Sunlit uplands. Are we there yet?

[diable rouge]

The real bellwether about whether Brexit has been good or not is how much, or in this case, how little it's proponents 'big it up'. Where are all the Brexit cheerleaders telling us how good it's been? Their relative silence speaks volumes...

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

TBF the pandemic is a big reason why schools aren't doing much international travel, and cheerleaders tend to pack up once the game is over.

[TheCat]

diable rouge Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> The real bellwether about whether Brexit has been

> good or not is how much, or in this case, how

> little it's proponents 'big it up'. Where are all

> the Brexit cheerleaders telling us how good it's

> been? Their relative silence speaks volumes...

Well....moving past the 'there is only upside' quote that keeps getting trundled out about 'what was promised'.....

My own view (and I think even my harshest critics must attest I've been consistent on this, even if they dont like it) is that the first few years would alwasy be the toughest, and we would see some short term pain before the opening up of longer term opportunity. So yeah....anyone sensible who shares my view probably isnt beating their chests and cheerleading right now, as that should never realy have been expected.

Some people may mock this view with the 'jam tomorrow' type lines. But its a legitimate position to take (again, even if you dont like it); and if the goverbnment actually gets off their @rse to start delivering on some of the potentioal (like rolling back Mifid II and GDPR, for example) then the benefits of those actions will indeed take time to filter through. Thats not me 'avoiing the real impacts', its ackowledging them, and being pragmatic about when we might actually see overall really benefits (I spoke earlier in the thread about economies taking to to adjust). In that context I think its churlish to see comments on here constantly asking 'where's the sunlit uplands?' after 11 months, and jumping on any bad news with a 'Ha, we told you so ferocity!'

As an aside, since some posters on here are so big on 'what was promised'....The fire and mayhem promised by many on the remaine side hasnt really come to pass either has it? Yes there have been problems (dare I say, 'teething issues'), and there still are more to negotiate. But the country hasnt gone to hell in a handbasket, despite its many problems and challenges( and no...those sort of apocolypitc forecast werent just associated with a 'No deal' outcome). To pre-empt the expected response, yes....you will be able to point to things that remainers warned would happen, that have happened; but equally you can point to a bunch of remainer predictions that havent.....so perhaps no side has delivered on what they promised, and we should just let that go and look forward...

[JohnL]

Didn't Jacob Mogg state 50 years

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jacob-rees-mogg-economy-brexit_uk_5b54e3b5e4b0de86f48e3566

Some of us will be over 100

[Sephiroth]

One part of the UK has outperformed the rest

Can you guess which one?

Clue: it?s the part that brexiteers are trying to drag down with rest of them whilst claiming simultaneously that the outperforming part is suffering and needs to be renegotiated

https://www.ft.com/content/3b5059c4-4ef1-44d1-ae1f-43a875efb7ca

[diable rouge]

My own view...is that the first few years would alwasy be the toughest, and we would see some short term pain before the opening up of longer term opportunity.

And if that doesn't materialise we all know what follows.

That wasn't my Brexit

And so it goes on...

[diable rouge]

Dogkennelhillbilly Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> ...cheerleaders tend to pack up once the game is over.

Poor choice of word on my part, I was actually referring to the protagonists i.e. Johnson et al.

I think we all know that had there been any actual tangible benefits there would've been a lot of tubthumping from this Gov...

[TheCat]

diable rouge Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> My own view...is that the first few years would

> alwasy be the toughest, and we would see some

> short term pain before the opening up of longer

> term opportunity.

>

> And if that doesn't materialise we all know what

> follows.

>

> That wasn't my Brexit

>

> And so it goes on...

Um yeah....that's how the world works...everyone has a different opinion/views...and when it comes to elections or referendums...those views have to get squeezed into the available options...

Do all labour voters have exactly the same view on specifics of every policy they want implemented? Did all remainers have the exact same view of what the country and EU relationship would look like in 5 years, had we of remained?

Of course not.

[Sephiroth]

General elections not same as referendums

Referendums should be about deliverables available to and within the power of those holding referendums

The 2016 referendum as presented and argued was not deliverable by uk govt

We have left the eu. That much is true. But with none of the promised benefits. With many many many downsides glibly dismissed by cat in his longer post above. And with no seeming mechanism to rethink (unlike referendums in other countries or general elections in this country)

Oh and also with us not even implementing all of the rules - ie goods are not yet checked coming into GB. more barriers to come

If the country isn?t on fire, it?s because we signed a deal and postponed for several years most of the mechanisms of leaving.

