The Disunited Kingdom

[zerkalo]

As a Greek person who has been living in the UK for many years, I can honestly say that Greece has overall benifited massively from being part of the EU (since 1980) and adopting the Euro despite even the EUzone crisis in 2015.

JohnL Wrote:

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> I suppose the argument is that people have moved

> within the EU to where the money is - countries

> like Greece, Italy and Spain are losing their

> populations. Maybe that would have happened

> anyway and also maybe that's what happenes in

> large states ?

[TheCat]

SpringTime Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

>

>

> TheCat, you said that the Euro has been a disaster

> in whole but is that 100% right? Yes, I can think

> of several key moments - Greek financial for

> example - but rollout was good, simplification of

> exchange in the block, better established and

> stronger trade block. Appears you might not see

> things as others do on the Euro - what do you mean

> by disaster start to finish?

Sure, the rollout was fine. So i'll re-phrase....its been a disaster, but perhaps not right at the start:)

GO and google 'Euro success', then go and google 'Euro disaster'...and you can draw your own conclusions, I am very much in the latter camp.

But ahead of that...I think this is a pretty decent (and fair) synopsis....

https://theconversation.com/the-euro-at-20-an-enduring-success-but-a-fundamental-failure-108149

[TheCat]

zerkalo Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> As a Greek person who has been living in the UK

> for many years, I can honestly say that Greece has

> overall benifited massively from being part of the

> EU (since 1980) and adopting the Euro despite even

> the EUzone crisis in 2015.

>

> JohnL Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > I suppose the argument is that people have

> moved

> > within the EU to where the money is - countries

> > like Greece, Italy and Spain are losing their

> > populations. Maybe that would have happened

> > anyway and also maybe that's what happenes in

> > large states ?

Interesting. I personally find it quite extraordinary that a Greek national would suggest that Euro has been okay for Greece (not suggesting thats not a valid perspecive, just strongly disagree with the information I have focussed on). Sure...I can agree that membership of the EU has seen accelerated development over the past 40 years as (particularly in the early years of membership as inbound investment, lending and support from EU membership was significant. But the adoption of the Euro has been a disaster for Greece.

More specifically...EU membership allowed Greece to borrow heavily at low interest rates and then, when it ran into difficulty, its use of the Euro meant it could not devalue its own currency to get out of trouble (had they been able to do this, the greek debt crisis could have been largely averted). Consequently, the country?s eurozone partners (I.e. Germany), along with the International Monetary Fund, moved in and, in return for more, low-interest loans, demanded steep cuts in public spending. That austerity helped tip Greece into a deep recession, and over the past 10 years or so the economy has contracted by around a quarter....

Let this be a lesson to the Scottish I would argue!

[TheCat]

No fans of macroeconomics or monetary policy here then?...its seems exciting chat like that stops a lively thread dead in its tracks!!!:)

[diable rouge]

Put it this way Cat, the 'EDF Remainers' won't be coming to your next barbie...;-)

[TheCat]

diable rouge Wrote:

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> Put it this way Cat, the 'EDF Remainers' won't be

> coming to your next barbie...;-)

You're missing out...you should see Mrs Cat when she gets a few gin's in her and starts up on the efficient frontier of modern portfolio theory...

You'll know when we're had a session, as they'll be a thread started in the main section complaining about a loud party, carrying on until at least 6:30pm....

[TheCat]

Perhaps this is more the right speed for this thread...

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/will-sturgeon-admit-to-the-cost-of-independence-

[Spartacus]

TheCat Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> diable rouge Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Put it this way Cat, the 'EDF Remainers' won't

> be

> > coming to your next barbie...;-)

>

>

> You're missing out...you should see Mrs Cat when

> she gets a few gin's in her and starts up on the

> efficient frontier of modern portfolio theory...

>

> You'll know when we're had a session, as they'll

> be a thread started in the main section

> complaining about a loud party, carrying on until

> at least 6:30pm....

Will there be fireworks ?

