Sir Kier..the shifty ex-husband.....?

[KidKruger]

A week or so ago, when we had a new daily high of (I think it was) 1,560 I did some basic calcs extrapolating the figure by remaining days to Xmas (345) plus the then total of deaths. From memory it was near 600k. I then reduced to a 1000 per day level and extrapolated that - it was like 480k.

Again, I?m going by memory and it was a throwaway at the time, just to work up an impression of potential nos, so I can?t remember the detail - just the sense of the big figures.

I hope I?m grossly wrong, believe me.

Factors I considered were Govt control and track record (poor), population behaviour overall (poor), population attitude overall (poor), likely take-up of vaccine, trust in the Govt in certain sectors of the population, border controls to date (poor), borders controls likely going forward (poor I predict), new variances that cause either increased infections or higher mortality, and finally a (perhaps negative) viewpoint that little will change before Xmas with regard to my list of reasons.

I?m no statistician and it?s my take on it I concede, but that?s my prediction.

Like I say, I hope I?m wrong and my prediction can be shot to bits all the way up to Xmas - please do !

Luckily/unfortunately, we?ll get a chance to validate the prediction one way or the other in December.

The wronger I am, the happier I?ll be (assuming the actual figure is lower than my prediction !).

I?m happy to take hits for what I didn?t consider or have overlooked, and I may be informed by other info and refresh my view before then - IF I see something useful to consider.

By the way I?m an optimist, though it may not sound like it !

TheCat Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> KidKruger Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > ...and perhaps that?s why BoJo avoids Kier?s

> > questions. We?re heading for 400-500,000 deaths

> by

> > Xmas IMO, and Kier?s suggestions to date (if

> acted

> > upon) would have significantly reduced that.

>

> Slightly off topic...but you believe that we will

> average well over 1000 deaths a day for the whole

> year? That seems pretty out there...not saying

> it's wrong, but definitely a "ballsy forecast

> KK....

[Blah Blah]

The problem is that everything was wrong from the off. Taiwan had suffered from the first SARS outbreak in 2003 and they learned the lesson. As soon as an outbreak was known about in China, they closed their borders, put into action the localised track and trace they had already the infrastructure in place for and EVERYONE had to wear masks with no exemptions. The result is that Taiwan has never locked down and only has 7 deaths so far. They have a population that is around one third of the UK's, so not insignificant.

The west however, never took a pandemic as any kind as a real serious threat, and while her economies are on a roller coaster, Asia is functioning pretty much as before. Boris had no excuse. We had more time than anyone to see what was coming. Trump had even more time. There is no way of excusing the government on the slow responses. Starmer has been consistent on calling for those responses sooner. Things absolutely would have been different under Labour. They would have given the role of track and track to local public health bodies for a start, and not wasted tens of millions on their mates business enterprises.

[Hamletter]

This thread has deviated from the OP and the usual suspects have predictably slipped in to their usual groove of Boris bashing. I agree with the pussy in that SKS just flip-flops without articulating a clear strategy. He reacts rather than leads and does do without any style or charisma.

OK, the leader of the Opposition is there to challenge the Govt of the day but real credibility arises from having conviction and a clear strategy not continual whining and negativity. Passion and delivery he needs to brush up on.

[Seabag]

Spartacus Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> KidKruger Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > ...and perhaps that?s why BoJo avoids Kier?s

> > questions. We?re heading for 400-500,000 deaths

> by

> > Xmas IMO, and Kier?s suggestions to date (if

> acted

> > upon) would have significantly reduced that.

>

> Interesting kid

>

> If the suggestions had been acted in at the time,

> the curve May have had a different shape but there

> is a question over would we have then unlocked

> earlier and infections rose again.

> One suggestion was a "firebreak" like Wales did,

> but after they came out numbers went up

> significantly.

>

> I'm not convinced that acting differently would

> have a major effect on overall numbers, but the

> timeframe potentially would be different

> The only course of action would have been total

> lock down, close borders to everyone from fay one

> and act like Singapore / China but as everyone

> advocated still being able to trade with Europe /

> rest of the world that wouldn't have been

> practical and no one would tolerate a 12 month

> total removal of the right to go out if their

> houses and the economy would have tanked beyond

> recovery.

>

> Would be interesting to model the scenarios and

> see what the result would be.

Garbled nonsense, what are you on about please?

