Did you vote in the Local Elections?

[diable rouge]

Rockets Wrote:

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Looking at the results thus far I think Labour has a problem nationally - they should have cleaned-up in these elections...

This has to be seen in the context that at the last local elections in 2018, Labour did very well, but then went on nationally a year later to perform terribly at the GE, so you can't just compare the 2018 and 2022 results in isolation and say Labour should've done much better, they were never going make huge gains in the number of seats. A better way is to look at Labour's share of the vote and how that would transpose if it were a GE, I'm sure some pollsters will be number crunching that info as we speak.

The Tories are probably hurting from losing some key London seats but probably think they got away with one as they should have taken a hammering...

The Tories losing Wandsworth and Westminster will be causing a lot more pain than just 'hurting'. These were Tory flagship councils, not just in London, but also nationally. Even when Blair won a landslide in '97 and subsequent elections, the Tories controlled these councils.

As Tory MP for Wimbledon, Stephen Hammond, said this morning, angry Tory voters didn't just stay at home and not vote as many people thought they would, they actually came out and voted against the Tory party. That will send alarm bells ringing in CCHQ and Tory MP's sitting uncomfortably in marginal seats...

[heartblock]

DV - LibDems got 1133 and 1037, Con - 1063, 1053 Lab - Margy -2111 Rleemings - 1922 Green - 370 and 387. I don't know about GG.

I think it was a local and national vote.

People who live in LTNs will have come out strongly to vote LP because why would they want their house value to drop back and traffic on their road again. Other's were split between national and local. Even I with my belief that LTNs just produce more pollution and chaos for people on EDG, LL and Croxted, could not have voted Conservative if I lived in DV - I think the anti-LTN vote was split between LibDem and Con.

Well done Labour in London, they campaigned hard and kept at it over a long period. Nationally the LP won't get in to power by 'winning' London - and I don't think the gains signify much change from the last local elections, except the Labour share is up in London, but down in the north and that will be the problem for LP. Best news for me... Green Party did well. Definitely my party of choice for the next local and national elections.

[Sue]

The only reason I wouldn't vote Green in a general election is that I think Helen Hayes is an excellent constituency MP, as was Tessa Jowell before her.

[Rockets]

legalalien Wrote:

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> The breakdown is on twitter

>

>

> 54205952/photo/1

So it looks like the Tories and Lib Dems split their own vote - perhaps there should have been a pact between them (like is being seen in other parts of the country between Labour and the Lib Dems).

[Rockets]

diable rouge Wrote:

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> Rockets Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> Looking at the results thus far I think Labour has

> a problem nationally - they should have cleaned-up

> in these elections...

>

> This has to be seen in the context that at the

> last local elections in 2018, Labour did very

> well, but then went on nationally a year later to

> perform terribly at the GE, so you can't just

> compare the 2018 and 2022 results in isolation and

> say Labour should've done much better, they were

> never going make huge gains in the number of

> seats. A better way is to look at Labour's share

> of the vote and how that would transpose if it

> were a GE, I'm sure some pollsters will be number

> crunching that info as we speak.

>

> The Tories are probably hurting from losing some

> key London seats but probably think they got away

> with one as they should have taken a hammering...

>

> The Tories losing Wandsworth and Westminster will

> be causing a lot more pain than just 'hurting'.

> These were Tory flagship councils, not just in

> London, but also nationally. Even when Blair won a

> landslide in '97 and subsequent elections, the

> Tories controlled these councils.

>

> As Tory MP for Wimbledon, Stephen Hammond, said

> this morning, angry Tory voters didn't just stay

> at home and not vote as many people thought they

> would, they actually came out and voted against

> the Tory party. That will send alarm bells ringing

> in CCHQ and Tory MP's sitting uncomfortably in

> marginal seats...

Yes and the way you are suggesting people look at the popular vote is the way Labour are trying to spin this as a victory but they know what we are seeing today is not good enough to win at a GE - on Radio 5 the presenter said "but you wouldn't have won" and the Labour campaign leader said "but we have turned the corner" which is grasping for something that actually isn't there. As you point out Labour did really well in 2018 and then fell flat on their faces at the GE - if the Tories get rid of Boris and bring in someone more palatable will Labour be able to rely on the protest vote?

Look at what is happening in regions that Labour needs to be winning now - they are losing seats which looks like a protest vote against them.

Labour will not be looking at London for the bellweather to their GE chances but the rest of the country because that's where they lost the last election because they lost touch with their core and nothing we have seen thus far suggests that they are re-engaging with it - and that is worrying for everyone.

