Rcession

[JohnL]

ratty Wrote:

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> I have a 2 bed in St Francis Place that I will be

> looking to sell in the near future. Gutted at dip

> cos they were worth just over 300k not long ago.

> Dunno how much now but my dream of a 3 bed in

> Sevenoaks is looking a long way off now! :(

The 3 bed in Seven Oaks will have fallen in price too mind :)

[mockney piers]

Here's a darn good site if you want to get an idea of what's going on.

Just register (free) and you get property valuations too

http://www.mouseprice.net/

Mines dropped a bit of late (20k), but still miles and miles off negative equity.

[mamafeelgood]

oooh mines still 100 grand more than the price was back in 2005, maybe one of the (many) positives of living in the denmark village (said with irony) in se5 means that prices never escalated to far?

however, i agree with above, so long as you can sit out the next 5 years you should be ok. i too sold a flat in brixton for a good price, but already 5 years ago we couldn't afford off lordship lane. well we could but i just thought that price v size was just not sane down there.

[danrees]

Emma Wrote:

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> I put my house on the market about 5 weeks ago. I

> have had about 7 viewings. Pretty much all of them

> came back and said they were unprocedable as they

> had a property to sell. Estate agents then said I

> should lower the price after about a week!! But I

> am not sure whether it is a bit early to do that,

> especially as I went with the price they said

> initially. I totally accept that I won't get my

> full asking price and am happy to lower if

> necessary but can't keep lowering every few weeks.

> Also I think if people are interetsed they will

> try their luck at a cheeky offer and then I can

> take a view. Not stupid know I need to be

> flexible. Getting a bit disheartened with the

> estate agents as I think they are so unused to

> this market they don't seem to know whether they

> are coming or going!.

This sums up the London property market at the moment. Those who are already on the ladder can't quite understand why their property is not selling, but the reality is that first time buyers just simply can't afford/unwilling to pay the asking prices being demanded. You will find plenty of people who are looking to upsize who are ready to make serious offers, but until they get realistic with the price of their own property no chain can ever complete.

A 2 bedroom garden flat on my road originally came onto the market at ?350k, and went SSTC. Obviously didn't complete as it is now back on the market at ?332k. I would imagine that the purchaser either couldn't get a mortgage, or couldn't sell their own smaller 1 bed flat.

I estimate that prices in East Dulwich have to fall about 30%.

At 3.5 times household income, you need to be on joint income of ?85k to afford a ?300k mortgage. Is it really sustainable that only couples of bankers, solicitors, accountants etc can afford a two bed flat in East Dulwich, which I remind everybody, however much we all like it, is 15 mins on a bus/train away from the nearest tube line? Add to that mortgage companies at the moment are insisting on at least 10% deposit - which first time buyers have ?30k in cash around?

[macroban]

Does that mean you estimate that the ~sale~ price of a two bedroom flat has to drop to ?232k before the market starts moving again?

MacRoban

The optimist

[benmorg]

danrees Wrote:

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> A 2 bedroom garden flat on my road originally came

> onto the market at ?350k, and went SSTC. Obviously

> didn't complete as it is now back on the market at

> ?332k. I would imagine that the purchaser either

> couldn't get a mortgage, or couldn't sell their

> own smaller 1 bed flat.

>

> I estimate that prices in East Dulwich have to

> fall about 30%.

that must be the winkworth flat on hansler road:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-16837108.rsp?pa_n=25&tr_t=buy

I've been to view this. It's a nice flat, though has a cramped, pokey feel in the corridor around the small bathroom (the bathroom door practically touches the opposite wall when it opens). Good garden. It was on at 350 when I saw it, which I thought was ludicrous. Is probably worth about 280, though if it stays stuck on the market for long enough then the 250 stamp duty threshold could bring it crashing down a lot more.

It's easy to gauge the state of the east dulwich market by doing a count of properties for sale on rightmove. Currently nearly 470, which is 200 more than last year. Prices won't stabilize until stock levels fall back down under 300, which is unlikely to happen until 2009 (at the most optimistic) as this year's spring-summer selling season only has a few weeks left to run.

East dulwich got very overheated, and vendors are perfectly understandably stilll hoping to achieve peak 2007 prices, which is why so many properties have got stuck on the market.

[benmorg]

for a contrast to the beautifully presented hansler road flat, have a look at the living room here:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-17175793.rsp?pa_n=18&tr_t=buy

I sometimes think estate agents deliberate post pictures like this to appeal to all the would-be sarah beenies out there.

Originally marketed at 450K, then listed as sold subject to contract, now available again at 400.