[Seabag]

TheCat Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Seabag Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > I?ve thought this for a while, that you work

> for

> > the Tory Party

> >

> > The Brexit thing, now attacking the opposition.

>

> Is this directed at me?

Your op yes.

Smells like Tory party media team stuff

[TheCat]

HAHAHA.....Oh my giddy aunt. I truly hope you're taking the Michael.

I'd have to be the worst media office employee in the world, given some of the things I've said about the Tories on this forum. Even on this thread, I've said they were flailing, lack transparency and show incompetence. But I guess that could all be a ruse to throw you off the scent....that's how cunning us Tory press officer can be...almost as cunning as the foxes I make it my life's passion to hunt and murder legally....

You must truly live in the echoiest of echo chambers, if you see the fact that I argue the case for Leave, and now 'attack' the opposition as an indication that I must work for the Tories.

Absolutley priceless. That'll do me.

[KidKruger]

Sounds like a ?No?, TheCat ?!!

🤣

[diable rouge]

The Tory doth protest too much...:)

[Spartacus]

Blimey boyz

You lot obviously need a hobby or something as you've been so active on here on a Saturday night.

Maybe you're missing the pub, or something to do with your hands 😱

How about getting yourselves some needles and try making the attached trendy items

[Seabag]

There you go

My thoughts exactly

[Seabag]

diable rouge Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> The Tory doth protest too much...:)

There you go

My thoughts exactly

[TheCat]

Well, I guess thinking that makes it easier for you to dismiss comments you don't like, rather than accept that a regular member of the public might hold views different from you (and all your echo chamber mates), or even (heaven forbid) give you cause to question any aspects of your own position...but anyway.... whatever helps you get through the day big guy....

[TheCat]

Spartacus Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Blimey boyz

>

> You lot obviously need a hobby or something as

> you've been so active on here on a Saturday night.

>

>

> Maybe you're missing the pub, or something to do

> with your hands 😱

>

> How about getting yourselves some needles and try

> making the attached trendy items

Actually, you know Spartacus....I've thought for a while that you must be a member of the Meat Packers Union....

First the "I dont get it" Vegan thread, and now mitten designs that could easily be used for abattoir work...

[fishbiscuits]

I don't dislike Kier, but he has failed to impress IMO. He basically seems (and is maybe happy to portray himself) as a moderate, pragmatic, safe pair of hands. Perhaps that's what we need. But I'm not seeing much vision or passion. What does he really stand for? I want to see some inspiration and energy coming from him well before the runup to the next election.

[fishbiscuits]

KidKruger Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> A week or so ago, when we had a new daily high of

> (I think it was) 1,560 I did some basic calcs

> extrapolating the figure by remaining days to Xmas

> (345) plus the then total of deaths. From memory

> it was near 600k. I then reduced to a 1000 per day

> level and extrapolated that - it was like 480k.

I'm not optimsitic... but I'm less pessimistic than you. Vaccinations are happening. Around 10% of the population has had a first dose. Assuming a) we can keep this rate up, b) second vaccinations at the longer interval are still effective, c) manufacturers can tweak the formulas and push them through with accelerated testing.. I am hopeful that the UK will be in a good place later this year. Albeit with a few more painful months to come.

[Spartacus]

TheCat Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Spartacus Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Blimey boyz

> >

> > You lot obviously need a hobby or something as

> > you've been so active on here on a Saturday

> night.

> >

> >

> > Maybe you're missing the pub, or something to

> do

> > with your hands 😱

> >

> > How about getting yourselves some needles and

> try

> > making the attached trendy items

>

> Actually, you know Spartacus....I've thought for a

> while that you must be a member of the Meat

> Packers Union....

>

> First the "I dont get it" Vegan thread, and now

> mitten designs that could easily be used for

> abattoir work...

Seabag ?

Is that you playing both sides of the fence or is The Cat just echoing you ?

Busted especially as the mittens are what gives me a feeling of Meat Euphoria

[TheCat]

I guess Guardian columnist, John Harris, must work for the Tory party too it seems....

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/24/history-labour-keir-starmer-boris-johnson

(Okay...I'll drop it now....;))

[Seabag]

TheCat Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I guess Guardian columnist, John Harris, must work

> for the Tory party too it seems....

