Decision 2 April - Proposed Development - The Sidings, Railway Rise, SE22

[Cancerian]

  On 26/04/2025 at 20:46, Dogkennelhillbilly said:

There it is...if you dog whistle long enough, eventually someone will bark. 

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But isn’t this true? There’s no need to beat around the bush as it’s been in the news what Labour intend to do with empty properties.

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

Is what true? That the student units part of this development that hasn't yet been built is going to fall vacant because there's such a collapse in the number of students in London that they can't rent the units out, and then the Labour government is going to appropriate them to house them asylum seekers? Is that what you're asking is true?

[Cancerian]

You’ve said it!
 

 

 

 

[Sally Eva]

it isn't said on any news source that I look at.

Are you asking on social media whether what you read on other social media is true?

[LurkyMcLurker]

I think a lot of people here are just speculating about empty student accommodation properties.

Student accommodation developments are very popular because they provide really great rates of return for the owner. A large student accommodation owner, Unite Students, saw 97.5% occupancy across their assets in the 2024/2025 academic year. They have many properties in London; https://pbsanews.co.uk/2024/10/09/unite-students-reports-record-occupancy-rates-in-q3-2024-update/

Here's a bit from CBRE on PBSA properties in London from May 2024: https://www.cbre.co.uk/press-releases/london-plan-policy-fails-to-deliver-affordable-student-accommodation - "According to new research by CBRE and QX Global, the gap between demand for PBSA and available supply in London currently stands at 100,000 – 105,000 full-time students, underscoring how demand for student housing has outpaced supply." - The development pipeline in London isn't keeping up with the demand.

Ultimately this development wouldn't be built if student accommodation wasn't in demand. It's proximity to the station means that a student could get to any number of universities easily in a short span of time.

Is it ideal? No. Would more affordable housing be better? Yes. Is speculating about channel migrants occupying the space uninformed idiocy? Absolutely.

[first mate]

 

"Dedicated to the purpose-built student accommodation sector.

PBSA News is the leading source of news, insights and analysis for professionals, investors and stakeholders in the purpose-built student accommodation sector. With a mission to provide the latest information and foster collaboration within the rental community."

 

The PBSA take on the strength of the market seems much more upbeat than does the govt. research paper. Perhaps they are right or perhaps it is in their interests to talk up the market?

 

 

[LurkyMcLurker]

  On 27/04/2025 at 08:09, first mate said:

The PBSA take on the strength of the market seems much more upbeat than does the govt. research paper. Perhaps they are right or perhaps it is in their interests to talk up the market.

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How about we go straight to the source then if you think it's questionable:

Here's Unite Group's annual report: https://www.unitegroup.com/annual-report-and-accounts-2024 Download the PDF and you'll find the 97.5% occupancy rate. You know a lot of these news sources exist because digging through annual reports is laborious and not immediately accessible to the masses. They're reporting on what Unite Group, a public company, is reporting. It's making something more digestible.

They're not just making up numbers. They'd end up without much business if they were. PBSA is a big industry.

Here's another take (though a year older) from Cushman and Wakefield: https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/united-kingdom/insights/uk-student-accommodation-report 

Like CBRE, they're also reporting supply shortages. Again, to be occupied by students.

 

Edited April 27 by LurkyMcLurker

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

Exactly.

There's also a much easier way to find out how demand and supply are interacting for student housing: look at how goddamn expensive it is! It's a huge barrier to entry for students who want to study away from home.

If the price of student housing cratered, this would be great news for everyone except property developers because it would cut housing costs for students and reduce some demand on "mainstream" housing in the wider market (because students won't be looking for houseshares).

These property developers (and their financiers) aren't shovelling millions of pounds into student housing because they think the market is going to crash and they're going to lose money! And if they do, it's not really my problem...

[Penguin68]

  On 27/04/2025 at 13:39, Dogkennelhillbilly said:

aren't shovelling millions of pounds into student housing because they think the market is going to crash and they're going to lose money!

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Obviously, but they may be wrong. Not only are we coming up to another population renewal drop after the continuing effects of the baby bulge generation enter a trough,  - secondary schools are closing across many boroughs - but birth rates in the UK continue to fall (not just absolute births which are also falling as a function of the bulge unwind, but births per head). And foreign student numbers are also falling. Additionally the costs of being a student are rising, which encourages more students to go to universities close enough that they don't need accommodation but can live at home. Bubbles burst, and this may be one of them.