Tighter restrictions/ second national lockdown aka circuit breaker?

[malumbu]

Lots of discussion and speculation particularly since SAGE recommendations were made public. Just been reading a piece in the Spectator on a medic's case against a lockdown, in particular the wider public health harm. Not a source I usually go to but interesting. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/a-medic-s-case-against-another-lockdown Here he says what right to government have to condemn someone to an untimely death due to the wider impact of a lockdown.

My views started off believing some of the arguments that Spain and Italy were very different, and that we should let it run its course. This quickly changed to "why didn't we do this two weeks earlier" and that without the first lockdown we would have totally overburdened our NHS and support services.

Now with things clearly not working where next? There's obviously a backlash from the libertarian right, and the argument about balancing the economy/people's lives.

I'd be interested to hear views of others.

[Blah Blah]

It is all very well someone saying 'what right to government have to condemn someone to an untimely death due to the wider impact of a lockdown' but that is said in complete ignorance of the impact of hospitals filled with covid patients also condemned to untimely deaths - some 40k plus so far. It is not a binary issue and I wish those taking binary positions would remember that.

For example, there are almost 8.8 million people over the age of 70 in the UK. Of those that get covid in that age group, 1 in 20 die. That is before we get into the number of people who need ICU care and recover. If we do not limit the spread of the virus, what do those complaining about restrictions think is going to happen? You can not isolate almost 9 million people from a virus spreading freely.

So there is no question that there have to be efforts to restrict spread of the virus. The difficult part is in knowing how long that approach can be sustained before economics and other factors become more critical. And then we really do get into the terrain of discussions around the value of life. There are of course, lots of differing views on that too.

[diable rouge]

The so-called 'libertarian right' have a strange mindset, on the one hand with Covid they say they want to protect the economy knowing that entails the risk of more people dying, yet they also tend to defend Brexit, including No Deal, and are happy to trash the economy for 'sovereignty'. The LSE recently released an analysis that said No Deal would damage the economy in the long term, 2-3 times worse than Covid...

[uncleglen]

No-one stood a chance....

https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/exclusive-is-there-a-connection-between-luxury-fashion-brands-dirty-secret-and-italys-coronavirus-crisis/

exactly the same reason why Leicester had to go into a lockdown. No-one stands a chance- do you think these people running sweatshops etc care and take ANY precautions...no so all we can do is protect ourselves

[malumbu]

Dear Uncle, rather than look at one element of this can you stick to my original posting? What is your views on national and regional lockdowns, and the arguments presented against this. The Spectator article is food for thought. Please start a thread on sweatshops if you want to focus in on this. Thanks.

[Blah Blah]

The libertarian right stance on Brexit DR is not as out of sync with covid restrictions as you might think. Those people only care about personal profit over regulation. Brexit for them was about removing regulation, like employment rights and food standards.They never actually care if anyone else earns enough or lives. In other words, whether it is EU regulation or a pandemic, how dare any of it get in the way of their ability to make money, and as much of it as possible.

[Sephiroth]

We know some things - infections are rising in many places. So in that sense the government isn't alone

However - since the very beginning, it has tried to DO the least possible, AND weeks later than it should

As we see other parts of the UK trigger circuit breaks it is inevitable that England will do the same at some point - so why not now?

But that takes us to second part of the problem - yes a circuit break would help reduce infections. But that is only useful if you use the time wisely. And we have seen over the summer that apart from spaffing money and seeking surface headlines, this government hasn't used time wisely at all

So I think we will limp along until January. When, whichever way Johnson jumps on Brexit, his party will ditch him and start the ball rolling towards another election

With another government in place we can at least hope for some strategy around the virus and not constant finger-crossing , deaths and economic harm

Of course we may not get an election in which case we will just keep limping on for a lot longer

[JohnL]

"The researchers found that full lockdowns were 'not associated' with decreased mortality from Covid-19"

Obviously but I'm not sure that decreasing mortality (% of those who contract the COVID-19 virus that die) is the aim of a lockdown. A lockdown stops a huge number of people getting very ill at the same time and also buys time.

[malumbu]

Well we are on our way to a lockdown, I expect other parts to also go into cat 2

[heartblock]

The rationale for a lockdown is so our local intensive care units do not fill up with Covid patients. If they do then non-Covid illness, trauma or post-surgical cases will not have access to that high level of medical support. For example, if all ITU beds full and your partner, parent or child has an accident causing trauma that requires intensive care post treatment, they will not have access to a bed and will therefore have an increased risk of a bad outcome. An ITU bed, by the way, isn?t just a ?bed? when we talk about a bed we mean the 2 nurses, the 0.2 WTE medical staff, the 0.2 physiotherapists and the 0.2 Healthcare Scientists required to ?run? a bed for a 24 hr period.

This is also why the Nightingale units were a vanity project... no staff to run the beds at this level, so can never be used as intensive services. They were built as places for people to die with large morgues attached. All of us in the know in the NHS at a senior level know what needs to happen. Test and trace needs to be run by the NHS and local health units/councils not SERCO or Tory donor private companies and lock down would be a breathing space for T and T to be set up properly before the extra Winter pressures. Also there is not enough Flu Vaccine, so we are buggered.

