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TheCat Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I wonder if this latest fiasco being discussed on

> the vaccine wars thread will give many Scots cause

> to reconsider their preferred option?


If we compare to Brexit they want their sovereignty at whatever cost. Of course whether they then rejoin the EU is another decision.


I think there are possible scenarios that would turn the public off though but not sure what they are - personally I'd like a formal federal (Gordon Brown preferred) type system set in the constitution.

Apparently an Express writer was saying today that Wales need to have devolution removed before they "sleepwalk into independence"


Maybe shows what the Express writer thinks of Wales :)


This one if you can put up with the Express throwing adverts at your browser


https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1391153/Wales-news-welsh-assembly-independence-mark-drakeford-senedd

JohnL Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> TheCat Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > I wonder if this latest fiasco being discussed

> on

> > the vaccine wars thread will give many Scots

> cause

> > to reconsider their preferred option?

>

> If we compare to Brexit they want their

> sovereignty at whatever cost. Of course whether

> they then rejoin the EU is another decision.

>


While it appears to me (from afar) that there is of course a more hardcore group of Scottish independence supports who just want independence at any cost. It's hard to see how a major issue of any independence referendum would not be a painted as a straight up choice between remaining in the UK or re-joining the EU (at some future point)....

TheCat Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> JohnL Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > TheCat Wrote:

> >

> --------------------------------------------------

>

> > -----

> > > I wonder if this latest fiasco being

> discussed

> > on

> > > the vaccine wars thread will give many Scots

> > cause

> > > to reconsider their preferred option?

> >

> > If we compare to Brexit they want their

> > sovereignty at whatever cost. Of course

> whether

> > they then rejoin the EU is another decision.

> >

>

> While it appears to me (from afar) that there is

> of course a more hardcore group of Scottish

> independence supports who just want independence

> at any cost. It's hard to see how a major issue of

> any independence referendum would not be a painted

> as a straight up choice between remaining in the

> UK or re-joining the EU (at some future point)....


The fightback to that would be stay in the UK and fight their corner ... although I admit if I had a valid Irish ancestor I'd grab dual nationality just for the opportunities so if I'm representative I get their feelings.


There could be the weakness in the argument for independence if many are considering voting that way because of EU membership as there's a lot more to Scottish independence than EU membership. The NO campaign could run with that.


The weakness in Welsh Devolution across Wales was always the idea that Cardiff would run your lives for their petty interests - so for years Swansea and other areas were anti devolution - even when the vote came it took a large vote in Carmarthenshire to wipe out what was a NO lead from Swansea and other areas for most of the night.

TheCat Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------


> While it appears to me (from afar) that there is

> of course a more hardcore group of Scottish

> independence supports who just want independence

> at any cost. It's hard to see how a major issue of

> any independence referendum would not be a painted

> as a straight up choice between remaining in the

> UK or re-joining the EU (at some future point)....


The anecdotal evidence I have of Scottish voters backs this up, previous 'No to Indy' voters would now vote 'Yes' if it meant Scotland rejoining the EU. And the timing of the change in the polls would suggest this too, so the Yes camp probably needs to come up with a plan than would realistically enable that. During the 2014 IndyRef the EU was decidely lukewarm to the idea, but that was before Brexit, and as these thoughts from Kirsty Hughes, writer and commentator on Scottish, European & UK politics suggest, the EU will be much more open to the idea and there is a possible route to independence and joining the EU...



As SNP set out 11 point plan to indyref, a few comments on route to independence in EU - drawing on in-depth research interviews across many EU member states.

There is a clear path to re-joining EU if independence done in legal, constitutional way with agreement Edinburgh-London.


There's more understanding of Scottish independence in EU now than in 2014 but also a wide range of views - EU govts do not look at the fragmentation of the UK as positive (UK has caused enough trouble via Brexit) but if Scotland was independent then EU wd be pragmatic.


Whether section 30 order or other route to independence, EU member states & Brussels, will be looking for political agreement between Edinburgh & London, an agreed divorce, rUK recognition of iScotland. This is especially important for Spain but for others too.


Any plan B needs in the end to bring UK govt to table to agree separation w iScotland. Without initial London agreement to a referendum or other route to indy, then political uncertainty and a rUK-Scotland stand-off likely to develop. EU govts would stand well back from this.


