Harriet Harman standing down

[Dan-the-man]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59560336

After 40 years.

The battle for Labour selection should be very very interesting with a very left wing CLP and the party leadership/national executive committee being relatively moderate.

[hammerman]

Yes this will be very interesting as Harriet is leaving in the wake of so many Southwark Labour decisions made about the closing of local roads/bicycle lanes being made etc. Also her views on other subjects are regularly aired in the South London Press. I bet she will get a good pension.

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

hammerman Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Harriet is

> leaving in the wake of so many Southwark Labour

> decisions made about the closing of local

> roads/bicycle lanes being made etc.

Bit of a ahoehorn there. She's retiring because she's 71, not because of some local dispute over road closures (which are a council matter and not a Parliamentary one anyway). Harman has a 75% share of the vote in this constituency, having grown it from 50% when she was first elected. In fact Lab has had 50% share continuously since 1936 and its one if the 20 safest Lab seats. Harman was not worried about losing her seat.

[DuncanW]

Is local CLP very left-wing?

I'm not saying it isn't, genuinely interested to know. How would that be measured/judged?

[SpringTime]

Will she have to give up her car? I hope so. The woman's lethal.

[DuncanW]

Give up what car? She is an opposition back-bencher - does she get a car provided for her?

[Dan-the-man]

Hi Duncan,

I am a member of the CLP. Definitely very left-wing, probably the most left-wing in the country.

How measured/judged? Not super easy, I admit it is a bit subjective but the left 'slate' won all the positions on the CLP Executive last year - this is post Starmer winning the leadership and many left wing members leaving/being expelled.

Until recently, there was a crazy situation whereby a guy called Nick Wrack (who stood against Harman as a candidate for a far-left party in 2015) was actually on the executive. His campaign mnanager in 2015 (who had thus organised a campaign against the Labour Party) was even the CLP Secretary. This is all online/publicly available information.

Quite a few leading CLP members were expelled post-Starmer for a range of stuff- I think more than in any other constituency in the country (but I'm not 100% sure on that fact).

If you speak to anyone in Labour locally, the left is very firmly in control at a local-level.

This is why the campaign to be the next candidate will be interesting.

It is one of the safest Labour seats in the country so will be lots of interest. If it comes down solely to the local membership, there will easily be someone to the left of Corbyn winning.

I'm sure the national leadership will take a big interest in the nomination process, but I'm not sure how much control/influence they have now (Starmer gave up quite a bit of control at the last conference I believe). I'm part of a moderates group locally and there is a reluctant realisation that we'd be best of choosing someone who is just *quite* to the left rather than potentially having a real extremist as a candidate.

Either way it is shaping up to be potentially very ugly.

[oimissus]

Harriet Harman was terrified of being de-selected by the ultra left-wing CLP.

I hope that we get someone who knows and understands what a woman is and why that matters, but I'm not holding my breath. You would think that the most senior woman in Parliament, who has written a book called A Woman's Place, would have stood alongside her colleague Rosie Duffield, but see my first point.

[DuncanW]

Thanks Dan,

That's really informative, and happy to accept your first-hand account.

[scarlettbanks]

Can interested people join the local CLP now? E.g. if they want to increase the chance of a moderate candidate? Or is it too late for this?

[Dan-the-man]

Hi Scarlett,

Definitely you can join and I'd encourage you to do so. Not sure exactly what the process would be for selecting the new candidate and when it would take place, but you'd have a vote at your local branch level at least in terms of who your branch would nominate (I think that's how it works but can't be 100% sure).

[Rockets]

This is going to be fascinating to watch - strap yourselves in there's likely to be one hell of a fight about to commence with local, regional and national implications.

[Dan-the-man]

Hi Rockets,

You are right. Definitely popocorn time. This could get bloody.

[legalalien]

Vaguely remembered something about this in relation to the London Assembly elections - google brought up these

https://www.theredroar.com/2020/01/long-baileys-campaign-chief-accused-of-selection-stitch-up/

https://www.southwarknews.co.uk/news/gla-elections-senior-labour-figures-claim-lambeth-southwark-candidate-shortlist-is-a-stitch-up/

[Sue]

Dan-the-man Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Hi Scarlett,

>

> Definitely you can join and I'd encourage you to

> do so. Not sure exactly what the process would be

> for selecting the new candidate and when it would

> take place, but you'd have a vote at your local

> branch level at least in terms of who your branch

> would nominate (I think that's how it works but

> can't be 100% sure).

They changed the rules after a load of people (including me) joined the Labour Party to vote for Jeremy Corbyn as leader.

Don't know if it's different for MPs.

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

There's nothing Labour loves more than bickering with itself.

[Dan-the-man]

A few vague (possibly not always correct) insights from me.

Momentum/party left have a definite local majority and if they manage to unite behind a candidate then they could easily win over local members.

This could set up a real clash with the national leadership especially if the candidate in question has openly opposed Starmer etc.

Leadership then has a big dilemma. They could stick to a position of principle and with what was agreed at conference and let the local CLP decide.

The implication is that Starmer/Labour will be left with a far-left MP who will be in place for absolutely decades (I think the left will try and choose someone young for this exact reason). Get someone in their early 30s and they?ll have a socialist MP for next 40 years (probably).

If Starmer/national party try and fight this, they take a big risk by contradicting what was agreed at conference and facing a huge internal mutiny with the party left who will argue (probably correctly) they have broken another promise. However, from their perspective it is probably still worth the fight. This could expose splits between Starmer and Rayner.

So this national element alone is very interesting.