Nothing gets the forum curtain twitches going more than fireworks

New Years Eve (brexit fireworks)

New Years day (brexit fireworks)

February 12th (Chinese takeaway brexit fireworks)

July 4th (American brexit fireworks)

Nov 5th (guy blowing up Boris for brexit fireworks)

Diwali (Indian brexit fireworks)

Might as well go for broke and have the cats brexit BBQ fireworks 😱

[zerkalo]

@TheCat - There are complex reasons for this. Without deviating from the topic of this thread too much, the analysis below provides some evidence as to why many Greeks still think membership of the Euro has been overall positive. This is from a few years ago but after the EUzone crisis of 2015 so I think the findings are still very much relavant today. Look at table A5. Unless you have lived under the misery of the drachma it's hard to imagine what a massive difference the common currency has made for so many.

https://www.dianeosis.org/en/2017/04/greeks-believe-in-2017/

TheCat Wrote:

> Interesting. I personally find it quite

> extraordinary that a Greek national would suggest

> that Euro has been okay for Greece (not suggesting

> thats not a valid perspecive, just strongly

> disagree with the information I have focussed on).

> Sure...I can agree that membership of the EU has

> seen accelerated development over the past 40

> years as (particularly in the early years of

> membership as inbound investment, lending and

> support from EU membership was significant. But

> the adoption of the Euro has been a disaster for

> Greece.

>

> More specifically...EU membership allowed Greece

> to borrow heavily at low interest rates and then,

> when it ran into difficulty, its use of the Euro

> meant it could not devalue its own currency to get

> out of trouble (had they been able to do this, the

> greek debt crisis could have been largely

> averted). Consequently, the country?s eurozone

> partners (I.e. Germany), along with the

> International Monetary Fund, moved in and, in

> return for more, low-interest loans, demanded

> steep cuts in public spending. That austerity

> helped tip Greece into a deep recession, and over

> the past 10 years or so the economy has contracted

> by around a quarter....

[Blah Blah]

Sue Wrote:

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> I have a Scottish parent.

>

> Does that mean if Scotland gains independence I

> can have a Scottish passport?

>

> And if it joins the EU, an EU passport?

>

> Assuming I live that long, of course 😂

Yes it does. A lot of Brits will be able to take advantage of this. England could in theory lose half its population, given the right incentives :D

[Blah Blah]

I do find it odd that people who support Brexit are calling Scottish Independence a bad idea. If Brexit could promise sunlit uplands, then Scottish indy can do the same. After it, it doesn't seem to matter anymore if anything is actually true.

Just on the Euro, pretty sure two years membership of the ERM is required before switching to it anyway.

[Spartacus]

Blah Blah Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I do find it odd that people who support Brexit

> are calling Scottish Independence a bad idea. If

> Brexit could promise sunlit uplands, then Scottish

> indy can do the same. After it, it doesn't seem to

> matter anymore if anything is actually true.

>

> Just on the Euro, pretty sure two years membership

> of the ERM is required before switching to it

> anyway.

Just to play devil's advocate for a moment

I guess if you want to question logic , it's just as baffling why so many who wanted to remain part of a bigger whole, are supporting the idea of the UK splitting up.

Both your comment and the above seem to put people at odds with their views in the EU referendum.

There's nothing as queer as folk when it comes to politics

[Sephiroth]

it's not like for like

England wants to leave a bigger whole to be "sovrin'n'indipendunt" all by itself

Scotland wants away from a small Union (which is seemingly run by idiots (is there a border in Irish Sea or isn't there? govt can't even agree or acknowledge what it means) not to be all on it's own but to be part of a bigger union

Makes total sense. It doesn't come with zero downsides tho

So - wether you think Brexit or Scottish independence is Good or Bad or in-between, they aren't the same thing at all

[Seabag]

Spartacus Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Blah Blah Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > I do find it odd that people who support Brexit

> > are calling Scottish Independence a bad idea.

> If

> > Brexit could promise sunlit uplands, then

> Scottish

> > indy can do the same. After it, it doesn't seem

> to

> > matter anymore if anything is actually true.

> >

> > Just on the Euro, pretty sure two years

> membership

> > of the ERM is required before switching to it

> > anyway.

>

> Just to play devil's advocate for a moment

>

> I guess if you want to question logic , it's just

> as baffling why so many who wanted to remain part

> of a bigger whole, are supporting the idea of the

> UK splitting up.

>

> Both your comment and the above seem to put people

> at odds with their views in the EU referendum.

