Sunlit uplands. Are we there yet?

[zerkalo]

It's been a few weeks now since the UK-EU trade deal, described as cakeist by our PM, was signed following the glorious departure of the UK from the EU block earlier last year. How have things changed since then for you, if at all? Are there any signs that point towards a brighter future for this country that we were all promised?

Here's a selection of what I've noticed in the press so far:

UK firms told 'set up in EU to avoid trade disruption'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55786974

UK accused of 'petty' behaviour in EU diplomat row

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55753669

Union in crisis as polls reveal voters want referendum on Scottish independence and united Ireland

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/union-in-crisis-as-poll-reveals-voters-want-referendum-on-scottish-independence-and-united-ireland-wwzpdlg7b

On the other hand there are some, dare I say tangible, benefits apparently realised already.

Fish are better and happier now they are British

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/fish-better-rees-mogg-brexit-british-b899228.html

From my personal experience, my package from Germany is still being held at UK customs for over a week now. I fully expect that the courier will demand an additional cost to deliver it.

[Sephiroth]

All good links zerk

But the killer is the food shortages in Northern Ireland, the annihilation of fishing and the massive problem that is haulage constipation/dissipation

Government response? ?Teething problems? which is simply criminal

Labour response? Hire 40k more border staff which is just jaw-droppingly dumb and kinder-garden in its understanding of what is required

Country still is a joke and under a spell. Until it wakes up, this will get worse

[zerkalo]

On the plus side, how could I forget that we are now free to make our own rules! What's not to like?

Brexit: No plans to dilute workers' rights, minister says

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55656593

[TheCat]

The OP could be slightly reworded to the exact same effect for the opposing argument....

It's been a few weeks now since the UK-EU trade deal was signed following the departure of the UK from the EU block earlier last year. How have things changed since then for you, if at all? Are there any signs that point towards the total implosion of life as we know it? Where is the disastrous future for this country that we were all promised?

I could also post a similar facile, cherry-picked set of links with positive commentary on the transition so far...neither means bugger all. Its far too early to claim 'told you so' for either side.

We can also all take the most extreme soundbites from the 'opposing side' as a means of mocking them...you choose 'sunny uplands', how about I choose David Cameron's 2016 claims that Brexit could mean Europe is torn apart by another violent conflict....

So delivery of your package has been delayed in Germany, pleae let me know when can we expect the Messerschmidtt to appear over the skies of London as was promised?

[Sephiroth]

"I could also post a similar facile, cherry-picked set of links with positive commentary on the transition so far..."

You really couldn't. Or you would

you are massively massively underplaying the systemic destruction of the trade system with dramatic impact on jobs, livelihoods and infrastructure and all you have in reply is some facile "well actually"

as per

Reading the many reports of what is actually happening at borders and customs is way worse than "your package is delayed in Germany"

"How have things changed for YOU" is just as bad as "well have YOU died from Covid"

Very Bad Things are happening. And your belittling of them is just grim

[Sephiroth]

"I choose David Cameron's 2016 claims that Brexit could mean Europe is torn apart by another violent conflict." - go on then. Choose that. Post that link

Because I wouldn't be so confident in claiming that it won't lead to problems - be it around NI border issues, or even "fishing" rights. For example

https://www.thenational.scot/news/18939883.no-deal-brexit-uk-threatens-send-gunboats-protect-fishing-waters/

With brexiteers like Kawczynski urging their deployment

I don't see sunlit uplands anywhere - but I do see lots of chaos

[zerkalo]

I highly recommend this podcast about cognitive dissonance to The Cat and everyone else who might be interested in such topics. (disclaimer: it's by a Guardian journalist but the points made are valid across the political spectrum)

https://politics-on-the-couch.zencast.website/episodes/dissonance-theory-why-no-one-says-they-were-wrong

My original question was 'how things have changed for you?' and I provided a personal example. It's often easier to double down on our rhetoric when we hold views that are very important to us rather than admit that the other person has a valid point. If the response was 'sorry mate, Brexit is not perfect, but I think the opportunities are going to be better in general as a whole' I would accept that. For me it might just be the inconvenience of a delayed parcel and an unexpected cost, but for many others their livelihoods are at stake.

[TheCat]

Sephiroth....Is this some sort of internet version of 'go on, then...I dare ya?"

