David Cameron tells porkies about Britain?s national debt

[david_carnell]

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/01/david-cameron-tells-porkies-about-britains-national-debt/

Debt is rising.

The economy is shrinking.

OECD suggests world recovery is slowing and Britain is in line for an unprecedented triple-dip recession.

Let's call it failure.

http://www.lrb.co.uk/v35/n01/john-lanchester/lets-call-it-failure

[????]

...you wait until we lose our AAA rating....not quite a 'no more Boom and Bust' moment for Osbourne but not that far off it

[david_carnell]

Whilst we disagree on much, Quids, I think we can agree that whatever tactic this government is using to reduce debt/deficit it's not working.

[????]

nope agree.

But for me this largely shows the monumental scale of the task and why the whole way we think about how the state, welfare etc functions needs massive reform....whereas my suspicion is that your answer is more tax on the rich and a bit of growth will sort it out?

I suspect you do keep an eye on the Spectator, so you probably know this, but they are by and large no fans of MrCameron

[????]

But the govts communication on this is a political driven porky I'd agree. When the AAA goes they will be deeply in the poo - politically, economically it won,t make that much difference.

[david_carnell]

Well I'm all for wholescale reform my good man. Although I suspect our reforms might look a little different. ;-)

Land tax, anyone?

The scale of debt and deficit is large. But adopting a discredited economic tactic that time and again has been shown to ruin economies for decades seems positively dopey.

Oh, and not just the rich btw. You and me too!

[david_carnell]

And as if I knew it was coming:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21193525

Yikes.

[uncleglen]

We are also being fined by the EU to the tune of a quarter of a million a day for not obeying rules.

We regularly get fined by the EU because our carbon emissions exceed certain levels- (impossible to comply with the latter given the increase in population and hence traffic and burning of other fossil fuels to provide energy)

This is partly a result of free movement of people throughout the EU and we had one of the highest population densities (with the Netherlands) before the free movement.

The more I learn about all this the more Kafkaesque it becomes.

[justsaying2]

Bladerunner! This type of thing has always gone on though - people just know more about it now. At least we have the chance to discuss things - intelligence is opening up thankfully - perhaps the common sense of the majority may finally be heard and the hypocrites made to give their money back!! Reform is inevitable whatever happens

[Huguenot]

Having given up attacks on the Scottish, uncleglen retrenches to attach the bloody French. You go, girl!

The economy in 'cash' terms is kinda irrelevant - the aim of 'cash' is to provide a medium for the exchange of goods and services. It becomes a problem because a lack of economic liquidity simply stops people exchanging.

Typically this can be altered in two ways - the first to free up investors to 'create' more product by reducing tax, the second to 'buy' more product by using the public purse as the buyer of last resort (Keynesian economics).

This government's objectives were primarily option one - to reduce excessive taxation by controlling public spending and leave industry the opportunity to invest their profits in production (and hence economic growth).

Otherwise known as 'austerity'.

The reality is that the cuts have been so heavy and sustained that they have removed a significant 'customer' from the market, and the consequence is that wealth creators (small business) have collapsed.

Whilst I supported austerity at first as a way to free business to invest in growth, the reality is that dogmatic convictions from this government have gone too far.

That ain't just me neever. That's the IMF saying that. Osborne has veered into stupid shit, and this now needs to stop.

[????]

still, looks as bad in socialist France...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21244911

[Huguenot]

Well that's very true Quids.

Depardieu is a good example of diminshing returns of taxation predicted by the Laffer Curve - he was generating much needed overseas income to the French economy, but by overtaxing him he stopped contributing (in his case by leaving, but in other cases by reducing productivity).

You cannot simply 'redistribute wealth' to sustain public services. Old Marxist arguments about the exploited working classes don't even support a moral case for it when so much of the economy is driven by small business.

[????]

yes, sadly another example where some vague 'principle' is nonsense when it comes to the 'pratical'

[StraferJack]

Ooh are we talking celebs and that?

Odd then to ignore the examples of Stephen king or kk Rowling (first billionaire to be delisted as such for giving money away) and instead talking about a man convicted of assault and drink driving for befriending Putin.

And all the while talking about morals? And principles?

So quick to condemn so many, but depardieu gets a pass?

"He was generating much needed income for French economy?"

How much exactly?

He says he has paid 145 million euro over 45 years. On what income?

In the current climate he claims he is suffering? Compared to who?

Not saying I would introduce that high a rate of tax. But with that money given choice between paying it or becoming an apologist for putin? Please...

