Electricity and gas prices going up - what will you do?

[TheCat]

Umm not really....we pay a fee for access to live market data, I can't just post it on random internet forum I'm afraid..and Im not really trying to win an argument here or prove a point with evidence.

The price was up 20 percent today for wholesale 1 month future on UK Nat gas...I just thought people without that live access may be interested in that....you can either choose to believe that or not, I don't really mind which!

[womanofdulwich]

We will have to do lots of manual work in the house to keep warm or go out .Can't we.make.those static bikes generate electric somehow?

[jazzer]

What is the live market data? And where is the data from? What is the market? The energy market??? The oil market? As you don't say what it is how are we supposed to know?

It's like a newspaper stating something but not the source from which it came, a Govt dept, a Minister, The Church, a trade body etc.

TheCat Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Umm not really....we pay a fee for access to live

> market data, I can't just post it on random

> internet forum I'm afraid..and Im not really

> trying to win an argument here or prove a point

> with evidence.

>

> The price was up 20 percent today for wholesale 1

> month future on UK Nat gas...I just thought people

> without that live access may be interested in

> that....you can either choose to believe that or

> not, I don't really mind which!

[alice]

womanofdulwich Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> We will have to do lots of manual work in the

> house to keep warm or go out .Can't we.make.those

> static bikes generate electric somehow?

I like that idea.

[ianr]

jazzer wrote:

-------------

> What is the live market data? And where

> is the data from? What is the market?

> The energy market??? The oil market?

> As you don't say what it

> is how are we supposed to know?

A search on, say "wholesale 1 month future on UK Nat gas", from The Cat's post, brings up numerous sources, including https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5188706 https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/.

[TheCat]

ianr Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> jazzer wrote:

> -------------

> > What is the live market data? And where

> > is the data from? What is the market?

> > The energy market??? The oil market?

> > As you don't say what it

> > is how are we supposed to know?

>

> A search on, say "wholesale 1 month future on UK

> Nat gas", from The Cat's post, brings up numerous

> sources, including

> https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas

> -Futures/data?marketId=5188706

> https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas

> -Futures/.

Thanks Ian. I wasnt aware it was freely available on the Ice website.....so any can peruse until their hearts content...

its flying again this morning...up another 19% at the moment.....40% in 2 days....a proper squeezed market.....this is surely going to wipe out quoite a few of these small utilities companies who have setup and remain unhedged.

[diable rouge]

BBC now reporting on it with info and implications for the consumer... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58815665

[Angelina]

We are hanging winter curtains which have thermal lining (you can buy it separately and just fix it on).

We're going to cover some of the windows which are drafty or just cold - you can get film to insulate them with - I might get thermal blinds for some as they are really effective - haven't really spent a lot of time looking at options yet.

It will be hot water bottles, blankets, extra layers and quicker showers.

Heating will be on but low to stop the issues with the house (damp etc). I've read that having the house at a regular temperature is better than having blasts of central heating for shorter periods - although happy if anyone has a view.

[JohnL]

womanofdulwich Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> We will have to do lots of manual work in the

> house to keep warm or go out .Can't we.make.those

> static bikes generate electric somehow?

I hardly turn on the gas - so its all for hot water.

My gas bill is a quarter of my electric bill - thats WFH + Games + TV + Charging things. Considering pulling out plugs from the wall before going to bed like my parents did in the 1970s. I tend to leave lots in standby at the moment.

And the Peloton - it does leave you hot - but bet its screen adds a bit too.

[diable rouge]

Angelina Wrote:

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> It will be hot water bottles, blankets, extra layers and quicker showers.

Kettles use up a huge amount of electricity;

Layering is good, several thin layers work better than one thick layer;

Quicker showers make a big difference, Thames Water hand out a 3 minute egg timer you can stick on the shower wall.

> Heating will be on but low to stop the issues with the house (damp etc). I've read that having the house at a regular temperature

> is better than having blasts of central heating for shorter periods - although happy if anyone has a view.

Regular temp is indeed much better, that's the job of the thermostat, if your radiators have individual thermostats, turn them down a bit in the less occupied rooms...

[malumbu]

Not heard anyone mention the obvious of reducing drafts, thicker curtains and the like. Ideally we'd better insulate our homes but successive governments haven't got their heads round that yet, and there was a half assed attempt of a grant scheme last year.

What we want is a high profile campaign on insulating houses, perhaps with a few stunts like Fathers for Justice or XR. Shame somebody hasn't started one yet.

[JohnL]

Kettles - yeah mine is always on for endless cups of coffee when WFH

[diable rouge]

Get one of these John... https://www.which.co.uk/reviews/kettles/article/hot-water-dispensers-how-to-buy-the-best-aE1aB3z1blaX#is-a-hot-water-dispenser-quicker-than-a-kettle-and-does-it-use-more-electricity

[JohnL]

diable rouge Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Get one of these John...

> https://www.which.co.uk/reviews/kettles/article/ho

> t-water-dispensers-how-to-buy-the-best-aE1aB3z1bla

> X#is-a-hot-water-dispenser-quicker-than-a-kettle-a

> nd-does-it-use-more-electricity

That would save me money

[Nigello]

Filing kettles with just the right amount of water should be a norm, as should turning off lights when not in use and turning down the thermostat on the boiler, the rads and the wall. Full length curtains and floorboard gap fillers also help, as well as an openness to the idea of donning an extra layer when it gets chilly. I now switch off the shower when I?m lathering which should also reduce my water bill.

[Whoeveritis]

You sound fun

[Angelina]

https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/15921594/how-much-cost-boil-kettle/

It costs around ?2.50 a year if you make a cup of tea every day.

