What will Lordship Lane look like post-Covid?

[Rockets]

I am not sure if anyone else has noticed but the number of empty shops on Lordship Lane is increasing rapidly and I wonder what will happen in the post-Covid world and whether any of them will get filled given the various pressures of high rents, business rates, CPZ etc?

I hear there will be a number of independent shops that will likely not re-open post shutdown and I do wonder whether it may change significantly or whether others will take their place.

[DulwichFox]

I'm not convinced there will ever be a Post Covid time..

Covid will likely be something we will need to learn to live with for a very long time..

Pubs and restaurants are not going to ever be the same. Certainly NOT in my life time.

Many businesses will not survive. Not many people are likely to take on new businesses.

Many Restaurants rely on the sale of Alcohol. They cannot survive for long on Take-aways and Deliveries.

Many pubs rely on the sale of Food to stay afloat..

Any Vaccine is unlikely to be available to everyone as The Drug Companies will charge the Earth

like they do with their Miracle Cancer Drugs.

The Elderly will be Most at risk and will be allowed to die.. They are Too costly to keep alive.

Heart problems.. Diabetes.. Disabled..

This is a Global Pandemic. Not just East Dulwich..

[SnakeFilth]

It would be nice to have a Wetherspoons open up on LL. No doubt the current pubs we have will bump up their prices of pints on the pretence that they need to recoup money for being closed for 3 months. Spoons will at least give us the chance to get drunk at a reasonable price, and the nearest branch in Peckham is just plain scary- i've heard gang members discussing their latest stabbings in the smoking area more than once!

[JohnL]

Drinking at the bar will be the last bit to come back.

We'll all have to walk in, sit down and be served (rather continental) for a while at least.

[Chick]

Probably like Deptford High St was in the 80's. Hope not.

[chris1001uk]

Well, finally East Dulwich might get a Waitrose or a Gails so we can all calm down a bit, every cloud.........

[JohnL]

According to the Standard pubs are due to reopen two weeks earlier than planned on June 22,

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/uk-coronavirus-live-latest-updates-boris-johnson-lockdown-a4462191.html

I really don't think this is set in stone - yes in small print "if a group of six Cabinet ministers dubbed the "save the summer six" manage to persuade Boris Johnson." - I don't think they will.

[goldilocks]

Oh - which shops have closed recently? I know that the bakery on the corner of Frogley closed just before Xmas and that the old Threshers site continues to be empty at the northern end and that SoGim pharmacy also closed a few months ago, but have there been others recently?

Rockets Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I am not sure if anyone else has noticed but the

> number of empty shops on Lordship Lane is

> increasing rapidly and I wonder what will happen

> in the post-Covid world and whether any of them

> will get filled given the various pressures of

> high rents, business rates, CPZ etc?

>

> I hear there will be a number of independent shops

> that will likely not re-open post shutdown and I

> do wonder whether it may change significantly or

> whether others will take their place.

[Rockets]

Saucy has now been vacated, one of the betting shops recently closed - it was as I walked down past where the old Sogim pharmacy was that I noticed a lot of empty shops. I seem to remember an estate agent or two with notices saying the nearest branch is now....not I hasten to add that I will particularly miss betting shops or estate agents!

[KidKruger]

One would presume there'll have to be a reckoning between retail / commercial tenants and landlords in general.

Many shops and businesses, if they can hold on long enough to reopen when finally allowed, won't be able to service outgoings on a reduced (socially distanced) footfall. If landlords aren't flexible on rents due, businesses may be forced to close. And you'd think, with what's happening lately, that landlords should be shit-scared of having an empty property.

The flip-side, of course, is that many landlords have business mortgages on properties and, in turn, they also have a monthly outgoing to service - so some may be limited in how flexible they can be. But a moved-out business tenant ultimately provides the same outcome (no rent), unless contractually the landlord can hold the tenant over a barrel and take them to court. In which case I'd hope the courts recommend mediation and for both parties to find a middle way.

Either way, it seems everyone's ultimately a loser in all this unfortunately. I think LL will look a bit sorry for itself pretty soon. What a dreadful time to be retail !!

[Penguin68]

This?

[Lemming]

Don't think I agree entirely with the prediction of a windswept barren 1980s retail wasteland - locally at least.

I think there's is more disposable money knocking around than many people think. Admittedly it's becoming more concentrated in the hands of less people, but it's there and it's waiting to be spent.

Yes, there will be some defaults, closures and evictions. But the desire of the commercial landlord to wring as much as possible out of their tenants is going to be balanced by a fear of having too many properties empty for too long, earning nothing.

Also, don't a number of core local retail stalwarts own their own premises anyway?

[Plough Man]

Reckon it will bounce back within 6 months of all restrictions being lifted.

Those businesses that were highly leveraged will have disappeared. Their premises will be vacant for a spell but will be occupied by a fresh wave of new operators. This new wave, if they get their timing right, will benefit from reduced rents.

ED has a particular demographic that will ensure LL will be vibrant again quicker than most people realise. There's a lot of high earners out there and many dual income households. They are increasingly liquid because they have been denied the chance to spend anything big on holidays or fashion or eating out because of Covid19

If I was 50 years younger I would relish the opportunities that will emerge in around 3 to 6 months time.

As the old investment saying goes..."When there is blood on the streets and fear rules then that is the time to invest"

If you have the guts, go for it!

[goldilocks]

Saucy closed a while back - well before the whole Covid thing - they had some horrible luck re the opening and then they moved to France and also had some health issues I think - he posted on here. Betting shops have also pleasingly been closing quickly since the death of fixed odds betting machines. Sogim is moving over the road to the old Lush Designs shop, again this was a few months ago.

