American Elections - who's going to win?

[david_carnell]

You tube is full of brillant examples of stupid Americans which is unfortunate as no other nation gets this sort of abuse. Try looking for the Miss America contest and inparticular the answer the contestant from South Carolina gives to "Why can't Americans find America on a map?" Says it all.

Back on topic...

Romney is dangerous. IMO he'd beat Clinton II. He's conservative but not a neo-con and despite the whole Mormon thing he's doing well in the polls with undecideds - the key constituency. Obama needs to now start targeting the Hispanic and Southern White demographics as this is where he's losing to Clinton. Super Tuesday is going to be fascinating. It could go all the way to the Democratic convention. If you don't know what that means, check out the penultimate series of the West Wing as Matt Santos battles to become the Democratic candidate. Brilliant stuff.

[lozzyloz]

You tube is full of brillant examples of stupid Americans which is unfortunate as no other nation gets this sort of abuse.

When I was a nipper it was the Irish. But of course we don't do rascist abuse anymore . . . . unless its the Yanks.

[david_carnell]

It's not rascist (or even racist) but merely highlighting the fact that you can't expect an intelligent, ethical foreign policy from a country with this sort of electorate.

We sit here asking ourselves "How can they vote for this moron Bush?"

Because they are Bush.

America produces some of the great minds of the modern age as well, mind you.

[lozzyloz]

d_c sorry not saying you're racist just an observation on changing attitudes.

The You tube clip is funny but I don't think it's truly representative. It wouldn't be too difficult to film the same sort of thing in the UK. My experience of american friends on the East and West coast is that they are just as savvy as our Londoners (almost). Let's also not forget that when Bush was elected, the US were effectively split 50/50.

[david_carnell]

lozzyloz Wrote:

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> d_c sorry not saying you're racist just an

> observation on changing attitudes.

Oh, sorry. I'm obviously in a defensive mood.

> My experience of american friends on the East and

> West coast is that they are just as savvy as our

> Londoners (almost).

Yes, perhaps. East coast definitely (excluding the aforementioned girl from S Carolina), it's the fly-over states that still carry electoral weight that tend to be more economically and socially conservative. Weirdly, they are also the most economically deprived so it's strange they should vote Republican in such large swathes.

A socially-conservative Democrat should do well there (its why both Kerry and Gore chose Southern running-mates). Social issues seem to play more heavily I suppose. Religion is a BIG issue. Abortion is linked into that and stuff like gay marriage etc. Guliani would have been interesting. He would have appealed to Democrats in a way that none of the other candidates can due to his social liberalism on certain issues.

U.S. politicsis more than just right-left spectrum. You have to go up-down on social liberalism vs social-authoritarianism. Very few manage to be at the end of both spectrums and be successful. Clinton and Obama will talk about taxing the rich but talk tough on crime. Romney will talk about tax breaks and limiting abortion. As I mentioned earlier, McCain could prove the dark horse. Despite his age he talks a good game and can balance these axis(es) well, appealing to both sets of voters.

[Maurice]

I'd decided to stay away as a new year resolution but just can't keep it.

McCain is hardly 'anti war' Carnell. Where did you get that?

[Ted Max]

Addict.

[gerry]

McCain wants to up the troop numbers in Iraq and thinks that Rumsfeld did a good job.......that is hardly anti -war.

[Maurice]

I know Ted. I may just have to run for political office ;-)

Right re: McCain, though he's been highly critical of the way Bush and Co ran the war pre-surge.

[mockney piers]

Good point about the left right thing being very different from here.

For a start their left is very close to the political centre here (labour, tory, take your pick, same difference), and even their right is a pretty broad church.

But much more important than that are issues like abortion, religious expression and so forth.

It staggered me to see a rampant pro-business administration which gave huge tax breaks for the rich and ravaged social welfare for the poor (and went on to veto free health provision for the young), voted in by exactly those who would suffer most, because at the same time Bush wore his religious convictions on his sleeve, was anti-abortion (not that he did anything but nod in that direction in terms of legislation), ant stem-cell, stuck up for creationism and generally offered simple answers, to John Kerry's 'the world ain't that simple' view, which was easily portrayed as flip-flopping.

It appears that they may be learning their lesson this time, and Katrina may have had a lot to do with that.

But don't count your chickens...seriously!!!