So yay. Not on fire. Whoop

Just years of continued decline (and ridicule)

[TheCat]

You do know that the OBR long run GDP forecast which you love to trumpet don't call for decline at all?

The OBR expects GDP to be 4percent lower due to Brexit thanThen would otherwise. But still positive trend growth. So I'm not sure what figures you're using to justify the repeated claim of continual decline.

As an aside, there are many serious economists that question the OBR's methodologies in getting to that figure. But in anycase 4 percent different on a long term forecast???....that's well within a margin for error for any long term forecast, so not sure if it's something to get ones knickers in a twist over.

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

Sephiroth Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Referendums should be about deliverables available

> to and within the power of those holding

> referendums

Not realistic tho. Sometimes you need to take a punt. Look at the Scottish referendum...

...sorry, I lost interest halfway through

[KidKruger]

What?s the point in seeking evidence of Brexit successes ?

It was obvious that the referendum was sold and won on a pile of undeliverable promises (ie. bullshit).

The fact that Brexit has happened doesn?t ?un-bullshit? those promises.

That?s as obvious now as it was then, literally no surprises.

[diable rouge]

Agree KK but there still needs to be accountability, especially as we have a Gov that won on the back of Brexit, and I envisage they will try again with a ''Don't ley them undo Brexit'' schtick at the next election...

[zerkalo]

Brexit has been unravelling fast for everyone but the most ardent of its supporters.

Has anyone here mentioned the folly of ?taking back control of our borders? yet? Under EU law the UK could legitimately return people at the first country of entry under the Dublin agreement. Not so much anymore! When the UK government say they want to stop illegal smuggling what they really mean is that they want to stop people from coming here.

[diable rouge]

TheCat Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Do all labour voters have exactly the same view on

> specifics of every policy they want implemented?

If I voted for a Labour Gov and they then proceeded to royally screw up, failed to deliver on promises etc, I would stick my hand up in the air and say I was wrong to vote for them, not look for a convenient Get Out of Jail card because I didn't agree with certain things in their manifesto.

It's called collective responsibility...

[TheCat]

diable rouge Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> TheCat Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

>

> > Do all labour voters have exactly the same view

> on

> > specifics of every policy they want

> implemented?

>

>

> If I voted for a Labour Gov and they then

> proceeded to royally screw up, failed to deliver

> on promises etc, I would stick my hand up in the

> air and say I was wrong to vote for them, not look

> for a convenient Get Out of Jail card because I

> didn't agree with certain things in their

> manifesto.

>

> It's called collective responsibility...

How very noble of you. Its interesting you pick that example of the two I liste, given how well Labour and its supporters are known for their collective togetherness:)

Anyway....i've made this poiint before, which constantly gets swatted away by the angyr mob...but you have to seperate the concetn of Brexit with how its being implemented - and on that point I'll concede that they government are not doing enough to make brexit a success (and as I've said since consistently since 2016, I've never liked this government, and who they are and what they 'promised' had very little influence on my referendum vote). That doesnt invalidate the fact that there are opprunities that can be taken which are not (or at least, not yet).

Lets hypothesise that Labour win teh next election in a few years...but they also pledge not to reverse Brexit as it would be electoral suicide.....so they will be the one's takign action for the bettrerment or otherwise of the country...the same opporuntities and drawbacks will be open to them as are open to the Tories now....will we be able to seperate the two then?

[Sephiroth]

"Did all remainers have the exact same view of what the country and EU relationship would look like in 5 years, had we of remained? "

We had been members for decades and were prospering - remaining was a known quantity.

27 countries continue to do it. It's a facile argument

No other country in the word is putting up barriers with it's closest neighbours and inflicting financial damage on itself

[diable rouge]

TheCat Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> How very noble of you. Its interesting you pick

> that example of the two I liste, given how well

> Labour and its supporters are known for their

> collective togetherness:)

I didn't highlight the second part of that paragraph because I thought it was a false equivalence and not worth commenting on.

I don't identify as a Labour voter, more a tactical/swing voter, however in the current climate I'm very likely to vote Labour.

Labour has always been a broad church (perhaps its downfall) but safe to say I would reserve a special place in Hell for Lexiters.

> Lets hypothesise that Labour win teh next election

> in a few years...but they also pledge not to

> reverse Brexit as it would be electoral

> suicide.....so they will be the one's takign

> action for the bettrerment or otherwise of the

> country...the same opporuntities and drawbacks

> will be open to them as are open to the Tories

> now....will we be able to seperate the two then?

