Government's zero emissions ambitions, now government's zero ambition

[malumbu]

I think that says it all.

We will move from world leaders in electric vehicles to also rans,  It does not give a signal to overseas' investors that Britain is the place to do business.  Don't just listen to me, this is what the experts in the industry say including Ford and the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders say. 

Ford's UK chair Lisa Brankin criticised the move. She said the original 2030 target "is a vital catalyst to accelerate Ford into a cleaner future", adding the company had already invested £430m in upgrading its UK plants to produce electric cars.

"Our business needs three things from the UK government, ambition, commitment, and consistency. A relaxation of 2030 would undermine all three," she said in response to the BBC reporting the prime minister was considering weakening several green commitments, to save money.

Stellantis, which owns Vauxhall, Peugeot, Citroen and Fiat, said it was "committed to achieve 100% zero emission new car and van sales in the UK and Europe by 2030", regardless of any delay to the ban.

But it added "clarity is required from governments" over such issues.

Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufactures and Traders (SMMT), said consumers would be sent an "incredibly confusing" message due to the delay.

"The concern now is, does this cause consumers to delay their purchase [of an electric car]?," he told the Today programme.

Simon Williams, head of policy at the RAC motoring group, said the announcement of the delay risked "slowing down both the momentum the motor industry has built up in switching to electric".

My favourite (unattributed personal views from the sector and certainly not published):  What an appalling, disingenuous statement… his press conference was delivered like a bedtime story to a large group of children.  There’s certainly one thing Britain is world class at: delivering delusional policy announcements.

Starmer, please don't follow suit. 

Just to add I would never have thought I would have wished for Johnson to be back, well on this issue anyway......

[Spartacus]

Let's be honest Mal 

It's a political announcement, the motor industry is moving towards the 2030 electric target as regardless of what we set, Europe and other countries are moving at a pace towards electric vehicles and a manufacturer isn't going to set up a separate petrol production line just for the UK. In 2030, regardless of the announcement yesterday, it will be very hard to buy a new petrol or diesel car. 

However the delay does give the national grid a bit more time to upgrade the network and generation facilities as it has become obvious that the current inferstructure won't be able to cope if we all switch to electric cars overnight.

 

[Rockets]

The problem is this has now become THE political hot potato and this was inevitable - it's a ludicrous decision but the Tories are clutching at whatever they can. Travel, and particularly that done by car, is going to become a major, if not the major, manifesto item for all parties whether they want it or not - and all of this was born in the Uxbridge by-election and the mess it created for Sadiq and Keir.

 

I know there is another thread on 20mph in Wales but those types of decisions by Labour administrations will now become part of the election narrative. I was recently travelling along the elevated section of the Westway and that is now 20mph - which is utterly ludicrous but a very real example to everyone about what happens when ideology gets in the way of pragmatism - and this stuff sticks, which is why the Tories are making such a huge issue about motoring. They have clearly done their research that if you want to try and get people onside show them you are the champion for the driver - it will probably win you votes (at a time when they are desperate for any votes at all) and it puts Labour in a challenging position - as Labour found to theirs, and our, cost in 2019 the Islington Corbynites are not at all reflective of the lives or views of the majority and in most parts of the country people rely on their cars far more than us Londoners do.

[malumbu]

I've just had to leave watching QT on catch up due to the lack of knowledge by most of the panel and by the audience.  I don't know why there is so much mass ignorance about net zero.

Some brief history.  As the UK motoring industry has contracted over recent decades the UK has become more niche, whether it is making Ford engines for much of Europe in Bridgend and Dagenham, or the high tech innovations particularly in the West Midlands.  On the latter we have become world leader.  We've had the target of no new conventional car sales by 2030 for a good ten years, and this has been well on trajectory.  Johnson decided to ban the sales (before this it was all about market conditions) so he could show how much better the UK was that the rest of Europe.  He didn't need to do that but he did.  Similarly under May we announced how we could do things much better in terms of farming and the natural environment now we were not shackled by EU legislation.  Well that proved a great success didn't it....

