Sunlit uplands. Are we there yet?

[Sephiroth]

amazing after the shitshow of the last few weeks, from mediocre GOP, awful CBI speech, forecasts of permanent 4% hit t UK economy directly due to Brexit, horrendous treatment of refugees and tone deaf reactions to France and Ireland, Catty resurrects this thread with juvenile Spectator-lite garbage

still jam tomorrow

Even Fraser Nelson in Telegraph is (badly) wondering if Brexit wasn't so smart after all

[diable rouge]

500...

[TheCat]

Sephiroth Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> amazing after the shitshow of the last few weeks,

> from mediocre GOP, awful CBI speech, forecasts of

> permanent 4% hit t UK economy directly due to

> Brexit, horrendous treatment of refugees and tone

> deaf reactions to France and Ireland, Catty

> resurrects this thread with juvenile

> Spectator-lite garbage

>

> still jam tomorrow

>

> Even Fraser Nelson in Telegraph is (badly)

> wondering if Brexit wasn't so smart after all

You do make me laugh.

You spent months earlier this year regularly posting anti-brexit soundbites on here when no one else was replying/engaging

But 'Catty' does the same and it's juvenile.

What's juvenile is mocking the idea that it takes years for an economy to adjust to such a seismic change...much more fun to just jump on any bad news as 'evidence' that you were right and others were wrong.....

Anyway...perhaps take a leaf out of DogKennelHillBilly's book and actually comment on the issue I raised....

[TheCat]

Dogkennelhillbilly Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Your second sentence explains why the first

> sentence won't happen.

Yep. Fair.

I really don't get the rationale for such a concept, a view which I expect is shared by many.

[diable rouge]

What's juvenile is mocking the idea that it takes years for an economy to adjust to such a seismic change

Except it was never sold as that...

There will be no downside to Brexit, only a considerable upside.

[Sephiroth]

"You spent months earlier this year regularly posting anti-brexit soundbites on here when no one else was replying/engaging

But 'Catty' does the same and it's juvenile.

What's juvenile is mocking the idea that it takes years for an economy to adjust to such a seismic change...much more fun to just jump on any bad news as 'evidence' that you were right and others were wrong.....

"

there is so much wrong with this

I post multiple example of how brexit is a shit idea - because it is

Catty doesn't "do the same" at all. There are no endless posts of Catty (or anyone) going "see this is how brilliant It is"

What you DO post is bad-faith articles or extremely dubious origin and speculative nonsense. Banjaxing a countries economy because someone speculates "see it WILL BE A FEDERATED EUROPE" is not a rational or balanced action

The economy of the UK isn't going to magically "adjust" over a decade or two. Or ever (and as DR points out - that wasn't what was promised. That certainly isn't what 52% voted for even if you did)

The Uk economy will only adjust in a positive way if it stops pretending there are no problems and engages properly with EU countries - as it is we have had nothing but UK blaming EU for everything.

Why can't you admit that the UK economy is more likely to adjust in a negative way? The answer is because your brain won't allow you to admit you done f**ed up. Because you, and the 52%, and this govt, have done exactly that

(the one thing this week that could demonstrate the benefit of UK leaving EU - treating refugees with more care than EU does, is exactly at odds with the main driving force of brexit itself)

[TheCat]

Replying to DR....

As I've said the past few times you've quoted that same line.

Anyone who believed such nonsense truly is misguided.

Do you genuinely believe that the majority of leave voters merrily thought that there would be no downsides/challenges/friction/risks?

But I suppose to be fair, there plenty of remainers who believe there is 'not one good thing about brexit'.....which is equally as misguided as beleiving your quote above.

[TheCat]

Sephiroth Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> "You spent months earlier this year regularly

> posting anti-brexit soundbites on here when no one

> else was replying/engaging

>

> But 'Catty' does the same and it's juvenile.

>

> What's juvenile is mocking the idea that it takes

> years for an economy to adjust to such a seismic

> change...much more fun to just jump on any bad

> news as 'evidence' that you were right and others

> were wrong.....

> "

>

>

> there is so much wrong with this

>

> I post multiple example of how brexit is a shit

> idea - because it is

>

> Catty doesn't "do the same" at all. There are no

> endless posts of Catty (or anyone) going "see this

> is how brilliant It is"

>

> What you DO post is bad-faith articles or

> extremely dubious origin and speculative nonsense.