>

>

> There's nothing as queer as folk when it comes to

> politics

Simple, they want to with the people that think like them, feel like them, be in the same love of life as them

Not with the wankers that voted them ?out? of what they wanted to stay ?in?

And let?s be clear and honest, the UK has split up already. Brexit has been the single most devise anti nation exercise ever.

[Blah Blah]

You make a valid point Seabag. The UK has indeed already split with a range of divisions that will take decades to heal. But aren't they also a range of divisions that have always existed in some form somewhere? It is a set of certain circumstances that have amplified and brought them to the fore.

[Seabag]

Blah Blah Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> You make a valid point Seabag. The UK has indeed

> already split with a range of divisions that will

> take decades to heal. But aren't they also a range

> of divisions that have always existed in some form

> somewhere? It is a set of certain circumstances

> that have amplified and brought them to the fore.

Trouble is you?ve a party and a bunch of career politicians that have stoked these divisions. Then sought to capitalise on these divisions for their own ends. And what do you end up with? A divided disunited Kingdom, where Scotland and Ireland intend to go their own ways, and leave the English to own their tinpot grandiose idealism. It?s tragic. And within that, where does the monarchy sit? Precariously on a diminished seat of make believe kingdom.

I wonder how history will see them. Cameron deserves to be exiled to live in Grays in Essex for the rest of his days, and Johnson should be forced to be Trump?s butler for eternity.

[diable rouge]

Spartacus Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I guess if you want to question logic , it's just

> as baffling why so many who wanted to remain part

> of a bigger whole, are supporting the idea of the

> UK splitting up.

I don't want to see the break-up of the UK, I just see it as a natural knock-on effect of the hard Brexit we ended up with. Had it been a Brexit that reflected the closeness of the vote, that respected that Scotland and NI each had strong support to remain, i.e. a softer Norway-style deal where we remained in the Single Market, then I don't think we would be having this discussion. In the run-up to the 2014 Indy Ref a big deal was made by the No campaign that Scotland was stronger in the Union because we were in the EU, but that's been taken away, so I fully understand why a majority would now want to break away...

ETA: NI is a different situation, I've always believed that eventually it would become united with Ireland, but Brexit has speeded up that process...

[alex_b]

Exactly diable. For me pre-Brexit I didn?t think the loss of political control for the UK was in reality that significant. We were rarely outvoted, the measures we supported (eg single market in services) were of huge benefit, and where we were theoretically constrained (eg labour standards) my personal politics meant I valued the constraint.

Compare that to the position in Scotland where they are a permanent minority voice in the union, a fairly different outlook politically with a government in Westminster that?s going out of their way to antagonise them. I think the shift of English politics to the right and the changed economic circumstances post Brexit have changed the balance.

[Blah Blah]

I agree with that too. Scotland voted to stay part of a UK that was also part of the EU. Now that we are not, it changes everything. But here is the rub. Sturgeon in some ways is arguing for a choice between the EU or the Union, but the SNP are nationalists at heart and that has to be remembered. How will that nationalism sit in the context of the EU? Scottish voters will themselves decide which serves them best, but with Scottish fishing hurting and with other economic losses for farmers, Scotland may decide being part of that bigger market on the doorstep is going to serve them better than Westminster. They may also see rejoining the EU as beneficial for investment too. I could easily see an exodus to Scotland of business, skills and investment. Like many others, I would also qualify for a Scottish passport through lineage.

[alex_b]

Blah Blah Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Sturgeon in some ways is arguing for a choice

> between the EU or the Union, but the SNP are

> nationalists at heart and that has to be

> remembered. How will that nationalism sit in the

> context of the EU?

Scottish nationalism, or at least the SNP, have been vocally pro-EU for a very long time. I imagine this is for pragmatic (hard to see Scotland going it alone outside the EU as was a key point in the last referendum), historic (French, Scandinavian and Irish ties with certain Scots) and political (it winds up the English right wing). In that way the SNP are not a traditional isolationist nationalist party.

[Blah Blah]

I am inclined to agree with that Alex.

[TheCat]

alex_b Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Blah Blah Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Sturgeon in some ways is arguing for a choice

> > between the EU or the Union, but the SNP are

> > nationalists at heart and that has to be

> > remembered. How will that nationalism sit in

> the

> > context of the EU?

