What will be the 'new normal' for transport in ED post Covid-19

[Penguin68]

I?m trying to coalesce some thoughts I?ve had on a number of threads, so apologies if not all this appears novel.

It is clear that right now, ED traffic and traffic patterns bear no resemblance to anything recently measured in planning future alteration to the area?s roads. Vehicle traffic is down across the area, by 60-80% if government averages are to be believed, and usage of public transport has fallen off a cliff.

It is very likely that it will take some time ? perhaps up to 18 months ? before we reach a ?new normal?. Although this might be the old normal, I personally think this is most unlikely. I suspect that the volume of working from home for former office workers will stay high, and that those who do travel into work will not be travelling all at the same time (staggered working hours) and far fewer will be risking public transport. This will have the effect of reducing congestion and concomitant pollution. [And if it was true that people were driving in to ED to commute through to the centre, I doubt whether this will still be true, or to the same extent].

Although the council would, I am sure, be pleased if we all moved to bicycles, it must be remembered that ED and surrounds are hilly and quite far away from the Centre (City & West End) ? and indeed that ED residents are not all spring chickens, leading me to guess that a reliance on private cars (particularly as these are seen as very much more ?Covid-19 safe? than using public transport) ? especially amongst the elderly or otherwise frail ? will increase; meaning that Southwark?s war on private cars does need to be reconsidered.

And certainly undertaking road change schemes before a ?new normal? develops and is acknowledged would be at best a waste of money, and at worst an attack on residents. ?Bicycle or use public transport? cannot now be the Council?s go-to solution, nor is locking cars out of areas any longer acceptable.

But what do others think?

[rupert james]

If you read what Khan is now proposing it does not seem worthwhile even thinking about what traffic flows, people traveling will be.

His latest gem, buses to only carry 15 people, more bike lanes and no plan for the tube.

People will not bother even leaving their homes.

I vote we make him Mayor for life as it is impossible to get anyone as clever ever.

[PnB]

I see why buses have been made free to minimise contact with drivers, but it was quite the sight to see buses driving down (actually struggling down now parking legislation has now been abandoned) Rye Lane with buses full again, with passengers clearly not going to/from work, just taking advantage of the free ride. No doubt traces of Coronavirus on many of the surfaces and handles of the vehicle. Hardly a good idea when trying to contain a global pandemic killer virus.

[NewWave]

Penguin68 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I?m trying to coalesce some thoughts I?ve had on a

> number of threads, so apologies if not all this

> appears novel.

>

> It is clear that right now, ED traffic and traffic

> patterns bear no resemblance to anything recently

> measured in planning future alteration to the

> area?s roads. Vehicle traffic is down across the

> area, by 60-80% if government averages are to be

> believed, and usage of public transport has fallen

> off a cliff.

>

> It is very likely that it will take some time ?

> perhaps up to 18 months ? before we reach a ?new

> normal?. Although this might be the old normal, I

> personally think this is most unlikely. I suspect

> that the volume of working from home for former

> office workers will stay high, and that those who

> do travel into work will not be travelling all at

> the same time (staggered working hours) and far

> fewer will be risking public transport. This will

> have the effect of reducing congestion and

> concomitant pollution. .

>

> Although the council would, I am sure, be pleased

> if we all moved to bicycles, it must be remembered

> that ED and surrounds are hilly and quite far away

> from the Centre (City & West End) ? and indeed

> that ED residents are not all spring chickens,

> leading me to guess that a reliance on private

> cars (particularly as these are seen as very much

> more ?Covid-19 safe? than using public transport)

> ? especially amongst the elderly or otherwise

> frail ? will increase; meaning that Southwark?s

> war on private cars does need to be reconsidered.

>

> And certainly undertaking road change schemes

> before a ?new normal? develops and is acknowledged

> would be at best a waste of money, and at worst an

> attack on residents. ?Bicycle or use public

> transport? cannot now be the Council?s go-to

> solution, nor is locking cars out of areas any

> longer acceptable.

>

> But what do others think?

Its a real worry..I dont drive can't ride a bike and aged over 60 I dont want to try and learn on Londons roads..I'll have to return to work in the west end post lockdown and the idea of overground and tube and the canada water interchange terrifies me.