> Banjaxing a countries economy because someone

> speculates "see it WILL BE A FEDERATED EUROPE" is

> not a rational or balanced action

>

> The economy of the UK isn't going to magically

> "adjust" over a decade or two. Or ever (and as DR

> points out - that wasn't what was promised. That

> certainly isn't what 52% voted for even if you

> did)

>

> The Uk economy will only adjust in a positive way

> if it stops pretending there are no problems and

> engages properly with EU countries - as it is we

> have had nothing but UK blaming EU for everything.

>

>

> Why can't you admit that the UK economy is more

> likely to adjust in a negative way? The answer is

> because your brain won't allow you to admit you

> done f**ed up. Because you, and the 52%, and this

> govt, have done exactly that

>

> (the one thing this week that could demonstrate

> the benefit of UK leaving EU - treating refugees

> with more care than EU does, is exactly at odds

> with the main driving force of brexit itself)

More hilarity.

Allow me to paraphrase...

"I am just a righteous truth teller, but anyone who says something I personally disagree with is juvenile or acting in bad faith'

[Sephiroth]

you paraphrase as badly as you rationalise

no-one is a righteous truth teller for pointing out laws of gravity

People who disagree with laws of gravity aren't just acting in bad faith or someone I disagree with personally - they are just wrong

And the brexit pursued by this country is ignoring economic, geographical and political gravity. This isn't something people can disagree with - it just plain is

"But I suppose to be fair, there plenty of remainers who believe there is 'not one good thing about brexit'.....which is equally as misguided as beleiving your quote above.

it really isn't as EQUALLY misguided - on a balance sheet the pros and negatives are in no way balanced

And as a remainer I did point out a potential benefit of Brexit in my previous post - it's just counter to why brexit happened

As for the other brexit benefits - threads like this have been going for years - and you haven't been able to pinpoint/implement a damn thing. It's all just "someone in Germany said FEDERAL EUROPE!" or "in 10 years Rodney we'll be millionaires"

[TheCat]

Such a massively complicated economic, political and cultural issue with endless different strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities.

But...some random bloke of who posts on a community message board has boiled it down to a binary outcome. Right or wrong.

That's quite a feat given most of anyone's views on brexit (either for or against) are based on assumptions and forecasts of how things will end up (I.e. they haven't happened yet)

Your comparison with 'gravity' is laughable.

[keano77]

Interesting metaphor ?gravity?

There was a time when gravity was understood in terms of Newtonian physics.

Then along came Einstein who gave us a different view of gravity.

Both work within their own paradigms but one sees the bigger picture, if you get my meaning.

[Sephiroth]

"Such a massively complicated economic, political and cultural issue with endless different strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities. "

That wasn't how it was presented in referendum now was it?

"But...some random bloke of who posts on a community message board has boiled it down to a binary outcome. Right or wrong. "

the referendum presented it as a binary choice - with no nuance or going back. not me

But I'm not alone as some random bloke on a local community - 6 years after referendum and with no main political part representing the "this was a shit idea", it's people like me who are in the majority, not you. You will have seen all of the polling just like I have. So - nice try trying to isolate me as some lone outlier

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/

And my comparison with gravity isn't laughable - soz. When I speak of economic, political and geographic gravity those are all things. All ignored by you (and this govt)

It's not like other countries are queuing up to do same is it? That was another leaver forecast - "once other countries see..."

[Sephiroth]

Brexit govt will have to come up with the goods somehow - that will need cash. And given the official LONG term forecast, not easy to see where that money is going to come from

Country is going to just continue to slowly slowly decline

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/oct/28/brexit-worse-for-the-uk-economy-than-covid-pandemic-obr-says

[Sephiroth]

"(the one thing this week that could demonstrate the benefit of UK leaving EU - treating refugees with more care than EU does, is exactly at odds with the main driving force of brexit itself)"

[TheCat]

You can think or believe that its the wrong decision - based on your view the millions of different things that feed into the end result

There are many people who do.

That's very different from what you said above.

One's thoughts on brexit form a view, or set of expectations...brexit is not a 'fact' - like the law of gravity.

[Sephiroth]

brexit promising sunlit uplands but leading to very much shady woods is a fact - like the law of gravity. Trading with nearby countries and the barriers therein compared with half world away? That's a fact - a known fact. Economists talk about it all the time. Just because leavers don't want to acknowledge it doesn't stop it being a fact

anyway - opportunities for the UK outside EU

A more welcoming stance on refugees? yes or no?

