Defending the indefensible - another PM thread

[Waseley]

We used to play a game called killer wink. Is this is what we are talking about?

[Spartacus]

Apparently tractor sites are linked to porn. Who knew that Massey Fergusan is a chesty Sarah Fergusan impersonation act 🤣

Is it me or does anyone expect Neil Parish to do a statement like this

[Waseley]

I found myself four times on inappropriate sites in the office. Three were opening attachments from mates, they were risqu? rather than obscene and once redirected from a benign site to something very much not benign. You get into an immediate panic trying to remember where the blank screen short cut is on Windows. At worst I switched it off at the mains, these were PCs in full site of others. At no time did I feel the need to investigate what was on my screen and spend further time looking at it to check that is was inappropriate.

[JohnL]

Companies are sending around test emails and messages with attachments and semi plausible reasons to click on them.

about 1 in 100 clicked in our test - and had to enrol for extra training LOL.

[Spartacus]

I had that in the past

Some where for security training and if you didn't report them questions were raised

Others were "dodgy" and you got reported if you did open them

Either way a course followed.

I failed by opening "Kim Kardashian wants to keep abreast of your security status" as it was both dodgy and needed reporting. I was torn and simply put it in a tractor folder deleted it

[JohnL]

The way its going next election will be Tobias Ellwood versus Chris Bryant for PM.

[diable rouge]

JohnL Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> The way its going next election will be Tobias

> Ellwood versus Chris Bryant for PM.

Fine, as long as we don't get to see Chris Bryant's Gaydar white briefs pics again...:)

[malumbu]

I'm actually angry since the Sue Grey report came out. It's late and if I start typing now wont get to bed till 1 and will lie their thinking about it all night. So you will have to wait. But a precis is that No 10 would not have behaved this way under previous PMs.

[IlonaM]

Rewrite the Ministerial Code so we never have to suffer a rogue Prime Minister again - Sign the Petition - @openbritainhq #StopTheRot

https://actionstorm.org/petitions/ministerialcode?ref=409834

[Spartacus]

Here's an question for you all

If there is a vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson, which he loses, assuming the government doesn't go back to the polls with a general election and there will be a new Tory PM selected which of the existing Tory MPs is the one that could be PM.

Frankly, none of them stand out in anyway for me but Gove and Rees-Mogg would be akin to voting for Trump in mind.

[JohnL]

Jeremy Hunt

I haven't even used the abusive word from when he ran the NHS :)

[KidKruger]

How refreshing that the Tory party are considering replacing Mr. Johnson.

Not because he is an inexperienced inept politician, not because he has no cause, not because he is a traitor, not because he doesn?t care about the UK population, not because he instructs people to follow rules that he has no intention of following himself, not because he lied about what parties were held, not because he prorogued parliament, not because he lied to the Queen, not because he lined his friends pockets, not because he put his cohorts into crucial positions during the pandemic when actually what we needed was expertise, not because he is responsible for tens of thousands of deaths, not because he is dismantling the structures which maintain stable government, not because he is removing the right to protest.

No, because he may make the Tory party less popular.

Refreshing isn?t it ?

[Sephiroth]

This is without the consideration ?should any party that has had 4 leaders on 6 years and called 3 to 4 elections in that time even be considered as stabile/capable of running a country?

And after 12 years in power it?s clear that no matter who leads them they are an empty yet dangerous vessel and any hint of re-election rewards ineptitude on a massive level.

[diable rouge]

Exactly KK, what we're seeing is self-preservation kicking-in, the prospect of Tory MPs losing their seats rather then any genuine objection to Johnson and his lies, ineptitude, moral bankruptcy, and the disgrace he's brought to the role of PM.

I'm still not convinced though that he would lose a VONC, didn't May survive one, only to later stand down 'voluntarily' due to failing to get the Tories to agree to her Brexit deal?

As much as I want him to go for the good of the country, if he stays it makes it much more likely that this incarnation of the Tory party will lose the next election. The whole lot of them need to be sent packing, not just Johnson...

[malumbu]

KK, not quite getting the thrust of your point....

HE GOT BREXIT DONE!

Oh, wait a second, he didn't get it sorted, and the whole thing is a mess (irrespective of the opportunities Cat).

Anyway we have our pint and mile, and soon traders in Kent and Lincolnshire can sell strawberries by the pound. Although the UK actually started to go metric in the 60s, being government policy long before the EU allowed us to join. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metrication_in_the_United_Kingdom Hardly a victory over the evil EU Prime Minister.

[TheCat]

malumbu Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

>

> Oh, wait a second, he didn't get it sorted, and

> the whole thing is a mess (irrespective of the

> opportunities Cat).

