Hartlepool & (latterly) North Shropshire

[TheCat]

What does the forum make of the hartlepool poll stats. And Sir Kier's effective concession.

Despite my views on some things on here. I genuinely want labour to be a strong, effective alternative govt.

But running an arch remainer (who lost a nearby seat in 2019) in a strong leave seat??? I don't want this to be another brexit debate....but surely that's just pig headed stupid.....?

And to be fair. It's only a poll. The vote may be different.

[j.a.]

First things first, the vote won?t be different. This seat would have gone blue if the BXP hadn?t run - Tice polled 10,000 votes and the majority was 7,000. The writing was on the wall ever since the by-election was announced.

In more general terms, Labour are screwed. We?re looking at ten years of Tory rule *with no effective opposition* (that?s the important point IMO) and Labour did it to themselves.

I say this as dyed-in-the-wool Labour supporter, but they infuriate me.

The Labour Party has had some form of infighting since the mid-30?s, but in the last ten years it?s like they?ve decided that they?d all rather be ?pure? Labour than agree to work with others who might hold *slightly* different views on stuff - it?s the People?s Front Of Judea all over again, and they can?t see it.

They got the seven bells kicked out of them by Tufton St over anti-semitism, and have utterly failed to understand how the North and Midlands feel. Like, utterly. I mean, I?m a born and raised metropolitan elitist snob (apparently), and even I can see those towns have a point. Hartlepool is a perfect example - it?s been ignored by parties of both sides for decades, and then Brexit came along and they had a chance to actually make a difference (sorry Cat, but Brexit is a large part of all this), and Labour haven?t worked it out.

I despair at people who accuse others of being Blairites, and not ?true Labour?. I work with a number of young left-wingers who regularly espouse this view while thinking that Corbyn is still the Messiah (again, Monty Python were way ahead of their time here), and I always remind them - BLAIR WON THREE ELECTION ON THE F?ING TROT, and you still insist that you know better than him.

But no. Kerry-Anne Mendoza and the rest of them think a good use of their time is to destabilise the only chance we have to hold the govt to account and continually harp on about how Corbyn would currently be saving humanity if only the media and filthy not-proper-left wingers hadn?t undermined him. I mean FFS, their myopic stupidity is breathtaking, and their insistence that traditional Labour voters haven?t properly thought things through demonstrates exactly *why* the Red Wall fell, and the next brick will go on Thursday.

Aaaaach, it?s not worth it. Voters don?t care that Boris is a lying next Tuesday, they don?t care that he genuinely isn?t up to the job. It?s not his brains, it?s not his skill, it?s his ability to make people feel he?s just like them. He cuts through because he?s a bluffer, a chancer, a liar, and they still don?t care. They just don?t. He ?gets Brexit done?. A vote for him sticks it to people they don?t like. And they genuinely don?t feel that Labour means anything to them any more.

For all his talk about levelling up, I?m not convinced it?ll happen. I sincerely hope it does, because for all by terrible liberal credentials in which I apparently understand nothing about the outside world (which is a different conversation and not one I will concede ground on anywhere near so readily), I really wish that those towns would get the investment they need. But then I look and the fishing industry (100% Leave vote, by the way) and somehow I?m not optimistic. If anyone needs help it?s those coastal towns, and yet...

When you have people like Matt Hancock and Nadine Dorries on your corner, I?m sceptical. Not exactly a nation of talents, and Gove is just biding his time. He?ll cut Boris down eventually.

And yet, against all this , Labour is still getting trounced. Boris, who was very close to quitting six months ago, has found a fresh wind and Starmer can?t quite land a blow. Covid is covering up the worst of the economic drama thus far from Brexit, and the vaccine has been a massive success.

Labour are in the wilderness for a while, and will be until they figure out that the Tories have them round their little finger.

[TheCat]

Thats comprehensive...and fair....

[Earl Aelfheah]

Yep. Pretty spot on. All that said however, people in Hartlepool who think Johnson is going to improve things for them are deluded. I wish them luck.

We need a coalition of progressives.

