Turney Road closure scrapped

[Administrator]

The 'General ED' section of the forum is designed to be a useful resource for the people in the local area to discuss the latest topics specific to East Dulwich. This topic (regarding Turney Road closure) was a reasonable candidate to be in this section because:

• It is new information
• The road closure probably affects some ED residents (the road closure is in SE21, but its few 100m away from SE22, so would still affect nearby roads). 

 

The reason for the LTN Discussion topic being moved to the Lounge is not a conspiracy - its because its a long running, general topic which ended up up being filled with information not relevant to the area. Furthermore, a massive 2,200 reply topic is pretty inaccessible for anyone new to the forum, so it ends up just being a back and forth between a few forum members who are passionate about the subject. In general, I'd prefer the General ED forum to contain shorter lived, focused topics about breaking news, rather than seeing the LTN Behemoth topic constantly resurfacing to the top being bumped by a handful of contributors.

The Lounge is still one of the most viewed sections of the website, so its not like all LTN stuff is being suppressed. The people who care enough about LTNs will find and contribute to it (the EDF topic is on the first page of Google for the term 'LTN Discussion'!). If in the future there's any significant breaking news which directly relates to an East Dulwich LTN, then of course it might be deserving of a new topic in General ED.

So hopefully that explains my point of view. 

[Rockets]

Admin, thanks for the clarification - I don’t (and I suspect many others won’t either) agree with it but it’s your forum and you determine the rules - I always felt the forum, by its very design, was self-policing as those items that people posted on got bumped up but those that didn’t dropped. We know there has been pressure exerted on previous admins by those who have a vested interest  to see the LTN debate disappear forever and those admins policed it by not allowing multiple threads discussing LTN issues which seemed to work and kept a single thread for those wishing to discuss on the main forum - those that didn’t care or got annoyed by it could ignore it.

 

The beauty of the forum is that it is not confined solely to East Dulwich so your explanation about why the Turney Road discussion was allowed is a little concerning - do not take what is great about this forum - that it reaches far beyond the borders of East Dulwich - away from it. It’s never solely been about items specific to East Dulwich only - on any subject. In fact, some of your most loyal posters don’t actually live in East Dulwich, Dulwich or Southwark!

We all love the forum and were so pleased when it was rescued, some of us like LTNs, some us hate LTNs and the voices posting (on both sides of the debate) are reflective of the views of people in the wider community so it is important that the forum continues to be the voice for it - whatever position people take (within reason of course!).

 

I am sure everyone will respect your rules and if the LTN discussion has to be confined to the Lounge then so be it - some people will be happy about that, some will be annoyed by that - you can’t keep everyone happy all the time! Keep up the good work!

 

P.S. if Malumbu isn’t prepared to self-police their awful mental health posts may be you could for them - pretty sure that must contravene a forum rule.

[mr.chicken]

15 hours ago, Rockets said:

And look what happened near the LTNs - miles increased. Weren't we promised by the pro-LTN lobby and councillors that LTNs reduced traffic for everyone?

Mean daily km:

Control: +0.6

Near LTN:  +0.3

In LTN: -0.7

Traffic is up post pandemic (control), but up less near LTNs and down inside LTNs.

In other words LTNs reduce traffic relative to the control not just inside but nearby too. Sounds like a success to me.

 

[Earl Aelfheah]

It also measures all miles travelled. It includes journeys out of London (which likely are the longest journeys and one's that the LTN isn't going to impact). So for local journey's the effect is probably larger than the average 6% reduction.

It's also only one study, which is part of a much bigger body of work, all of which suggest LTNs are effective.

[Rockets]

51 minutes ago, mr.chicken said:

Mean daily km:

Control: +0.6

Near LTN:  +0.3

In LTN: -0.7

Traffic is up post pandemic (control), but up less near LTNs and down inside LTNs.

In other words LTNs reduce traffic relative to the control not just inside but nearby too. Sounds like a success to me.

 

Well that's your interpretation.

 

Here's mine: Driving is down in the LTNs but up outside of the LTNs as drivers try to find other ways around them. Remember this is research by the same group that claimed there was no evidence of boundary roads seeing increases - https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jan/19/low-traffic-neighbourhoods-boundary-roads-london.

