Weather forecasting 2022

[TheManInTheWhiteSuit]

I have been a member of the EDF for many years and this is my first post, here goes.

I received a humorous email the other day which set me thinking about the current state of weather forecasting and I wonder what other people in East Dulwich think.

I am sure I am right in remembering the regular cries from the professional weather forecasters over the years for more cash (our money) to improve their service by the purchase of ever more monstrous and expensive computers and no doubt also ensuring their eye watering salaries ever increase.

On 24 August 2022 Thames Water brought in their hosepipe ban (Temporary Use Ban) and this caused quite a lot of anguish in my home as my wife is partially disabled and not able to use a watering can easily. But without any warning and before I could put any helpful measures in place, the rains came and have continued without much respite until this day.

So if the weather forecasters can forecast, why was Thames Water not aware that hope for the gardener was at hand and there was no need to worry as the wait for rain was to be so short.

However this type of thing has happened before and I really wonder how much things are improving. If I recall correctly the D Day landing weather forecast was well off, in 1976 the day after Parliament enacted the draconian drought control measures the rains started, and continued such that the deficit in underground reserves predicted to last for years was overcome in a few months or so and of course 1987 when even the “on the spot” observations of the general public were derided and the coming of the storm of the century was not included in the forecast. No doubt there have been successes but I worry to think that in 2022, as far as I know, none of the water supply utility companies issued their bans with the comforting words “ do not worry our forecasters tell us that the rains are coming very soon”.

And the humorous email was a list of newspaper headlines never seen, and the one that caught my eye in this respect was : -

Psychic wins the lottery

[Sue]

As I understand it, the problem was that the amount of rain which came after the drought was nowhere near sufficient to restore water stocks in the reservoirs, and that was why the hosepipe ban was not lifted.

I don't know what the situation is now.

Congratulations on your first EDF post!

[malumbu]

Beat me too it Sue, aquifers and rivers are low and take some time to replenish.

Forecasting is not an exact science, there being a large number of natural variables. The need to better forecast the weather (for governments, businesses and the public) helped lead to the early supercomputers so had wider benefits. Weather professionals will be lower paid, than say many in finance.

There is a good article here https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/what/technology/supercomputer The UK Met Office, a government agency, is one of the best in the world, Sadly this was put to out to tender for our national broadcaster and the French company meteo won. I often compare the two.

I've had the pleasure of working with the Met Office on pollution modelling and as you can tell do not like casual criticism.

[ed_pete]

The environment agency produce a monthly report that very comprehensive on water levels across the country.

TLDR- we were still pretty short as at the end of September. Might be better next month.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1111117/Water_Situation_Report_for_England_September_2022.pdf