I'm not suggesting there won't be some fall out post COVID - smaller independent shops will be most at risk so we should all try to support those we want to keep as much as possible, but I can't be anything other than pleased that betting shops are closing as they are a drain on society and the one or two people they employ do not in any way outweigh that!

[sheff]

It?s going to be a war of attrition with landlords, who in the main have been taking the piss for too long.

Some aren?t, some are brilliant.

Across a 5 restaurant estate one landlord came to the table and offered monthly rents at 50% straight away, not to be repaid.

One has offered 50% to March 21, but repayable over the lease.

One offered 50% for 6 months, but repayable.

One is a #### and we were negotiating a rent review and still want to put it from ?110k to ?185k

One is up in the air, nothing decided.

To be clear, the government is backing CBILS loans, but most will create zombie companies who are so woefully over leveraged that they won?t be able to invest and will inevitably fail.

Currently there is no legal recourse on unpaid rent, that expires on June quarter date, it?s going to get messy then.

Let?s be honest, there won?t be many takers for empty sites for 6-12 months because of likely restrictions and poor experience.

Soho/West end for restaurants is going to be a sh1t show. No theaters, face masks required on transport, people working from home. Shopping will not be an experience worth traveling for, queuing, not trying things on. The footfall and lack of tourist will kill the restaurant trade, unless landlords get to grips with operators on <50% covers and adjust, their capital commitments allowing.

The winners will be local restaurants, some local shops and, inevitably the internet.

On that note - I bought 3 games for the kids from Just William, yes it cost a few quid more than Amazon, but they delivered the same day and I?m sure my ?s didn?t fly to Ireland and Luxembourg.

Amazon pay less it rates for a 270,000 sq ft distn centre in Coventry than we pay for a 2500sq ft restaurant in Soho. That?s an aside but there is no competition with that. I?d assume Just William pay about 10% of that for their little shop...

[Rockets]

According to someone posting in the lounge the following are rumoured to be going:

Next door oddbins Sylvester's pearspring and maybe headmasters

[rachp]

Nooooo, not Pearspring, I love that shop and the staff are so lovely 🙁🙁. This is so sad.

[Beefcheek]

If the government insists on an ultra strict 2metre distancing in pubs, cafes and restaurants most of them will find it incredibly difficult to survive. Especially in central London where footfall will be far lower thanks to ultra strict 10% capacity on public transport (until when?) so that?s leisure travel, post work grub/drinks ruled out. And far more people working from home. At some point very quickly the risk of Covid-19 to London is going to be far outweighed by the destruction of London?s economy. And poverty kills.

At some point soon the reality of significantly reduced furlough payments will kick in, deferred rent, taxes etc. If restaurants and pubs are operating at around 30% capacity it will not be practical to continue. Not everywhere can put tables in the street in sufficient numbers or use a beer garden (and besides, we live in the Uk - have you seen the weather today...?)

As others have pointed out on the forum, many Lordship Lane businesses were already struggling with rents etc and there are a lot of empty premises - who is going to open a new venture if 2m distancing is in force for many months, for example?

The government and Sadiq khan have to face reality and start allowing businesses to resume trading to a far higher level and for people to travel on public transport properly. Or else the damage will be huge and whatever is being paid in furlough will be dwarfed by welfare payments, health costs etc and massively reduced tax income to pay for the NHS in the first place.

Not trying to downplay the human tragedy of Covid-19 and the suffering, and I have huge sympathy for anyone affected, but the huge cost to come will be devastating to London if we don?t have a reality check very soon.

[Abe_froeman]

Pearspring had a load of plants in two weeks ago, which have since gone, the shutters have come down and sign has gone up saying closed indefnitely.

There was a guy clearing out oddbins yesterday. The inside was completely empty. Fridges, till etc all gone.

[Abe_froeman]

So I think Lordship Lane will look like a car park post lockdown with traffic trying to get to open shops queuing for hours to drive round the closed roads

[DulwichFox]

Restaurants are likely to be by Booking only.. small groups 2 - 4 max people.

Tables will need to be removed.. to enable social distancing..

Maximum stay times applied..

Same restrictions have been suggested for Pubs.. No drinking at the Bar..

Drinks allowed outside where Pub Garden is available. Outside pavement seating restricted.

Maximum 2 drinks.. 1 - 1.5 Hour stay..

Toilet facilities need to be addressed. Big Problem..

Cannot see how it will ever work.. Hardly worth the hassel.

DulwichFox

[Sue]

Abe_froeman Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Pearspring had a load of plants in two weeks ago,

> which have since gone, the shutters have come down

> and sign has gone up saying closed indefnitely.

>

> There was a guy clearing out oddbins yesterday.

> The inside was completely empty. Fridges, till etc

> all gone.

That's very sad if Pearspring has permanently closed, it was a lovely shop and all the staff were really helpful.

There never seemed to be any customers in Oddbins anyway. It always looked closed even when it wasn't, not sure why.

[DulwichFox]

Can't say I've ever heard of or noticed Pearspring.

Was it on Lordship Lane ? if so where ?

Could not of been there long. ?

It sold Plants ???

Foxy.

[Abe_froeman]

Maybe today's news might tempt them not to give up just yet, if they can open up on Monday ...

Fingers crossed

[tiddles]

Pear spring was a lovely shop next to William rose. What a shame - I wish them the very best. Cannot bear people who decide something is not worth considering because it has not hit their radar.these businesses have been paying rent, rates, vat, Nat ins etc - the country will lose valuable revenue.