Has ED started to decline?

[dulwichtoo]

If ED crashes then the rest of the country will be in a very big chill (which might just be true) behind the scenes there is little or zero growth and massive monetary policy keeping the ship afloat - and a lot of the world thank goodness seeing London as a safe haven.

[richard tudor]

Quote

If ED crashes then the rest of the country will be in a very big chill (which might just be true) behind the scenes there is little or zero growth and massive monetary policy keeping the ship afloat - and a lot of the world thank goodness seeing London as a safe haven

Never knew that ED cash flow supported the rest of the Country. Maybe it is more important than I thought

[James]

I see no sign whatsoever that ED is about to crash. The latest casualties are the last in a long line of comings and goings. And more to do with rising rents (caused by the ongoing gentrification of the area) than anything else.

[dulwichtoo]

The London Boom is part of us holding on nationally - if this stalls or falters then the UK is in a worse state than most realise and thats with effectively negative interest rates and funny money - things are pretty bad out in the provinces. ED is benefiting from this London boom - so that the overpriced skinny lattes and organic knitted wholemeal toffee crunches can continue to thrive in our much lauded independent shops.

[DulwichFox]

Last 2-3 Months.. Just a few things from EDF.. Just some of the things we are aware of..

Dog poo on my doorstep

Strange bottles full of orange liquid

The Mag on LL Closing ??

New Management "The Cherry Tree"

Green & Blue closing

Grace and Favour is closing!

Come & say cheerio this week before we close! Hoopers(Surrounding Area)

William Rose on East Dulwich Grove closed

Lordship Lane Police Station closing?

Burglaries in Barry Road

Pile of Junk on East Dulwich Grove

smashed windscreen,friern rd

cannabis farm found

Vespa stolen from Barry Road

Theft from a car on Abbotswood Road

Motorbike stolen on Fellbrigg Road

Gun shots and police east dulwich road

attempted break in (Tarbert Road - 26 Oct 2012)

Repeated Bycycle Thefts on Heber Road

Stolen Ford Transit Luton Van

Phone stolen in The Plough

The Area is Not in decline

It is a wonderful place to live

Fox

[LondonMix]

Have you looked at the crime statistics? Those are actually down. The fact people are whinging (more) doesn't mean that things are deteriorating...

Also, issues with cleaning relates to budget cuts (as has already been discussed on the EDF) and is not specifically related to ED.

[DulwichFox]

Yes.. Crime is so low.. They are able to close the Police Station because

the Officers there have absolutely nothing to do..

Rose tints my world

And keeps me safe from my trouble and pain

Fox

[Catalyst]

Looking at other middle class baby farms around London (Stoke Newington, Clapham, Wandsworth) I just see ED falling behind. It aspires to play in that league but has neither the footfall nor the wealth to maintain it.

Maybe Green & Blue will make way for another charity shop on LL.

[richard tudor]

You only report crime these days to get a cad number for the insurance. Most ordinary people know all the police do is send a letter offering councilling.

That is why the crime figures are down

[DulwichFox]

There is UK wide recession.

Europe Wide recession.

Global Recession.

Yet people seem to think E.D. is exempt...

We have seen great Empires collapse...

Ottoman Empire / Greek Empire / Roman Empire / many others...

Now the American Empire is crumbling due to Global Financial Collapse..

We are just part of The American Empire..

Even E.D.

Fox

[LondonMix]

??? So you aren't asking if ED is in decline but if Western countries are in decline and therefore ED as part of the West is declining... That people are asserting people aren't reporting crimes defies belief. Look at the burglary stats which are down. Do you really believe people aren't reporting break-ins? Even for insurance purposes? This thread is just so odd.

That some shops won't succeed (like Green and Blue) is just how business goes. Running a business is a risk and there are no guarantees. The closure of any given shop would only be significant if vacancy wsd increasing which its not. The fact that multiple shops (willing to pay higher and higher rents) are opening up, that vacancy is low and that crime stats are down means nothing to people who are convinced emotionally that ED is a disaster. There is no scope for debate when evidence and logic are ignored.

[richard tudor]

You only report crime these days to get a cad number for the insurance.

Of course people report break-ins. Its all the other crime that you do not report because you know nothing will get done.

Car windows smashed, bikes stolen etc etc

ED is ok but it is not the chosen land.

[LondonMix]

Fair enough but you do acknowledge that ED "not being the chosen land" is different from it actually being in decline? I get some people are annoyed that some residents think the area is great and enjoy living here but swinging to the opposite extreme makes no sense.

[richard tudor]

If its gets to look like rye lane it is in decline.

If shops still open it is not however the shops have to be what most people want and not "fads" that fall out of fashion with the limited footfall

[LondonMix]

And you think ED is starting to look like Rye Lane and has declining footfall? Given how busy the shops and restuarants are I can't see how that could be true. Declining footfall would lead to reduced rents rather than rising rents. What are you basing your assertions on?