In face of valid independence process, iScotland cd apply to EU through normal accession process. If in near(ish) future, & iScotland not diverged too far from meeting EU single mkt criteria & other regs, then process cd be as swift as 4-5 years.


iScotland as a 5 million, northern European state, democracy, market economy (& having been in EU for 47 yrs) wd not look technically or politically challenging to EU - more straightforward than W Balkans accession processes tho yes issues include currency, deficit.


There will be a transition out of UK, into EU. This wd be managed through a Scotland-EU association agreement.

European Economic Area (EEA) is not a transition route but an alternative to EU;EEA membership requires agreement of EU 27 & EEA3 & wd not be available on day 1 of indy.


Most recent EU accessions have seen candidates hold referendums on joining EU after they have completed talks w EU. For iScotland, this wd mean those who oppose EU or even EEA membership cd express their views in such a vote.

TheCat Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> While it appears to me (from afar) that there is

> of course a more hardcore group of Scottish

> independence supports who just want independence

> at any cost. It's hard to see how a major issue of

> any independence referendum would not be a painted

> as a straight up choice between remaining in the

> UK or re-joining the EU (at some future point)....


You?re right, but I also think Brexit has opened up another more fundamental issue in the independence case. Brexit (and the huge Tory majority it led to in 2019) has demonstrated that Scotland and Scottish voters have no real voice in the Union. In the Labour years and even under the coalition there were a decent number of Scottish cabinet members and one of the governing parties were a large party in Scottish politics. Post-2015 this wasn?t the case, and was made worse by Johnson and May seeming to go out of their way to snub Scotland.


As a Brexiteer I?m sure you can see the power of the narrative of Scotland being dictated to by the UK. It?s hard to see how that could ever change without a really radical constitutional realignment and even then I think there is so much suspicion and resentment that it probably wouldn?t be enough.


I?m sure we?ll disagree about whether it?s better to be a small nation in the EU or a small nation in the UK, but I expect the framing will be about more than the narrow question of EU membership.

I read a couple of articles today that questions if Scotland could afford to go independent.

Whilst support for the vote to be independent has for the moment risen, the possible factors that may not allow it includes Scotland's current deficit and how long would it take then to become an EU member once they become independent.


https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/Can-Scotland-afford-independence


https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/scottish-independence-if-scotland-breaks-free-uk-it-faces-bankruptcy-and-eu-cant-afford-let-it-rejoin-soon-jim-duffy-3100330


Both articles paint a bleak future with austerity a big factor.


It would be interesting to see what the figures, calculations and projections are and I believe that with part of Scotland's projected income being oil and gas revenues , both of which are declining in use (shift to electric cars and shifts away from gas for heating) then the model may be even less plausible over the next twenty years.


There is part of the current plan that sees Scotland becoming a major offshore wind farm but as that's a free resource that can be farmed virtually anywhere there's wind then that could be a risky strategy.


I think there's a lot more to the debate than Scotland wanting to get out of the UK, including finance, reentry to Europe and it's future in the world market.

Good and fair comment alex_b


Seems like a big part of the problem which the UK has is what i see is the 'halfway house' regime known as 'devolution'. I would think that a country this size should either have no regional governments at all between boroughs and national gov (but I know there's hundreds of years of history that make this probably not practical in this case!), OR the UK should have a proper federal system - the problem here is that this would probably need to see England broken up into smaller 'states' as England being one state with over 80percent of the population would cause similar issues as to what we have now with devolution. (I don't think a federal system can work well with such a concentration of the population in one state -even if the upper house has equal state representation to offset the lower house concentration in one state, this can still cause significant risk of regular hung legislation and stalemate in such an uneven 'state' system as the current UK.


I'd also echo Spartacus's comment above. I remember looking over the numbers in 2014, and being very much unconvinced that Scotland could afford to go it alone. Of course it wasn't a descision that I had to make, but as an observer, I felt there was far too much reliance on north sea petroleum revenues, which is a dying industry. So that would be a fascinated part of the overall debate for sure.

