National Travel Survey and cycling policy in London

[snowy]

Vincent Stops is really a poor statistician isnt he. For those that don't know him - he was removed from his transport role at a council and fundamentally doesn't believe in the safety of any segregated cycling routes.
 

All his analysis is based on that premise.

Luckily the dft National Travel Attitudes study shows that the public don't agree with him. 64% sampled saying that they support the creation of dedicated cycle lanes in their local area even if this means less road space for cars. 

Rockets - you have google. Do you want to tell is what proportion of the roads budget goes towards cycling infrastructure?

 

Edited October 13, 2023 by snowy

[Rockets]

Snowy - not entirely correct - he doesn't believe in poorly designed segregated cycling routes that put cyclists in danger and is highlighting the fact that cycle injuries are increasing as a result of those poor designs. Is that not to be welcomed - I know he really is a thorn in the side of Will Norman and the cycle lobby don't like him as a result?

 

Take a look here, prime example.

https://twitter.com/VincentStops/status/1712364566137450754?t=Xa2ZgAYyXVkk5lI6Vy1HQA&s=19 

 

Look at that junction at Old Street - it's a mess and the shading of the cycle lane gives the cyclists the impression they have right of way but the Highway Code says they must not pass to the left of a vehicle turning left in front of them. Some of these designs are a recipe for disaster

 

Snowy, I am not arguing about the proportion of spend I am arguing that much of the huge amount of infrastructure that has been put in at great cost to the tax-payer and bus passengers just isn't attracting enough cyclist to suggest it is successful.

You have to agree that the DFT research does show cycling is declining though doesn't it - so what's going on, what do you think is going to buck the downward trend in cycling in London?

[malumbu]

Actually Snowy, whilst I like most of what you have said I have to disagree.  I want a world where we share the road and are courteous to each other.  Segregating cyclists mean that motorists can continue to believe that they own the road, whereas the Highway Code does not distinguish between different road users. I've lobbied influential contacts on this but I also understand why pragmatism (cars being 20 - 30 times heavier than the average human) trumps my views.  Love to have a beer and a discussion about this. 

 

Just thought I'd Google, I'm not that bothered about the thread as a whole as I know it is another anti LTN Trojan Horse and I want cycling to continue to be supported as it is the right thing to do.

From the Guardian: Mitchell [Sarah Mitchell, chief executive of UK cycling charity Cycling UK] said: “The pandemic proved more people would cycle – particularly women and children – if it felt safe for them to do so. It’s sadly no surprise that last year those cycling levels dropped, as some short-sighted councils began pulling out the protected lanes which kept people safe and traffic levels rose again.

“Both national and local governments need to learn last year’s lessons and focus on the new crisis: cost of living. More people are turning to cycling for shorter journeys to help make ends meet, but they need the safety that dedicated cycle lanes bring. ”

A DfT spokesperson said: “Government is investing a record £2bn over this parliament to enable more walking, wheeling and cycling through better infrastructure, cycle training and active travel prescriptions.

“Though cycling levels have returned from the exceptional levels we saw during the pandemic, we remain fully confident our investment will enable many more people to choose walking and cycling for everyday journeys by 2030.”

 

I'll back DfT on this, irrespective of the rrrssss running the show at the moment.

Oh, and Rocks, suggest you join LCC who have major campaigns against dangerous junctions,

Edited October 14, 2023 by malumbu
Average human is about 75 kg not 25 stone as I had used earlier

[Rockets]

20 hours ago, malumbu said:

I want cycling to continue to be supported as it is the right thing to do.

Don't we all but at what point do you have to say....its just not happening...if the numbers keep going down, as it is now, what is this saying and what is the solution? Keep building more infrastructure? Maybe the problem is those rolling this out had no idea what the problem was they were trying to solve and just got hooked on the "cycling is the answer" narrative.