[wee quinnie]

Just come across this interesting website - which asks you lots of multiple choice questions and then show you on a chart which candidate you are closest to. I'm nearest Hilary Clinton. What about you?

www.electoralcompass.com

[Nero]

It depends on who gets the nomination for the Democrats. I want Hillary to win. She's got experience and I trust her. I don't trust Barack Obama, because he's never had to prove himself and he is simply too green to be a world leader. His MLK/JFK schtick is annoying, too. Hillary just is, and she knows she's reviled by some people, but I don't think she lets it get to her. Nero

[Wimpole]

Forgive me but I think you can distill this to a very base level. John McCain will be the next president of the united states. Personally I would like a democrat.

But the reality is:

Is America ready for a female president? NO.

Is America ready for a black president? NO.

In both cases it likes to think it is thinking about it but when push comes to shove....America will vote safe.

So that rules out the democrats.

And McCain is a cert for the Republicans. And fits the square jawed American ideal.

Odds on McCain are 5/2 at Ladbrokes. There will never be an easier way to double your money!

[gerry]

If America is not ready for a woman or AfroAmerican president, then how can you explain their success in the polls so far?

[Wimpole]

Put simply, democrat voters dont have a lot of choice. I think its the voters sitting on the fence that will swing it to the republicans. Also there is a great difference between polls at this point and the election itself.

Its when the chips are down that you'll see the real voting. I'd really like to be proven wrong but dont think I will be!

[gerry]

all of the americans I know are voting democrat......they are extremely worried about another 8 or even 4 years under a republican administration. Just have a look at the issues..... the war and the economy are both the result of poor republican leadership.....

[Wimpole]

Absolutely Gerry. I'm guessing that, like me, the Americans you know are in the small % of the population who have been adventurous enough to get a passport and travel to Europe. And who therefore have more of a global perspective on things. Or they are urbanised americans in the great cities of NY, Chicago or LA.

Its Middle America which you have to worry about. The millions of us citizens living in small towns with a mall and a small town outlook. I had to travel to Kansas and Dallas for business quiet a few times and the general political attitudes were, by liberal UK standards, quite shocking.

I'd love to see Obama win. But my money is on McCain (at 5/2!).

[Wimpole]

And economically I'm not sure its poor republican stewardship. It is simply where we are in the global economic cycle. Brown was happy to let the press see him as a great and prudent chancellor when the economy was booming. But it's how you cope in a downturn that sorts out the men from the boys....

I will stick my neck out and say America would still be where it is now if it had had a democratic government for the last term. The sub prime lenders would not have been curbed by either. The only difference in real economic terms would be foreign policy and spending in Iraq.

[????]

Worries about security = republican....so the mantra goes, but I like the cut of Ob's jib...

[gerry]

The Americans living in the US know that Clinton left the economy with a surplus and Bush had a field day spending it. The economy for many Americans started losing ground when the war started.

[franglaisia]

mockney piers Wrote:

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> I

> remember how depressing it was when Bush won a

> second term.

Would it cheer you up at all to drop a reminder that he didn't win the second term. He stole it, courtesy of hanging chads, districts that didn't get enough voting machines delivered, ghost votes, etc, etc.

[dc]

franglaisia Wrote:

>

> Would it cheer you up at all to drop a reminder

> that he didn't win the second term. He stole it,

> courtesy of hanging chads, districts that didn't

> get enough voting machines delivered, ghost votes,

> etc, etc.

I think it was the first term that was won in such a manner - and in reality Gore lost it as much as Bush 'stole' it. He failed to carry his own state for goodness sake - which would have been enough to take the country as whole.

It would be hard to argue that Bush won his second term anything other than fair and square so, no, it really doesn't cheer me up one little bit.

[mockney piers]

Yeah, I thought it was the first one that was blatantly stolen, a bit like LBJ's mysterious boxes in Texas, but what's doen is done.

For the record every American I know also votes Democrat in every election, doesn't seem to make a difference. I too like the cut of Obama's jib, but fear the worst. At least McCain seems to be distancing himself from Bush, and hopefully the Neocons will be well and truly ousted from power. The Grand Old Party is a big old umbrella of a thing.

I had some Labour canvassers come round yesterday. Still ill after 8 days, I went back into my house smiling for the first time in ages.

Poor dears, couldn't wait to leave my front door, Mwah hah hah hah hah hah!!!

[david_carnell]

Had any other canvassers MP? Guess you're a lost cause! ;-)

[mockney piers]

I told them that I'm a socia-list* at heart and they should buck their ideas up if they wanted my vote.

Well, that's the polite version. :-$

*I voted CNT (anarcho-syndicalism) at the last Spanish election, but mainly because it sounds cool.