COVID-19 Fact or Fiction?

[j.a.]

Robbie Wrote:

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> Applying discretion as to

> who it is to be enforced against is just asking

> for trouble. Either scrap it altogether or apply

> it consistently.

This is off-topic I know, but is that really the best way? That there be no room for nuance or consideration of circumstance? That the law must always be applied, to the letter, regardless of individual circumstance?

[Robbie]

j.a. Wrote:

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> Well, I understand you have strong feelings on the

> matter, but consider this.

>

> Over a thousand people turned up, listened to

> speeches, voiced their opinion and went home. No

> tear gas, no baton charges, no rubber bullets, no

> one was kettled.

>

> Piers Corbyn is free - and is going to - appeal

> the fine through the legal system.

>

> Honestly, that doesn?t look much like tyranny and

> suppression to me.

It sends the message that organisers of peaceful protests involving a few thousand people against government actions will be prosecuted, whereas organisers of a 'million people' march will not. As the legislation is regarding public health, it's clear as day who of the 2 should be pursued.

The law in itself appears to be contentios considering the Human Rights Act where everybody has a freedom of expression and a freedom of thought and assembly.

[Sephiroth]

?Whatever people's beliefs are about the lockdowns (many courts across the world have ruled that they were illegal) ?

This just isn?t true

You will see the odd case (like South Africa) where some of the early restrictions (not the lockdown itself) were challenged. But that is a very different story.

[Robbie]

Sephiroth Wrote:

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> ?Whatever people's beliefs are about the lockdowns

> (many courts across the world have ruled that they

> were illegal) ?

>

> This just isn?t true

>

> You will see the odd case (like South Africa)

> where some of the early restrictions (not the

> lockdown itself) were challenged. But that is a

> very different story.

Some illegal, others unconstitutional or court suspending them:

New Zealand

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-newzealand/new-zealand-court-rules-part-of-early-coronavirus-lockdown-was-illegal-idUKKCN25F04S

Spain

https://www.politico.eu/article/spanish-court-suspends-lockdown-of-catalan-city-despite-virus-resurgence/

US (One example as lockdowns were decided at state level not federal - There are several cases ongoing)

https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/oregon-circuit-court-declares-covid-19-lockdown-is-illegal

South Africa

https://africa.cgtn.com/2020/06/02/south-africa-court-rules-level-3-4-lockdown-restrictions-invalid-unconstitutional/

Malawi

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/malawi-high-court-blocks-coronavirus-lockdown-200417184430403.html

Pakistan

voanews.com/south-central-asia/pakistans-top-court-ends-coronavirus-lockdown

Love your username - FF7 fan?

[Robbie]

I've read about others, those were from spending just 2 minutes on Google

[j.a.]

Erm, I?m not sure that those articles make quite the case you saying they do, particularly the New Zealand and Spain cases.

I think it?s good that people are able to challenge lockdowns in court, because otherwise we certainly would be looking at a ?tyranny and suppression? situation, but my reading of theirs links more paints a picture of places where the govt. need to explain themselves better or provide more support. Although America is being its usual basket-case self...

[Sephiroth]

What ja said

And yep, ffvii fan from long way back

[Spartacus]

I wonder if people like Piers will be still shouting conspiracy if they actually caught Covid ? Or would they claim they were deliberately infected by the powers that be !

[Robbie]

Sephiroth Wrote:

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> What ja said

>

> And yep, ffvii fan from long way back

Still probably my favourite game of all time. I played through it twice before I even knew about Knights of the Round! I never did get round to defeating the 2 weapons though. Might give it another crack..

[Robbie]

Just having a look at the data for the past 7 days (the most recent 7 days where data is available for each):

Tests - 1,332,658

Cases - 10,068

Deaths - 31

That's a lot of tests! Deaths now at a daily average of 4.5 is extremely enoouraging

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

[JohnL]

Are older people shielding (or just being much more careful).

I'm not old but I haven't been out much at all if I'm representative - I'm not really scared, just doesn't seem worth it for the hassle (sitting down at a table, no talking to anyone, ordering by app) - whilst for teenagers and twenty somethings it is.