I doubt Labour would try to reverse Brexit, certainly not without another referendum (by the way, I don't think it would be electoral suicide if there was a pact with the other progressive parties, after all it was the split progressive vote and the Brexit Party standing down that gave the Tories their victory, not an actual majority in favour of Brexit...polls have widened since).

Instead, I think (hope) they would try and align us closer to the EU, e.g. work towards a Norway style model. You have to remember that the EU are not going to welcome us back unless there is a clear change of opinion in favour of rejoining, so until that happened I can see a strategy of slowly renewing economic ties with the EU gaining general public approval, hopefully leading to the return of FoM.

In other words, a form of Brexit that could've happened before the evangelical cranks took over...

[TheCat]

@ Sephiroth

I bet if I had asked you about the state of the country at the start of June 2016, you wouldnt have desctibed it as 'propspering'.....

A known quantity??...sorry I have to stridently disagree...when it comes to ecosystems as complex and variable as national/global economies and politics, there is no such this as the 'status quo'. Sure, you might prefer more certainty than someone who voted leave, but its a sliding scale (somewhat unknown versus a bit more than somewhat unknown), not a binary comparison (known versus unknown). Dont kid yourself that EU membership would have meant 'everything stays the same'....I mean come on...over the past 20 odd years, you probably couldnt pick another part of the OECD that has seen more volatility/uncertainty than the collective EU member states. At least outside of the EU, the UK's volatility is its own, not inexcroably liniked to the ups and downs of 27 other nations. Yes, often there is strength in a diverse portfolio, but the UK as one of the stronger, richer nations within the EU was invariably not the benficiary of this pooled approach to volatility. So..in short...I am still confident in my view that every remainer would have had a slightly different view of the future in their head when they voted, just as all leavers would have as well..

Anyway...finally, to your points about 27 other countries not doing it...Im not really sure how that has anything to do with the topic of remainers likely all looking at slightly different outcolmes in 5 years time? or how that proves Im making a facile arguement? (perhaps a good example of that whataboutery that I have accused you of)

[Sephiroth]

"In other words, a form of Brexit that could've happened before the evangelical cranks took over..."

Doesn't that leave the UK as a rule taker rather than a rule-maker as part of the EU tho? Isn't that one of the big no-nos (and not just for extreme leavers?)

It's why I don't think this gentleman's brexit can ever exist - the contradictions never survive contact with reality and the diametrically opposed multi-headed factions of leave

Whereas everyone who voted remain knew 100% what it was they were voting for - by definition. It was already A Thing

[Sephiroth]

Sorry Cat - that is just a word salad without any real meaning. And exposes you as a little more extreme than even I had figured

[Sephiroth]

"At least outside of the EU, the UK's volatility is its own, not inexcroably liniked to the ups and downs of 27 other nations."

but because of geography, trade, politics and yes culture, that isn't true

"he UK as one of the stronger, richer nations within the EU was invariably not the benficiary of this pooled approach to volatility."

it entered, begging to join, because it was on it's knees. It prospered in and because of eu membership.

If I wouldn't describe the UK as prospering in 2016 it would be because of 6 years of austerity programme. But it was still in a better place than it is now (or will be in 10, 20 or 50 years). Even lost it's credit rating

If Labour had been elected in 2015 and overseen the level of financial hit this country has actually taken, people would be absolutely livid

[diable rouge]

Sephiroth Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Doesn't that leave the UK as a rule taker rather

> than a rule-maker as part of the EU tho? Isn't

> that one of the big no-nos (and not just for

> extreme leavers?)

Yep, but in the current circumstances I suspect a majority of people would accept that, especially if it was done in a softly softly catchy monkey kinda way. I'm not an advocate of any kind of Brexit, but unfortunately it's where we are at the moment and that's the best of a bad bunch.

What do you think should happen?...

[Sephiroth]

I think realigning slowly overtime will be the path chosen - but I don't expect all of the usual suspects to be happy about it and given the problems they caused before brexit and since - I don't know how stable a path this will be domestically

I would favour poltiical leaders talking about the cost of the barriers/lack of control in decision making and commission regular polling on possibility of a second referendum

Any way forward is fraught - but not sure we can sustain current situation for long (3 prime ministers in as many years with possibly another one on his way? This is madness)

[Sephiroth]

"Yep, but in the current circumstances I suspect a majority of people would accept that"

I mean, I suspect the majority of people wish we had never had the referendum and voted to leave.

(But I also think there is some weird blockage, unique to this country, which prevents many of those people from admitting it or even worse taking any action to reverse it. But there we are)