Vaccine wars

[Blah Blah]

???? Wrote:

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> Er, I think you?ll find Brexit was as bigger shock

> to the EU as all of these! A bizarre omission

I disagree. The other three things are externally imposed crisis and have high levels of unpredictability within them, because of numerous factors beyond EU control. Brexit on the other hand is an internal change between 1 nation and the EU. The EU won't be brought down by that. The difference should be clear.

[Blah Blah]

diable rouge Wrote:

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> Blah Blah Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Big pharma is not a charity.

> > Pandemics present an opportunity for income

> beyond

> > their wildest dreams. Boris was just being

> honest

> > about it.

>

> AZ is far more akin to a 'Socialist' vaccine than a 'Capitalist' one.

>

> Non-profit making and was given large amounts of Gov money/investment.

>

> Gordon Gecko's braces would be twanging off in disgust...

I agree with this of course. Big pharma finds itself in a unique position with a pandemic, and governments have to stump up the funding if they want fast results. Not sure if there is any way of avoiding that.

[Blah Blah]

diable rouge Wrote:

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> Blah Blah Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Big pharma is not a charity.

> > Pandemics present an opportunity for income

> beyond

> > their wildest dreams. Boris was just being

> honest

> > about it.

>

> AZ is far more akin to a 'Socialist' vaccine than a 'Capitalist' one.

>

> Non-profit making and was given large amounts of Gov money/investment.

>

> Gordon Gecko's braces would be twanging off in disgust...

I agree with this of course. Big pharma finds itself in a unique position with a pandemic, and governments have to stump up the funding if they want fast results. Not sure if there is any way of avoiding that.

[Hamletter]

Couldn't resist this take on the Bayeux tapestry

[Seabag]

j.a. Wrote:

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> Dulwich Dyson Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > @diable rouge

> >

> > Paranoid or what?

>

>

> DB is correct though. Not sure why you?d sock

> puppet you?re own thread but whatever makes you

> happy.

In fairness he?s not the only sock puppeteer on his own thread, there?s another who?s been doing it like a shagger in a lay-by at night, for some time.

They know who they are, time to stop or have the sock pulled off, as it were.

[Hamletter]

Seabag Wrote:

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> In fairness he?s not the only sock puppeteer on

> his own thread, there?s another who?s been doing

> it like a shagger in a lay-by at night, for some

> time.

Are we tired and emotional once again or is it just another conspiracy theory of yours?

[j.a.]

HL/DD, you're really not as clever as you think you are.

This is - in the grand scheme of things - a tiny local forum (for local people, we'll have no trouble here). I'm not sure what you get out of running a sock but it's probably akin to Walter Mitty types. Anyhoo....

[JohnL]

You see some bots practicing developing a "persona" on twitter - commenting on rugby, science or knitting so when they state their outrageous conspiracy theory they have a background.

[Seabag]

I don?t do conspiracy theories, sorry to disappoint.

[Spartacus]

There is a worrying development coming out of Chile at the moment, despite being ahead in vaccinating the population they are now suffering a third wave.

https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-news/americas/952437/why-chile-battling-coronavirus-surge-despite-rapid-vaccine

The article talks about using the Pfizer vaccination with a high efficacy and the Chinese vaccination (CoronaVac) which now appears to have an efficacy of around 50%.

Scientist are trying to understand why they are in a third wave and if it's linked to 50% of those receiving Coronavac being vulnerable to the Brazilian variant, however they did unlock back in January when the vaccination program was in its infancy and people dropped their guard.

Should this be a warning for us all during this next phase of unlocking from recent restrictions?

I guess the phrase "they think it's all over" can't be used just yet and fingers crossed the vaccinations we are using here will be enough to stop another wave against our shores.

[Sephiroth]

Fingers crossed we are ahead of the curve this time

But should things deteriorate here, it is to be hoped that lessons from pre lockdown 1 and lockdown 2 will have been learned and instead of saying "we know more than Italy" or "it would be inhuman to cancel Christmas" and blaming "Captain Hindsight" when Starmer was calling for lockdowns weeks ahead of time - hopefully THIS time we would close down earlier and for a shorter period while vaccinations catchup, instead of waiting weeks and months too late and ending up in lockdown for another 3 months

[malumbu]

Modelling of potential third wave when we move out of lockdown: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/975909/S1182_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_modelling_of_easing_roadmap_step_2_restrictions.pdf

Hospitalisations well below the peaks, but demonstrates that not out of the woods yet. Interesting comparing with last summer and the start of the second wave. On captain hindsight, the arrival of B.1.1.7 forced us into more draconian measures (aka lockdown 2) and with the high uptake of the vaccine hopefully things will continue to go in the right direction.

[Sephiroth]

The variant clearly upset plans - but it was known about for weeks (months by end of Dec) and certainly by start of Dec, it was obvious we needed to close. And people were saying so. And had we closed several weeks earlier many more people would be alive and we may well have been out of this lockdown earlier as well

Johnson's inability to make unpopular decisions remains unforgivable to me. But polls show I'm in a minority

[malumbu]

Fully with you on this - just looking at the possible third wave. Interesting article in Grauniad about B 1.1.7 last Saturday and rightly praising our expertise in genomic sequencing - sorry I can't find the link. There is science and there is politics......