[????]

NOt talking about Deperdau, talking about the overall effect of the laffer effect, Deperdau is a famous eg as the Stones were in the UK in the 70s and Daniels et al are always bought up as good reason to increase the tax rate by the left ha ha very funny. Ever noticed how US technology giants are stuffed with brilliant British 50 and 60 something's? That's the effect of punitive unrewarding tax regime of 70s Britain right there a brain and talent drain, that damaged our country....but don.t worry Brucie and Michael Caine will go if we introduce a 70% tax rate.. good enough for me.

Ever noticed how London is stuffed full of ambitious, talented French youth? Just one of them things I guess..

[StraferJack]

"Ever noticed how London is stuffed full of ambitious, talented French youth? Just one of them things I guess.."

Genuinely I haven't. And now you've pointed it out..still nope

[El Pibe]

Wasn't London the seventh largest city in the French elections?

[????]

Yup, not Strafers bit tho. Hollands even came over to do some electioneering. Seen gazillion of articles on it been goingnon for years and there's a French radio station in London....can't have reached the pages of the Guardian yet

[El Pibe]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/globalbusiness/9261905/High-earners-say-au-revoir-to-France.html

"The source insisted that it would not mean a wholesale exit from France, but rather that employees would be offered options. However, some staff have already formally asked for transfers, with most plumping for London.

London, of course, already has a French population in the hundreds of thousands, with Chelsea and South Kensington dubbed the unofficial 21st arrondissement of Paris."

[david_carnell]

And I imagine if you add up all the holiday home and retirees in the Dordogne or Spain you'd get "something the size of Milton Keynes". It doesn't mean anything though does it - beyond the fact they got a cheap gite 15 years ago and like a bit of sun.

London is cool, multi-cultural and at the forefront of global culture so there are a load of reasons French and every other nationality come here. I don't for a minute suppose they think, "ooh la la - a 40% income tax, c'est magnifique!".

The only reason this attracts interest is that they are celebs. And just as many feck off from Britain as arrive - see Lewis Hamilton who needed to decamp to Switzerland for the "peace and quiet".

If we all shat ourselves everytime some celeb with more money than morals decided to invest in cuckoo clocks then we'd all be in race to the bottom to attract these selfish free loaders. Where does it stop? Why not have a 20% income tax and attract of of Europe's piss-poor actors to these shores. Now Winner has popped his clogs we need grey-haired smarmy wankers to star in pointless adverts. Film stars are especially grevious offenders. Bemoaning any reduction in state aid to the film industry yet as soon as they are asked to contribute they do a bunk. Utter twats.

[????]

It's not just celebs, that's just the lazy argument put forward by the left and repeated. It's entrepreneurs, technichains and creatives too...but carry on with the misguided lazy argument about celebs, Exile on Main street etc In the 70s their was a significant and damaging brain drian of UK talent to the US...not Just the Stones to the SoF and Rod to LA.......

[david_carnell]

Funny - it's always my arguments that are lazy....

Also funny, I know those people. I know creatives, I know engineers. I went to school and uni with them. Many are struggling. But it's not because of their tax rates.

Most are struggling to find work at all or the sales for their businesses. I would imagine a triple dip recession and zero growth don't help.

Third funny - good 'ol socialist France has an economy growing at a faster rate than we do. Bon chance.

[Huguenot]

I was simply choosing a high profile illustration of the Laffer Curve in action - I don't really give much of a shite about Depardieu!

It doesn't require every talented technician, engineer, creative or high earner to leave a country or to reduce personal productivity to have a huge impact on an economy - we measure growth or recession in small single percentage points, but the social impact is massive.

For every example of an individual like Depardieu that takes a hike, there will be examples of people who stay; in themselves they're not interesting, it's the big picture that counts.

[StraferJack]

Just to have a look at recent years (let's say from the financial collapse - remember that?) at a few neighbouring countries

London mayoral stats re: populations graph attached

What's so special about the French numbers? Not much I would suggest

And in a global financial organisation where I work, not many bright young French people, no. Some... the usual ratio you would expect from any country. but "stuffed full"?. So fair enough, maybe they are coming here and entering other professions - but not many

as for that "6th largest French city"? - some debunking here

http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/more-like-colmar-on-thames/

now those numbers differe from the mayors office ones shown above but the point remains

And what about the flip side?

http://www.anglaisimmobilier.com/

[Jeremy]

There are LOADS of French working in the city... lots of quants, lots in sales and trading... your place seems like an exception rather than the rule, SJ.