[JohnL]

The wages being paid these management consultants is outrageous - what are they actually doing and how do they change the outcomes ?

[KidKruger]

The charge-out day rates rates charged buy the consultancies being publicised are not the earnings by those individuals doing the work.

[Blah Blah]

Heartblock is spot on. For all those reasons, things are going to get worse, a lot worse, if government dithers too much on efforts to slow spread. Some would argue they have already missed the point at which a significant difference could be made, but it will be on their heads if SAGE advice they ignored, evolves into a crisis that could have been mitigated. My prediction? Boris replaced by the end of January or February, and not by Gove either, but Sunak. There won't be any shift in direction or outcome until that corrupt Tory leadership and their cronies are gone.

[Earl Aelfheah]

@Hearblock - yep, totally agree.

It's been half measures too late, every time. The idea that it's about balancing public health with economic damage is clearly nonsense too- a totally false dichotomy.

Test, trace and isolate is our only way out, but only after we have brought the rate of infection down from where it is now.

Not a good situation right now.

[JohnL]

'Draconian Measures if necessary ' says the Prime Minister

[seenbeen]

JohnL Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> 'Draconian Measures if necessary ' says the Prime

> Minister

That's what it would take. Since day 1 there are lots of people NOT following the rules. Groups of teenagers hiding in the memorial garden of Alleyn's Field groups of teens playing football and close tackling. Loads of teenagers hiding under the large cedars in Greenwich park- it was to avoid being spotted by the helicopters over Blackheath I expect.

There was a large group outside the house near the corner of Townley road during lockdown just all sitting outside on chairs.

Short of doing what other countries have done where the cops have dragged people into their homes I don't know what else Boris could do. He gives out the facts and figures and WE all see the graphs and the deaths etc etc but the vast majority don't watch the briefings and think only over 65s get it so who cares- . I stayed in a B and B in July for 4 nights and there were a group of about 10 men aged from about 40 to 50 and they were all sitting around drinking in one small pool room which was the actual ONLY route out to the bedrooms because of the covid restrictions there....

It was obvious from the start- once they said young people wouldn't die of it, that the oldies were sick and would clog up the NHS- that all the rest had carte blanche to carry on and with all the PAID time on their hands they made the most of it.

We haven't got the enforcement in the UK and the cops are completely impotent given the ridiculous attitude of the civil rights brigade.

Sadiq Khan doesn't even know what's going on in his own city - he demands a lockdown...yeah, and is HE going to enforce it?

[malumbu]

Hooray July 4th independence day. Hooray let's drive up to Barnard Castle. That's when we lost it, or to be fair he lost it. Don't blame it all on the kids.

[seenbeen]

malumbu Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Hooray July 4th independence day. Hooray let's

> drive up to Barnard Castle. That's when we lost

> it, or to be fair he lost it. Don't blame it all

> on the kids.

If you read what I said you will have seen that there is an example of a bunch of blokes between 40 and 50 who didn't care either. And if you are blaming Dominic Cummings then that is stupid because HIS escapade (27th March) was blown out of all proportion by the lefty media twats...what about Tahir Ali- an ACTUAL MP attending 2 funerals on the same day (2nd April) near Birmingham where about 100 people met at one- the comparison is absolute PROOF that the media are completely stupidly biased- you only had to have watched the briefings and see Kuenssberg and that Sky woman Beth Rigby- both of them had contempt for Boris oozing out of their pores....and they both looked like bulldogs chewing wasps and asked stupid questions that had been answered before they even showed themselves.

[diable rouge]

...and breathe

[KidKruger]

To be fair seenbeen, anyone who does not have contempt for Boris must either simply not care about this country and the people in it or be pretty dim.

A proven liar, a proven slacker, a proven morally-bankrupt philanderer, a proven savant of the Tory seniors and captains of industry, a proven lack of substance.

Who filled the cabinet with inexperienced friends as we deal with (or not 'deal' - 'oven ready' anyone ?) departure from Europe and prioritises votes, bluster and ?millions to friends' fake companies over welfare of the people during a pandemic.

?350 million per week to NHS ?

'Oven Ready' deal ?

'world Beating' track and trace ?

SAGE saying if BJ had locked down a couple of weeks earlier than the initial (pretend, because then it was just being called 'restrictions') 'lockdown', we'd have half the deaths.

Yeah, contempt would be a pretty good behaviour for anyone that actually cares about what is going on. This reporters know full well they're interviewing a goon.

[uncleglen]

KidKruger Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> To be fair seenbeen, anyone who does not have

> contempt for Boris must either simply not care

> about this country and the people in it or be

> pretty dim.

> A proven liar, a proven slacker, a proven

> morally-bankrupt philanderer, a proven savant of

> the Tory seniors and captains of industry, a

> proven lack of substance.

> Who filled the cabinet with inexperienced friends

> as we deal with (or not 'deal' - 'oven ready'

> anyone ?) departure from Europe and prioritises

> votes, bluster and ?millions to friends' fake

> companies over welfare of the people during a

> pandemic.