[alex_b]

I don?t disagree with j.a. although I do wonder what Labour could do to cut through to voters in the North and Midlands? The fact that Angela Rayner is seen as part of the liberal elite while Jacob Rees-Mogg isn?t speaks volumes about the challenges Labour has faced post-Brexit. I think the country has tacked distinctly rightward and towards a nationalist position, I?m not sure how Labour addresses that.

There are also three structural problems Labour need to overcome. First, Labour voters are more concentrated that Tory voters (therefore leading to fewer seats per million voters). Second, Nationalist parties (and to an extent the Lib Dmes) block any route to a Labour majority as England has an inbuilt Tory majority. Third, the evaporation of BXP/UKIP/etc has United the vote on the right while the centre/left remains fragmented.

[Seabag]

It?s pretty depressing all in all.

[malumbu]

The struggle I have is how parts of the country that were not traditionally Tory see the government as offering them much more than the opposition. Why can they not see through all of this? I understand how Labour became a toxic brand and now come over as pretty toothless. But I see the current lot as one of the most useless government's of my lifetime. I'd understand if many decided not to vote for either, but not the current PM please.

Yes, depressing.

[j.a.]

They want change. They?ve been ignored politically for decades now. The Tories didn?t care about them, Labour took them for granted. So when Brexit came along, suddenly here was a chance to actually be heard.

Now we know that about 50% of the Leave vote was affluent Southern England, but the rest was these guys, who listened when years and years of anti-EU sentiment blamed other people for *problems that we made ourselves* (I think it?s really important to remember that), and then the Leave campaign itself lied it?s arse off.

And they don?t care that Leave lied. At the heart of this is a desire for dignity and respect. And in that they?re right. As Clinton?s campaign said in 1992, it?s the economy, stupid. Give them jobs, give them prospects, give them everything that we down here take for granted (though now there?s a debate to be had about the gig economy, zero-hours contracts, London rent etc etc), and they?re gonna be less concerned about immigrants, frankly.

But tell them that same old story, that ?foreigners? are responsible, and it?s amazing how easily that goes down if they look around and see some other sod has eaten all the pig.

This is a great read on the subject - https://www.amazon.co.uk/Brexitland-Identity-Diversity-Reshaping-Politics/dp/1108461905

[j.a.]

And no, I?ve got not idea what Labour can do to cut through right now. The political landscape is undergoing the same upheaval that ushered in Thatcher.

Certainly Labour - like the Dems in America - face an unfair playing field, but that can?t be an excuse. It is what it is.

Personally I?ve been loudly arguing for Proportional Representation and mandatory covering since the 90?s and my mates are fed up of hearing it. But I think then at least we would have real representation, and parties would be forced to work together.

[j.a.]

Also this is interesting.

[diable rouge]

''Nationalist parties (and to an extent the Lib Dmes) block any route to a Labour majority as England has an inbuilt Tory majority.''

For this reason I've long thought that the Tories wouldn't be that upset if Scotland went Indy, it basically guarantees them power for the foreseeable future.

''the evaporation of BXP/UKIP/etc has United the vote on the right while the centre/left remains fragmented.''

It's something when an egotistic chancer like Farage could see how standing down at the last election would help the Brexit cause, yet Corbyn and Swinson despite numerous chances to do likewise in parliament and at the election, remained blinkered and wouldn't form a similar pact.

If anything good can come out of the expected Hartlepool result, it's that it finally gives Starmer the kick he needs to look into a formal alliance with other progressive parties...

[Blah Blah]

j.a nails it. Rahrahrah is spot on too. Labour need to accept that it is going to take time to come back, just as the Tories were out in the wilderness for over a decade with Blair. There are no magic bullets to fast shifts in electorate thinking and the left is especially poor in that it talks to itself too much. The other problem for Labour is that the party structure opens the door to activists, and particularly those on the fringes. At some point, those at the top have to get control of that, which is what fuels a lot of the internal infighting.

[alex_b]

I think this is a brilliant article that might remind us of the veracity of some of the Northern reporting https://thecritic.co.uk/the-woodfired-brick-wall/

[????]

