Hartlepool & (latterly) North Shropshire

[alex_b]

Diable - because it?s a good culture war issue that keeps Labour on the back foot. The argument in favour is superficially simple (you need ID to pick up a parcel) and it?s easy to paint opposition to being in favour of electoral fraud.

Trying to engage with the detail of why it?s a terrible solution to a non existent problem requires a level of detail that is difficult to get across in a 15 second soundbite. It?s also helpful that the people most vocally opposed to this policy will be younger people of colour, allowing them to show that Labour has been taken over by woke, metro elites rather than traditional working class people.

Edited to add: to give the Tories credit, they?re brilliant at this perpetual campaign and Labour are terrible at it. Partially for structural reasons but also because of the people involved.

[Earl Aelfheah]

alex_b Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Diable - because it?s a good culture war issue

> that keeps Labour on the back foot. The argument

> in favour is superficially simple (you need ID to

> pick up a parcel) and it?s easy to paint

> opposition to being in favour of electoral fraud.

>

> Trying to engage with the detail of why it?s a

> terrible solution to a non existent problem

> requires a level of detail that is difficult to

> get across in a 15 second soundbite. It?s also

> helpful that the people most vocally opposed to

> this policy will be younger people of colour,

> allowing them to show that Labour has been taken

> over by woke, metro elites rather than traditional

> working class people.

exactly this

[diable rouge]

Although I don't disagree with what you say Alex, I'm not convinced it's solely a continuation of the cultural war.

For a start I don't think it sticks along party lines as say something like 'statuegate' did, as there are plenty of Tories who are opposed to ID cards in principle, likewise there are 'progressives' who aren't.

And as has been said, there is no significant electoral fraud to speak of. If Labour can't bat that away then they might as well give up.

I'm thinking this is more about the Gov preparing the electoral ground for when the proverbial hits the fan economically, and eventually the cost of Brexit/Covid takes effect.

The 'vaccine bounce' will be a distant memory by then...

[Sephiroth]

Yep - I'm minded to agree with DR here

The reason this is happening now, is because (as we have seen with the queen's speech) the ideas cupboard is bare - apart from "getting brexit done" and getting thru COVID there are no ideas to actually take the country forward

But the headwinds of ongoing Brexit-fallout and Austerity 2.0 (much worse than before) mean this government is going to get massively unpopular - so they need to put steps in place to "help" as much as possible

[diable rouge]

Yep, and the Gov deliberately delaying the start of a Covid public enquiry and its expected negative ramifications, could also be tied-in with their electoral planning. If starting next year or later, doubtful it would be completed by the time of the next GE...

[Sephiroth]

oh yeah - I forgot to mention the fallout from Scottish Independence - that is going to have quite the bearing on next election - so most of the govt bandwidth will be strategising on how to minimise the blame/fallout by bringing a GE forward

[flippit]

@Sephiroth,

Agree with most of what you say however most governments can turn external factors in their favour eg Covid, wars (Falklands) etc.

It's the self-inflicted wounds that bring govts down eg Poll Tax, Tory sleaze and things like the Profumo affair.

And even then, it takes an opposition leader with charisma and an aspirational message to complete the task as per a certain Tony Blair.

[Earl Aelfheah]

Wasn't the whole contrived 'voter fraud' thing something Farage was pushing for a bit? Johnson tried to neutralise it by putting voter ID in the manifesto? He's simply following through on something they promised to prevent Farage getting the wind in his sails again. It's on the fringes of the thinly veiled racism grift where Farage and others like to hangout.

[flippit]

The charlatan you mention did not initiate the proposal. The Tories introduced mandatory ID in N.I. in 1985 and afterwards made voter ID cards free of charge.

Similarly in the Irish Republic, voter ID must be presented before a ballot form is issued.

[Earl Aelfheah]

Some ?Classic Dom? today. Apparently Hat Mancock is incompetent! Does anyone believe it?

[KidKruger]

Cummings? comments have realised my worst fears about the Govt and BoJo, there was little that sounded fantastic to me and a lot that had parity with my impression of the amateurs holding power.

I did wonder whether all or some of it is lies, but my understanding is if he is lying he is committing perjury because this committee is a legal framework, not just a chat with mates.

Some of what has been claimed today is just obviously true, such as we have an inexperienced cabinet with limited real-life background, Boris dismisses some advice off hand proclaiming that he is the Prime Minister, the lockdowns were late starting, and other stuff (bored typing now).

Thing is, even if every claim could be evidenced up and down, I?m not convinced anything would change or be done about it and that a massive % of the England population still support and would vote again for the tool in charge and his party of Richard Heads.

[jazzer]

I don't feel any administration of any political colour would all have had the same lack of experience of dealing with a global pandemic. Cummings was out to undermine the Govt and has succeeded in giving the opposition parties the ammunition to attack on a variety of fronts. Cummimgs clearly wanted to hang Hancock out to dry and achieved that, BUT it will be interesting to see Hancock's evidence in two weeks time.

I agree lockdown was over due but no Party had the required knowledge or experience to deal with a pandemic, I'd further suggest that this whole episode show's the inadequacy of Whitehall and the men in suits who follow out of date guidance rather than thinking outside the box to deliver the required objectives.