Does UK want to lower EU standards or does it want to exceed EU standards?

[diable rouge]

Anyone who believed such nonsense truly is misguided.

You're getting rather good at managing to answer your own questions...

[TheCat]

Sephiroth constantly twisting the focus of the discussion with general 'whataboutery" to avoid ever having to make any concessions on anything. That's a fact too.

[Sephiroth]

"Sephiroth constantly twisting the focus of the discussion with general 'whataboutery" to avoid ever having to make any concessions on anything. That's a fact too."

I'm doing noting of the sort - you said some remainers are denial about any benefits of leaving EU. I'm one of them. But this week has in fact presented a benefit - so I'm merely highlighting this benefit and asking what you and other leavers would like to do with this benefit

Many remainers worried about a lowering of standards without EU oversight - and we were told that was rubbish - UK would look to improve standards

My point is a fair reference to that - I simply don't recognise how I'm whatabouting or twisting anything

I would have thought an enlightened leaver would leap at a chance to agree on a benefit

[Sephiroth]

travel to EU looks fun from next year

key point in the article is how unprepared UK travellers/govt are - so expect much kvetching

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/post-brexit-travel-systems-uk-not-prepared-checks-channel-tunnel

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

Some of that is embarrassing to read e.g. "How can you appeal effectively when the appeal is in another country and you can?t go there?" Well...yeah, that's how visa applications from overseas work!

[TheCat]

It seems that Sally Hamwee has never been to the US or Australia, or the multitude of other countries that aren't in the EU and have for years required completion of an online visa-waiver type process.

While I'm supportive of Brexit, I am under no illusion that it's perfect/all sunlit uplands....and within that context there are other areas where brexit presents actual important risks and challenges that could be raised. So this article just seems like gratuitous moaning, becuase travelling to EU counties will be a 'bit of a faff' compared to what it was previously....

But actually it won't be all that different from how UK citizens have always travelled to countries in the non-EU world for decades....

As an aside...why is it the UK govt responsibility to make sure people are 'prepared' to arrange visas required for travel to a foreign country? Did the UK govt 'prepare' citizens when the US introduce the ESTA system?

[Sephiroth]

Obviously these things exist for further flung countries - but that's the crucial point

People don't visit those countries as regularly in as many numbers - it's baked in and has effectively always been thus

What's happening with countries on our doorstep is that a previously frictionless and free process is now neither of those things. And as well as forms and money, there will be longer queues at passport control. People who go to Europe regularly will both chafe at this and wonder what the quid pro quo is.

so "But actually it won't be all that different from how UK citizens have always travelled to countries in the non-EU world for decades.." is true and yet meaningless. People travel to the EU very differently to how they travel to non EU countries

Why is it govt responsibility to prepare people? On a high minded level, it's because the govt members promised "Exact same benefits" in referendum and as recently as 2019 election promised Brexit would be done - which it has been and many people think it is. New barriers to travel from next year won't be welcome

From a less high minded/govt self preservation perspective - when people get unhappy about something they don't expect they tend to blame the govt, wether it's fair or not

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

TheCat Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

>

>

> As an aside...why is it the UK govt responsibility

> to make sure people are 'prepared' to arrange

> visas required for travel to a foreign country?

> Did the UK govt 'prepare' citizens when the US

> introduce the ESTA system?

To be fair, that part of the article is more sensible (for the reasons discussed in the article). The UK government does have a role in supporting airlines, ferry companies, train operators etc getting space, training and systems ready, and public information campaigns to ensure a hundred thousand unprepared idiots (like me) don't show up empty handed and clog up the ports. The government already does similar stuff around eg health insurance for foreign travel.

Is the UK also applying pre-clearance to EU travellers?

[diable rouge]

The bottom-line is, if you make it harder for people to travel for what was previously a very user-friendly experience, they'll seek alternatives...

Eurovoyages, a French company that sent 11,000 students to the UK in 2019, said less than 100 students would go to UK in 2021.

Verdie Open Class, another French operator, that had 800 school groups in 2019 (36,000 students) has 34 scheduled for 2022. None are confirmed.

Full article here...https://www.ft.com/content/3a903e3f-228e-4ea0-9f26-012af4582196?shareType=nongift