[Earl Aelfheah]

Numbers aren't going down Rocket. Cycling in London has boomed over the last couple of decades. It's the main mode of transport now in the City, and across the capital it's up 40% on pre-pandemic levels. If (as you claim) you cycle into town every day, you'll see yourself how many cyclists there are, especially at peak rush hour. On many of the main, segregated cycle routes (such as the one over Blackfriars bridge), there is actually bike congestion!

 

Edited October 25, 2023 by Earl Aelfheah

[Spartacus]

4 hours ago, Earl Aelfheah said:

Numbers aren't going down Rocket. Cycling in London has boomed over the last couple of decades. It's the main mode of transport now in the City, and across the capital it's up 40% on pre-pandemic levels. If (as you claim) you cycle into town every day, you'll see yourself how many cyclists there are, especially at peak rush hour. On many of the main, segregated cycle routes (such as the one over Blackfriars bridge), there is actually bike congestion!

 

Earl, 

Can you provide your source for the 40% Increase as the DFT's National Travel survey shows a different figure.

would be good to understand and compare.

[DulvilleRes]

If we are talking locally - i.e cycling in Southwark, are there any numbers on that?

I have been for years cycle commuting into town the length of the borough, and my experience is that cycling has increased exponentially. I would agree with Earl - there are consistent virtual cycle traffic jams on some of the lights. I am also staggered at how many cyclists come through the Dulwich Square junction, especially getting their kids to school, including some of our local well known people. 

[Earl Aelfheah]

23 hours ago, Spartacus said:

Earl, 

Can you provide your source for the 40% Increase as the DFT's National Travel survey shows a different figure.

would be good to understand and compare.

https://tfl.gov.uk/info-for/media/press-releases/2022/november/new-tfl-data-shows-continued-boom-in-walking-and-cycling-with-almost-twice-as-many-now-living-near-a-high-quality-cycle-route

Edited October 26, 2023 by Earl Aelfheah

[Spartacus]

Thanks Earl , that report is a year old and as I understand it the dft report is only a month or so ago so will be interesting to see sn up yo date tfl one.

It may well be that London bucks the trend observed in the dft report 

[Rockets]

The 40% increase figure is when comparing a very specific period of time in the autumn (2022 vs 2019) so is not a stat that can be used as Earl is as a generic "there's been a 40% increase in cycling" because it is time specific. It's an important clarification and a trap many, Will Norman included, on the pro-cycle lobby fall into time and time again - Will Norman has been criticised for claiming a 38% annual increase in cycling in Enfield that was a cherry-picked month on month comparison stat which is nowhere near the actual annual figure.

 

The DfT data clearly shows a continued year-on-year decline in cycling in London since the pandemic. It is still higher than pre-pandemic levels but if the declines are not arrested then it will likely fall beneath pre-pandemic levels in the future (according to the DfT report outside of London is already back below pre-pandemic levels) - but clearly there's no sign of the ten-fold increase mooted by Will Norman. And yes, Dulwich Square may be busier with cyclists but that microcosm is not being repeated across the capital.

 

I do wonder what more can be done because the current strategies in place seem not to be delivering.

 

[first mate]

That pretty much puts to bed the myth that cycling is massively on the up. 

[Earl Aelfheah]

The dft report is based on survey data, also more than a year old. Apparently this is ‘good data’, but measures comparing actual trips made at two similar periods a year apart is ‘bad data’. 🤔

More importantly, the DFT report actually shows a steady increase in cycling over time. 

1 hour ago, first mate said:

That pretty much puts to bed the myth that cycling is massively on the up. 

How exactly? The number of people cycling in central London has more than doubled since 2000 and cyclists now out number motorists in the City.

Despite fewer workers commuting daily into central London, cycling is up on pre-pandemic levels.

If you don’t want to believe TfL, then use the evidence of your own eyes. Anyone who travels into Central London during the rush hour will tell you how many more cyclists there are now to say a decade ago. 

The determination of a few on here to constantly push back on any active travel measures, is just bizarre to me.

Edited October 27, 2023 by Earl Aelfheah

[Spartacus]

Therein lies the rub.