The BBC sums the challenge for Labour up very well:

Shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper welcomes what she calls "strong Labour results" so far and says they are down to the party rebuilding its support.

She says: "We do see this as a turning point for Labour because particularly since the 2019 election we've had a real rebuilding of support right across the country in different areas."

She also claims if Labour's vote share were to be replicated in the next general election it would win dozens of constituencies back from the Conservatives.

But analysis from polling expert Prof Sir John Curtice suggests, based on these results being repeated whenever Boris Johnson pulls the electoral trigger, Labour would not grab enough seats for a Westminster majority. In fact it would not even topple the Tories as the largest party in the Commons.

As counting continues, Labour is currently at a net loss of councils outside London, although we have only passed the halfway mark in England and none have been declared at all in Wales or Scotland.

[diable rouge]

Sue Wrote:

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The only reason I wouldn't vote Green in a general election is that I think Helen Hayes is an excellent constituency MP, as was Tessa Jowell before her.

This might be another reason for you Sue. The Greens have recently said that once the Ukraine war is resolved, they will campaign for the UK to leave NATO.

If so, that will be a big vote loser for them. Even the German Greens don't advocate such lunacy...

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

diable rouge Wrote:

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> As Tory MP for Wimbledon, Stephen Hammond, said

> this morning, angry Tory voters didn't just stay

> at home and not vote as many people thought they

> would, they actually came out and voted against

> the Tory party.

Or maybe the Tories are just discovering what Labour discoverer a few years ago: that there basically aren't any party-loyal voters any more. The membership of the Tory party is tiny and (iirc) its average age is in the 60s or possibly 70s. The rest of the electorate is up for grabs and every vote needs to be fought for on every front. Sometimes that means you pull off unexpected coups - like smashing the "red wall". And sometimes that means you lose in places that traditionally would be a shoo-in...if Dulwich Village (the wealthy, leafy home of 80s Thatcherite stockbrockerism) doesn't vote Tory - where will?

[Earl Aelfheah]

Rockets Wrote:

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> So it looks like the Tories and Lib Dems split

> their own vote - perhaps there should have been a

> pact between them (like is being seen in other

> parts of the country between Labour and the Lib

> Dems).

Dulwich Village councillors have been re-elected with an increased majority and with 61% turnout. It?s hardly a rejection of their policies is it? Time to move on.

[Rockets]

Dogkennelhillbilly Wrote:

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> diable rouge Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > As Tory MP for Wimbledon, Stephen Hammond, said

> > this morning, angry Tory voters didn't just

> stay

> > at home and not vote as many people thought

> they

> > would, they actually came out and voted against

> > the Tory party.

>

> Or maybe the Tories are just discovering what

> Labour discoverer a few years ago: that there

> basically aren't any party-loyal voters any more.

> The membership of the Tory party is tiny and

> (iirc) its average age is in the 60s or possibly

> 70s. The rest of the electorate is up for grabs

> and every vote needs to be fought for on every

> front. Sometimes that means you pull off

> unexpected coups - like smashing the "red wall".

> And sometimes that means you lose in places that

> traditionally would be a shoo-in...if Dulwich

> Village (the wealthy, leafy home of 80s

> Thatcherite stockbrockerism) doesn't vote Tory -

> where will?

It's interesting isn't it. In the last general election Labour gained support from traditional middle-class voting areas at the expense of working class areas and the opposite was true for the Tories. It's all going a bit topsy-turvy!

For the next GE the winner will be the one who can reconnect best with their core voters.

[heartblock]

Areas with high numbers of graduates are more likely to vote Labour, areas of poverty and low graduate population appear to be voting Conservative. In 2018 LP did much the same as today. I do listen with amazement that Corbyn is being blamed by LP for not doing better - I think it was Corbyn's fault that my friend's cat got run-over 9 days ago and he probably had something to do with me tripping on the stairs 2 weeks ago.

[diable rouge]

Rockets Wrote:

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Yes and the way you are suggesting people look at the popular vote is the way Labour are trying to spin this as a victory but they know what we are seeing today is not good enough to win at a GE

If you listen to politicians' spin, they all won last night :)

But it's wrong to dismiss what happened in 2019 and only relate to Labour's performances in 2018 and 2022.

This polling expert explains it well...

Could Labour have done better in Red Wall areas? Of course, but they don't have to if the Tories lose seats in their southern Blue Wall, and there are signs that could happen, especially to the Lib Dems (Note: this is on 2018 v 2022, so reality is far worse for Tories with respect to what happened in 2019)...

But analysis from polling expert Prof Sir John Curtice suggests, based on these results being repeated whenever Boris Johnson pulls the electoral trigger, Labour would not grab enough seats for a Westminster majority. In fact it would not even topple the Tories as the largest party in the Commons.