Four years ago things were looking so positive when government published their Road to Zero Strategy https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/739460/road-to-zero.pdf, and we were amongst world leaders in connected and autonomous vehicles, and mobility as a service.  I had to pinch myself but this was under May, and at the launch which I attended Secretary's of States were tripping over each other to be part of this.

What on earth has happened since?  This cannot just be down to Covid.  From our net zero ambitions to zero ambition in a few years.  And we will lose out in terms of our high tech industries. 

Back to your hobby horse Rocks. Mayor Khan has the authority to introduce a measure to reduce the number of older polluting cars on the streets.  This will never be a popular decision in the outer boroughs.  So what?  And Starmer could have simply said that this was a local decision, and there are difficult conversations to be had about reducing both emissions of pollutants and carbon. 

We fundamentally disagree on car ownership Rocks.  If it was just about utility then we'd see far more small city cars on our roads and many more would use Zip and other car clubs.  It's a dream, the motor industry has been selling a dream well beyond before our lifetime.  So if you have the money then why not indulge yourself?  Well you are free to but don't pretend that it is essential to have a certain type of car or a car at all.  In my 20mph thread I said that a small majority of Welsh live in urban areas, according to various publications over 80% of the UK population live in urban areas, so no, cars are only essential for a minority of the population.

Whilst I am peed off on how this will affect technology and innovation in the motoring sector, I'm far more upset on the wider announcements eg phasing out gas boilers.

Time for bed. I could go on and likely will. 

 

 

 

 

[CPR Dave]

What Ford say is utterly irrelevant tbh.

They haven't made a car in the UK for over 20 years and never will make one here again.

In fact they sacked 20% of their work force here earlier this year and have plans to sack twice as many again in the next two years.

They make their cars in Turkeyi and Spain so who cares what they say.

[malumbu]

This goes back to my early comment about the level of ignorance.  Car making has long since been a global industry.  Whilst since the 80s and governments have run down our manufacturing sector in favour of the service industries, the UK has become more specialist in terms of production  hence Ford make most of their diesel engines for Europe in the UK.  Coupled to that we weren't very good at mass production of cars in most of the UK's factories which was another factor in relocating.  Of course that is a sweeping statement as there are some better run factories nowadays such as Cowley and Sunderland.

But if you know better CPR.....

[Rockets]

Bottom-line is that the catalyst for the electrification of car models is not being driven, pardon the pun, by bans on sales of petrol and diesel cars and climate change agendas but by the very real threat posed to EU car manufacturers, and those who sell cars in Europe, by their Chinese counterparts and brands like Tesla - who embraced EVs in a way the incumbents didn't.

Edited September 22, 2023 by Administrator
Removed quote of paragraph which was removed from earlier post

[malumbu]

It's was not the threat, this was already happening before the UK and the EU came up with bans. Many manufacturers have embraced this such as Volvo and VW - JLR who were the major who were happy for postponement of the ban being an exception.  Drivers like electric cars (once they have sat down and driven one), and once the second had price starts to tumble they will be far more affordable so that isn't an issue (as well as prices coming down due to economies of scale).

Whatever people think about the 'dirty, polluting Chinese' they will be ahead of the game in green technologies, they are already manufacturing electric buses for the UK (the wonderfully named BYD or Build Your Dreams) and BYD and MG are targeting fairly successfully the lower end of the market.

The Leaf built in Washington is a great success and, certainly in the recent past, and the ideal city car (far more competitors now particularly as VW comes up to speed).

So a Tory dog's dinner.  Again.

[Rockets]

As I was saying - the Tories are trying to create a "we support the car driver" narrative and actually, in terms of lifting the ban on petrol and diesel sales, this will do little to impact the direction of travel for the car industry - they are well on the EV path already - it's just a Tory tactic to try and heap pressure on Labour as they have stuck themselves clearly to the anti-car/in favour of active travel mast and the Tories clearly feel this is an Achilles heal for them - as Uxbridge demonstrated a pro-car agenda (rightly or wrongly) will get more votes. The leak of Sunak's change was clearly done by the Tories as a kite-flying exercise so they could assess how people were reacting and course-correct if necessary. Their polling must have suggested it was creating the impact they wanted.