Buses aren't really a viable option as I would need to take 2 and it takes well over an hour, I think its less of a risk taking two 15 minute train rides than sitting on a number 12 where the windows dont open for 60minutes

[heartblock]

Buses, bike lanes and more pedestrianisation. The school run needs to stop, children can get to school by walking and bike. There is a child obesity issue, yet they seem unable to walk to school, my journey was a 2 hour round walk. Unfortunately too many 4 wheel drive private schools around ED. With parents bringing their precious ones by car every day. Yes.. I am feeling grumpy today. Fewer cars - cleaner air.

[wulfhound]

Its a real worry..I dont drive can't ride a bike and aged over 60 I dont want to try and learn on Londons roads..I'll have to return to work in the west end post lockdown and the idea of overground and tube and the canada water interchange terrifies me.

Electric moped, 50cc equivalent? Don't need CBT if you have an old driving license; if you don't have one, it's just a day. No pollution, no C-charge or T-charge.

I suspect they're going to have to hurry up and legalise the 250w class e-scooters for road use also, which will be a lot less expensive and likely exempt from CBT, but they'll be speed limited to something pretty slow - 12 or 15mph.

[NewWave]

wulfhound Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> > Its a real worry..I dont drive can't ride a bike

> and aged over 60 I dont want to try and learn on

> Londons roads..I'll have to return to work in the

> west end post lockdown and the idea of overground

> and tube and the canada water interchange

> terrifies me.

>

>

> Electric moped, 50cc equivalent? Don't need CBT if

> you have an old driving license; if you don't have

> one, it's just a day. No pollution, no C-charge or

> T-charge.

>

> I suspect they're going to have to hurry up and

> legalise the 250w class e-scooters for road use

> also, which will be a lot less expensive and

> likely exempt from CBT, but they'll be speed

> limited to something pretty slow - 12 or 15mph.

I'm scared to ride a moped as I can't ride a bike I fear a moped would be similar but faster and having got this far without ever being on a motorbike or moped I'm scared to try..at this rate I'll be walking!

[DuncanW]

Clearly, there are no easy answers regarding transport as we ease lockdown. But I really hope that the council do not step back on their commitment to promote active travel, and to do what they can to reduce the dreadful amount of pollution in the borough that is caused by cars.

[exdulwicher]

It depends a bit on how lockdown is lifted, what restrictions remain in place and for how long and what (if any) mitigation (eg masks, social distancing) is used on public transport. Masks are difficult - mostly for security reasons and while you might have commuters willing to risk a short bus journey, how many would be willing to be surrounded by masked individuals...? It's something not publically acknowledged at the moment but it's a major concern; you basically swap risk of a virus for a much increased risk of crime.

It is impossible to replace reduced mass transit capacity with private cars. If car sharing isn't possible due to social distancing, every previously full rush hour bus will generate an additional 30-40 cars. Within London, if you drop public transport by 85% or so, that's an additional 8 million journeys you have to "move" to somewhere else. You don't have to have a huge amount of experience commuting in cities to know that 8 million additional car journeys will be complete and utter gridlock.

The only way to even partially replace lost mass transit capacity is active travel. There's the equality issue as well because (while it varies borough to borough), the figures are that roughly 1/4 - 1/3rd of Londoners don't have access to a car. So if you prioritise cars, those people are disadvantaged further because the roads are clogged solid making it dangerous to walk or cycle and impractical to take the bus due to the congestion.

Most cities (towns, boroughs etc) have virtually no capacity to quickly increase their capacity for cars but most can increase the bike and pedestrian capacity relatively quickly and cheaply. Lambeth have already done a fair bit in and around Brixton and Herne Hill and they put in place a borough-wide Emergency Traffic Order to allow the changes.

The smart thing for Southwark to do is put in place a temporary version of the Healthy Sreets Plan NOW - it can be done relatively quickly and cheaply using fencing, plastic wands, planters etc although you can't put in camera-controlled permitted turns (as talked about at EDG / Townley Road) as fast, that's a fairly major logistical task to install and programme it. There's your trial period straight away with the knowledge that it can be quickly and cheaply removed again (rather than several months of roadworks to rebuild junctions again).

Some of it will depend a bit on work patterns - will people continue to work from home where that's possible? What about schools, how can social distancing be maintained in school classrooms, sports facilites, changing rooms nd on coaches to and from school? In the Healthy Streets thread is a whole raft of complaints / issues with coaches but if you have to go from 25 coaches to 50 to fit all the kids on in a socially distant manner then that's gridlock again... But if kids can't go to school, the parents can't go back to work so...???