>

Yep it is a bit of a mess Mal, no disgreement there.

As an aside....I do find it bemusing however that some people can constantly cite this govenrment's total ineptitude on anything and everything (which I agree with by the way) as a reason why the country has 'gone to the dogs'. But when it comes to Brexit, its nothing to do with terrible government...its just 'brexit is bad'.....

If brexit is so very, awfully terrible (irrespective of who runs the place), than can someone please explain the attached chart (from the very anti-Brexit Garun of all places, using ONS data)......without giving me cherry picked sob story anecdotes about people they've heard about doing it tough or indiviudal sub-sectors that are doing poorly...Overall, while these charts are far fron 'sunlit uplands' they are also very far from 'absolulte disaster/carnage', and also not really even able to be descibed as particualrly negative if we're being honest (recpover after intial shock early last year)...so looks to me like overall things are about the same as they were before brexit on the trade front....and thats with a totally inept government in charge....imagine what might be able to happen with someone competent....

[diable rouge]

Here's the article* in full for those who want to read the full context...https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/30/brexit-uk-firms-eu-trade-northern-ireland

*Warning: Article contains 'cherry picked sob story anecdotes'...

[TheCat]

diable rouge Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Here's the article* in full for those who want to

> read the full

> context...https://www.theguardian.com/business/202

> 2/may/30/brexit-uk-firms-eu-trade-northern-ireland

>

>

> *Warning: Article contains 'cherry picked sob

> story anecdotes'...

Sure the aritcle is full of those. This 'context' you are providing in not way detracts or changes the overall data....which I note you've failed to address or comment on at all....

[diable rouge]

What happened to the 'let's wait 10 years before we judge Brexit' plan? :)

Yet, here we are, almost a year and a half after the transition period ended and Cat's citing one graph because he thinks it suits his agenda.

I note the graph and article makes no reference that the Gov has still to apply full post-Brexit import checks, something the EU did immediately, so hardly a level playing field in that respect. It's something that the UK Gov will have to do eventually, especially if it wants to be seen to be 'taking back control', despite the adverse effect that will have on imports and graphs like that one.

One important thing the article does cite though is that the OBR's original long-term forecast (15 years) that this particular Brexit deal will hit GDP by 4%, remains unchanged despite these figures. Perhaps the OBR didn't conveniently forgot about the Gov's delay on checks...

[diable rouge]

But when it comes to Brexit, its nothing to do with terrible government...its just 'brexit is bad'.....

The Brexit deal we ended up with has everything to do with this Gov, they negotiated it. The two are inextricably linked.

Some people, myself included, feel that any form of Brexit would've been 'bad' with respect to staying in the EU, but there were degrees of 'badmess'. For instance a more competent Gov would've Brexited while still remaining in the SM and CU, thus minimizing the economic damage...

[TheCat]

Yes. One chart. One chart showing total trade figures.

Surley, the only chart that really matters for people whinging about brexit destroying trade.

One chart not showing any benefits (yet), becuase they would indeed only be evident 'after 10 years'. But one chart showing a lack of foretold negative impacts which even the most ardent remainers admitted would likely be near-dated.

So what if they havent instituted full checks in imports? What dangerous or damaging imports are you concerned with from the EU that makes you so keen to see them check things? Its the UK"s choice to check or not check imports, the only risk is p1ssing off non-eu importers who think they are being treated unfairly versus the EU. Delaying the full checks is probably the one sensible decision the govt has made. In anycase, the application of full checks from the EU doesnt appear to have had much an impact on overall exports to the EU, as the chart shows, so perhaps the impacts of these checks are somewhat overstated. Its obviously worse in some industries that others, but overall, little impact from the hard data.

Its funny how many remainers spent years demanding 'tangible impacts'...now i've given you 'one chart' with 'tangible numbers' and you want to obsfucate about OBR forecats and apparent vague reference to 'context'....

Seperatley, I wont bother explaining how flawed that same tired old OBR study is (which i've done multiple times and no one on here has responded to)

Anyway...my aim here is not re hash all this old ground, but to maybe highlight (with actual data, not hysterical anecdotes about tea trolleys and hotplates) that this indefensible government is the main problem, not nessarily the concept of brexit....

[TheCat]

Full text of the 'Leadership Memo' written by a tory backbencher and doing the rounds amongst consrvative MP's the past 24 hours.....geez I hope most of them heed its message, even if it is based on concern for their own electroal survival, rather than for ethical/policy reasons...i'll take it....