>

> https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan

> /24/history-labour-keir-starmer-boris-johnson

>

>

> (Okay...I'll drop it now....;))

Classic manoeuvre to fill the void with scree

We know, they know, you know.

[TheCat]

You're the one talking garbled nonsense now Seabag.

I'm not sure what it is that you think you know?

[TheCat]

So....I started this thread 2 months ago, and copped a fairly 'robust' response from various posters (culminating with me being accused of working for the Tory media team!!....which still gives me a chuckle)...

I wonder now, with two further months haviong passed of Sir Kier's leadership, Labour sinking in the polls (yes, vaccine bounce for the govt, but it would be foolish to dismiss it as all due to that), and even the Graun increasingly writing about Sir Kier's ineffectiveness....whether the EDF mood music for Sir Kier has changed at all?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/29/keir-starmer-year-labour-poll-ratings

[diable rouge]

A better time to ask that question will be after the May elections...

[Blah Blah]

Kier is in a difficult place, trying to figure out how to win the next election following a defeat that makes little sense to core Labour values. It is also hard to be an opposition when most of the parliamentary business is centered around a pandemic response. We will start to see Labour bite when efforts to repay the debt come into play but on other issues, like crime and policing, and the coming immigration bill, there is going to be a dilemma, and especially with the latter, in that having been a major issue in the Brexit debate.

Even Brexit will continue to be a problem. There are many people now who regret voting leave, as they find themselves impacted by the changes in trading status, impacts they were told would not happen (sunlit uplands and all that). So where does Labour go on that? Do they as a party mirror the tories for fear of not being able to regain those red wall seats? Or do they go all out to scoop up regretful leavers? Will that even be enough to swing things their way next time? The SNP have Scotland pretty much sewn up and Labour has never won an election without those Scottish seats.

Blair was the viable alternative to Thatcher for many reasons. Kier I think, understands that the British electorate doesn't swing left then right then left. It always comes back to the center ground when it finally rejects steps out to the right or left. Before Kier can even begin to model that kind of manifesto though, he has to navigate a factional membership. Regaining control of the NEC, is by far the most important area of power, but controlling CLP pushed motions at conference etc is another battle altogether.

[Seabag]

TheCat Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> So....I started this thread 2 months ago, and

> copped a fairly 'robust' response from various

> posters (culminating with me being accused of

> working for the Tory media team!!....which still

> gives me a chuckle)...

>

> I wonder now, with two further months haviong

> passed of Sir Kier's leadership, Labour sinking in

> the polls (yes, vaccine bounce for the govt, but

> it would be foolish to dismiss it as all due to

> that), and even the Graun increasingly writing

> about Sir Kier's ineffectiveness....whether the

> EDF mood music for Sir Kier has changed at all?

>

> https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar

> /29/keir-starmer-year-labour-poll-ratings

There?s a political level, like a limbo pole under which Boris squeezes, like an awkward fat white bloke at Carnival. Even if Sir K is currently flopping, not even limboing under the metaphorical pole, it doesn?t actually correlate that Boris is doing any better, just the music is louder and people clap with a fixed grin as he takes his go again. Carnival is carnival, let?s see how he fares after the music stops at the next election, and it?s time to see the mess for what it is.

[malumbu]

There is a bigger debate on why the PM is retaining his popularity - his lack of integrity, lack of leadership, lack of talent and the narrowness of the cabinet, reliance on dodgy advisors, moral standards, over-promising as we will find out on the current road map out of lockdown, and high and avoidable Covid-19 death rate.

This surely can't be all down to Corbyn, getting Brexit (badly) done, and the current state of the Labour Party. His chummy, jolly, likeable rogue/idiot persona surely can't buy him that many voters, can it.....?

[Sue]

malumbu Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> There is a bigger debate on why the PM is

> retaining his popularity - his lack of integrity,

> lack of leadership, lack of talent and the

> narrowness of the cabinet, reliance on dodgy

> advisors, moral standards, over-promising as we

> will find out on the current road map out of

> lockdown, and high and avoidable Covid-19 death

> rate.

>

> This surely can't be all down to Corbyn, getting

> Brexit (badly) done, and the current state of the

> Labour Party. His chummy, jolly, likeable

> rogue/idiot persona surely can't buy him that many

> voters, can it.....?

I would suspect that yes, it can.

Look at Trump and his supporters (if you can bear to).