And you've got to admit, the area with far fewer cars is really nice. Less traffic noise, less pollution, it's nice to see families and kids riding bikes along streets previously solid with cars. And if every open shop is going to have a 2m-spaced queue of people outside it then there isn't enough pavement space for everyone so the only option is to expand into the roads. This is being done worldwide now, it's not something that just Sadiq Khan is talking about - if anything the message is now coming from Government that this has to be done otherwise the pollution and gridlock will kill the economy just as badly as coronavirus has.

This cartoon shows where we've sort of blindly stumbled to with car culture:

Just need to take back some of that yawning chasm of car space and make it people space.

[Sally Eva]

In that spirit

Gov.uk today? ?2 billion package to create new era for cycling and walking includes?

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/2-billion-package-to-create-new-era-for-cycling-and-walking?utm_source=cde539b3-ac15-4d45-8e16-68d2a7ca7db6&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_content=immediate

Fast-tracked statutory guidance, published today and effective immediately, will tell councils to reallocate roadspace for significantly-increased numbers of cyclists and pedestrians. In towns and cities, some streets could become bike and bus-only while others remain available for motorists. More side streets could be closed to through traffic, to create low-traffic neighbourhoods and reduce rat-running while maintaining access for vehicles.

Vouchers will be issued for cycle repairs, to encourage people to get their old bikes out of the shed, and plans are being developed for greater provision of bike fixing facilities. Many more will take up the Cycle to Work scheme, which gives employees a discount on a new bike.

[sally buying]

Has a new money tree orchard been discovered

[exdulwicher]

sally buying Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Has a new money tree orchard been discovered

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/opinion/coronavirus-and-the-ultimate-magic-money-tree/20/03/

There's a related article linked in that one about "austerity" as well, both are worth a read.

Plus that money isn't new, it's a re-announcement of previously allocated funding, just been repackaged and brought forward a little bit.

[rupert james]

Sally Eva Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> In that spirit

>

> Gov.uk today? ?2 billion package to create new era

> for cycling and walking includes?

> https://www.gov.uk/government/news/2-billion-packa

> ge-to-create-new-era-for-cycling-and-walking?utm_s

> ource=cde539b3-ac15-4d45-8e16-68d2a7ca7db6&utm_med

> ium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_con

> tent=immediate

>

>

> Fast-tracked statutory guidance, published today

> and effective immediately, will tell councils to

> reallocate roadspace for significantly-increased

> numbers of cyclists and pedestrians. In towns and

> cities, some streets could become bike and

> bus-only while others remain available for

> motorists. More side streets could be closed to

> through traffic, to create low-traffic

> neighbourhoods and reduce rat-running while

> maintaining access for vehicles.

>

> Vouchers will be issued for cycle repairs, to

> encourage people to get their old bikes out of the

> shed, and plans are being developed for greater

> provision of bike fixing facilities. Many more

> will take up the Cycle to Work scheme, which gives

> employees a discount on a new bike.

It seems to me that the Govt is floating more and more unwanted and ill thought of ideas to deflect people from their mishandling of the virus situation.

Put Khan in charge of silly ideas and money wasting and you will suddenly realise just how bad it all is getting.

If you have a pet idea that is of no value please list here as it appears that funding will be given immediately to stop people realising that they are giving up rights without any proper discussion in the HOC.

Big brother is growing every day.

Be aware.

[wulfhound]

A low-powered moped is a very different beast from either a bike or a motorbike. Has neither the balance demands of the former, or the terrifying-for-many, exhilarating-for-some acceleration and power of the latter.

The talk around the pending legalisation of lightweight e-scooters suggests that those, unlike mopeds, will be able to go anywhere cyclists can, i.e. cycle lanes, cycle paths in parks, and permeable road closures, and therefore away from cars a lot of the time. Could be quite liberating for people who are reasonably agile but for whom bikes aren't an option.

[malumbu]

Dear Rupert

I know one of the poor souls that is trying to work out how we try to get things moving, maintaining some sort of revenues for our public transport, stopping everyone getting into their cars with the result impact on carbon emissions, air quality and congestion, whilst building on the benefits we have seen from the increase of active transport.

Behind every Grant Shapps or Sadiq Khan their is a hard working public spirited official looking at the options and trying to come to solutions.

Its easy to snipe. What are your answers? Gauntlet laid down.