 

Even Peter Walker (who must have seen this thread and posted story! 😉 ) acknowledges there has been an increase in driving outside the LTNs and says:

The authors of the study, led by Dr Anna Goodman, an epidemiologist from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the increase in average driving outside the LTNs appeared to be due to Covid and other external factors, rather than people skirting the LTNs

"due to Covid"  doesn't tally with what Lambeth was saying about the overall volumes in traffic across the borough throughout much of  the period this new report covers. Lambeth said this in all of the Systra monitoring reports on the various LTNs in their borough (remember Southwark said the same thing in their Systra report?)

 

Traffic has been consistently lower than pre-pandemic, with particularly pronounced drops during lockdowns. 

 

Are we now to believe that was not the case?

And my point remains, LTNs were promised to reduce traffic for everyone and this research suggests they don't. Also, how do you explain the increase in car ownership within the LTNs - is that not counter-intuitive and wasn't that one of the promised outcomes that car ownership reduced within them?

[Earl Aelfheah]

It's the interpretation of the academics who undertook the study actually. But I'm sure you are more qualified to interpret their findings than they are.

[Rockets]

Yes and it appears you have the same bias as they do! 😉

 

But does my interpretation not hold any weight at all in your mind?

 

Does the fact that numerous (both Southwark and Lambeth) council LTN monitoring reports have said overall traffic levels are lower across their boroughs not make you wonder why then Aldred et al are now claiming that increases in traffic outside the LTNs is "due to Covid and other external factors". 

 

Something isn't adding up is it and if it is true that overall traffic levels have been down across the boroughs then what might be causing the increases in traffic outside of the LTNs around the LTNs.........?

[mr.chicken]

1 hour ago, Rockets said:

But does my interpretation not hold any weight at all in your mind?

No.

 

[exdulwicher]

1 hour ago, Rockets said:

Does the fact that numerous (both Southwark and Lambeth) council LTN monitoring reports have said overall traffic levels are lower across their boroughs not make you wonder why then Aldred et al are now claiming that increases in traffic outside the LTNs is "due to Covid and other external factors". 

Other way around.

It's not an increase outside LTNs, it's a decrease inside.

This applies across all sorts of studies - you have one control group where you have no interventions and one test group where you put in place an intervention. Could be an LTN, it could equally well be something like having 2 groups of mice and you give one group a growth hormone.

After a while you look at your intervention; the control group is broadly "this is what would have happened to everyone without the intervention", the test group is " here is what happened with an intervention".

Outside LTNs, with no restriction on driving, people continue to drive.

Inside LTNs, where driving is restricted in some way and alternatives like walking and cycling made easier, more convenient, people gradually shift behaviour.

None of this is rocket science.

Unlike your version (let's call it Rockets science...) which is wrong.

[Rockets]

Ha ha...not the first time I have been wrong about something I can assure you (cue pile-on from the usual suspects)! 😉

 

So what does Peter Walker mean when he says:

The authors of the study, led by Dr Anna Goodman, an epidemiologist from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the increase in average driving outside the LTNs appeared to be due to Covid and other external factors, rather than people skirting the LTNs

 

Also, can you explain what this table below is showing then?

 

The Near LTN figures have risen from a mean daily km of 20.3 pre-LTNs to 20.7 post-LTNs and the Control Area has risen from 20.4 pre to 21.0 post - how is that not an increase?

 

Also. at over 200m away from the LTNs do you feel the control group is far enough away from the LTN not to be being impacted by them or does that not matter?

 

able 2.Average daily driving time, pre- and post-LTN implementation: main analysis

	Inside the LTNs	Near the LTNs	Control area
No. cars and vans in analysis, pre/post	1700 / 2025	1352 / 1658	5523 / 6598
Mean daily km (SE), pre	20.3 (0.3)	20.3 (0.4)	20.4 (0.2)
Mean daily km (SE), post	19.6 (0.3)	20.7 (0.4)	21.0 (0.2)
Change in km (SE), post minus pre	-0.7 (0.5)	0.3 (0.5)	0.6 (0.3)
Difference-in-differences change in km (95% CI), relative to the control area	-1.3 (-2.4, -0.3)	-0.3 (-1.4, 0.9)
p-value for difference-in-differences effect	p=0.01	p=0.64

 

 

Any idea why car ownership has gone up in the LTNs - is that not counter-intuitive?

