Anyone with an actual long term vision/plan for the UK?

[diable rouge]

Looks like it's going to be a bumpy ride for everyone now and a possible return to austerity to pay for Ukraine and covid.

 

I guess I shouldn't be surprised that a Brexit apologist shouldn't mention it as having cost implications and a major reason why we're in this mess.

The origin of our current malaise was the Brexit referendum. Charitably, it was a risky bet on a radical shift in our long-established and reasonably successful economic and geopolitical model and the bet has been lost. What we are seeing now is government by sunk-cost fallacy.

The mini-budget provided us with the result of when Brexit 'economics' (which includes trickle down economics that you have personally extolled on here) meets reality, and the subsequent real-time costs therein to the nation's wealth, not to mention how it has trashed further our standing in the world.

The Singapore on Thames fantasists of the IEA and ERG finally met the reality of actual free-markets and were embarrassingly wiped-out in days. The shit didn't just hit the fan, it hit them square on in the face. A busted flush. Switch the lights off on your way out chaps.

Project Fear = Project Reality, the inevitable consequence of 6 years of clapping and cheering the ignoring of rules-based orders, the trashing of parliamentary norms and precedents, undermining the peace process in Northern Ireland and the stability of the Union, the creation of an internal wall of red tape for British business to navigate at extra cost, and so on and so on.

And like the involuntary twitches of a dying body, they even clapped and cheered in the aftermath of Kwarteng's statement, one final denial of realty for old time's sake.

That they would even attempt an economic experiment like this while the country is going through such crises should make even the most ardent Brexiter question them. But here they are, still denying it, still sticking their head in the sand, still blaming it on 'a Remainer plot'.

Meanwhile, back in realty, the rest of us are left with picking-up the bill with a maxed-out credit card that's just been declined...

[diable rouge]

Another one to add to the 'this hasn't aged well' collection...

 

Suffice to say the hysteria this week has been OTT

[TheCat]

Another one to add to the 'this hasn't aged well' collection...

 

Suffice to say the hysteria this week has been OTT

 

It does amuse me how much I must irritate some of you guys on here to drive you to often go out of your way to have an unprompted, gratuitous pop at me🤣

In any case... I stand-by that comment. And what has happened in the ensuing time serves only to reinforce it for me.... Starts with market overreaction to mini-Budget, largely driven by appalling messaging and communication, then subsequently driving hysterical media reaction, mostly from journalists who know appalling little about 'the market' ...and then it all became vicious circle/sef-fulfilling narrative and it was all too late for liz and Kwasi...

But they've only themselves to blame... Trying to do too much all at once, without adequate communication. In my view, with much more careful, progressive implementation over time, and better communication (liz wasn't even sighted until 2-3 days after the announcement)...the market wouldn't have batted much of an eyelid in my view, as the underlying bare bones of what they wanted to do wasn't particularly radical....other than the energy price cap becuase of its immense size... Although that wasn't what seemed to rile people up at all... It was the 'massive' 2bn quid impact of top tax rate change, or the 'radical' move to leave corporation tax and national insurance at exactly the same levels as where they were 6 months ago....oh and let's not forget the 'outrageous' decision to drop the basic rate of tax by an entire 1p.....

They never had control of the narrative... Hysterical ott reaction with no effective pushback ensues and is allowed to become the 'truth'...so they were finished before they got started...

As I said in the full text of my original post which DR trawled back to, in order to try and have his 'gotcha' moment (about halfway down page 1 of this thread for anyone struggling to find the fairly innocuous original post).... none of this is meant to imply I liked the mini-Budget.... But ott and hysteria is exactly what has happened...

[Sephiroth]

Hark at Jeremy corbyn here

“Starts with market overreaction to mini-Budget, largely driven by appalling messaging and communication, then subsequently driving hysterical media reaction, mostly from journalists who know appalling little about 'the market' ...and then it all became vicious circle/sef-fulfilling narrative and it was all too late for “

[diable rouge]

Ah, the good ol' 'bad comms', I'd already noticed that Julian Jessop & Gerard Lyons et al have tried playing that particular card while frantically trying to row back to save their 'reputations'

Larry the Cat talks more sense...

[zerkalo]

• 
  [list=]
• £45 billion of unfunded tax cuts

• 
  [list=]
• Removal of bonus cap for bankers and scrapping top 45% income tax

• 
  [list=]
• Pound sent tumbling

[list=]Interest rates rising, mortgages more expensive for millions

 

But yeah, sure...nothing too radical in there, just the implementation of bat shit crazy libertarian policies of the Institute of Economic Affairs. Soz for the bad comms, but let's move on.

