so.

Ultimately neither Tories or Labour would admit to income tax staying historically high due to the freezing of the thresholds, and neither said they would raise income tax - when of course it would stay at these high levels.  Maybe the fairest way of raising revenue would have been income tax rises, accompanied by raising the thresholds to protect the poorest paid and maybe even placate the squeezed middle.  But we will never know.

Meanwhile Clarkson and many others will continue to exploit the means to avoid tax.

Whoops Alice just said what I said in one line.  Lesson to self don't get on hobby horse.

Edited 39 minutes ago by malumbu

[jazzer]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4exGJQmJZE4

 

[Moovart]

4 hours ago, jazzer said:

And when Kemi takes Office, all this foolishness imposed during Starmagedon will be reversed. 

🤣🤣🤣Love the idea/fantasy/delusion that Kemi BadEnoch is the economic and political saviour we've all been waiting for.  Absolutely hilarious.  If only I'd known.  No doubt she'd do it in less than 100 days or would it be more than 14 years?  🤣🤣🤣