[richard tudor]

You seem to be in a different world. Read. If it gets to look. I repeat if it gets to look. No one has said it looks like rye lane

Green shops selling water saucers for passing doplhins is limted footfall. Shops have to sell goods people want or they close.

For the moment the goods offered are what people want if they are not wanted footfall will fall rents will fall and a new shop will appear with a better rental lease

Areas will succeed on their own merit not by hyping them up all the time

Perhaps too many people have too much invested.

Ed has always been a pleasant place and after 68 years living here it does not need the hype to survive

[Gimme]

On the positive side, there hasn't been a new estate agent opening on LL for ages and we even got rid of on!

[DulwichFox]

Landlords want rid of the shops. They raise rents to oust shop owners so they can be converted

into flats. Like some Pubs..

How do I know this.

Well I had a shop at 13 Uplands Road in 1993 20 years ago..

It was called Seasonal Supplies. I was paying ?175.00 per week rent + gas, electric, water rates, insurance.. etc.

?175.00 was a lot of money in 1993.

13 Uplands Road was converted to 2 flats in 1994.

I was offered a short lease for ?14,000 but was not prepared to take the risk due to poor sales

being that the shop was isolated and North Cross road was deserted at that time.

So I do know what I am talking about.

Fox.

[karter]

Your Move estate agents have gone from LL and Andrews estates have gone too near the station.

[macrobana]

A few armchairs here.

[LondonMix]

Wow, you're rude and angry! Not sure why I am surpeised. Sorry I didn't pick up on the fact you'd decided to speculate on a non-existent version of Lordship Lane...

richard tudor Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> You seem to be in a different world. Read. If it

> gets to look. I repeat if it gets to look. No one

> has said it looks like rye lane

>

>

> Green shops selling water saucers for passing

> doplhins is limted footfall. Shops have to sell

> goods people want or they close.

>

> For the moment the goods offered are what people

> want if they are not wanted footfall will fall

> rents will fall and a new shop will appear with a

> better rental lease

>

> Areas will succeed on their own merit not by

> hyping them up all the time

>

> Perhaps too many people have too much invested.

>

> Ed has always been a pleasant place and after 68

> years living here it does not need the hype to

> survive

[silverfox]

I am genuinely sorry that Green & Blue is closing. It was a venture that the less brave of us would have liked to try and was truly what I would call an independent (can't understand why they didn't have branded plastic carrier bags though).

However, reality check, ED is not really that cool.

Yes, shops like Moxons, William Rose, Cheese Shop, ED deli, do well - people have to eat and let's face it, it's a tried and tested formula - butcher, baker, candlestick maker. Fair play to Celestial as well, (referenced above) even though I've never darkened their door and was dubious as to how long they'd last.

Facts are we have a very poor selection of restaurants. Franklins is in a league of its own and there are decent Indian (Indian for Brits) restaurants. Where are the Japanese, Lebanese, Vietnamese and so on. Not in Ed.

Where are the designer clothes shops? Jewellers? Art supplies/stationers, art house cinema?

So really, hot and hip ED is not.

What it is is a great place to live with lots of nice people, off the beaten track, unknown by most other people in London and long may it stay like that.

Edited to say I've just noticed this thread has certainly struck a chord with 6,297 posts which implies a number of people are wondering whether it's time to sell up and get out.

[LondonMix]

Fox, I"m sorry things didn't work out for your business and don't doubt some landlords think they would make more money converting retail space to resi use. However, if there was no increase in footfall, the higher rents couldn't be paid and the reality is the landlords are finding new tenants willing to pay the rents and signing leases with them. Vacancy isn't increasing. What you say simply doesn't conform with the current reality.

DulwichFox Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Landlords want rid of the shops. They raise rents

> to oust shop owners so they can be converted

> into flats. Like some Pubs..

>

> How do I know this.

>

> Well I had a shop at 13 Uplands Road in 1993 20

> years ago..

>

> It was called Seasonal Supplies. I was paying

> ?175.00 per week rent + gas, electric, water

> rates, insurance.. etc.

>

> ?175.00 was a lot of money in 1993.

>

> 13 Uplands Road was converted to 2 flats in

> 1994.

>

> I was offered a short lease for ?14,000 but was

> not prepared to take the risk due to poor sales

> being that the shop was isolated and North Cross

> road was deserted at that time.

>

> So I do know what I am talking about.

>

> Fox.

[*Bob*]

silverfox Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Edited to say I've just noticed this thread has

> certainly struck a chord with 6,297 posts which

> implies a number of people are wondering whether

> it's time to sell up and get out.

No, a number of people just enjoying rubbernecking a good potential online bunfight - that's all.

The idea that anyone might consider selling-up because the area has failed to deliver an art-house cinema and a sushi joint is amusing, but quite mad. Nobody moved here for the edgy, authentic dining, glitch beats and asymmetrical haircuts - or the promise of such.

[jrpfinch]

Exactly. Camberwell Green has all that stuff not too far away.