Delusional and despicable.

[TheCat]

• 
  [list=]
• £45 billion of unfunded tax cuts

• 
  [list=]
• Removal of bonus cap for bankers and scrapping top 45% income tax

• 
  [list=]
• Pound sent tumbling

[list=]Interest rates rising, mortgages more expensive for millions

 

But yeah, sure...nothing too radical in there, just the implementation of bat shit crazy libertarian policies of the Institute of Economic Affairs. Soz for the bad comms, but let's move on.

Delusional and despicable.

 

Nearly half of your list are 'outcomes/consequences'.... Not feature of the mini-Budget.... But anyway....

Your post is a great example of how it's now just accepted that it was all some 'crazy libertarian experiement'.... My point is... It really wasn't.... It just too much all at once, and haphazardly released with little to no conxern over how the market would react...

So top rate of tax change... 2bn impact... Pffft... Who cares? ...certainly not the bond or currency market.. But it was unessesaary and made an easy stick for opponents to beat truss and kawrteng with. In anycase... It meant the top rate of tax would be at the same level as it was through all but the last few months of the last labour government..... Blair and brown... Those crazy libertarians huh?

Removal of the bonus cap... Poor politics to be sure... Will make bugger all difference... The proportion of the 10s of thousand of cityworkers who potentially could get paid more than 2x their base salary as a bonus with no cap would be in the very low single digits. And again... This wod have had zero impact on the bond or currency markets... Why would a bond investor care about a private company's remuneration policy?

No obr forecast was indeed stupid and falls under the umbrella of poor communication and implementation.

45 billion of 'unfunded' tax cut.... Let's ignore the fact that there is no such thing as unfunded tax cuts...there is only unfunded spending.. If I let you keep more of your own money, would you say that extra money which you earned is unfunded? .... But anyway, that's a bugbear of mine... So petty minutiae aside......As I said above the only thing that could be considered radical was the potential 150-200bn energy plan (which you haven't even mentioned). They probably could have got away with 45b in isolation to be honest... For a country who's got spends about 1 trillion quid a year... 45bn is probably sellable if done sensibly.....also consider as I mentioned that over half that cut was just leaving rates at levels they were at 6 months ago... hardly crazy liberartian territory...

It was a s! T show to be sure, as I said, too much all at once, incoherent and poorly justified.... But your post sort of proves my point that the narrative allowed to take hold (and has now become 'truth' for many people) was that the 'bat sh!t crazy libertarians'are off their rocker.... I'd agree with you if there actually were any meaningful crazy liberartian policies within the dogs breakfast that they announed....

[diable rouge]

If someone truly knows the markets they will know that the markets look at things dispassionately. It didn't matter how well the mini-budget was commed, because the slickest of presentations couldn't hide that there was a circa £70 billion fiscal black hole.

To the markets it also didn't matter whether the tax cuts were for the richest or poorest, because to them it was a simple case of 'bad housekeeping' i.e. economic/financial incompetence.

The party that many people see as being the most competent in handling the economy, showed economic/financial ineptitude on a scale that would make a Corbyn Gov blush, and the markets reacted accordingly.

One shouldn't be surprised at such blame-gaming, Brexit itself was built on this sense of 'otherness', that it was someone else's fault i.e. demonising the EU, pesky foreigners etc. So why should Brexit economics be any different.

For ''That's not my Brexit'', now read ''That's not my Brexit economics''...

[diable rouge]

55 Tufton Street....

[Sephiroth]

it's funny how when the budget was announced it was the libertarian Tuftonites who were all cock a hoop and declaring it best budget ever

And everyone else sucked their teeth and went "f&&& that!"

even tho the budget didn't "contain any libertarian announcements"

so it's quite an amazing coincidence (she also promised "more to follow" around time of the budget remember_)

[TheCat]

@DR..... In your rush to mock me I think you miss that actually agree on far more than you seem to think...not everything of course🤣....

 

If someone truly knows the markets they will know that the markets look at things dispassionately

.

I think you've just proven that you perhaps don't 'truly know' the 'markets'. Yes... In theory the market will immediately, perfect price every price of new information...but the market doesn't work like they tell you in 6th form economics. If the market (any publically traded market - shares, currency, fixed income, commodities etc) was 100 efficient' then no one would ever make or lose money. Don't forget these are the same markets which in no way predicted one of the biggest financial crises of all time....

