Sunlit uplands. Are we there yet?

[Sephiroth]

"but perhaps in 6 months when domestic demand is far exceeding consumption in Europe (which is still locked-down as vaccinations lag), we might be talking about different relative winners and receive losers."

and it's ME that needs to seek help

Right

[Sephiroth]

"in Europe (which is still locked-down as vaccinations lag)"

I mean, this does give the impression that countries in Europe have more than the UK 1500-200k deaths a day, and that they are in lockdown and Uk isn't right?

European countries are behind in raw 1st vaccination numbers that's true - but are they worse off/behind in overall health terms?

[Sephiroth]

not even mentioned in recent posts is the near-certainty of the UK no longer being a thing

had to look back at the referendum thread from 2014 and found this from quidsy:

"Because the despite the relentless propoganda on their nastyness etc the tories have principles and believe that the union is and has been a good thing - above political expediency...just possibly"

and you look at the landscape now and just weep - how wrong is it possible to be

[TheCat]

Seabag...Okay....fine....I wanted to avoid individual anecdotes, as that's not really how a massive decision such as this should be discussed in my view.

I work in financial services. My business has no provision at all in the FTA agreement with the EU as I'm sure you well know. At the moment, I'm unable to provide new services to around 50percent of my client base.

As I said, big decisions have relative winners and losers, so lets also look back a few years. Without going into specifics, what I do had absolutley nothing to do with causing the global financial crisis of 2008, but the resultant legislation (incidently, championed by the EU in the public witch hunt against 'bankers' at the time) affected my business in a very detrimental way. It was intended to increase transparency and competition, and it's done the exact opposite, with the large, bulge bracket financial institutions consolidating their market leading positions, and everyone else losing out. I have had to adapt what I do (as British business will do this time), and now earn significantly less than I did 10 years ago. I have been building things back up...and now there will be a bump in that recovery road provided by brexit's lack of a service agreement...

As you've noted, I still support brexit, as I think the policy flexibility will be of benefit longer term.

Does this background now give my position any more credibility in your eyes? I don't think it should, and I haven't mentioned this (or moaned about it) until now for that reason. You may disagree, but carrying on like your view is the only one that matters because your business is one that suffers?

Get outside your echo chamber.

[Seabag]

Oh please, I?m well outside my echo chamber. It?s just slightly glib type comments that ?it?ll probably be fine? that?s making me want to metaphorically kick people.

It is not fine. The experiment is failing already. Mostly because a lack of detail and honesty from those that kicked this sh*tball over the line. Those that get paid still, whilst they experiment with other people's lives.

Namely the architects of this demise.

I?m happy when it works for you to say ?I told you so? but in the same grace, while it fails allow us and people like me to say it how it is

[Blah Blah]

I have to support Seabag here. Why? Because even though you have been hit by the impacts of 2008 etc TheCat, I am willing to wager you were still left with a decent livelihood. The people being hit by the disruptions in trade are in no such comfortable position. And you are incredibly glib about that, as Seabag points out. You clearly see people's livelihoods as mere collateral damage, well people not as fortunate as you that it. Because those are the people that this lousy trade agreement are going to hit hardest. They don't have ten years for things to adjust and iron themselves out. The best deal was always the one we had as a member of the EU. Nothing changes that. Replacing what is lost by leaving is going to be harder than you think.

[KidKruger]

TheCat Wrote:

-------------

> ...there would always be some portion of the economy we could point to as suffering more than others.

perhaps, but not being able to 'point to' it until AFTER the fact due to eternal unknowns, was destructive to many livelihoods.

> ....and some who are feeling the pinch now, might be feeling benefits then and vice versa....

This works if those feeling the pinch can go on feeling the pinch for months and months (or even years ?), which is unrealistic. How many business can continue with rent, rates, staff costs, rotting produce, indefinitely until they top feeling the pinch ? Very few I'd wager.

[TheCat]

Blah Blah...and this is exactly why people talking about specific anecdotes is distracting. And why I refused for quite some time to discuss my own background or sector.

Your 'wager' about my 'decent livelihood' is totally without any basis. Other than the sector I work in, you know absolutely nothing about my business, or financial situation. So your totally baseless opinion means exactly two-thirds of bugger all.