Here's one for you....https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/22/brexit-has-given-competitive-edge-on-car-battery-tariffs-says-nissan-chief

......I guess I really could huh?:)

Seriously though, by focusing on the changes/difficulty in the import/export logsitics...is that really a surprise to anyone? Even all but the most extreme Brexiteers always acknowledged that trade with the EU would not be seamless post Brexit. You're basically moaning about things that most sensible leavers conceded would be a weakness of Brexit, and a particularly important weakness in the first 6-12 months post-transition.

If the economy and trade has not remoulded and adjusted to the shock in time (different things will take different amounts of time, so please dont (again) demand specific answers about how much time...i've said 10 years on another post to another poster to make a proper informed decision if that helps) then that will certainly be something you can store up to use at your 'gotcha' moment. But that time is not yet.

Your doom-mongering tone shows nothing much has changed for you over the past 5 years I guess. But to give you some recent context which might help you to remember that the whole world isnt falling in.....I recall it wasnt long ago that I was being told (by yourself amongst others, if I recall correctly) that the benefits Brexit could bring to the fishing industry were 'irrelevant' in the grand scheme of things, as fishing was only ~0.1% of UK GDP...now all I hear from remainiacs is 'wont SOMEONE think of the FISHERMAN!!....

As I've said many times before, both remain and leave have positives and negatives. Neither outcome is all good or all bad, each one will exhibit certain opportunities and weaknesses that the other does not.

Annyway...I'll post this article here from behind the firewall at the DT, which is written by a remainer, but I think is quite balanced, and within the article, the author has summed up many of the large reasons why I (and others) supported Leave. Nothing to do with 'sunny uplands' or with a shift to immediate frictionless trading logistics outside the EU...but plenty to do with flexibility to tailor domestic policy over the longer term....

Britain's nimble vaccine taskforce puts EU bureaucracy to shame ? and shows how Brexit can succeed

Britain was successful in securing jabs because we could pursue the interests of one country, not 28

JULIET SAMUEL 15 January 2021 ? 8:00pm

Kate Bingham has taken her share of flak. The ex-head of the Vaccine Taskforce has been mocked for hiring a PR consultancy at a ?670,000 cost to the taxpayer. But even accounting for that cost, by making the right bets on the right vaccines and making them early, she and her team have delivered value for money a billion times over.

The question is how. The British state has hardly shown its best side since the start of the pandemic or, indeed, since the Brexit vote. Both Covid and the Brexit negotiations have provided ammunition for those who argue that Britain is no exceptional, great power but an averagely run country whose autonomy won?t change much because cooperation, bureaucratic expertise and scale are what really count in the modern world.

Step forward Ms Bingham. She was asked this week how she had managed to secure supplies of the most promising vaccines so quickly. Her answer: ?We were quick and nimble. We were clearly not the largest buyer. The US and the European Union are much more substantial buyers than the UK, yet we were both the first to secure the contract and the first to deploy.? The venture capitalist also described how she had drawn on her contact book to hire the right people and build relationships with the vaccine front-runners at lightning speed.

In other words, the decision to stay out of the EU?s vaccine procurement programme paid off. The conditions for joining, Ms Bingham explained, had been too arduous, requiring the UK to abandon existing negotiations and forego any independent deals with promising suppliers in future. Politely, she didn?t mention the other ball and chain around the leg of EU vaccine procurement: the catastrophic dilution of public health goals by nationalist industrial policy, which limited the EU?s early engagement with the US-German partnership, Pfizer-BioNTech, and drove it to waste time on the UK-French alternative developed by Sanofi and GSK.

Brexit was not intrinsic to this decision. The UK was invited to join the EU programme despite leaving the EU, and if we had remained, we could still have opted out. But whatever happens with vaccine distribution, the divergent fortunes of the two procurement schemes provide strong evidence in favour of one argument for Brexit: the idea that political coherence, nimbleness and the ability to tailor policy to one set of interests, rather than 28, all matter more than scale.

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This was a difficult debate to have in theory. Critics of Brexit have repeatedly demanded to know what it is ?for?. Some Brexit voters would answer that the point is to deregulate and cut taxes. Others would say it?s to reduce immigration. I contend, however, that most Brexit supporters simply had a general sense we would be able to run our affairs better without moulding our laws around compromises designed to accommodate very different economies and societies. It?s not that Britain is some sort of alien species among European nations, harbouring a desire to go back to coal-mining and colonisation. Our aims are similar to those of other Western countries. It?s just that the particular way we pursue them does, in fact, matter.