I think you?re right about the halfway house problem for devolution. The idea at the time was to have devolution in the English regions too, but many (most?) of these were rejected at referendums. My view is that most people don?t have a strong sense identity below the country level perhaps with the exception of a few counties (Yorkshire/Cornwall) or towns/cities (Liverpool/Manchester). Also the government were reluctant to cede real power to the regions making them a bit of a talking shop and nothing else. Even London which has a reasonable amount of control in terms of transport and policing still struggles for legitimacy and to differentiate with the boroughs. I?m struggling to think of another G20 country of our size that?s so centralised (Germany, Australia and Canada are all more decentralised) but it?s tricky to see how to fix it. It?s why I think Scotland and N. Ireland will leave in the next 10 years, the pressure is all in one direction (perhaps this was true of the National conversation about the EU too).


As for going it alone, I certainly thought that Scotland couldn?t afford to go it alone in 2014. However post-Brexit I?d have to look again, there?s a potential for them to be another Ireland in terms of a services gateway to the EU. Also a strategy that relies on a long term subsidy from London to Edinburgh also seems as risky as a reliance on petroleum revenue.

Despite the various Gov impact assessments showing an economic downside of No Deal and May's Deal (Johnson's deal hasn't had one but considered between the two), I don't recall many Leave voters being deterred by them... ''What price sovereignty?!''

It's another example that if used by this Vote Leave Gov, it will simply get thrown back in their faces... ''It's a price worth paying!''

#ProjectMcFear...

Disunited it is and sadly becoming more so.

I say this a an expatriate Scot who despairs at the Anglophobia being stoked up by the SNP. Their devolved government has made changes to the content of history education which can only generate anti-England feelings.


Some of us know about the suppression of the 1715 and 1745 uprisings and the subsequent violent Highland clearances resulting in the diaspora of the Scoots to places like Canada, America and Australia. But this was never part of the history I was taught taught. It was 250 years ago and best left as a distant memory rather than used as a fire to be stoked to achieve nationalist ambitions.


Sadly the kids in Scotland are now being brainwashed with a version of history that suits only the aims of the SNP. Negativity towards the Union is emphasised throughout the curriculum and in the exam questions. Allegedly us Scots have been "downtrodden for 800 years".


Sadly also, like all nations, Scotland has not only its share of ignorant, misguided people but they sometimes make it into government.

Sue Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I have a Scottish parent.

>

> Does that mean if Scotland gains independence I

> can have a Scottish passport?



Most probably, because you can get an Irish PP if you have one Irish grand parent from either the North or South.

Hamletter Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Sue Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > I have a Scottish parent.

> >

> > Does that mean if Scotland gains independence I

> > can have a Scottish passport?

>

>

> Most probably, because you can get an Irish PP if

> you have one Irish grand parent from either the

> North or South.



Yes that was what brought it to mind.

Once Scotland and Ireland are independent, then what of the monarchy?


It?ll be like being the King or Queen of Luxembourg or some piddly joke island.


I?m thinking we call it #Quexit or #Kexit depending whether we have a Queen or King, either way it?ll be a diminutive role.


But maybe that?s the Greatness of Brexit Plan. F**k the country & the Union up, become a republic and fulfill the Presidential dream.


President (Britain Trump) Boris



Aaahhh haaa ha! My head just fell off. We are so sh*t.

diable rouge Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Despite the various Gov impact assessments showing

> an economic downside of No Deal and May's Deal

> (Johnson's deal hasn't had one but considered

> between the two), I don't recall many Leave voters

> being deterred by them... ''What price

> sovereignty?!''

> It's another example that if used by this Vote

> Leave Gov, it will simply get thrown back in their

> faces... ''It's a price worth paying!''

> #ProjectMcFear...



True. But I think the devil is in the detail here. While Brexit and Scexit are similar in concept, they are very different in terms of practicalities of delivery of course. Just as Britain needs to refocus its legislation and incentivisation of various sectors for Brexit to be a long term success, so to does Scotland need to change its entire economic model. Personally, I believe that that would need to happen in a significantly more drastic way than compared to Britain/Brexit.


The massive, oversized elephant in the room being the currency....if the price of rejoining the EU was accepting the Euro, that would be a total dealbreaker as far as Im concerned regardless of almost anything else. The Euro has been a disaster from start to finish - and for a country like Scotland trying to establish itself as an independent economy with a changing business model, without any control over your currency - well...lets just say I think that would make the most heinous Brexit project fear forecasts seem like a walk in the sunlit uplands....