I see the good people of the left are still stuck on the at best patronising view ?it?s the uneducated plebs that believe everything they read ? line, a worse view, which you see all over social media is ? they're thick racists who don?t deserve the vote? These and similar lines is why Labour hasn?t got a chance for years, it?s what the majority of their younger activists think too.

[j.a.]

???? Wrote:

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> I see the good people of the left are still stuck

> on the at best patronising view ?it?s the

> uneducated plebs that believe everything they read

> ? line, a worse view, which you see all over

> social media is ? they're thick racists who don?t

> deserve the vote? These and similar lines is why

> Labour hasn?t got a chance for years, it?s what

> the majority of their younger activists think too.

If that?s your interpretation of what?s been said on this thread, then I have no idea what to say to you.

There?s a lot of people who fit your description, (and there?s a lot of people in the Tory party who are unpleasant for different reasons), but all I see here is folk who understand the problems Labour has and the difficulty that left has (once again) gotten itself into.

YMMV, I guess.

[malumbu]

Maybe there is some one nation conservatism out there. I just don't see it. I know why there is such strong support for the current PM - he delivered on his main promise (Brexit), he is a character, he is now being judged by his success on rolling out the vaccine. But I still don't get it.

That's not to say that most of the population are racists, but we are a conservative nation and most are not that bothered about politics. That is a statement of fact not patronising the masses.

[j.a.]

Examples of where the Tory party might, just might, be being a bunch of next Tuesdays...

Windrush.

Being ok with residents being forced to pay huge sums for proper cladding, when the builders did the original shoddy job.

Not-too-subtly telling cultural institutions to fall in line with the govt position on history or risk having their funding cut - https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/922293/22-09-20_Letter_to_DCMS_ALBs.docx

Some extremely dodgy issues concerning PPE contracts.

So yeah, Labour and the left in general have some problems, the same ones they?ve always had because they don?t learn. But I don?t think the Tory party are exactly beyond reproach. If the left could work out how to be as organised as the right, Johnson would be in a lot more trouble than he is. As is so often the case in life, an idiot does well because someone else has been even more of an idiot.

[j.a.]

malumbu Wrote:

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>

>

> That's not to say that most of the population are

> racists, but we are a conservative nation and most

> are not that bothered about politics. That is a

> statement of fact not patronising the masses.

This is very true.

[diable rouge]

An election wouldn't be an election without...

https://twitter.com/hashtag/dogsatpollingstations?src=hashtag_click

[????]

If you want an answer to why the Labour Party keeps losing just google ?Hartlepool? and ? thick? this morning. Doomed if so many of its vocal and activist supporters hate this country and the people they claim to represent.

[Monkey]

Unsurprising. Dire campaign. All I heard from Khan in London is to vote for him to keep the tories out. Uninspiring, and annoying. I?m Labour, I voted Green.

[Spartacus]

I thought the interview with the conservative lady on BBC this morning was interesting

When she was asked if cronyism was having an effect, she responded that people were voting on local issues not national as they've spent the last year locally so things like overhanging trees are more important (I briefly caught it so it's not a verbatim quote)

It's what local elections should all be about our local councillors would do well to listen to that advice 🤔

[TheCat]

???? Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> If you want an answer to why the Labour Party

> keeps losing just google ?Hartlepool? and ? thick?

> this morning. Doomed if so many of its vocal and

> activist supporters hate this country and the

> people they claim to represent.

Unfort for Labour this is the age-old problem with much of the left....they have 'good' and 'right' on their side, so they are never wrong, its the voters who are wrong...over and over again apparently.....

To be fair thought the statement from the Labour party this morning did seem to acknowledge they need to change. I wont hold my breath though.

[Seabag]

This put a smile on my face

And the town is no stranger to political upset, in 2002 the main political parties were all fighting to become Hartlepool's first elected mayor.

Instead, the town chose local football mascot H'angus the Monkey

[fishbiscuits]

Hartlepool is proper Brexity though, isn't it. Surely this is a big part of it. Boris Johnson's neo-nationalism and promises to "level up" the North are sure vote winners in places like that (not sure how many of you have been to Hartlepool, but Hartlepool is in desperate need of a bit of levelling... one way or the other)