This should not be a controversial idea. One theory of Europe?s development from the Renaissance onwards is that it was precisely the competition for talent and technology that drove the continent forwards so quickly, rather than the modern notion that large blocs are beautiful.

The news reported yesterday that the UK may scrap certain EU labour regulations should be viewed in the same light. Predictably, Labour and the country?s rump of Brexit refuseniks claim that this is an assault on workers by swivel-eyed Thatcherites. This seems unlikely. Ministers hardly look like they are spoiling for a fight against the unions and there is little evidence that the EU working time directive directly limits UK activity, since there are few contracts clustered around the thresholds it sets for hours. The rules do, however, impose an arduous administrative burden on employers to record staff hours in a particular way. As with Covid vaccine procurement, it is not about the ends, but the means.

On the other hand, autonomy does have a cost. It is being borne by firms and people who could, until recently, shuttle across our borders with minimal hassle. The transition has gone better than the doom-mongers predicted, but even the Prime Minister admits there are ?teething problems?. A third of trucks arriving in Dublin port from the UK are being held up for having the wrong paperwork, for example, while supermarket shelves in Northern Ireland were temporarily emptied by new checks down the Irish Sea and Scottish fishermen have seen their exports spoil while waiting for customs clearance into Europe.

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These are only the most visible costs of Brexit. Most of the hassle happens outside the ports. It?s hidden in warehouses, where foremen are learning to fill in customs forms; in homes where Britons with houses on the Med are counting up the days they can spend abroad; and in studios, where musicians are grappling with the visa requirements they now have to fulfil to go on tour around Europe. The avoidance of these costs was always the strongest argument for the advantages of scale and the EU single market.

But that argument is not as watertight as its advocates believe. Scale, too, has a cost. It is also hidden, in the small print of state aid rules moulded around German industrial policy, the financial regulation catering to French insurance firms and the priorities pursued in trade talks that favour machine tools over services.

I have no idea whether Ms Bingham was a Remainer, like me, or a Brexiteer. But whether she intended it or not, her work may well end up being the most persuasive test-case for Brexit yet to emerge. The small task force she led has not only given the UK a head-start on vaccines. It has also planted other seeds, encouraging work to replace syringes with oral doses for future pandemics, funding the development of an antibody manufacturing industry and finding new ways to use the UK?s impressive virus genome sequencing capacity.

The British state might have proved its mediocrity in all too many ways over the last year, but this one, crucial project has shown that success isn?t about scale and uniformity. It is about competence and focus. There is no reason why any other policy area, from trade to agriculture and business regulation, cannot prove the same point.

[TheCat]

zerkalo Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I highly recommend this podcast about cognitive

> dissonance to The Cat and everyone else who might

> be interested in such topics. (disclaimer: it's by

> a Guardian journalist but the points made are

> valid across the political spectrum)

>

> https://politics-on-the-couch.zencast.website/epis

> odes/dissonance-theory-why-no-one-says-they-were-w

> rong

>

> My original question was 'how things have changed

> for you?' and I provided a personal example. It's

> often easier to double down on our rhetoric when

> we hold views that are very important to us rather

> than admit that the other person has a valid

> point. If the response was 'sorry mate, Brexit is

> not perfect, but I think the opportunities are

> going to be better in general as a whole' I would

> accept that. For me it might just be the

> inconvenience of a delayed parcel and an

> unexpected cost, but for many others their

> livelihoods are at stake.

Fair enough, reasonable comment; and hopefully my longer comment above gives you a more verbose version of "Sorry Mate, Brexit is not perfect'....

[Sephiroth]

I can't believe Cat has quoted stories about Nissan and securing jabs as his defence

He just isn't a serious person. It's all just some kind of weird game

I stopped replying for a week or so because when I read his comments about Jan 6 in Washington I thought "nah, I'm out"

but here he is talking about a Japanese company, with an 80M bung, with cultural disinclination to rock the political boat, and with no commitment to actual future investment as a genuine counterpart to all of the serious issues going on with haulage at borders. As some kind of Brexit win. "we give 80M to a company and they say nice things about Brexit"

It's... kind of sick

[TheCat]

Seriously Seph. Please go see someone if my comments are winding you up this much.

I dont think im saying anything so extreme as to warrant this sort of reaction. But in anycase you obvioulsy do, and neither me, nor stomaching my brexit arguements (since they clearly affect you so much) are worth your mental health.

