Would the last 35-43 year old to leave East Dulwich.....

[MrBen]

My point was not:

- To complain about incomers whether from Clapham or wherever.

- To make out that people getting priced out of cities and heading to the country hasn't always been happening. It has.

It was that right now the frequency of the exodus in a specific age range has increased and that the types of earners its happening to has changed too i.e. the relatively affluent. When a high number of professional types get priced out of very ordinary parts of suburban south London (not, say, Notting Hill) that hasn't happened before. And when most are in the 35-45 bracket, which is also the time when your lifetime earning power peaks, that tells me that something is badly wrong, with house prices, with London, with the economy.

Seems like most on this thread who are confidently saying they are staying and why also own their own home. Or in Otta's case this is their roots and they'll hang on as long as they can. Be good to hear from some who don't.

[Otta]

This new scheme whereby you only need a 5% deposit and the gov puts up 15%, starts in Jan 14. We certainly hope to take advanage, as will lots of others I imagine. So dare say we'll be moving further afield (still in London) as our budget definitely wouldn't get us much.

Hoping to find some nice ex council flat in Sydenham...

[Help-Ma-Boab]

Going to have to releuctantly move on at some point. Not sure when. Still renting and rent keeps going up. Was in Belfast at the weeekend. The house next to my mates was up for rent. Gated mews type place, all detached, 4 bedrooms over 3 floors - ?1100 per month, what we pay at the moment for a 1 bed flat. Wages though nowehere near what London offers with London Living allowance etc but there you go. Hard to get a deposit together when a lot goes out on rent.

Dont worry MrBen, Im here for a while yet, love it here(ED) and feels like home. Love getting several nods hello and stop and chats on Saturday as people pass The Bishop!

[Twirly]

Am slightly outside the specified demographic (though my husband is still just within it) and although we don't have children we do need somewhere bigger as I partially work from home now. I've been here for 15 years, have grown to love the area but have to leave as we really want a house, and simply can't afford it here, so are off to a more affordable area.

However, the person/people who buy my flat will be very different from me. I bought by myself on a salary that was slightly lower than average at the time for London. Judging by recent valuations, you'd have to be on around ?100k to buy it now, on one salary. Hardly average (not quite sure what average is, as it depends on where you look, but one site I checked suggested it was ?34k in London). Even having two salaries could make it a struggle.

And I am quite aware that whereas the influx of Claphamites may be resented in ED, all of us who have made some money on our property in ED and are then moving to more affordable areas are doing the exact same thing.

[Burbage]

MarkE Wrote:

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> Looking along

> the station platform in the morning, the vast

> majority would appear to be between 25-40. Where

> did these middle-agers disappear to?

It's the same reason as, when you look around your office in the morning, the vast majority (excluding the nepotistic minority upstairs or in the corner offices) are also in that bracket. If you've not been made redundant by the age of 40 you're probably living on borrowed time and, once you have been, your chance of employment (as opposed to ekeing out a living making greetings cards from navel fluff and selling them on ebay) is slight.

If, instead of fixing your bleary gaze on the station, you wandered along Lordship Lane at a more civilized elevenses, and you'd see a vibrant, if grey and down-at-heel, community of the divorced, dispossessed and desolate, window-shopping at the pubs and conversing with reluctant shopkeepers. Every other flat has someone eagerly staring at a phone and wondering where their life went, while the park is full of elders trying to look purposeful.

When I first moved here, I had dreams too. I also had friends and relatives, most of whom entered into brief engagements, more for the DIY skills than any romantic notions, then split up, bred, sold up and left in short order. Thankfully, I have never been tempting and, finding SE22 a friendly place, I managed to cling on. As a result, I'm now on first-name terms with the meter reader and the Jehovah's Witnesses, though neither visit as often as they did. I am no socialist, but I do find rapacious graspery somewhat unsettling, especially when homes are involved, so I long ago found myself resolved not to move until the council comes to decontaminate the flat. I'm fairly sure I'm not alone in that.

[DaveR]

I still don't buy the idea that something unique is going on, or that it spells doom for the economy/London/anything.

It may be worth pointing out that the real boom in home ownership in the UK has only taken place in the last 50 years or so, and got a big shot in the arm through right to buy in the 80s. Mass gentrification in Inner London is an even more recent phenomenon. So saying "this hasn't happened before" is not particularly telling. It is undoubtedly the case that more UK wealth is concentrated in the SE than before, and even more is concentrated in inner London. It's not surprising that inner London is becoming progressively more expensive (tho as noted before in fact large parts of SE and E London and many outer suburbs have not seen dramatic price rises, or started from a much lower base). One other factor which is often overlooked is that Inner London boroughs have the highest proportion of social housing tenants anywhere in the UK (most over 40% of residents) as well as high levels of private rentals so there is a comparative shortage of houses available for sale.

So, calling ED 'very ordinary' doesn't make it so. The fact that people pay a lot to move here (and then complain so bitterly when they can't afford to stay) is an indicator of the real value people place on it. Prices reveal truth and all that. However, there are still lots of areas in London that are much more affordable, as well as lots of commutable places outside London.

[LondonMix]

Agree completely with all of that!