Two surveys, producing different results. 

What is needed is a commonly defined survey that is unbiased and the metrics recorded are agreed in advance so that there can be no question of the outcome.

Edited October 27, 2023 by Spartacus

[Rockets]

Earl- the DfT report is used to determine travel policy and investment and those declines since Covid show that Will Norman's declaration of a possible ten-fold increase in cycling was fanciful at best. I am hoping that more balanced policy-makers will take these trends and start taking a more pragmatic approach to transport investment that doesn't overweight on one form - as Sadiq, Will and TFL have.

 You quote rush-hour and yes that's great (but to be fair it has always been busy) but what about the rest of the time - much of the cycle infrastructure sits empty whilst buses struggle in traffic after the removal of bus lanes? 

 

First mate is spot on - cycling is not massively up and quotes like 40% increase (as a suggestion that it is an annual or overall increase) are wrong and misleading. But many within the cycle lobby are happy to mislead the public (especially when they are justifying the huge amounts of tax-payers money being invested - in Enfield Will Norman quoted 38% increase to justify the bew cycle lane which was a single month increase comparing a dry June with a very wet June and the actual increase was nearer a 10% overall annual increase).

Cycling went up massively during Covid but has seen nothing but marked declines ever since and that is a fact. And a worrying fact for those devoting so much of London transport infrastructure to cycling - the cycling revolution just doesn't seem to be happening and it is about time people started asking why and what do they need to do differently.

 

 

[first mate]

Spending money on road repairs would be a pragmatic and useful shorter term intervention to increase cycling. Given the shorter days and recent torrential rain where puddles disguise craters in the road surface, I do not feel safe cycling in those conditions at all. 

 I would also like to open up LTNs to buses. Since LTNs were implemented I have seen few examples of children playing in the streets, probably because most LTN properties in ED have large back gardens.

It is not my experience that cycling is up locally at all. It also occurs that the large Evans shop closed. Why if cycling is booming?

 

 

[Rockets]

Unfortunately a lot of cycle retailers and manufacturers are struggling right now because demand has slumped - Islabikes went under last week, VanMoof has gone under, Halfords, in it's 22/23 quarterly report said the market for bikes was down 20% year on year.

The British Bicycle Association said that bike sales in 2022 were the lowest in the UK for 20 years.

It all makes for very grim reading and clearly underlines how the promises of a ten-fold increase in cycling were utterly baseless and how those questioning the DfT report, whilst trying to convince themselves (and us) that cycling is booming may well be misguided. All the data suggests the Covid cycling boom is well and truly over.

 

https://road.cc/content/news/uk-bike-sales-fall-lowest-level-20-years-299457

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2023/08/11/cycle-industrys-collapse-after-bike-boom-ends-this-year-say-analysts/?sh=196ad72c66d9

https://road.cc/content/news/moore-large-enters-liquidation-299931

[DulvilleRes]

 

Not sure where all this 'cycling has peaked' is coming from. I took this picture this morning at the top of Brixton Road. It is the same or more crowded every day, and that could also be said for coming into town via the Elephant. There is a much bigger range of people cycling since the lanes have been put in as well - clearly they give people confidence.

[malumbu]

Rocks as a cyclist how would you suggest increasing cycling?  You agree that it would be a good thing??

[snowy]

Islabikes hasn't gone under. They've decided to not sell to a new buyer and to retire having revolutionised bikes for kids. They cite the bad financial management of the economy by the tory government as a factor but were a highly successful company operating in profit. 
 

i mean that's in their press release on their decision but rockets clearly knows better.
 

The Cartlon Reid article linked to ends:

"Industry analysts believe 2023 will be a trough year, with sales recovering through 2024 and beyond and at a more sustainable level than the heights of the Covid bike boom."

Van Moof was taken over by tech bros who didn't understand bikes and overinflated its market value. Its just been bought from liquidators and will be relaunched.

halfords is now Mike Ashley who is asset stripping physical sites and moving to predominantly online only sales

[Rockets]

1 hour ago, snowy said:

Islabikes hasn't gone under.