Im not even joking or winding you up mate.

[Sephiroth]

It's not YOUR brexit arguments. You just happen to present yourself as some kind of "reasonable" face of an impossible project

At least racists like ([redacted]) have their twisted reasons - but you.. actually.. believe.. in... sunlit.. uplands

You think 10 years of pain is somehow worth it

You have not posted a single thing about the problems at borders

It's not me that needs help

[Seabag]

The Cold light of day has hit my business. I import from Europe, as well as Malaysia and Cuba along with the USA.

Freight from Asia is more problematic now, transportation cost risen. Timings all over the place.

Every planned delivery from Eastern European block, delayed, 50% more expensive, each job man marked to ensure delivery. Notable last minute delays, often a day or two. Which on the face of it doesn?t seem much, only we lay a team off each day it doesn?t turn up. That?s expensive and disruptive.

Goods from France require many more declarations, weights, measurements, certificates from Agricultural Department. None of this ever happened before. Some tiny suppliers struggling to keep up. Greater costs again, delays.

Goods from Spain, our biggest supplier after Malaysia. Delays, uplift in delivering costs, payments upfront to hauliers, loss of terms. Delays to correcting documents, delays to delivery schedules. Nobody wants to deliver to the UK, so we pay for the privilege.

Every turn costs money, my money. Which equals a screw down on labour hours, less work for our team, margins slashed in a very tight market.

That?s our Brexit reality. The thought that people voted for this as some kind of gleefully smug social experiment, letting long time business?s like mine be used as some kind of ?adjustment tool? for their ideas, is perverse.

Maybe if you?ve a safe buffer job, where you can read about the effects but not honestly feel them, then great for you.

Brexit is a shit expensive experiment, using real people as lab rats.

Teething problems. I?d happily kick anyone straight in the teeth saying that, then tell them ?teething problems?

[Seabag]

Oh and we?re having to explore setting up an office in Europe to get around much of the toxic UK business atmosphere.

[Sephiroth]

Seabag

I'm reading this everywhere and feel for you. Clearly it's an unsustainable situation and UK will have to realign on some level with EU to avoid collapse. I wish either the govt or the opposition weren't so afraid of stating the bleeding obvious

(you could always take Cat's advice and seek help? or maybe file it under "So delivery of your package has been delayed in Germany, pleae let me know when can we expect the Messerschmidtt to appear over the skies of London as was promised?")

[Sephiroth]

"Oh and we?re having to explore setting up an office in Europe to get around much of the toxic UK business atmosphere."

to be fair that is now official uk govt advice. Take your tax revenue and jobs from the Uk and move them to the EU

Perhaps that is sunlit uplands for UK but I can't see how

[j.a.]

I think it?s fair to say TheCat is insulated from the adjustment shocks that Brexit has so far produced, and insofar as that?s true he?s able to step back and see the ?big picture?, and only time will tell if it turns out to be accurate; certainly I hope these are just teething problems, though I think their more akin to having wisdom teeth yanked without anaesthetic and not a vague promise of painkillers and antibiotics afterwards. It?s very easy to be as sanguine as he is when you don?t currently have skin in the game, and I hope he recognises that.

Certainly the vaccine roll-out has been superb so far and it turns out Kate Bingham was up to the job. However I don?t think anyone could be criticised for thinking this was another story crony appointment; certainly Dido Harding and others could take lessons because T+T has been an unmitigated F-up and the amount we spent on PPE last year was criminal.

Perhaps the vaccine is an example of things are going to be. I hope so. It?s what we were promised. But already we?ve got Brexiters reverting to blaming the EU for things we knew would happen (see Lance Forman) and govt blaming the fishing community for not filling out forms properly when it was Boris and Frost who openly sold them out.

It hasn?t started as badly as it could?ve, but let?s not pretend it?s gone as well as was promised. Let?s hope these problems will get solved quickly. But it?s already starting to look like we went for a barebones thin gruel of a meal-deal just to get it over the line and claim victory. Not the greatest of starts, and as I say, very easy for those not exposed to the problems to claim it?s no big deal.

It?s a huge deal for people watching their business crumble in front of them.