But anyway...perhaps getting to technical for the moment, there are just high level thoughts...im sure when it comes to it they'll be plenty of economic reports to pore over in good time, and maybe there's a rabbit in the hat im not aware of yet...

Sue Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I have a Scottish parent.

>

> Does that mean if Scotland gains independence I

> can have a Scottish passport?

>

> And if it joins the EU, an EU passport?

>

> Assuming I live that long, of course 😂


My middle name is Scott but I think the ancestry on my mothers side is too far removed.


If Wales got independence I would feel obliged to take up a passport at whatever cost (hopefully dual) but that decision is not close at present.

TheCat Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> diable rouge Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Despite the various Gov impact assessments

> showing

> > an economic downside of No Deal and May's Deal

> > (Johnson's deal hasn't had one but considered

> > between the two), I don't recall many Leave

> voters

> > being deterred by them... ''What price

> > sovereignty?!''

> > It's another example that if used by this Vote

> > Leave Gov, it will simply get thrown back in

> their

> > faces... ''It's a price worth paying!''

> > #ProjectMcFear...

>

>

> True. But I think the devil is in the detail here.

> While Brexit and Scexit are similar in concept,

> they are very different in terms of practicalities

> of delivery of course. Just as Britain needs to

> refocus its legislation and incentivisation of

> various sectors for Brexit to be a long term

> success, so to does Scotland need to change its

> entire economic model. Personally, I believe that

> that would need to happen in a significantly more

> drastic way than compared to Britain/Brexit.

>

> The massive, oversized elephant in the room being

> the currency....if the price of rejoining the EU

> was accepting the Euro, that would be a total

> dealbreaker as far as Im concerned regardless of

> almost anything else. The Euro has been a disaster

> from start to finish - and for a country like

> Scotland trying to establish itself as an

> independent economy with a changing business

> model, without any control over your currency -

> well...lets just say I think that would make the

> most heinous Brexit project fear forecasts seem

> like a walk in the sunlit uplands....

>

> But anyway...perhaps getting to technical for the

> moment, there are just high level thoughts...im

> sure when it comes to it they'll be plenty of

> economic reports to pore over in good time, and

> maybe there's a rabbit in the hat im not aware of

> yet...



Scotland could join the EEA/Common Market/EFTA to start I guess and keep something poundlike in the meantime. Until it happens we really don't know how far other countries (including England) would go to to accommodate or not. I'd hope if it happened and there was no choice they'd be pragmatic.

All there well and good TheCat, but it?s the mood of the people. And if they want out, they want out. Look at the mess we?re in here in the Dis-U.K already, and people are still happy.


Once people want what they want, there?s little reasoning with them. It?s the will of the people and all that. The people of Scotland will be highly aware of Britain Trump?s lie machine, even if they splash their truths on the sides of a bus.

Would gas, fish and off shore wind farms be contentious issues, and any implications for relations with Denmark and Netherlands (EU) and Norway (not so much, thank you, despite being asked many times) also be factors in a Scottish UK exit/EU entry?


I'm just asking because I don't know.


TheCat, you said that the Euro has been a disaster in whole but is that 100% right? Yes, I can think of several key moments - Greek financial for example - but rollout was good, simplification of exchange in the block, better established and stronger trade block. Appears you might not see things as others do on the Euro - what do you mean by disaster start to finish?

Italy's actually gone up, John, though I'm unsure as to whether this is down to immigration as opposed to native Italians' increased reproduction.

The terrifying numbers are in Eastern Europe, where ageing populations and poorer health care, combined with emigration, are dwindling several of those states' populations (and it's mainly a net drift to the EU hub or what's next to it - us). To me, Bulgaria is a prime example, and I cannot believe that the EU really gives a toss about them as a country or a culture or (even though they're European!) a people - they're just useful to the EU as a member state for cheap labour. I do not believe that the EU has any genuine compassion for some of these countries and their folk, whether they're absorbed or in line. The EU is based in Western Europe and pretends that Brussels is the HQ, and Germany always needs workers...


Rant over, sorry to digress :-)

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