By way of example, allow me to muse on seabag's business, which I know absolutley nothing about (my apologies seabag for what follows). But if seabag's business has lost 500K in the past 3 weeks then sounds like he has a decent livelihood to begin with. Shall we dismiss his views then? Even if he's extrapolating to a year of losses, that's still a decent business that many people could only dream of. But I'm just wildly guessing here, which it is totally unfair to do so. So I'd thank you to refrain from doing so about me and my situation.

So perhaps we should all just mind our own business about people"s personal circumstances..particularly judgements about their relative financial comfort, and discuss the bigger picture.

Also, once again you're at it with the ill-informed character assassinations...."You clearly see people's livelihoods as mere collateral damage, well people not as fortunate as you that is" . You make this statement armed with nothing more than your prejudice and bias. It's also not the first time I've called you out for making wild and baseless assumptions on people's character on this forum.

It's funny how so many people on here are so concerned with the 'real human cost' of brexit, until one of those humans has the 'wrong' view on things.....

[JohnL]

Sephiroth Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> With brexiteers like Kawczynski urging their

> deployment

Just caught this one but wasn't he assigned to Mongolia

Whens he going

[malumbu]

Wasn't sure where best to post these articles and this was the first Brexit thread that I found looking back on the forum.

Very much closing the stable door after the horse has bolted, remainers saying "told you so", and Brexiteers will respond along the lines of 'remoaners' but some interesting articles in any case. They tell you what we all know, that we went down a hard Brexit that we hadn't voted for by mistake (May) and later move to the right (Johnson).

The articles are interviews with senior civil servants, ministers and the ex-speaker all of who didn't support a hard Brexit. And of course we are where we are so need to get on with it. But some comfort in that the views on most of this forum are supported, although plenty of ammunition for those that don't share the same views.

How the Tories? new direction left government directionless, and other Brexit stories: https://www.globalgovernmentforum.com/how-tories-new-direction-left-government-directionless-brexit-stories/

Black comedy of errors: how the UK accidentally left the Single Market, and other Brexit stories (the gospel according to Hammond. https://www.globalgovernmentforum.com/how-the-uk-accidentally-left-the-single-market-and-other-brexit-stories/

Future generations will leave it to history to judge, but I still find it very sad how we got to where we are. The EU despite the farce over vaccinations wants to return to free movement, including Norway and Switzerland. I expect that post Covid we will be out of that for some time.

[malumbu]

More reading on the subject

Special advisors: (Secret story: inside the delivery suite with the reluctant midwives of Brexit) https://www.globalgovernmentforum.com/secret-story-inside-delivery-suite-reluctant-midwives-brexit/

And personalities/behaviours including boxing yourself in Mrs May https://www.globalgovernmentforum.com/politics-personalities-how-three-bad-behaviours-shaped-brexit/

[TheCat]

Interesting articles Mal. Certainly highlights the quite tumultuous and often downright chaotic path we have been on in getting to where we are today. I've said many times, the government didn't make the process look easy by any stretch, and these articles certainly lend weight to that.

Clearly still plenty of water to flow under the brexit bridge as well, not least of all the northern Irish situation, which is a clear concern.

All that said....it appears sentiment towards the whole thing is shifting somewhat as well, and seemingly not solely down to the vaccine bounce...

From the DT today.....

Was this the week the country finally accepted Brexit?

Between the vaccine rollout, the likely economic recovery and the calming of trade frictions, public perception has improved significantly

JULIAN JESSOP

13 April 2021 ? 12:30pm

Brexit is not yet done and there are plenty of problems that still need fixing, especially in Northern Ireland. Nonetheless, public perceptions of Brexit have improved significantly, business concerns are fading, and now we have some hard evidence of a quick rebound in UK-EU trade too.

According to the latest Ipsos MORI poll, more Britons now think the decision to leave the EU has had a positive impact on the UK (39 per cent) than negative (38 per cent). Of course, this is well within the margin of error, but it reflects an 8-point increase in positive sentiment in just one month.

In addition, a new poll by JL Partners for Bloomberg suggests that if there were a referendum tomorrow, 56 per cent would vote to stay out of the EU and only 44 per cent to rejoin (excluding 'don?t knows' and 'won?t says').

This can largely be attributed to the mess that the EU is making of the response to Covid. Some will continue to argue that the UK could have developed, approved, and rolled out the vaccines more quickly even if still subject to the EU?s rules. But it is surely no coincidence that ?Brexit Britain? was the only country to go its own way.