>

> Scottish nationalism, or at least the SNP, have

> been vocally pro-EU for a very long time. I

> imagine this is for pragmatic (hard to see

> Scotland going it alone outside the EU as was a

> key point in the last referendum), historic

> (French, Scandinavian and Irish ties with certain

> Scots) and political (it winds up the English

> right wing). In that way the SNP are not a

> traditional isolationist nationalist party.

Agree with this. The snp is using the idea of the EU as a tool to get what it it wants. I can't recall the SNP banging on about the EU in years gone by (I'm sure they may have mentioned it, but it wasn't a key plank in any way)....but now it's politically expedient to do so......

As I stated above, brexit and scexit are very different beasts....and I personally feel that the economic cost would be too much for the scots.

Before I get attacked on this.....I've stated a few times before that I was undecided pre-brexit referendum, but I ended up coming down on the side of leave on balance, after my own research, conscious that there would be a short term economic hit. In the case of Scotland, I think the economic hit is too much.....

[Seabag]

TheCat Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> alex_b Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Blah Blah Wrote:

> >

> --------------------------------------------------

>

> > -----

> > > Sturgeon in some ways is arguing for a choice

> > > between the EU or the Union, but the SNP are

> > > nationalists at heart and that has to be

> > > remembered. How will that nationalism sit in

> > the

> > > context of the EU?

> >

> > Scottish nationalism, or at least the SNP, have

> > been vocally pro-EU for a very long time. I

> > imagine this is for pragmatic (hard to see

> > Scotland going it alone outside the EU as was a

> > key point in the last referendum), historic

> > (French, Scandinavian and Irish ties with

> certain

> > Scots) and political (it winds up the English

> > right wing). In that way the SNP are not a

> > traditional isolationist nationalist party.

>

>

> Agree with this. The snp is using the idea of the

> EU as a tool to get what it it wants. I can't

> recall the SNP banging on about the EU in years

> gone by (I'm sure they may have mentioned it, but

> it wasn't a key plank in any way)....but now it's

> politically expedient to do so......

>

> As I stated above, brexit and scexit are very

> different beasts....and I personally feel that the

> economic cost would be too much for the scots.

>

> Before I get attacked on this.....I've stated a

> few times before that I was undecided post-brexit

> referendum, but I ended up coming down on the side

> of leave on balance, after my own research,

> conscious that there would be a short term

> economic hit. In the case of Scotland, I think the

> economic hit is too much.....

It depends how people ?feel? about it Cat

On the adding-up-the-sums logic, many people didn?t really apply the mathematics on Brexit, they went with gut or their heart, how it felt. And if it felt right, it was right.

So given the high feeling in Scotland, I?d not be so sure they don?t Braveheart it and go with the vote. And with that the collective unity might carry them through. That and maybe a bus with a dubious slogan or two, that?s how referendums are often won.

In fact, I?d go as far to say the more talk of ?how bad it?ll be for Scotland? , specially from the mouths of the current Tory Party truthsmiths, the more the vote seems likely.#ProjectMcFear #WillOfThePeople

P.S. I don?t often edit posts, but this adds to the tone deafness from Westminister. Keep it up, it?s all adding to the groundswell against the Union.

https://apple.news/A45QKEe02QGaexuHAueM9Zg

[diable rouge]

I've found that poll I referred to earlier, it's quite the eye opener...https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/18/most-conservative-members-would-see-party-destroye

Not only were Tory members strongly in favour of breaking up the Union, they were just as strongly in favour of there being ''significant'' damage to the UK economy and even the ''destruction'' of the Tory party itself, if it meant delivering Brexit. I think it's fair to say that for them at least, Brexit was definitely an emotional vote, and I suspect for a lot of non-Tory members likewise. I've long thought that how Cat came about his decision to vote Leave was an outlier, and instead most people voted on a more simplistic, emotional basis, on the Remain side too.

Any emotional vote very much plays into the 'Braveheart' narrative...

[diable rouge]

Seabag Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> P.S. I don?t often edit posts, but this adds to

> the tone deafness from Westminister. Keep it up,

> it?s all adding to the groundswell against the

> Union.

> https://apple.news/A45QKEe02QGaexuHAueM9Zg

Yep, the problem this Vote Leave Gov has is that it only knows how to fight on a 'culture war' basis, and this will backfire on them north of the border...