> ?350 million per week to NHS ?

> 'Oven Ready' deal ?

> 'world Beating' track and trace ?

> SAGE saying if BJ had locked down a couple of

> weeks earlier than the initial (pretend, because

> then it was just being called 'restrictions')

> 'lockdown', we'd have half the deaths.

> Yeah, contempt would be a pretty good behaviour

> for anyone that actually cares about what is going

> on. This reporters know full well they're

> interviewing a goon.

How very predictable on this 'forum' that only tolerates their own views about Boris- unfortunately Boris won the election by a landslide so there are many people who prefer him to YOUR kind of lefty politics that doesn't affect the over-privileged and over-educated

[Sephiroth]

Nothing KK said indicates he is a lefty.

He is just pointing out objective truths.

Yes Johnson won a landslide. Against the worst leader imaginable

But winning is not the same as using power wisely. And Johnson just isnt.

He is awful. And if after this year if you can?t see that the it speaks badly of you

Many lifelong tories can see how awful he is and are embarrassed. So don?t just reflex ?lefty nonsense?

[KidKruger]

UG, it's not about tolerating things or holding a particular view.

My OCD sometimes just won't allow me to ignore things that are not positioned correctly, and reading "..both of them had contempt for Boris .." as if it was some kind of conspiracy or bias is patently wrong. On any planet. If the reporters regard BJ in any form of contempt it would be logical, surely ?

Hence I point out (probably 10% of) why anyone rational would hold BJ in utter contempt.

I get how he hoodwinked millions with lies, I get he won the election (albeit against weak opposition) on a populist vote, I get he is in power now, I get he's still popular to many.

But none of this deletes my point, does it ?

You can bang on about left v right, but that's not my thing and your generalisation is lame.

In this instance I'm merely calling a spade a spade.

If you got a problem with that - disprove what I wrote, demonstrate his qualities (I expect a short list) or quit with the lazy typing !

uncleglen Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> KidKruger Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > To be fair seenbeen, anyone who does not have

> > contempt for Boris must either simply not care

> > about this country and the people in it or be

> > pretty dim.

> > A proven liar, a proven slacker, a proven

> > morally-bankrupt philanderer, a proven savant

> of

> > the Tory seniors and captains of industry, a

> > proven lack of substance.

> > Who filled the cabinet with inexperienced

> friends

> > as we deal with (or not 'deal' - 'oven ready'

> > anyone ?) departure from Europe and prioritises

> > votes, bluster and ?millions to friends' fake

> > companies over welfare of the people during a

> > pandemic.

> > ?350 million per week to NHS ?

> > 'Oven Ready' deal ?

> > 'world Beating' track and trace ?

> > SAGE saying if BJ had locked down a couple of

> > weeks earlier than the initial (pretend,

> because

> > then it was just being called 'restrictions')

> > 'lockdown', we'd have half the deaths.

> > Yeah, contempt would be a pretty good behaviour

> > for anyone that actually cares about what is

> going

> > on. This reporters know full well they're

> > interviewing a goon.

>

> How very predictable on this 'forum' that only

> tolerates their own views about Boris-

> unfortunately Boris won the election by a

> landslide so there are many people who prefer him

> to YOUR kind of lefty politics that doesn't affect

> the over-privileged and over-educated

[malumbu]

I think most politically active on both the left and right are in agreement that and his cabinet are pretty useless. I suppose die hard Brexiteers will take the collateral damage (preventable deaths and economic carnage) as we get/got out of Europe. Not sure how his popular vote is holding up - is the clown act still working? You look back at Jeremy Hunt, loathed by the left and now you see someone with a bit of integrity irrespective of his political views.

I'm wading through some of his policies there is SO MUCH FLUFF, infrographics, prattle but difficult to find the substance and how its going to happen. And sharpening his knife behind him is Gove, a nightmare.

Anyway my intention wasn't to discuss the PM but appropriate measures. I'm getting more behind the circuit break, something clean and clear, as I can't see the current approach working.

The OP was about the balance between firm measures and a lighter touch, with some arguing the former kills to many through other causes. Despite what I said about unnecessary deaths whoever was in charge there would be a debate, so it is not about calling the PM a deliberate murderer, rather that there was a better way.

[JohnL]

malumbu Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I think most politically active on both the left

> and right are in agreement that and his cabinet

> are pretty useless. I suppose die hard Brexiteers

> will take the collateral damage (preventable

> deaths and economic carnage) as we get/got out of

> Europe. Not sure how his popular vote is holding

> up - is the clown act still working? You look

> back at Jeremy Hunt, loathed by the left and now

> you see someone with a bit of integrity

> irrespective of his political views.

I laughed when journalists called him Jeremy C*** "by mistake". I'm not laughing now - I'd take him in a heartbeat.

We had a Moody's credit rating downgrade on Friday and nobody noticed. Remember when this was a big thing, now it's no news at all.

"The rating agency cut its grade one notch to Aa3" https://www.ft.com/content/117349e4-dc95-4509-969b-26dcdede1773