ADVERTISING

The EU?s vaccine failures and the Commission's over-reach also illustrate many of the fundamental weaknesses of the bloc; the difficulty of coordinating policies and funding across so many nations (the EU?s larger size has counted for nothing), excessive and inefficient bureaucracy, and an overly-cautious approach to regulation.

The divergence between the UK and the EU on the vaccine rollout and lockdowns is already having a marked impact on the outlooks for their respective economies. For example, both the OECD and IMF have recently revised up their forecasts for global and UK growth, while barely changing their numbers for the euro area.

The many ways in which the Commission and national governments have escalated contract disputes, threatened to block exports ? and even raided factories ? is also likely to do lasting damage to the attractiveness of the EU as a place to invest and run a business.

Obviously, it is not all ?bright sunlit uplands?. Many UK companies ? especially smaller enterprises and individuals ? are still struggling with the increases in barriers to trade between the UK and the EU. The additional checks between Northern Ireland and mainland Britain are clearly one of several factors behind the renewed unrest in Belfast too.

Advertisement

ADVERTISING

But recent surveys at least provide some reassurance about the impact on the UK economy as a whole. In particular, the latest Deloitte poll of CFOs shows that concerns about Brexit have dropped sharply down the risk list, having been top for long periods since 2016. Indeed, ?deflation and economic weakness in the euro area and the possibility of a renewed euro crisis? is now seen as bigger risk.

The Deloitte survey also suggested that most (mainly larger) businesses have faced only mild or no Brexit disruption. Just under 10 per cent of CFOs have experienced ?significant? or ?severe? problems, but this proportion is expected to drop to 3 per cent in a year?s time.

Some other surveys are more pessimistic. One by EY and London First found three-quarters of respondents faced some degree of disruption following the end of the transition period, and half of those expect it to continue over the long term.

This may be more representative of the experiences of smaller companies. However, the EY/London First polling was conducted earlier (16-22 February, compared to 17-29 March for the Deloitte survey), and so may not be as up to date.

Advertisement

In the meantime, the latest data on international trade, published today by the Office for National Statistics, are reassuring. They showed a decent rebound in UK exports to the EU (up 47 per cent) between January and February, after the rocky start at the end of the transition period. Exports (both to the EU and the rest of the world) were still lower than the pre-Covid levels a year earlier, but this measure should turn positive from March.

Preliminary estimates from French customs are already signalling a further improvement. According to the French, ?trade in goods between France and the UK, both exports and imports, has been rising steadily since January and by March was close to normal, allowing for the persistence of the economic consequences of the pandemic?.

In short, sentiment towards Brexit has already taken a sharp turn for the better. A relatively strong economic recovery in the UK and the quick bounce back in trade with the EU can only help.

[Seabag]

Poster boy

[malumbu]

Too soon to judge. Our economy will adapt. And eventually even I will tire of saying was a stupid thing to do. It will continue to divide our nation for years to come. It certainly has contributed to a move towards nationalism/national interest, populism and xenophobia. And on the divided nation in my darkest moments I see both Scotland and Northern Ireland going, the power base remaining in the SE (are we really going to become a major manufacturing nation once more?) and the North being a continued drain on resources. So 'remainer' London, with a Labour majority (whatever Labour stand for nowadays), will continue to be key to the economy.

[TheCat]

There are obviously still outstanding issues with regards to northern Irish situation, and potential for broader breakup of the UK...and I personally would prefer to wait a little longer before declaring brexit a 'macroeconomic non-event'....but an interesting take on the macro economic impact of brexit...

https://www.eurointelligence.com/column/brexit-revisited

He also seems to agree with what I've been saying for years, that the success or otherwise is not written in stone because of brexit itself. But will be determined by the policy and regulatory decisions taken by governments over the next 5-10 years...as to whether some of the regular flexibility and 'nimbleness' can translate into tangible economic benefit.

A snippet if you can't be bothered reading the whole thing....

"I am not making the argument that Brexit will be an economic success. I don't think it will. The best economic argument against Brexit is the one that was never made: that a UK government under either Labour or the Conservatives is unlikely to make best out of the opportunities for regulatory divergence.

The forecasts of unmitigated gloom, however, have been wrong and deceitful. When economists failed to predict the global financial crisis, they did not so out of malice or political bias. But their Brexit forecasts were not an innocent mistake - nor will they be remembered as such"

[snowy]

Hes not very good at percentages is he?