BTW VW just dropped the price of an ID3 to $18,000 (£15,000) in China yet exactly the same car starts at £36,000 in the UK - this is how much pressure the incumbents are under. Even Tesla keeps dropping their prices in China.

[first mate]

Whatever the global situation, it is evident that Southwark Council will be gunning for you whatever kind of car you own. Listen to the last part of the Environment scrutiny session in July, where Cll Margy Newens monologues about how policy and penalties on tailpipe emissions will likely be superseded by scrutiny of EV emissions ( tires, brake, road dust particulates) " we got it wrong" she says. So think twice before investing in an EV because once the scales are tipped in favour of EV ownership, Southwark will be knocking on your door.

[malumbu]

Wrong thread FM.  There are plenty of others having a go at Southwark.  This one is about national government.  (Rather alarmist post by the way.  Not worth commenting whatever thread it was on!)

Edited September 26, 2023 by malumbu

[legalalien]

Actually I think FM’s post raises an interesting point. While central government’s view on net zero / transport policy has been aligned with the view of local government, councils have had lots of scope to pursue policies like Southwark’s “discourage car” policy, without the risk of being called out by central government. With Sunak’s regime now “on the side of the motorist”, head office might be tempted to take some symbolic actions to reinforce their position (for example tweaking guidance on parking powers under RTRA to make it clear that they are not to be used for the purpose of making car use more difficult (!)). Am sure there are other areas where they could act to reinforce their political position (conditions attached to funding various council transport plans maybe?)

[heartblock]

The Parliamentary Tory Party are panicking about losing the next election, so are trying to invent differences between a very centrist-right leaning Labour Party, hence this disappointing and fundamentally stupid idea of dropping green policy... Labour by the way have also dropped and/or watered down policy.

If I was a car manufacturer or a company thinking of building/investing or supplying green, low emission goods or services, I would want to know the UK’s plan for the next 10 years so I could plan my costs, staff and materials.

As the UK are all over the place, I would invest my time and money in another Country.

[Rockets]

Agree, and they are clutching at anything they can to try and deflect from the anti-Tory mood board. I hate to credit the Tories but it is a political master-stroke as, if people start to buy it, then it puts Labour in a tight spot and makes transport policy the key election issue. If people don't buy it then the Tories are hosed but they were hosed anyway - a wounded political animal will do odd things.

And Legal and FM are absolutely right, the national agenda is very relevant to the local agenda (and FM yes the govt and councils will start coming for electric cars - they will start paying roadtax from 2025). Councils like Southwark used the national agenda (Covid) to mould and manipulate the process for implementation of LTNs, CPZs etc - and they were able to hide a multitude of planning sins under the umbrella of social distancing and emergency orders. But now the Tories have clearly declared war on those who initiated the "war on cars" and the worm will likely turn because all of those planning sins could now come under scrutiny and analysis and whilst local councils won't care too much Labour HQ will because they will not want to see Labour councils getting scrutiny that adds fuel to the Tory "there's a war on cars and Labour are the ones initiating it" rhetoric.

 

How ironic that Boris' demise has seemingly given the Tories their platform for the election.

 

 

[legalalien]

Turned on the TV to see a Welsh conservative rep talking about the problems with the new Labour imposed 20mph limit in Wales and the fact that one of the bus companies is having to reschedule / reduce services asa result. Rockets, I think you are onto something.

[snowy]

Except that they massively lost the Senedd no confidence vote against the changes last night. 
 

 

[legalalien]

I meant onto something in terms of the conservative strategy. Whether it works or not is a different thing altogether!

[Rockets]

Snowy - the Tories clearly knew it would fail but it was used by them as another tool to up the "Labour's war on drivers" narrative. And look how the Labour leadership (in light of a claimed 440,000 strong petition against the measures) are having to say they will listen to concerns - what they meant to say was "we will listen and make changes if we and Labour HQ think this is going to cost us votes in the general election".