Ermmm….https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/oct/27/uk-childrens-cycle-maker-islabikes-to-shut-after-nearly-18-years

 

They cite a “difficult and challenging time for the cycle industry”.

 

Van Moof “tech bros…..who overinflated its value”…there have been a lot of investors who jumped into cycle companies during Covid….i wonder why….https://bikebiz.com/mayors-streetspace-plan-could-see-cycling-increased-tenfold-post-lockdown/

Problem is cycling in London (for example) is struggling to break a one-fold increase and the numbers are declining from their Covid peak (although the DfT report does show those who are cycling are cycling more in London - which is good)

What can be done? I don’t know. Maybe the conditions will never exist where huge swathes of the population will jump on bikes, maybe there are just too many barriers to entry to create the tipping point no matter how much infrastructure is put in (when I started cycling there was no real infrastructure in place and this was during the boom years of cycling growth) and you can’t just keep investing money to support predominantly white middle-class men cycling if that comes at the expense of others who may use other forms of transport that are negatively impacted.  Maybe instead of having Will Norman dictating policy we need someone a little more pragmatic - he, and his supporters, have been way too cycle-centric since the outset- often at the expense of other forms of transport. The problem is much of the cycle lobby was installed to positions of influence and have been able to dictate a somewhat myopic view of London’s post-Covid transport vision - aided and abetted by cycle-centric active travel “researchers”, lobbyists and media.
 

Many of the articles on the troubles of the cycling industry suggest the biggest declines have been in the sales of children’s bikes and if that is the case then that is a big worry as those are the next generation of cyclists who aren’t getting on a bike.

[snowy]

Wow, thats all your tropes in one post

[Rockets]

10 hours ago, DulvilleRes said:

Not sure where all this 'cycling has peaked' is coming from.

DulvilleRes - it's coming from all the data being published that shows that cycling in London is declining from it's Covid peak and, if the current trajectory continues, will likely be lower than pre-Covid soon.

 

And Snowy - they're not tropes but uncomfortable truths about what is happening in cycling right now - surely it's better for people to open their eyes and acknowledge something isn't working and address it before it is too late - the "build it and they will come" approach is clearly not working?

 

If the destination and goal is to seize on the opportunity of Will Norman's proclamation of a potential ten-fold increase in cycling and three years later you have failed to deliver a one-fold increase (and your numbers are dropping year-on-year) surely the path being taken is not the correct one?

[Raeburn]

Rockets .....car sales are down, house-prices are down, maybe everything is down?

Testament to Isla is that they keep their value, are serviceable, and get passed on as children outgrow them - the small ads on here show that.

[malumbu]

Interesting experience, as a teenager where would I go for a bike, parts, service, Halfords, where I would by a Raleigh.  Wouldn't touch either now.  Times change.  Retailing changes 

One reason for the 1930s recession is that as the country became more wealthy a burgeoning middle class was buying luxury consumer goods such as fridges. Trouble was that they were pretty reliable and didn't need to be regularly replaced.  So then manufacturers went bust.  It didn't mean that nobody used  fridges anymore.

Edited November 1, 2023 by malumbu

[Rockets]

Was anyone predicting a massive jump in car sales post pandemic? Maybe, like house prices, the Covid-initiated cycle boom was never sustainable and predictions of a ten-fold increase were just misguided, fanciful nonsense from those with vested-interests propping up their own agendas. The problem is that the Covid cycle boom was used to set transport policy for London - do we now need to have a reset and rethink given that it clearly isn't being sustained?

Isla bikes are brilliant and it is a real shame that no new ones will be made but their struggles, and those of many in the cycle industry, shows the real challenge now - if cycling can't break out of low single figure numbers for percentage share of transport modes then it will always remain a niche transport method and you cannot build your whole transport policy around it - and I don't think anyone can argue that cycling hasn't been the starting point for all of Will and Sadiq's road transport planning and policy since Covid.