 

It didn't matter how well the mini-budget was commed, because the slickest of presentations couldn't hide that there was a circa £70 billion fiscal black hole.

 

Sure...dont entirely disagree... But it was more like a £270bn black hole. The tax policies they might have actually got away wi... Given As I've said over and over...each of the tax policies weren't particularly radical (no one seems to actually have made an argument against that here I should add) .. But look at all you guys commenting who are under the impression that the tax policies were. The result of.. 'crazy libertarians!' or 'failed brexit economics'.... How about just a poorly timed and communicated economic announcement?....

 

To the markets it also didn't matter whether the tax cuts were for the richest or poorest, because to them it was a simple case of 'bad housekeeping' i.e. economic/financial incompetence.

 

Totally agreed. That's making my point above in different language.

 

The party that many people see as being the most competent in handling the economy, showed economic/financial ineptitude on a scale that would make a Corbyn Gov blush, and the markets reacted accordingly.

 

Agreed. Except about the corbyn bit.

 

One shouldn't be surprised at such blame-gaming, Brexit itself was built on this sense of 'otherness', that it was someone else's fault i.e. demonising the EU, pesky foreigners etc. So why should Brexit economics be any different.

For ''That's not my Brexit'', now read ''That's not my Brexit economics''...

 

As all my well learned remainers friends often ask... What specific policy announcement in the mini-Budget could the UK government have NOT announced prior to brexit? Answer.... they could have made exactly the same set of announcements prior to brexit, so how was this a 'brexit economics' budget. Because brexit supporting politicians were behind it?...

I believe the Potential advantages of brexit come in the form of rationalising regulation and inveatment incentivisatio policies across different industries (which I've said many many times before over the years.. Some people might call them 'supply side reforms')... Nearly 3 Years later, and (for various reasons) the government still hasn't made any material changes on this front... Truss and kawrteng talked about detailing a raft of them later this year, but now they'll never have the chance.

You can mock the idea that different leave voters having different views of how brexit can be best leveraged...(It seems to be your 'go to' soundbite when you want to sound smug and dismissive).... But its another example of something not quite being the 'gotcha' that you think it is... Umm yeah.... Of course people will disagree about how to manage the economy, even two leave voters. Go find me two random voters for any political party or cause and let's see how much they disagree on. OR...putting it another way... .let's just imagine we were still in the EU... Would every remain voter have the exact same view on how the economy should be managed? Or would be a case of 'not my remain economics'.....

[TheCat]

it's funny how when the budget was announced it was the libertarian Tuftonites who were all cock a hoop and declaring it best budget ever

And everyone else sucked their teeth and went "f&&& that!"

even tho the budget didn't "contain any libertarian announcements"

so it's quite an amazing coincidence (she also promised "more to follow" around time of the budget remember_)

 

True to form (at least you've been consistent for 6 years) your comments are based on how other people reacted based on vague labels you've ascribed to them....ans don't actually address any issue directly yourself. Is your purpose to actually make an argument? Or just dismiss and mock people who disagree with you?

By contrast, DR and I clearly have combative online back and forth... But at least he has a few of his own thoughts to share with the group....

[Sephiroth]

"True to form (at least you've been consistent for 6 years)"

I'll take my record over last 6 years over yours any time

[TheCat]

Haha... You need to actually say something of substance first before you can have a record...

[diable rouge]

As all my well learned remainers friends often ask... What specific policy announcement in the mini-Budget could the UK government have NOT announced prior to brexit? Answer.... they could have made exactly the same set of announcements prior to brexit, so how was this a 'brexit economics' budget. Because brexit supporting politicians were behind it?...

Were it not for Brexit* the mini-budget wouldn't have made it past a Tufton St sponsored big tent event at a Tory Party conference, let alone into Kwarteng's red briefcase.

Brexit is the enabler, just as it has been for the despicable Rwanda policy or for the NIP Bill. Are you seriously telling me that a Bill that will intentionally break a binding trade agreement and international law would've been put before parliament pre-Brexit? Not on your nelly.

These things have happened as a direct consequence of the Brexit we ended up with, it's processes and what it's ushered in politically under the Brexit umbrella.

This mini-budget was very much the economic manifestation of the need to conjure some kind of 'Brexit dividend' to sell to the masses.