Edited June 13, 2023 by Rockets

[exdulwicher]

24 minutes ago, Rockets said:

Any idea why car ownership has gone up in the LTNs - is that not counter-intuitive?

It's gone up everywhere.

But by less inside the LTNs than outside.

27 minutes ago, Rockets said:

Near LTN figures have risen from a mean daily km of 20.3 pre-LTNs to 20.7 post-LTNs and the Control Area has risen from 20.4 pre to 21.0 post - how is that not an increase?

I never said it wasn't. That's the control group, you can pretty much assume (with various caveats) that with no interventions, that's what would happen "globally" (ie across the whole area of study) without an intervention.

So your "do nothing" scenario is that driving would increase by 0.6km / day average and car ownership would increase by 10% over that time period.

Your "intervention" scenario (is introducing an LTN) is that the pattern, instead of following the control group trend, has shown a decrease in average daily km and a smaller increase in car ownership.

Outcome (again with caveats) - if you'd have done nothing across the whole area, driving and car ownership everywhere would have increased by the same metric. 

Also overall vehicle mileage is down, ie overall fewer km being driven.

[Rockets]

Got it - but that is counter to the messages being put out by councils monitoring LTNs who have, repeatedly and consistently, said that traffic volumes have been/are lower than they were pre-pandemic.

 

Traffic has been consistently lower than pre-pandemic, with particularly pronounced drops during lockdowns. 

 

And then in Peter Walker's article:

The authors of the study, led by Dr Anna Goodman, an epidemiologist from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the increase in average driving outside the LTNs appeared to be due to Covid and other external factors, rather than people skirting the LTNs

....... is Aldred saying that the increase in the control and near LTNs is from the pre-pandemic or post-pandemic numbers? Because they acknowledge there has been an increase in average driving outside the LTNs - are we presume that is from the lowest pandemic numbers?

 

 

[ab29]

All I know is that the day after LTN was introduced in East Dulwich - especially after Dulwich Village closure - the traffic tripled in front of my flat. I remember talking with neighbours - we thought there must've been a truly serious incident in the area for the traffic to go this bad.

There are no words to describe this ltn idea - how on Earth anyone with even tiny tiny bit of common sense could ever assume that closing roads can force anyone to stop driving? I do not drive - never owned a car and never driven. I walk. Talked to tones of people and not one of them said they stopped driving because the roads have been closed.

It's madness - it's like telling someone from Eastern Europe the communism is great. 

What Southwark council has done is truly scandalous - pandering to cycling lobby, greenwashing, bullying TfL staff, ignoring outcome of the consultation, shoving off people living on the boundary roads with - now - increased traffic and air & noise pollution because of the so-called ltn, having no proof to show that so-called ltn work - and constituents money wasted on all this

 

Edited June 13, 2023 by ab29

[ab29]

@Administrator "In general, I'd prefer the General ED forum to contain shorter lived, focused topics about breaking news, rather than seeing the LTN Behemoth topic constantly resurfacing to the top being bumped by a handful of contributors"

Ok so the first world problems like 'celebrity in sainsbury' or 'wagamama coming to ED' are number one.  I get it but In which case, where do you want the serious, real life issues / discussions to go to?

"topic constantly resurfacing to the top being bumped by a handful of contributor" - this is not true. Most of my friends do not post here (and I've looked it up much less frequently ever since the change)- but that doesn't mean the problem has gone away.

Perhaps it is time to create a separate place / topic / folder for real problems and serious issues.

And isn't it high time to reprimand Malumbu who doesn't even live in Southwark, left alone Dulwich but is constantly spamming here?