I notice that he doesn't say the Tories would have an overall majority either. As things stand, I'd hazard a guess that if there was a GE tomorrow, the likely event is that there would be a hung parliament, leading to a Lab/Lib Dem coalition with Starmer as PM. I'd take that any day of the week, because right now we need competent middle ground consensus politics to get through some extremely difficult times ahead...

[heartblock]

It might have to be Lab/Lib/SNP....

[Earl Aelfheah]

Two years to go yet, a rapidly deteriorating economic outlook and a Con government out of ideas and mired in sleaze. A Lab/Lib coalition, formed on an agreement to bring forward electoral reform / PR, would be a great outcome imo.

[diable rouge]

heartblock Wrote:

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> It might have to be Lab/Lib/SNP....

Yep, the SNP would probably want IndyRef2 for their support, and the Lib Dems electoral reform as rah suggests...

[DuncanW]

They may not have the position to dictate those terms... especially the LibDems

Given a binary choice of joining a progressive, left-of-centre coalition, or not.. the first option may be the more favourable for them.

SNP may create their own mandate for IR2 with a strong electoral performance

[Rockets]

rahrahrah Wrote:

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> Two years to go yet, a rapidly deteriorating

> economic outlook and a Con government out of ideas

> and mired in sleaze. A Lab/Lib coalition, formed

> on an agreement to bring forward electoral reform

> / PR, would be a great outcome imo.

To be honest, given where the economy is going I am not sure any party really wants to try and take the reigns to sort the mess out - someone might need to update the note left on the desk to read: this time there really isn't anything left...no really, absolutely nothing at all. Good luck!

[JohnL]

Signs of a Labour revival in Scotland .. they actually won a council.

West Dunbartonshire

[andrewc]

I spoke to a Labour activist before the election result who was worried about doorstep pushback on the ULEZ and LTNs on labour voting.

Looks like the LTN/ULEZ rebellion didn't happen?

[Waseley]

Interesting how this thread has gone from local issues - the vocal one being LTNs - to national ones. With regards to the latter perhaps some of you will need to accept that LTNs are here to stay and put their energy into making these and other interventions to reduce traffic work better.

[diable rouge]

Sky has come up with some number crunching on what the locals would mean at a GE...https://news.sky.com/story/local-elections-2022-tories-could-face-losing-parliamentary-majority-sky-news-projection-12606792

[Rockets]

Waseley Wrote:

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> Interesting how this thread has gone from local

> issues - the vocal one being LTNs - to national

> ones. With regards to the latter perhaps some of

> you will need to accept that LTNs are here to stay

> and put their energy into making these and other

> interventions to reduce traffic work better.

Ha ha....we have, it's the council that has been reluctant to make any tweaks or changes to make them work better for everyone. Remember they had to be forced to open DV up for emergency vehicle access....

[trinidad]

JohnL Wrote:

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> We were all asked for our voting cards yesterday -

> It was muttered that it was just to make it faster

> to vote but there was a feeling you needed them.

> Should have posted this yesterday.

>

>

> Well done London Labour.

You dont need your voting card to vote, details on the card though helps the polling Clarke to find you alot quicker.

[trinidad]

JohnL Wrote:

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> Rockets Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > We had heard from a friend in Here Hill that

> they

> > were told they could not vote unless they had

> > their card which I thought was a bit odd.

>

> That was implied - and it was the people

> supervising the ballot - but if you persisted they

> allowed you. I saw someone complain a bit that

> took up more time than voting cards saved :)

This does not seem right, you do not need your voting card to vote, it just helps the staff find you quicker, but not a requirement. I wonder if you should provide feedback to Electoral services?

[trinidad]

Waseley Wrote:

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> Interesting how this thread has gone from local

> issues - the vocal one being LTNs - to national

> ones. With regards to the latter perhaps some of

> you will need to accept that LTNs are here to stay

> and put their energy into making these and other

> interventions to reduce traffic work better.

Your right weseley, I was hoping we would explore a whole range of localized topics.

-The Housind department has looked at exploring council accommodation by building on top of existing housing blocks.

-The Parking charges introduced to park in or near our parks

-Many council services are now delivered online only

I am sure there are many more. While I dont like LTNs too much, there are LTN threads available on the forum.

[apbremer]

I cannot believe that voters have been so stupid. In DV ward they voted overwhelmingly to rid themselves of these wretched LTNs, only to be ignored by a this hugely arrogant council. They have now voted back the same half wits who have not only pledged to keep them but to instigate more of the same. I despair.