PARTY LEADERSHIP ? Boris Johnson is no longer an electoral asset and, if left in post, will lead the Party to a substantial defeat in 2024. He will lose Red Wall seats (with majorities under 10,000) to Labour, and Blue Wall seats (majorities up to 20,000) to the Liberal Democrats. At least 160 MPs are at risk (all majorities under 10k, and LD-facing majorities under 20k). Furthermore, tactical voting, so devastating in 1997, is returning and could turn a defeat into a landslide. ? Partygate, and the Prime Minister?s denials of it in the House of Commons, represent a major breach of trust with the British population, including 2019 Conservatives, many of whom have abandoned the party already. Boris Johnson cannot win their trust back, and they will discount anything a Government led by him promises. ? Partygate is not going away. Allegations of a birthday party ? hitherto uninvestigated ? in the flat on June 19, 2020 have not been denied by Downing Street. And the ?Abba party? of November 13, 2020 was not fully investigated by Sue Gray. The Privileges Committee will want to examine both events, and may demand that Boris Johnson, Carrie Johnson, Sue Gray and No 10 staff give evidence to them. ? The entire purpose of the Government now appears to be the sustenance of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister. MPs are having to defend the indefensible, not for the sake of the party, but for one man. He is the only Minister given negative ratings by activists in the ConHome ratings (link), meaning he is dragging everyone else down. Electoral Considerations: ? Our last lead in the polls was on 6th December, a week after the initial Partygate stories broke. We are now an average of 8% down. We won the last election by 11.8% (GB) so this represents a 10% swing against us. (link) ? 27% of current Conservative voters think the PM should resign, indicating there is potential for a further fall in our polling position. 51% of current Conservative voters think the PM knowingly lied about breaking lockdown rules. (link) ? The booing of Boris Johnson at the Jubilee Thanksgiving service tells us nothing that data does not. There is no social group that trusts him, with even 55% of current Conservatives calling him untrustworthy, against only 25% saying he is trustworthy. (link) ? The damage done to trust in Boris Johnson is such that popular policies are falling flat with the public (e.g. cost-of-living measures). A pollster has dubbed him the ?Conservative Corbyn? because of this. (link) ? The recent YouGov MRP poll (link) showed us losing 85 of 88 Labour-facing seats at the next election. Bookmakers expect us to lose the Red Wall seat of Wakefield (maj 3,358) comfortably. ? Facing the Lib Dems, we have already lost Chesham & Amersham (maj 16,223) on a 25.2% swing and North Shropshire (maj 22,949) on a 34.2% swing. North Shropshire was the seventh-worst by-election swing since the war ? only Christchurch was bigger in the 1992-97 Parliament (link). Bookmakers also expect Tiverton & Honiton (maj 24,239) to follow. ? This situation is not comparable to the ?mid-term blues? in the 2010-15 Parliament. There are very few votes on our right to squeeze (unlike e.g. 2013, where UKIP polled into the 20s at times, link). The polls in 2010-15 were also shown to be wrong following an inquiry after the 2015 election. Risk of an early General Election: ? Should Boris Johnson win a vote of no confidence, but only narrowly, his authority within the Commons and the Parliamentary Party would be destroyed. Most Prime Ministers would resign; however it has been suggested (link) that he would consider calling an early General Election (despite the obvious electoral risk) as the only way to restore his personal mandate. This would put MPs in marginal seats at risk. Privileges Committee: ? The Partygate story will continue to be played out over the summer, with reports suggesting the Privileges Committee may not report until October (link), overshadowing our conference and ensuring Ministers and MPs continue to face questions on this subject for months. The four Conservative MPs on the Committee ? and the integrity of all of them is beyond question ? have been placed in a very difficult position. ? The only way to end this misery, earn a hearing from the British public, and restore Conservative fortunes to a point where we can win the next General Election, is to remove Boris Johnson as Prime Minister.

[JohnL]

I can't work out what he means below.

?Can you look me in the eye and tell me you haven?t lied in your political career?? asked interviewer Paul Brand.

Johnson responded: ?Absolutely not. Absolutely not? ? apparently meaning he can look Brand in the eye and say he ?absolutely? has not lied.

[diable rouge]

I expect Johnson will win the vote, but as to whether it counts as a 'win' will depend on how many vote against him there are.

I would've thought any number above the parliamentary majority of around 80 will cause problems. Once you get into 100+ then it's just a question of how long it drags on for. May managed 6 months but didn't have an investigation by the Privilege's Committee and two very losable by-elections to contend with...

[hammerman]

Really hope Boris can weed out the Conservatives who voted against him tonight.

As for Paul Brand. I used to like him as a journalist but he has morphed into a younger version of Robert Peston who right now is just reporting on ITV in his usual long drawn out, breathless, exasperated style and hatred of Boris Johnson.