If I do have a axe to grind it is cowardice since the 2000 fuel protest to take on motorists and the motoring lobby. Things may have changed due to the exceptional situation. Or perhaps you are one of rrrsss hammering down Brenchley Gardens at 60mph enjoying the lack of traffic, on your unnecessary journey without fear of speed enforcement. Yes, opposing that big brother nonsense that we shouldn't be allowed to drive when we want, where we want, how we want.... Hopefully we will be seeing some of the lessons of the ban on smoking and future generations will ask "did people really smoke in restaurants, did people really drive like twots?"

The current and previous Mayors may have done a lot to criticise but have also done things to increase public transport and active travel. Ironically each have benefited from the legacy of the previous one.

[rupert james]

My answer is very simple allow the hard working people carry on to try and get things solved and moving. Their work is very much appreciated.

Do not try and pass policies under the cover of the virus which appears to be happening. When this current problem is understood fully we can have an open and frank debate with all people of the UK to see where they would like to go and not the policies of a few.

I am 74 years of age I do not go hammering down roads in my car.

[Ampersand]

*

[Jules-and-Boo]

It's unprecedented times.

No need to insult each other.

Personally, I'm enjoying fewer cars about and hope that continues.

There is short term, mid and long term and strategies/modelling is based on different scenarios.

It's not about deflecting scrutiny over how the virus was handled, which arguably should have been stricter with enforcement. It's about safely getting the economy back and people working safely, while mitigating the challenge from those who think they are invincible and safety rules need not apply.

People who use their cars for unnecessary journeys will just have to stop, there won't be room on the roads. It will be essential journeys only; the volumes on public transport will increase staggered rate as expected.

People really need to take responsibility and a good hard look at the reason they are travelling

[peckman01]

rupert james Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> My answer is very simple allow the hard working

> people carry on to try and get things solved and

> moving. Their work is very much appreciated.

>

> Do not try and pass policies under the cover of

> the virus which appears to be happening. When

> this current problem is understood fully we can

> have an open and frank debate with all people of

> the UK to see where they would like to go and not

> the policies of a few.

>

> I am 74 years of age I do not go hammering down

> roads in my car.

Hi Rupert, You don't appear to have answered Malumbu's question: what is your fully worked up policy proposal that will simultaneously keep congestion within manageable limits; permit everyone to keep 2m away from everyone else; and not disadvantage those already disadvantaged (and therefore likely unable to buy a car etc.)?

Looking forward to your suggestion. You may find there is in fact no simple answer.

[dbboy]

https://twitter.com/search?q=%22London%20Fields%22&src=trend_click

[micromacromonkey]

rupert james Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> My answer is very simple allow the hard working

> people carry on to try and get things solved and

> moving. Their work is very much appreciated.

>

> Do not try and pass policies under the cover of

> the virus which appears to be happening. When

> this current problem is understood fully we can

> have an open and frank debate with all people of

> the UK to see where they would like to go and not

> the policies of a few.

>

> I am 74 years of age I do not go hammering down

> roads in my car.

I disagree, this is EXACTLY the excuse we need to get some proper transport policy changes done under the umbrella/smokescreen of coronavirus. These changes need to overall be a modal shift to walking and cycling. In your case these are not directly aimed at you obviously, but will make the roads clearer for those like you who do need to use a car. (Although you should go to a bike shop and give an e-bike a try, you'd be amazed how much fun they are and plenty powerful enough to deal with the hills round here.)

Up until now road use has been increasing steadily and policy has been to keep throwing money at road schemes just to keep our heads above water supporting this transport mode. Powerful lobbying interests have prevented successive governments having the balls to do anything about it.

I sincerely hope that this crisis can become a turning point, and that we have reached peak car usage. I am out cycling every couple of days and whenever I cross over the M25 in Kent it is deserted. This, along with the astonishing figures on short-term reduction in pollution, gives a window into what the future could look like. It enables a narrative that policymakers can use to effect the shift in policy away from further road mega-projects to instead spend the money spent on other forms of transport.

[seenbeen]

The transport secretary said that the capacity of the public transport will be about 1 tenth and they are going to support cycling and pedestrians more.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/may/09/uk-coronavirus-live-ministers-plan-14-day-quarantine-for-arrivals-as-garden-centres-set-to-reopen--latest-updates

[Penguin68]

Most posters seem to have leaped straight into solution mode - often riding familiar hobby horses - but partly my point was that solutions are only valid in the light of the problems they are solving. I am suggesting that the post 2020 traffic and travel picture in ED, once stabilised, is very likely not be be the one that planners assessed in 2019 when confirming their road and transport plans.