[Blah Blah]

Sephiroth Wrote:

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> The variant clearly upset plans - but it was known about for weeks (months by end of Dec) and

> certainly by start of Dec, it was obvious we needed to close....... Johnson's inability to make unpopular decisions

> remains unforgivable to me. But polls show I'm in a minority

Completely agree. Plenty of expert voices were warning about the December opening up/ Xmas and that a New Year surge would be the result. Many people caught the virus after avoiding it for 10 months because they were told to go back to work in December, where they caught the virus. Others caught the virus from their children who had returned to school and became infected.

Having said that, the cautious road map is the result of that naysaying complacency. The real test will come if the R number starts to rise back over one. What will be government response, and how well with the vaccine perform in keeping hospital admissions down? The latter particularly is unknown and if a free moving virus (in a fully open society) suddenly mutates to bypass the vaccine, things could deteriorate very quickly. So that is what science will be looking for. That mutation that undoes everything, and in the meantime, government needs to improve the systems put in place, like track and trace, and keep them resourced for that 'what if' scenario, so that the response can be swift and effective.

Things are not going back to the way they were before. We are going to be living with SARS for the foreseeable future and probably beyond.

[JohnL]

Last night in Soho looked like an explosive opening up to me - I know it was all outside but the Barzilian/SA variants don't care about out of doors I thought.

Why not just keep it to a few tables for a few weeks - why pack them in like sardines on day 1.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-soho-lockdown-shops-pubs-dancing-b929341.html

[diable rouge]

It's obviously a difficult balancing act as pubs/hospitality have been hit hard, but it does strike me as paradoxical that the demographic most likely to frequent pubs/bars will be one of the last to get the jab and all that entails, e.g. the risks of new variants forming...

[JohnL]

I don't begrudge people a celebration - but I expected to see people sitted at tables being served (continental style) - but everybody was up on their feet dancing etc.

Why is it always nothing or everything in the UK when it comes to drinking.

[Blah Blah]

These are exactly the same scenes that last summer saw after the lockdown was eased. It ended with government bringing in a 10pm curfew. Meanwhile, 44 cases of the SA variant have been traced in Lambeth and Wandsworth and we are still two months away from all phase one being fully vaccinated (with two jabs). This is the lack of consistency. No doubt police will still be enforcing the rule of six in parks and at protests, while doing nothing as revelers gather in towns and cities. Alcohol removes common sense. A person does not need a degree in science to understand that.

[Blah Blah]

Just to add as well that in that phase one group of 30 million offered the vaccine, around one and a half million have declined the offer. So this is still enough unprotected people in a vulnerable group to lead to a third hospital surge if the virus starts to spread freely. The hope of course is that as more data emerges, showing definitive proof that the vaccine protects from the virus, that some of these people will finally get the vaccine, but until that happens, we are still in a difficult place.

[Spartacus]

I thought this was useful

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-40ac92b1-1750-4e86-9936-2cda6b0acb3f

It also appears that the surge testing for the SA variant in Lambeth and Wandsworth will be extended into part of Southwark due to its presence also being discovered in wastewater.

Still alcohol gel wash kills it, so the young are hoping for the same effect from going to the pub 😱

[fishbiscuits]

Spartacus Wrote:

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> There is a worrying development coming out of

> Chile at the moment, despite being ahead in

> vaccinating the population they are now suffering

> a third wave.

As I understand it, the hospitalisations are largely the younger, unvaccinated. The problem is that that the restrictions were eased very early into the vaccination drive (summer in South America) and lots of people went on holiday thinking that the vaccines would soon fix everything.

Throw in the fact that the Chinese vaccine is only 50% effective at preventing infection, you can see how they got into this mess.

[Spartacus]

India has just been added to the red list (hotel quarantine required when entering the UK from India)

But restrictions come into force Friday at 4am

Why are they not immediate ?

If people are travelling back then they could be carrying the new double variant, the variant won't be saying "okay I'll wait till Friday to infect people"

I just don't understand why warning is given of the new restrictions.

[Spartacus]

Following on from my last post here, with the warning, there's a increase in people trying to get here from India before Friday.

BBC News - Heathrow refuses to allow extra flights from India

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56837107

Hardly a surprise to anyone with half a brain cell, but at what risk of more variants arriving?

[Blah Blah]

I think there has to be some common sense though. Efficacy of the four vaccines being used is looking very promising against the strains they were designed for. Tweaking those vaccines for new variants should not be a difficult task. So the issue is always going to be one of how fast people can be vaccinated against new variants. As we can see from the fist vaccine rollout though, there is a big difference between countries who can afford to pay for it, and those who can't.

Also true is that this is a virus that mutates easily, and that is going to be impossible to stop in a world where it is spreading easily. So those returning from India are going to have to be sensible and quarantine themselves properly. Unless we want a world where all borders remain fully closed, that is going to have to be the way. Track and trace systems that work. Testing that works. And people doing the right thing.

I think it is safe to say that we are not going back to the way things were before this pandemic. Businesses that rely on mass gatherings are going to have to change. Health resources are also going to have to change. Vaccines, testing, tracking and constant monitoring for new variants all cost money, lots of it. The impacts are going to be felt for some time to come.