 

Moving forward I am not sure who will be looking more closely at what happened in areas like Southwark to find the flaws in the LTN and CPZ strategies: the Tories or Labour HQ - either are likely to make it rather uncomfortable for the council and councillors as they probably know they are sitting on a ticking time bomb. Maybe we will read about it in the inevitable book from one of the councillors: "LTNs and my role in the general election" 😉

 

We are getting to the point where political parties start cleaning their manifestos as they go searching for votes ahead of an election - Labour's u-turn on private school tax status is a clear example of this - they are doing the maths and equating policies to votes won or lost and the Tories clearly want to make car use a massive Achilles heal for Labour.

 

This comment below from the BBC's political correspondent in this article sums it up perfectly https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-66929515

 

 

Senedd arithmetic meant this motion was bound to fail.

The 20mph law was in Labour and Plaid Cymru's manifestos.

It would have required a screeching U-turn for any of their members to vote against Lee Waters.

That won't surprise the Conservatives.

This is part of a broader strategy to try to convince drivers that the Tories are on your side.

We saw something similar with the row about the Ulez charge in London.

[malumbu]

My fear is that it won't be middle England but left leaning professionals that keep this incompetent lot in power.  Don't let this be on you conscious.  Maybe now time to take all this stuff you don't like on the chin for the benefit of society. I'm not sure that Starmer has the balls to respond to what will come out at Tory conference next week including central government overriding decisions, right or wrong, taken by local government.  Heavens Sunak is pathetic 

In my view, not that of this site 

Edited September 28, 2023 by malumbu

[legalalien]

Guardian and Times now both saying that Rishi is going to give a speech about restricting local govt powers to curb car use, including restricting powers to impose ANPR fines in some unspecified way. 
 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/sep/28/rishi-sunak-expected-to-limit-powers-of-councils-in-england-to-curb-car-use-20mph-speed-limit-traffic-camera-fines 

 

Rishi Sunak expected to block new 20mph zones.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/1804b89e-5e57-11ee-a0fe-c89e2badddf3?shareToken=761316ee846d235bca6f0ae4f0a3f087

Also in the Telegraph I believe but I don’t have a subscription.

That Guardian statement at the end of the article where they ask for a financial contribution seems to have got a lot longer and angrier at some point!

[malumbu]

he's going to announce this at conference. He's going to centralise control rather than allow local decisions.  This is what some of you seem to want - carcentric transport policy.  You can drive your kids to school at 30mph, and if you hit the rare kid walking to school so what?  They should have been in a car,  I'm avoiding using the language of what I think about this shower.

[snowy]

Yougov polling from yesterday 

Con: 24% (-3% following the roll back on environmental pledges)
Lab: 45%
LD: 11%
reform: 8%
green: 7%
SNP: 3%
 

it's going to have to be a big dead cat. 
 

Cones Hotline 2.0

Edited September 29, 2023 by snowy

[heartblock]

I think if we had PR the Greens would poll much higher. I’ll vote Green anyway, even if I was in a swing area I couldn’t hold my nose and vote for Kid Starver. Labour will get in for DaWN or whatever it will be after boundary changes. I doubt that much will improve or change under Sir Kieth.

[Rockets]

Malumbu - I don't think anyone on here has suggested they want a car-centric policy I think what you will find is that this is born from the awful way that councils around the country have treated residents - the Tories are merely trying to grab at anything they can so the blame, as far as I am concerned, lies with those who have tried to steam-roller these policies in without proper engagement with constituents - they are now reaping what they sowed. My fear from the outset has always been that the way councils like Southwark have managed this would backfire and actually set the active travel cause back significantly and, I am afraid, those fears are now starting to be realised.

 

Who wants to bet how long it will be before the Tories turn their attention to the amount of money Sadiq and Will have spent putting in cycle infrastructure and the fact that the latest DFT figures show that there has been a continued decline in cycling numbers in London year on year - the numbers are still higher than pre-pandemic (nationally they are now lower than pre-pandemic) but probably not enough for the £1bn spend in London not to come under the microscope.

[malumbu]

By blaming Southwark and TfL for the national picture you have fallen into Sunak's trap.

This is about how awful our government is.  It doesn't matter a jot to me about Khan, Southwark or any other Labour authority. Sunak senses that many reasonable people may vote for him and is exploiting that 

I'm currently on a185 bunched with another 185 on Champion Hill.  Annoying but not vote Tory due to that.

Edited September 29, 2023 by malumbu