Southwark Covid figures up ? 26/08

[pk]

jimlad48 Wrote:

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>

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> We literally have nothing to fear except fear itself, sadly fear is winning.

What kinda BS is that?!?

[Penguin68]

30 people in an area with a population density like ours is nothing. We literally have nothing to fear except fear itself, sadly fear is winning.

'East Dulwich' (the concept, not the ward) probably has about 40,000 people living in it (the ward had 12,500 in it and the area is probably 3-4 wards big).

30 deaths is a fatality rate of 0.01% - which is pretty much the UK run-rate for this. So, based on past history - our fear should be the equivalent (no more nor less) than anywhere else in the UK - indeed in the World, as 0.01% is also broadly the run-rate for any country where Covid-19 has been active.

For some of the vulnerable (perm any from 'older', 'over-weight', 'with underlying health issues') this can be a devastating disease, even where it is not fatal. For others, younger, fitter etc. it is mild and indeed amongst the very young often unnoticeable.

So, if I was a fit teenager (I'm not) I would be being very, very relaxed about the whole thing, on my own account. If I was a fit teenager living with parents and grandparents I might be worried about them, and 'giving' them something - but, If I can remember my own teenage years, probably not that much. It is probably up to the vulnerable to protect themselves - and some of those may very reasonably be very worried.

What we live in is a (sort of) nanny state that wants to worry on our behalves - and probably more so because they will be blamed for the stupidity and carelessness of others. Caution - 'wear masks' - 'wear masks in more circumstances' - 'don't mix with people' - 'keep schools closed until there's a vaccine' - is all about 'I'll be blamed if someone dies on my watch'.

The precautionary principle becomes about covering your own back. But in our blame culture is that surprising?

Although the majority of the country probably doesn't have anything (much) to fear, there is a minority which really does. So acting as if there's nothing to worry about at all, isn't quite that simple, even where it may be generally true.

[ianr]

jimlad48 Wrote:

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> I used the ONS website -

> https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit

y/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/articles/death

sinvolvingcovid19interactivemap/2020-06-12

>

> Powerful stuff and makes you realise frankly how

> few people have died of COVID in London relative

> to many other causes of death.

Thanks. I've extracted just the Middle Layer Super Output Areas (MSOA) data for Southwark from Table 5 of the spreadsheet available at https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsinvolvingcovid19bylocalareaanddeprivation . It in fact covers March to July, though the latter may be provisional. SOAs are a general mapping construct, apparently devised so as to be of approximately equal size. There are 33 in Southwark.

The extracts are attached. I've left in the Contents page of the database, which describes lists all the other tables available. In March & April 46% (206/449 ) of the deaths included Covid-19 as a contributory factor.

[JohnL]

pk Wrote:

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> jimlad48 Wrote:

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> -----

> >

> >

> > We literally have nothing to fear except fear

> itself, sadly fear is winning.

>

> What kinda BS is that?!?

It's "I'm alright Jim"