[jollybaby]

Not sure about SE22 but to my surprise have had not one but two offers on my flat in Cardiff this week - both under asking price but not ridiculously so. I had just been getting it ready to rent out and now don't know what to do. The better offer is just above the threshold for me to cover my fees and make a teensy- weensy bit of profit but not sure I can face the hassle of/afford a sale falling through for the third time. Ho hum.

[benmorg]

you must have priced it low enough to attract interest. Just goes to show that you can always sell if the price is correct. My advice would be take the money and run.

[Asset]

Jeez, do you think they tried to tidy before the pics?

[Bellenden Belle]

Gosh what a sight! But then it's been sold by Halifax who do a nice line in reposessions and erm, the "in need of modernisation" properties. We saw some horrors with them - though great if you have the time and energy.

That said 400,000 for a two bed on Crystal Palace Road? Madness!

[jollybaby]

benmorg Wrote:

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> you must have priced it low enough to attract

> interest. Just goes to show that you can always

> sell if the price is correct. My advice would be

> take the money and run.

Very, very tempted .

[benmorg]

jollybaby Wrote:

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> benmorg Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > you must have priced it low enough to attract

> > interest. Just goes to show that you can always

> > sell if the price is correct. My advice would

> be

> > take the money and run.

>

> Very, very tempted .

sounds to me like you've already made up your mind. go for it!

[danrees]

macroban Wrote:

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> Does that mean you estimate that the ~sale~ price

> of a two bedroom flat has to drop to ?232k before

> the market starts moving again?

>

> MacRoban

> The optimist

Yes, but who really knows? That is just my best guess. A good two bed flat in Se22 is currently let out at about ?1250pm asking price, or nearer ?1150 actual price.

That is the same monthly cost as an interest only mortgage for ?230k at 6% (not readily available ATM).

Why would anyone buy if it is significantly cheaper to rent (as it is at the moment)?

[macroban]

Thanks danrees,

Have I got this right?

Using your calculation with ?1150pcm rent at 7% interest gives a valuation of ?197k (a 40% reduction).

These numbers are so confusing.

MacRoban

[danrees]

Yes that's right.

[*Bob*]

danrees Wrote:

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> Why would anyone buy if it is significantly

> cheaper to rent (as it is at the moment)?

Because to some people, the value of owning their own home isn't determined exclusively by plodding-out figures on a calculator?

[macroban]

Good news. 11 Dunstans Road sold at ?310k. Not much else sold though.

[JimSmith]

Thats 10k less than it sold for in late 2004, certainly shows the direction the market is heading in.

[danrees]

*Bob* Wrote:

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> danrees Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Why would anyone buy if it is significantly

> > cheaper to rent (as it is at the moment)?

>

> Because to some people, the value of owning their

> own home isn't determined exclusively by

> plodding-out figures on a calculator?

I agree. But like anything there is a price to this value. You might, say 15% extra per month to 'own' your home on an IO mortgage, but would you pay an extra 20%, 30% etc? Even then you will never own the home until you can stump up some extra cash to repay the capital.

[tommyt]

I rent in East Dulwich our Landlady put our 2 bed flat on the market a month ago we have not yet had a single viewing.....................

[redrouge]

My family are selling the house, and we've had about four viewings in three months and have dropped the price by ?60,000... and still nothing.

[Keef]

We've been to look at a couple of flats around the Lawrie Park Triangle of Sydenham, and for around ?220 you can get some really really nice 2 bed places, so I think prices will have to come down a bit in ED, because I would never pay ?25 + for some pokey place in ED away from decent transport, when I can get a place 15 minutes away on the bus, with great transport links and twice the space. I just don't understand it, are the schools really that good?

[Gerrard]

Keef, I am sure you know that there is more to living in ED than decent schools. I dont have kids and left Sydenham to live here three years ago. The Lawrie Park Triangle is a really nice part of Sydenham, but for me the lack of decent places to eat and drink, alongside a generally iffy high street in SE26 put me off the place. I know things have improved recently on these fronts, but Sydenham has a long way to go to rival the ED area for these type of facilities.

Although I do agree that the transport links in Sydenham are much better than ED, I always felt too far away from the centre of town when I lived there, ?38 in a black cab home versus ?21 where I currently live. Horses for courses, but overall I am much happier here and am glad I paid the extra money to set up home.

[snorky]

maybe the time is coming for me to cast aside my outdated ideas of left wingism and adopt the cloak of rackham landlordism

it is vry clsoe the the break point where this would be profitable, or at the vry least, break even