Uk Govt cabinet Plans for no deal brexit

[Sephiroth]

The sun are running with the powerpoint leaks - a few points

A) The Sun - to date, unlikely carriers pf brexit bad news

B) the contents - not good right?

C) when people say "worst case scenario" they often underestimate what exacrtly a worst case is (see pandemic plans and how that played out this year)

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12474511/emergency-plans-perfect-storm-no-deal-brexit-coronavirus-second-wave/

So - is this nonsense? If so, why are this-most-brexit-loyal of governments even discussing these points?

If it's not nonsense, why are we even considering proceeding?

[TheCat]

I don't understand your questions here. Amongst a long list of legitimate complaints we can have about govt actions this year. How is assessing a potential worst case scenario a bad thing for them to do?

Standard risk management protocol to assess a range of scenarios is it not?

[JohnL]

They'll sack whoever made the report or call them a pen pushing civil servant if whats happened before is anything to go by. It does say "Cabinet Office" - I thought that was Gove and Cummings after the latest changes.

Actually googling the name links to the below

https://www.civilserviceworld.com/professions/article/no10-reveals-details-of-taskforce-europe-as-dexeu-closure-looms

A team headed by a guy called Boris Johnson :)

[Sephiroth]

Cat

Because it?s a ludicrous situation to voluntarily put a whole country in. If you can remove one of the major risks in that scenario and extend transition, why wouldn?t you?

[TheCat]

I guess the answer very much depends on a few things - namely, the likelihood of that scenario occurring, and the effectiveness of whatever other mitigation measures are being put in place, and the risk tolerance of the people making the decisions.

Also....I know the 30 June deadline has obviously now passed for extension of transition period. But I still believe that the UK is contuning to stick to the 'no extension' line as a negotiating tactic which may force a deal from the EU. But if they get to the 11th hour (not sure when that might be) and there really is no deal, they'll find a way to extend....optimistic thinking? Yes probably. A risky tactic if true....definitely.

But looking for silver lining, Im pleased to see the govt assessing the worst case and (assuming) discussing what it means and how they can mitigate the worst risks. It would be significantly MORE worrying if they weren't even assessing worst cases at all....

[Sephiroth]

Would be better if that worst case scenario was part of the referendum and wasn?t decried as project fear

[seenbeen]

Barnier is unrealistic and intransigent and over a month ago EU leaders were going to sideline him.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1308687/Brexit-news-EU-member-state-Michel-Barnier-UK-trade-negotiation-border-Michael-Gove

I can't believe Barnier is still in his post since Boris had such a landslide victory and Barnier backed Teresa May's treacherous 'deal'

Barnier is obviously holding out for OUR fishing waters he is a nasty man

[keano77]

I wouldn?t call Barnier a nasty man. In fact I think he?s been doing a good job, working to his brief, from an EU Point of view.

I think we should concede on the fishing issue. Let our EU friends fish in our waters but only with row boats and one fishing rod and a tin of worms each.

The weight of the tin must be in lbs and ozs and the worms can be whatever shape nature gave them - even wonky banana shape.

[Blah Blah]

The government backed themselves into this corner all on their own by promising things that could never be delivered. And with the chickens about to come home to roost you have Brexiteers swallowing the trash of the Express and blaming the EU for it.

Tell me Seenbeen, when you cancel you subscription to anything, do you still expect to have access to the services offered by that subscription? No you don't. We chose to leave the EU. They don't have to give us anything. And FYI, the Withdrawal Agreement is not a trade deal. It is simply the terms for the withdrawal. And while you are at it, how much do you understand about road haulage? Because that is going to be the first headache in your no deal Brexit when 80 percent of haulage can't get hold of the permit they need to drive goods into and across the EU.

[JohnL]

seenbeen Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

>

> I can't believe Barnier is still in his post since

> Boris had such a landslide victory and Barnier

> backed Teresa May's treacherous 'deal'

> Barnier is obviously holding out for OUR fishing

> waters he is a nasty man

He's working for the EU not the UK and thus you admit he's doing rather well.