He says ?UK exports have fully recovered? and yet presents percentage statistics that show they have fallen 15%.

[TheCat]

Ha...yep...I think I would have used words like'partially' or 'largely', rather than 'fully'....

[diable rouge]

An analysis of the numbers that doesn't merit a D- in mathematics... https://institute.global/policy/project-fear-or-project-fact-how-eu-trade-has-fared-months-following-single-market-exit

Leaving aside the arithmetically challenged, you'll find over the coming months/years that advocates of Brexit will promote a lot of 'UK versus EU' data as some sort of justification, but the reality is that the EU as a whole wasn't and never will be our main economic competitor, rather it has always been about how we perform against our traditional economic rivals like Germany and France. That's the true test of Brexit, it's how we compare against them not the the whole 27 states that matters, just as it did when we were in the EU. And when you look at the actual market share of how the UK and Germany have performed since Brexit, it paints a very different picture than the one they want you to see...

[j.a.]

TheCat Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

>

>

> "The forecasts of unmitigated gloom, however, have

> been wrong and deceitful. When economists failed

> to predict the global financial crisis, they did

> not so out of malice or political bias. But their

> Brexit forecasts were not an innocent mistake -

> nor will they be remembered as such"

While I would say most of that post is reasonable, this paragraph is frankly bunk.

Given how much of the Leave argument was predicated on the economic benefit, I feel this is very much the pot calling the kettle black, to say nothing of someone who thinks the 2008 crash was not the result of malice or political bias. Pur-leeeeeasse beeyatch...

Neither side acquitted itself beyond reproach during the campaign, and one of Leave?s clear proclamations was how much better off our economy would be and they wouldn?t hear any dispute on the matter.

If you want to use the words ?wrong and deceitful?, we?ll be here until next week. There?s quite a lot of it going around.

[TheCat]

I don't think its entirely crazy to use the word 'wrong' when characterizing some of the apocalyptic projections/commentary made by some remain supporters at the time of the referendum and in the year's subsequent. 3 months in, there's an impact, no doubt, but surely you can agree nowhere near as bad as some of the more hysterical outriders were suggesting?

'Deceitful'....well that all depends on ones perspective I suppose. Were either of the claims that we would require an "Emergency Budget" where public services would be slashed and taxes would be raised immediately after a leave vote was returned, or the claim that every household would be would be ?4,300pa worse off meaningfully less 'deceitful' than "?350m for the NHS"??...all three statements were inaccurate/misleading/based on cherry picked data, but it seems most people's concern with any of them is largely governed by the way they voted....

[diable rouge]

''Were either of the claims that we would require an "Emergency Budget" where public services would be slashed and taxes would be raised immediately after a leave vote was returned or the claim that every household would be would be ?4,300pa worse off meaningfully less 'deceitful' than "?350m for the NHS"??''

Didn't the Tresury forecast came with two caveats, namely it was based on A50 immediately being triggered after the vote, and that the BoE wouldn't intervene fiscally, neither of which happened, rendering forecast null and void?

Also, wasn't the ?4300 figure based on this...

The analysis finds that the annual loss of GDP per household after 15 years under the three proposed models for an alternative to EU membership would be as follows:

?2,600 in the case of EEA membership

?4,300 in the case of a negotiated bilateral agreement

?5,200 in the case of WTO membership

Meanwhile, has anyone seen the Brexit bus lately?...

[Seabag]

A lot of scree for an obvious wankfest of an event.

We

Are

Worse

Of

because

Of

Brexit

End

[TheCat]

?If the British people vote to leave, there is only one way to bring that about, namely to trigger article 50 of the treaties and begin the process of exit, and the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away.?

? David Cameron addressing parliament in February 2016

Deceitful or not?

[zerkalo]

Some might find this interesting:

COMFORTABLE LEAVERS: THE EXPECTATIONS AND HOPES OF THE OVERLOOKED BREXIT VOTERS

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Comfortable-Leavers-1.pdf

NB. The UK in a Changing Europe promotes rigorous,

high‑quality and independent research into

the complex and ever changing relationship

between the UK and the EU. It is funded by the

Economic and Social Research Council and based

at King?s College London.

[diable rouge]

snowy Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Hes not very good at percentages is he?

>

> He says ?UK exports have fully recovered? and yet

> presents percentage statistics that show they have

> fallen 15%.

A week later and a Tory MP is still peddling this rubbish...