As for the shower, I thought it was normal to turn the water down or off. How can you do treatments with the water running? Unless you?re just having a quick shower?

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

Dogkennelhillbilly Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> TheCat Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > But the UK's reliance on Nat gas peak load

> style

> > generation (as a result of closure of base load

> > and replacement with intermittent renewable

> > capacity) means that the whole system is

> > vulnerable to Nat gas price rises. The cost of

> Nat

> > gas electricity generation is also far more

> > sensitive to the price of gas, than coal fired

> > generation is to the cost of coal, or nuclear

> to

> > the cost of U308. So the increases in the cost

> of

> > coal and uranium we've seen recently would not

> > flow through to the cost of generation in the

> same

> > way as they have for Nat gas...we have low

> > proportion of coal or nuclear baseload, which

> > would not have seen the same rise in cost of

> > generation as we have seen with Nat gas,

> despite

> > the increase in cost of those generation fuels.

>

> What you're ignoring is the cross-elasticity of

> global demand between coal and gas (even when it's

> dampened in the UK because there are so few coal

> fired power plants). Having a whole bunch of coal

> fired power plants lying around wouldn't have

> meant the UK could switch from gas to coal in

> response to gas getting more expensive - because

> everyone else in the world will have had the same

> idea, driving up the cost of coal. And that is

> exactly what has happened in reality, with the

> price of coal going up 300% in the past year.

>

> Your argument doesn't work in theory and doesn't

> work in practice.

>

> https://www.ft.com/content/b696720f-fed4-4f4b-acbd

> -302f8935c73e

> https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coal

Coal now up 400% year on year "due to spike in natural gas prices" while gas is up 220%ish year-on-year. Does our resident soi-disant "bit of a dick" banker still reckon domestic electricity price rises are because the UK has reduced coal-fired generation capacity?

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coal

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

[TheCat]

Yes.

Look, im not even sure what you're trying to argue to be honest....you seem to be getting yourself very mixed up with the relationship between coal and gas. Which as I've said, is not as simple as looking at rises in the cost of generation fuels. There's a baseload versus peak load type arguement at play there as to how coal versus gas plants genrally work, and as i've already mentioned, the cost of electricity generation at a peak-load gas plant is much more sensitive to the price of gas, than the cost of electricity generation at a baseload coal plant is to the price of coal...this is the main pint you seem to be missing.

In anycase....lets strip all that back. and make it nice and simple for you.....my original point was about reckless adoption of renewables in place of old coal fired capacity. The wind isnt blowing, so there's little power from renewables, which means you need to fire up peak-load style gas plants, which are 1) expensive to start up, 2) have a generation cost highly sensitive to the increases in gas price.

Old coal baseload plants are not designed to be switched on and off, they just run constantly, providing energy whenever we need it....so if much of that capacity was still running it wouldn't be a case of firing them up when the wind dies down, they would alrerady be running. And the increase in cost of coal would not have had the same impact on generation cost as the rise in price of gas has.

As an aside, I should point out that 1) the % increases in coal you're talking about were from temporary multi-year lows, so the 'normalised' prices was much higher than your starting point anyway, so the increase you reference is a bit of a distortion, and 2)the two charts you've linked to are for US domestic nat gas and a US referenced domestic coal price - so both interesting, but these are largely separate markets, so while an interesting reference point, are largely irrelevant to the discussion in the UK.

Anyway....I've sort of had enough of this banal conversation, you can either choose to try and understand what im saying, or keep on furiously googling to try and prove me wrong...which you wont, because im making a very basic point that anyone that knows anything about this isnt really going to try to debate....if we still had more coal fired plants in operation and a smoother transition to renewables, yes we might have 'some' rises in electivity price as a result of coal price increases, but we wouldn't be seeing such huge rises in the overall cost of electricity generation in the UK right now because we wounlt need to fire up all this nat gas capacity....

PS if you're just trying to argue with me because you think Im an advocate for dirty coal over renewables...im not. Im totally for the low carbon transition of the energy mix, it just needs to be done in a manner which maintains the security of the energy system.

[jazzer]

Clearly Cat what you've been saying about the rises in gas prices has been spot on, as now reported on BBC News.

But also the spike has very slightly dropped as Russia has increased the supply, hopefully the decrease in the spike price will continue, however News also reporting that the price cap may rise from ?1277 to ?1660.

[TheCat]

Yep, was down about 19% on the open this morning, but recovered during the morning, and currently down about 6% from yesterday.

You can obviously track it yourself on the link which Ianr posted to above to the Intercontinental Exchange website should you wish.

My guess is that even if the gas price eases, the cap for consumers will be raised.....as some of these Utility providers are bleeding cash at the moment.

Changing the topic to Nigello's original question for this thread...what will you do...well I have just been putting together a little 'blackout kit' in a box as a precaution for this winter. Hopefully it wont have to be used, but having a box in one easy spot with battery lanterns, External charging batter for phones, matches, candles, and a board game or two - just makes things that little bit less stressful if the lights suddenly go out this winter, ratehr than fumbling around trying to remember where you last put them in the dark!

[diable rouge]

If people are precautionary thinking of the possibility of going 'off grid' at some point this winter, this is a simple light/heat source hack, lots of variations out there...

 

[teddyboy23]

Let's all get naked and hug each other.

[malumbu]

Urgh - reminds me of Mazola parties.... https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Mazola_party I'd only heard of them rather than participated.......

Thinking about Russia and the like, for domestic customers much depends on whether our energy companies fixed prices ahead or buy on the spot market. Little has been said on this.

[diable rouge]

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