He wants the best deal possible for the EU - which means the weaker the UK the better the deal. He also may have other things in his brief - like deterring other countries from leaving the EU.

[SpringTime]

He is indeed working for the EU and therefore should also be working on a decent deal for the EU - all things considered that is likely to mean working for a deal that works for the UK too. It's not all about fish though SeenBeen. You know that, I think, maybe you're being ironic!

[diable rouge]

If the UK wants to strike a deal with the French for them to prevent smugglers from exploiting asylum seekers crossing the Channel, then you can bet your bottom Euro that the French will ask for fishing rights to be part of that deal.

And when it comes to OUR fishing waters Mr Been, you might want to familiarise yourself with the fact that UK fishermen sold a lot of their quotas to foreign ownership, especially England which is now well over 50% foreign owned. You can't force people to sell them back despite what the Express may have told you... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52420116

[Sephiroth]

Complaining about Barnier/EU being "nasty" is almost as if some people don't know what international trade negotiations are like

You think China, India or USA are not going to be hardnosed in negotiations with UK?

[Blah Blah]

Exactly that Diable Rouge, which is why I suspect the UK will concede on fishing as soon as they work out a way to square that with Brexit voters who were promised something else.

[Blah Blah]

Sephiroth Wrote:

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> Complaining about Barnier/EU being "nasty" is almost as if some people don't know what international trade negotiations are like. You think China, India or USA are not going to be

> hardnosed in negotiations with UK?

You only have to look at the history of trade negotiations, and especially between those of vast differences in market size to see that. Experts in trade did try to warn about all of this, but leave voters weren't listening, denouncing everything as project fear. And anyone who thinks the US will allow us to leave healthcare and pharmaceuticals off the table, is also deluded. In fact, there are so many supporters of privatisation in cabinet positions, that a betrayal is almost inevitable.

[TheCat]

It started off as an interesting take on the specific news of the worst case scenario planning, but it only took a handful of posts for this thread to turn into yet another EDF thread where the usual suspects bang on about how stupid, ignorant and deluded leave voters are/were...with the same tired old tropes and anecdotes.....

If at all possible, can we make some sort tp attempt to rise above that a little! The views of most of us on the other side are well documented in these pages already!

[Blah Blah]

I am sorry TheCat, but leave voters (and yes it is a generalisation, but an accurate one) pretty much rejected every warning about the realities of trade deals and negotiations. No-one trades on WTO terms solely and there is a very good reason for that.

[Sephiroth]

It's true that the usual suspects are banging on the same drums

And that may be boring. But just like the government before it went ahead with it's own plans to "squash the sombrero" or before it went ahead with exam algos, only to crash ito those walls - the government and vocal leave supporters (and you have t o acknowledge the extreme wing of that group) are ignoring warnings about where brexit is going

Is it therefore wrong to say it's stupid? Ignorant? Deluded?

I don't think it is wrong to say those things. Do they like hearing them? Of course not. But we can't just pretend otherwise simply to be nice and gentlemanly

[keano77]

I think most nations of whatever economy are worried.

There are calls for the debts of developing countries to be written off - many will never be able to pay them off and interest payments are keeping their populations in poverty

There are serious concerns global stock markets are divorced from reality and might crash

Fears of a property crash

The virus isn?t going away anytime soon

Etc etc

In short, we might be better off away from the EU to give us the flexibility to respond to a very certain world

[Blah Blah]

We are beholden to global markets just as the EU is. The sub-prime market crash was a US problem, but banks from every country were invested in it and its derivatives. That is why it was a global crash. The size of the city and financial sector as a percentage of our GDP alone, puts us at massive exposure. It accounts for 10 percent of it.

[JohnL]

I think some kind of furlough extension will happen. Germany has extended for 2 years - but they always had a part time furlough system available when we had only 100% furlough or 100% work - they are looking like moving to a 4 day week for many workers for 2 years.

With property we wait to see what will happen once the stamp duty holiday runs out next spring which will be right in the throes of any recession :(