In terms of the CLP, I could foresee Momentum/the left having a few people wanting to be candidates with different levels of support. Factionalism on the left (I.e. ?people?s front of judea? type stuff) could undermine their efforts. One thing which will help them is a shared desire to keep out anyone they regard as ?centrist? or ?blairite? which is frankly anyone mildly to the right of Corbyn in some cases.

The moderates (knowing they are in a minority) may well be more disciplined and prepared to compromise. I could see them uniting behind a soft-left type (I.e. an Ed-Miliband type politician) who could peel over some of the left/momentum, especially if they choose an appealing individual. Many moderates would be prepared to support such a person on the grounds that the alternative (a far leftie) would be much worse.

Then it comes to the gender/race of the candidate. This being modern Labour, it will be incredibly important (maybe even the sole criterion ? sounds sad I know).

I?ve already seen many say ?it must be a woman?, ?it must be a woman?. The logic seems to be that losing one female MP requires Labour to replace her with another female. However...........in seats where male MPs are standing down, the exact opposite logic seems to apply ? I.e. it must be a woman to replace a man. This is despite 55% of Labour MPs being female. Don?t get me started on this.

People are also saying it must be a ?BAME?, partly due to the diversity of the seat (although whites are the single biggest ethnic group and the parliamentary labour party is already much more statistically diverse than the UK population).

The whole thing is reminiscent of an old ?Not the Nine O?Clock News? sketch.

Just for comedy value, there is also the issue that a potentially interested candidate would be Harriet?s son, Joe Dromey, who has held parliamentary ambitions for years and is a Councillor.

He is a white guy, but this did not stop Harriet/Labour overcoming an all-woman shortlist to put her husband Jack Dromey (Joe?s father) into his seat in the Midlands. The collective meltdown if this occurs would dwarf the melting of the polar ice caps.

If I was him, I?d pretend Joe is short for Josephine and then he might be fine.....

In terms of local movers and shakers who may be interested, I can think of a few (p.s. I don?t know for certain if such individuals are interested).

Marina Ahmad ? London Assembly member for Lambeth and Southwark

There are several councillors I could potentially see interested:

Dora Dixon-Fyle

Johnson Situ

Sarah King

Jasmine Alli

James McAsh

Jack Buck

Generally they are varying shades on the left of the party.

Seb Dance ? former MEP, the remainer?s remainer. I think he?s in/around the constituency and so may well put himself forward ? I understand he was looking for a seat.

I did hear a rumour ages ago that the left were trying to push Grace Blakeley into this seat. If that?s true I?m sure the national leadership would be hopping mad.

One certainty is the following:

Both wings of the party will shamelessly exploit the following tactic, and be utterly hypocritical in doing so.

?Why are you not supporting our BAME female disabled LGBT candidate? There?s only one reason ? you must be a racist misogynistic ableist homophobic transphobe?.

You can predict with absolute certainty that accusations of ?racism?, ?sexism? and others isms and phobias will be thrown around like confetti, all weapons in the battle to get their factional candidate selected.

By all sides. And against each other. All the time.

I really think some of these people practice issuing these insults in front of the mirror every morning.

There?s not a small chance that in the General Election itself, a left-wing candidate standing independently on anti-Starmer ticket (and possibly getting a fair amount of support, as will the Greens).

This will be Games of Thrones-type bloody and despite the absence of dragons and attractive people, it will be just as entertaining.

As a final point, I am half-seriously thinking of standing (as a white male heterosexual moderate who is well to the right of virtually the entire CLP) just for the LOLs.

[Rockets]

Dan-the-man - thank you for your assessment - it is going to be fascinating to watch. I don't know about anyone else but I really wish Labour would stop fighting itself and try and unite to provide some proper opposition to the Tories. The far-left, left, centrist-left, Blairite nonsense has gone on for too long and has cost them hugely at the polls and ultimately cost this country dearly.

[Bic Basher]

The last thing Peckham and Camberwell need is another Zarah Sultana type MP, but Labour could put up the worst candidate in that seat and they'd still vote Labour.

[legalalien]

Any idea how the proposed boundary changes affect anything?

[hammerman]

Dogkennelhillbilly Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> hammerman Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Harriet is

> > leaving in the wake of so many Southwark Labour

> > decisions made about the closing of local

> > roads/bicycle lanes being made etc.

>

> Bit of a ahoehorn there. She's retiring because

> she's 71, not because of some local dispute over

> road closures (which are a council matter and not

> a Parliamentary one anyway). Harman has a 75%

> share of the vote in this constituency, having

> grown it from 50% when she was first elected. In

> fact Lab has had 50% share continuously since 1936

> and its one if the 20 safest Lab seats. Harman was

> not worried about losing her seat.

Don't you mean shoehorn? Very worrying that Harman has or has had in this case a 75% share of the vote in the constituency. I wondered why a lone Labour councillor was doing the rounds last week, knocking on doors on a dark and cold night asking if there was anything he could help with. Soon sent him scuttling away down the garden path.

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

hammerman Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Dogkennelhillbilly Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > hammerman Wrote:

> >

> --------------------------------------------------

>

> > -----

> > > Harriet is

> > > leaving in the wake of so many Southwark

> Labour

> > > decisions made about the closing of local

> > > roads/bicycle lanes being made etc.

> >

> > Bit of a ahoehorn there.

> Don't you mean shoehorn?

Mo, nate, I mean ahoehorn.

[oimissus]

Bic Basher Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> The last thing Peckham and Camberwell need is

> another Zarah Sultana type MP, but Labour could

> put up the worst candidate in that seat and they'd

> still vote Labour.

Agree 100%, but that it exactly what I think we'll get, unless Labour have learnt their lessons from parachuting in Ms Sultana and her colleague Ms Whittome.

[HammersHamlets]

.

[HammersHamlets]

Do we know when the selection process will be?