[Alan Medic]

KidKruger Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I did wonder whether all or some of it is lies,

> but my understanding is if he is lying he is

> committing perjury because this committee is a

> legal framework, not just a chat with mates.

I think yesterday he was operating with Parliamentary Privilege.

"Parliamentary privilege grants certain legal immunities for Members of both Houses to allow them to perform their duties without interference from outside of the House. Parliamentary privilege includes freedom of speech and the right of both Houses to regulate their own affairs."

I don't know how 'certain legal immunities' is defined. In other words, can he lie and get away with it?

From what I heard most of it was believable though. Except the old Barnard Castle story. Hunt specifically quizzed him on why he thought it was okay to go with wife and kid on a test drive. Cummings thought there was nothing strange about that.

[Earl Aelfheah]

It?s pretty clear to me that the government made a series of catastrophic mistakes. The only question in my mind is whether or not they?re forgivable under the circumstances. What is clear is that the top team we?re pretty dysfunctional at a time of crisis. It?s mad that Johnson burnt so much political capital on saving Cummings at the time of Barnard Castle.

[Earl Aelfheah]

?agree it will make no difference to Johnson?s popularity. A lot of people have fully bought in to the ?bumbling Boris? schtick and don?t seem to be able to get enough of it.

[Sephiroth]

I don?t know, rah

In time, I think yesterday will be seen as beginning of the end for Johnson

[KidKruger]

This may well be the beginning of the end for BoJo (if it?s not, God knows what will ever put an end to this).

But currently he?s mad popular with his fans, and it?s easy (lazy?) and convenient to simplify yesterday as an embittered sacked ex-colleague intent on smearing BoJo?s ?reputation?.

Which begs the question WHAT will it actually take for his fans to concede he?s inept, inexperienced and unqualified ?

[Alan Medic]

KidKruger Wrote:

> Which begs the question WHAT will it actually take

> for his fans to concede he?s inept, inexperienced

> and unqualified ?

Probably the realisation that his 'hairstyle' is so as to cover up the fact he's going bald. I don't think they care that he's inept.

PS No offence intended to bald people with this remark

[Sephiroth]

Anyone else think Hancock today might make things worse?

[diable rouge]

Well, there's this for starters...https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1397868514795470851

It was kinda ironic to see Cummings wanting/needing people to believe him. The man who helped create and nurture a political culture where it's ok to lie and feed disinformation, and even get rewarded for it. Never forget, this is the man that sought to undermine our democracy and the rule of law with the illegal prorogation of parliament.

But, I actually think that Barnard Castle aside, what he said was based on truth and actual events, we knew most of it already, but it was important to get it from someone who was actually there right in the thick of it (no pun intended). And at least he had the decency to admit to his culpability and apologised, something you won't get from Johnson et al.

I agree that this could well be seen as the beginning of the end of Johnson, it was only a matter of time before this Vote Leave Gov started eating itself, the question is how long will it take.

Like with Trump, Johnson's base will continue to support him regardless, but that base isn't the majority and unlike the US two-party system where all the anti-Trump vote could go to the Democrats, here the anti-Johnson vote is split, and unless that is addressed by some sort of 'progressive alliance', Johnson will keep on winning under our first past the post system. The two upcoming by-elections in traditional red and blue wall constituencies should be an ideal opportunity to put that to the test...

[????]

I think that?s wishful thinking straight out of your echo chamber there RD. I haven?t heard anyone whose not on Twitter, the majority of us, say that much about this. I think it?s a media and Twitter frenzy and Mr Teflon will survive it.

[alex_b]

It may or may not have been true, but it was certainly self-serving and I believe deliberately chosen to also serve to advance the interests of Cummings?s allies. For instance Sunak and Gove got away without criticism but Johnson and Hancock got it in the neck. I find it hard to believe that the Cabinet Office and Treasury were not central to the dysfunction of the pandemic response.

Cummings also has absolutely immunity for what he?s said in Parliament (see Rebekah Brookes and her parliamentary evidence of payments to police officers that couldn?t be used at her trial). If he lied he could be held in contempt of Parliament but that?s happened to him before and he didn?t care.

[diable rouge]

I'm not 'on' Twitter Quids but I do browse around it, mainly journos across the political spectrum and legal experts so as not to expose myself (oooerr missus) to too much political bias.

Agree that Mr Teflon will survive, but isn't that the problem?...

[TheCat]

I must say my progressive friends (and journalists) are giving me a wry chuckle across the interweb.....yesterday Dom Cummings was akin to Dr Evil, who would lie/cheat/steal/manipulate etc.....today?.....well he's criticised this tory government....we should believe what he has to say....

Im not saying what he's said is true or false...i've no idea...but he's a proven manipulator with an axe to grind...accordingly, Im not sure if testimony from Cummings is really as ground-shaking as many think it is. So I'm very dubious that its the 'beginning of the end' for Johnson any more than it was the day before yesterday, no matter how much many of his critics would like it to be....

[alex_b]

Shockingly I mostly agree with TheCat. I do think that it might be ?the beginning of the end? if it moves the Tories towards regicide (as they are brutally effective at) that?s why I though who Cummings didn?t criticise was as interesting as who he did. However for the moment the Telegraph is siding with Johnson so I guess it won?t be meaningful. Fully agree 90% of the public couldn?t give a toss.