*Just to reiterate, I'm referring to the hard Brexit we ended up with. Had it been, say, a Norway style deal, then we wouldn't be having this discussion because we would have far more serious and sensible politicians in charge, together with membership of the SM and the actual economic growth that brings.

I get why you want to try and dissociate Brexit from this debacle, but the bottom line is that the majority of people won't have even have heard of supply side reforms let alone know what they are, and when it comes to the next GE they will simply ask themselves ''Am I better off than before, did this Brexit Gov deliver what it promised?''

Because this is a Brexit Gov no matter how you try and paint it otherwise. Johnson rode into Downing Street on the back of Brexit, so a lot of what they say and do, especially economically and and how that affects people's prosperity, will inevitably be related back to Brexit...

[Sephiroth]

“

Because this is a Brexit Gov no matter how you try and paint it otherwise. Johnson rode into Downing Street on the back of Brexit, ”

To be more explicit. These ministers are the dregs left after anyone with half a brain (or people who questioned the totality of Brexit) were defenestrated

If we were still in eu? We would have a much much more intelligent, capable collection of mps governing us, not this bewildered array of the deranged

[Sephiroth]

Just today we have this from the Home Secretary. The Home Secretary!

“Suella Braverman: “I’m afraid it’s the Labour Party, it’s the Lib Dems, it’s the Coalition of chaos, it’s the Guardian-reading, Tofu-eating, wokerati - dare I say the anti-growth coalition that we have to thank for the disruption we are seeing on our roads today!””

This person is not working for the country, dealing with 21st issues. She is a columnist for the sun in 2001

[Sephiroth]

And as for the bloviated, self-important claims around Brexit that cat makes? The British public don’t agree. His future isn’t the future they want

(Then again his future isn’t what he wants either as he is f@@@ing off back to a country that has minimal trade barriers with its nearby geographical neighbours. I know, mad right?)

[TheCat]

And as for the bloviated, self-important claims around Brexit that cat makes? The British public don’t agree. His future isn’t the future they want

(Then again his future isn’t what he wants either as he is f@@@ing off back to a country that has minimal trade barriers with its nearby geographical neighbours. I know, mad right?

)

This reads pretty clearly as dogwhistle xenophobia.... perhaps you're not all that different from those brexit voters you so despise.....

[Sephiroth]

“Dog whistle xenophobia”

Not a single ounce from me - want to back

Up that claim?

You are leaving this country having helped nuke trading deals with our nearest partners

You are going to a country which has not done that

Where is the xenophobic bit?

[TheCat]

Read this... Then read your post again...

What Is Othering?

Othering is a phenomenon in which some individuals or groups are defined and labeled as not fitting in within the norms of a social group. It is an effect that influences how people perceive and treat those who are viewed as being part of the in-group versus those who are seen as being part of the out-group.

Othering also involves attributing negative characteristics to people or groups that differentiate them from the perceived normative social group.

It is an “us vs. them” way of thinking about human connections and relationships. This process essentially involves looking at others and saying "they are not like me" or "they are not one of us."

Othering is a way of negating another person's individual humanity and, consequently, those that are have been othered are seen as less worthy of dignity and respect.

[first mate]

An example of othering: "Guardian reading, tofu eating, wokerati"

[Sephiroth]

I was xenophobic but (and?) now I'm "othering"

I’m not othering you. I’m pointing out that the Brexit that exists in your head is not supported by the people that voted for it. The country has a very negative opinion of it. And because you so often come on here to “other” everyone else who disagrees with you I’m merely pointing out that your fantasy has a negative effect in the real world and maybe you should reflect a little more

[Sephiroth]

"By contrast, DR and I clearly have combative online back and forth... But at least he has a few of his own thoughts to share with the group...."

Was I being "othered" here? I can't help feel I was. Not that I care

But what I do care about is being called "clearly xenophobic" so that had better be retracted in next post

[TheCat]

Classic gaslighting.

Repeated resentful beration about 'fucking off' or 'swanning off' back to my home country.

Repeated comment that my views are not what 'British people' want.

So because I have an option to move to another country, and my views are at odds with 'British peolple' view as you see them.... This means my views aren't apparently valid and Im labelled 'reprehnsibe' and display 'sickening arrogance' for the crime of moving my family to the land of my birth and my extended family.

Classic othering.

You don't know me. You don't know why I have chosen to relocate my family...ill give you a f#cking hint... Its got nothing to do with brexit. So, no. You won't be getting a retraction from me.