Some suggest rushing forward, and indeed extending, existing plans - but does that make sense when we don't, any longer, know what problems we are solving, or the priorities in solving them? Air quality is important, but so is the ability for the elderly and infirm (and i.e. families that want to travel together) to be able to move round. If public transport is much truncated, and if it is no longer sustainable 'at the price' when it can only operate at 30% loading, for instance, then a policy which offers bike or public transport only will lock-up swathes of the population in their homes - when that public transport is either not available, or too pricey - unable to move further than they can walk? Is this socially acceptable? [i can't imagine Freedom Passes lasting longer than TfL's bankruptcy].

But whatever solutions we do come up with, and whatever hard choices have to be made, let's at least do so knowing what we are actually facing, rather than committing expenditure now on favoured 2019 solutions.

[exdulwicher]

But it's not an either/or picture, no-one is saying that everyone has to ride bikes all the time.

There's a finite set of road space in East Dulwich (and indeed in pretty much all towns and cities). Most of that road space is already not far off capacity at least some of the time, if not quite a lot of the time. It takes AGES to build more roadspace, you're talking years to plan, approve and construct a new highway or bypass or housing estate with the corresponding road network.

We can fairly safely assume that some working patterns will change dramatically - much more working from home, remote meetings and so on which will remove a percentage of journeys from the roads and public transport. But obviously not everyone can WFH, there's still going to be a need for travel to and from work.

In the short term at least, we can also assume that a lot of leisure facilites - gyms, restaurants, cinemas, theatres, museums - probably aren't going to open up at anywhere near capacity so again, that removes a percentage of leisure travel. International tourism we can probably write off for the rest of the year which again frees up a significant chunk of travel in and around central London (less applicable in ED).

However, we can also assume that social distancing is going to be a thing for a while. There's a related and interesting read here about viral transmission in different circumstances (in/outdoors, pblic transport etc):

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

So public transport can potentially operate at about 15-20% of current levels at best. You could put on more buses but that leads to issues up in central London when they all converge plus there's not a massive amount of spare capacity and drivers just sitting there waiting to go. Train and tube capacity is even more difficult to increase. There's the school coach issue I mentioned ^^ as well which is a bit of an unknown at the moment.

Working off all of that, we can probably assume a drop of about 25% in people actually needing to travel from pre-Covid levels (change in working patterns, remote working, only in the office one day a week for example). But that still doesn't balance with the 80% cut in public transport capacity.

So... if you put all of those journeys into private cars, they won't fit on the roads. Gridlock, pollution and Rupert's point of "the hard-working people trying their best" is no good if the hard working people are all stuck in traffic along with critical delivery vehicles, emergency services and the public transport that is still running.

Years and years of largely pointless Government campaigns aimed at "sharing the road" and "giving cyclists space" have amounted to nothing, the ONLY things that increase the number of people cycling are segregated lanes and reducing traffic. You can see it now (not just in ED). Cycling, when there's vastly reduced traffic on the roads is really nice. Great way for families to get around together, fantastic for keeping distance from others, cheap, easily accessible. But they won't ride if/when, traffic is back at pre-Covid levels. They didn't before, why would they now? Traffic scares people off the roads and we end up in the Catch-22 of the roads being dangerous because of the traffic so I won't cycle, I'll drive. And there's more traffic so it's more dangerous to cycle so more people drive...

And certainly undertaking road change schemes before a ?new normal? develops and is acknowledged would be at best a waste of money, and at worst an attack on residents. ?Bicycle or use public transport? cannot now be the Council?s go-to solution, nor is locking cars out of areas any longer acceptable.

This is 100% wrong. You don't wait until the whole house is ablaze before calling the fire brigade. Similarly, you don't wait until the streets are solid with traffic to then go "hmm, best do something about that". The change has happened - people need to move around reasonably efficiently and in a well-spaced manner. By enabling the ones who can walk / cycle / scooter to do so safely, you free up space on public transport and on the roads for the people who need it.

[Nigello]

There?s news today That local councils will be able to fast track the closure of roads near schools at certain times of the day to avoid congestion and reduce pollution. If you are interested in reducing traffic levels near to your house then you could contact the headteacher of the school and your local council to let your thoughts be known.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/may/09/uk-councils-to-enforce-temporary-road-closures-for-safer-school-runs