[KidKruger]

?No pain, no gain...etc..? 🙄

[Sephiroth]

Genuinely, as a prominent supporter of Brexit I would be interested in his actual take on what is happening at the border, at what his happening to business like seabag's

These are big issues - and us worriers could do with some insight as to the bigger picture and what the upsides are which address these ACTUAL real-life issues

(in the meantime I guess I will have to make do with comments about my mental health, Nissan's relative comfort with not having to commit to any new infrastructure thanks to a hefty bung, and a general hand-wavy approach to border chaos)

[TheCat]

Sephiroth Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> It's not YOUR brexit arguments. You just happen to

> present yourself as some kind of "reasonable" face

> of an impossible project

>

> At least racists like () have their twisted

> reasons - but you.. actually.. believe.. in...

> sunlit.. uplands

>

Blimey Sephiroth. Now even 'the racists' are better than people trying to be reasonable'.

Honestly, take a step back. Take a breath. And have a think about what you're saying.

[Sephiroth]

" At least racists like () have their twisted

> reasons - but you.. actually.. believe.. in...

> sunlit.. uplands "

does not equal

" 'the racists' are better than people trying to be reasonable'. "

It means racists are honest with themselves

Dressing yourself in the robes of "reasonableness" does not make you reasonable - it's entirely in your own head

[Sephiroth]

For clarity - until you reckon with the genuine and dramatic problems caused by Brexit - you have no case to be called "reasonable"

You try and equate the OP list of problems with "Well Nissan say this and We are ahead in jabs" as if they carry equal weight

They do not

When you start dealing with actuality then you can talk about you being "the voice of reason"

Until then, maybe dial back the reference to other people's mental wellbeing, eh?

[TheCat]

j.a. Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I think it?s fair to say TheCat is insulated from

> the adjustment shocks that Brexit has so far

> produced, and insofar as that?s true he?s able to

> step back and see the ?big picture?, and only time

> will tell if it turns out to be accurate;

> certainly I hope these are just teething problems,

> though I think their more akin to having wisdom

> teeth yanked without anaesthetic and not a vague

> promise of painkillers and antibiotics afterwards.

> It?s very easy to be as sanguine as he is when you

> don?t currently have skin in the game, and I hope

> he recognises that.

>

> Certainly the vaccine roll-out has been superb so

> far and it turns out Kate Bingham was up to the

> job. However I don?t think anyone could be

> criticised for thinking this was another story

> crony appointment; certainly Dido Harding and

> others could take lessons because T+T has been an

> unmitigated F-up and the amount we spent on PPE

> last year was criminal.

>

> Perhaps the vaccine is an example of things are

> going to be. I hope so. It?s what we were

> promised. But already we?ve got Brexiters

> reverting to blaming the EU for things we knew

> would happen (see Lance Forman) and govt blaming

> the fishing community for not filling out forms

> properly when it was Boris and Frost who openly

> sold them out.

>

> It hasn?t started as badly as it could?ve, but

> let?s not pretend it?s gone as well as was

> promised. Let?s hope these problems will get

> solved quickly. But it?s already starting to look

> like we went for a barebones thin gruel of a

> meal-deal just to get it over the line and claim

> victory. Not the greatest of starts, and as I say,

> very easy for those not exposed to the problems to

> claim it?s no big deal.

>

> It?s a huge deal for people watching their

> business crumble in front of them.

I don't agree with everything here, but overall I think thats a reasonable comment J.a...and one that at least suggests that some reasonable discussion may be possible.

Of course I'm sympathetic to business owners (like seabag) who are at the pointy end of transition. And to those who casually view any support for brexit as callous dismissal of these types of businesses, I don't feel is accurate. I truly hope that some of the issue encountered over 3 weeks resolve themselves to an acceptable degree.

But also, everyone needs to grow up a little - every major decision that affects the economy will have relative winners and relative losers....no matter what had happened in 2016, there would always be some portion of the economy we could point to as suffering more than others.

I know that is cold comfort, for those going through this disruption in the near term...but perhaps in 6 months when domestic demand is far exceeding consumption in Europe (which is still locked-down as vaccinations lag), we might be talking about different relative winners and receive losers....and some who are feeling the pinch now, might be feeling benefits then and vice versa....

[Seabag]

Are the government (or you for that matter) going to give me close to the pointy end of 500k and rising, for the ill planned experiment I?m living on their and your behalf?

I very much doubt it.

[zerkalo]

This is another real life example of the devastating impact Brexit has already had to many businesses just like Seabag's. I can only hope that politicians will be held accountable one day for all their lies that paved the way to this calamity.