Edited June 14, 2023 by ab29

[malumbu]

Glad I have been missed.  Had things to do and also it is Springwatch on the Beeb.  The thread that was supposed to be talking about one scheme that had been dropped has reverted yet again to anti LTNs, and at times a tirade against cyclists.  There is a thread on the Lounge where we can discuss LTNs to our hearts content. I'm happy to join in there but not here.  Others could also start thread on why they hate cyclists.  I'll be putting one up on the Lounge shortly about supporting a challenge to government on reduced spending on active travel.

So from my take there are a few of you who at every opportunity present your views against LTNs, other schemes that could make it more difficult to drive and/or own a car, views that Southwark are corrupt/incompetent/in the pockets of the rich/loony lefties, and also go on about how it is all the cyclists fault/how much you dislike (many) cyclists.

Stepping back this all appears rather extreme and disproportionate.  Hence my suggestion of personal reflection and ways of managing this anger.  Be it CBT, yoga, mindfulness, classical music, meditation, deep breathing etc etc.  many months ago I discussed my earlier obsession over planning which became all consuming.  I'm not sure why I can be more relaxed about this now - something suddenly changed, and there continue to be some horrid (in my view) developments in the area.

Yes there are things that I don't like, particularly on a national and global scale.  But generally I do not need to resort to continued repetitive postings on this forum.  And after one 'FFS get a life' moment decided to try to limit my postings to information/positive views.  It's a struggle at times! 

And please don't lecture me about mental health.  We all have our problems, we all have our demons.  I've had and have close family members with issues.  I've had my fair share of workplace stress.   Fortunately most of us can continue to function without significant/professional help.  And I have and will continue to support some with mental disabilities.  But is always worth looking at our own behaviour and why we get so wound up about certain issues .

 

[first mate]

17 hours ago, Rockets said:

The authors of the study, led by Dr Anna Goodman, an epidemiologist from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the increase in average driving outside the LTNs appeared to be due to Covid and other external factors, rather than people skirting the LTNs

....... is Aldred saying that the increase in the control and near LTNs is from the pre-pandemic or post-pandemic numbers? Because they acknowledge there has been an increase in average driving outside the LTNs - are we presume that is from the lowest pandemic numbers?

 

Hoping to get an answer to this.

I should also add that for me at least, this is not a debate about LTNs in general. I appreciate that general data will be used to support the idea that they work locally. However, my interest is in being persuaded that local LTNs are beneficial to all ED residents equally.

 

 

Edited June 14, 2023 by first mate

[Rockets]

Malumbu - you ask people not to lecture you about mental health yet you're quite happy to do the same to others...is that not mightily hypocritical of you?

 

And I remind you, no-one has lectured you about mental health - we are asking you not to weaponise it.

[ab29]

On 14/06/2023 at 06:50, first mate said:

Hoping to get an answer to this.

I should also add that for me at least, this is not a debate about LTNs in general. I appreciate that general data will be used to support the idea that they work locally. However, my interest is in being persuaded that local LTNs are beneficial to all ED residents equally.

 

If it is beneficial, it is to people already living on quiet roads. Am so tired of this. What does Goodman say to people living on main roads or boundary roads:  "We gonna treat you with extra pollution just because my study need it? Shut up and lump it? Go and die? " Curious. South Circular was build in 1921 - I think everyone is capable to see a difference betwen then and now. 

 

[tiddles]

I am a frequent cyclist in the area (I commute to work 3 days a week on my bike)  I do not like the LTNS as they have created stationary traffic on East Dulwich  Grove which one has to navigate. I then turn down Carlton Ave to the Junction with the lights. This junction now feels very unsafe - the lack of cars means that there is a free for all - the normal rules of the road don't apply. Lots of cyclists ignoring the lights completely, whilst children on bikes/scooters/scateboards are all over the show. Plus of course those cargo bikes jumping the lights)I do, of course, slow down, (and actually obey the cycle lights) but one never knows whats going to happen. 

The south circular is usually stationary (exascerbated by the thames water works) but again, I can use the shared space cycle paths but the pollution is just not good. 

For me the ultimate negative is the affect on public transport... esp any buses using the south circular - such as the P13 which serves alot of the schools in west dulwich. 

I think alot of people are very keen on active travel anyway - take away the traffic jam LTNs and I suspect all the cycle users will continue to increase.