[StraferJack]

"A lot more affordable" has a hint of "I could easily downsize"

Try earning a decent salary in london, and you are early 30s. Should be thinking of setting up a base. Say 30ish k. Where exactly is affordable?

[red devil]

I think what MrB describes is a unique variant/phenomenon. However I don't think what he describes is as prevalent as he thinks it is. He's probably just more acutely aware of it as it affects his immediate peer group. I for instance don't know anyone in such circumstances.

The modern day housing market continually throws up these variants/phenomena, as people learn to adapt to continually changing market conditions, hence why we've had/have buy to let, the bank of Mum & Dad, empty nesters selling up and returning to the city to live in smart apartments, Generation Rent, and so on...

[Mick Mac]

According to the Evening Standard tonight even Finsbury Park is more expensive than ED. Barring some parts of SE London, ED is about as cheap as it gets for any attractive areas of London. Wake up people, it's nothing special here. Much as we like it.

[LondonMix]

Eltham, Mottingham, Abbey Wood......

StraferJack Wrote:

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>

>

> Try earning a decent salary in london, and you are

> early 30s. Should be thinking of setting up a

> base. Say 30ish k. Where exactly is affordable?

[StraferJack]

Links to propert for that salary in those areas?

[StraferJack]

And even if you manage to get a place, where is your path upwards? There isn't one, even if you forego beer, socializing, living in london generally, and just save. You aren't going to be able to afford a step up

[Jeremy]

I'm still not sure what's new here. London property prices have been rising faster than salaries for a long time.

MrBen/StraferJack - is the crux of your argument that you think the situation has reached tipping point?

[StraferJack]

Boiled down, yes Jeremy. Or close to it anyway

[red devil]

My advice to anyone on a joint income of ?90k pa is to sit tight on your affluent arses, forget about moving out of London, stop feeling sorry for yourself and instead emabrace and enjoy what London has to offer, whilst waiting for the ensuing carnage when interest rates head North.

Then you can sit with smug smiles and say I told you so!..

[Jeremy]

StraferJack Wrote:

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> Boiled down, yes Jeremy. Or close to it anyway

OK. I like boiling things down. So what's going to happen?

In lots of other big cities it's quite normal for families to live in flats. So maybe that's the way it will end up here... get rich, live in a flat, or move away.

Or perhaps we're in for a wholesale "readjustement" when interest rates rise, as RD suggests.

Or maybe unloved areas of East and South-East London will become more popular (East Ham... 3 bed house doable on much less than MrBen's suggested 90K joint salary).

Or maybe a mixture of all three?

[StraferJack]

Don't make memo back to east ham jeremey - please, I beg you

But saying what is going to happen isn't the same as saying something is wrong

But your speculative points all sound plausible. I suspect London will become more affluent and boring (just as Manhattan has over the last couple of decades)

[motorbird83]

You can buy a small house that needs cosmetic updating for 250k in that part of town. I have two set of friends looking at the moment.

London, by big city international standards isn't that bad. Look at Hong Kong. I live in a house (at my Engliish partner's insistence) but most urbanites I know (including millionaires) choose to raise their families in flats. Its a very English trait to be urban and want the traditional picket fence / house / garden to feel complete. In most of the world, choosing to raise a family in a major metropolis means raising them in a flat. It goes hand in hand with urban living.

LondonMix Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Eltham, Mottingham, Abbey Wood......

>

>

> StraferJack Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> >

> >

> > Try earning a decent salary in london, and you

> are

> > early 30s. Should be thinking of setting up a

> > base. Say 30ish k. Where exactly is affordable?

[StraferJack]

Relatively speaking boring obviously. I love manhattan

[red devil]

Jeremy Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> StraferJack Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Boiled down, yes Jeremy. Or close to it anyway

>

> OK. I like boiling things down. So what's going to

> happen?

>

> In lots of other big cities it's quite normal for

> families to live in flats. So maybe that's the way

> it will end up here... get rich, live in a flat,

> or move away.

>

> Or perhaps we're in for a wholesale

> "readjustement" when interest rates rise, as RD

> suggests.

>

> Or maybe unloved areas of East and South-East

> London will become more popular (East Ham... 3 bed

> house doable on much less than MrBen's suggested

> 90K joint salary).

>

> Or maybe a mixture of all three?

Or maybe there needs to be a change of mindset that somehow you can't lead a fulfilled life unless you own a property. On the continent long term renting isn't seen in such a negative light, and subsequently rents are lower and leases longer...

[StraferJack]

Yeah I'm pro renting but with some sort of controls. Renting as exists in this country requires too much luck and insecurity

[Otta]

This thread is just making ne feel very poor ?90k joint income? I can only dream of that.

Curses to the public sector!!!

And people think I'm lucky because I'll get a so called "good" pension. It won't cover my rent!

[red devil]

Pension?...oh shiiiiiiiiit!

[Jeremy]

RD - problem with your suggestion is that I don't think us brits are very good at saving, we'd need to find a way to figure out how to pay the rent after we retire! Like you say... change in mindset.

SJ - I know East Ham is not a great area (and then some), it was more of a suggestion of a long term way forward, rather than somewhere you'd move to next month with your family. But if people start moving to those places in their twenties because it's affordable, fairly well connected, etc... then decide to buy a place... maybe it will pick up. I don't see why not.