[JohnL]

Hancock blaming the young whereas you might have expected him to say they were testing more

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/matt-hancock-coronavirus-cases-rise-social-distancing-a4541496.html

[Robbie]

Hang on a minute it appears that the World Bank were exporting Covid-19 test kits back in 2018??

https://web.archive.org/web/20200905104533if_/https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/ALL/year/2018/tradeflow/Exports/partner/WLD/nomen/h5/product/300215

They've since changed the product description to cover it up since this was doing the rounds on Twitter yesterday, but the link shows the archived webpage prior to this breaking.

Very strange

[ianr]

https://web.archive.org/web/20200905104533if_/https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/ALL/year/2018/tradeflow/Exports/partner/WLD/nomen/h5/product/300215 , ie

https:///web.archive.org/web/20200905104533if_/https:///wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/ALL/year/2018/tradeflow/Exports/partner/WLD/nomen/h5/product/300215

is an archive of a web page dated 5 September 2020. Anyone taking it as good evidence of a fact situated in 2018 is being rather foolish.

Have a look at the live version of the target page, but with 2018 changed to 2017, ie using wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/ALL/year/2017/tradeflow/Exports/partner/WLD/nomen/h5/product/300215

and you'll find the header note:"Medical Test kits (300215) exports by country in 2017

Additional Product information: Diagnostic reagents based on immunological reactions

Category: Medical Test kits/ Instruments, apparatus used in Diagnostic Testing

The data here track previously existing medical devices that are now classified by the World Customs Organization as critical to tackling COVID-19"

[seenbeen]

JohnL Wrote:

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> Hancock blaming the young whereas you might have

> expected him to say they were testing more

>

> https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/matt-hancock-co

> ronavirus-cases-rise-social-distancing-a4541496.ht

> ml

Since most young people are symptomless would they go and get tested anyway? How many others have they infected?

At the beginning of the lockdown I was taking exercise in Alleyn's Field where there were groups of teens- 6 or so- hiding in the memorial garden.

I went to Greenwich Park one evening just after we were told we could travel- and there were helicopters flying over Blackheath on the lookout for groups I daresay- they should have sent people into the park because there were large groups of teens sitting under the trees as the branches almost reach the floor.

Then you've got all the illegal demos.all the people crowding onto the beaches....

[JohnL]

ianr Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> https://web.archive.org/web/20200905104533if_/http

> s://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/A

> LL/year/2018/tradeflow/Exports/partner/WLD/nomen/h

> 5/product/300215 , ie

>

> https:///web.archive.org/web/20200905104533if_/htt

> ps:///wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country

> /ALL/year/2018/tradeflow/Exports/partner/WLD/nomen

> /h5/product/300215

>

> is an archive of a web page dated 5 September

> 2020. Anyone taking it as good evidence of a fact

> situated in 2018 is being rather foolish.

>

> Have a look at the live version of the target

> page, but with 2018 changed to 2017, ie using

> wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/ALL/y

> ear/2017/tradeflow/Exports/partner/WLD/nomen/h5/pr

> oduct/300215

>

> and you'll find the header note:"Medical Test kits

> (300215) exports by country in 2017

> Additional Product information: Diagnostic

> reagents based on immunological reactions

> Category: Medical Test kits/ Instruments,

> apparatus used in Diagnostic Testing

> The data here track previously existing medical

> devices that are now classified by the World

> Customs Organization as critical to tackling

> COVID-19"

That's a database or query/report issue I think (I saw a post with this on facebook)

[j.a.]

JohnL Wrote:

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> Are older people shielding (or just being much

> more careful).

>

> I'm not old but I haven't been out much at all if

> I'm representative - I'm not really scared, just

> doesn't seem worth it for the hassle (sitting down

> at a table, no talking to anyone, ordering by app)

> - whilst for teenagers and twenty somethings it

> is.

One group not shielding was the teaching staff of Trinity School in Lewisham, who all went tO the pub together for a drink shortly before term started.

One of them subsequently tested positive and the night before the kids were due to go back, all the parents got an email telling them the school is staying closed for another two weeks while the whole staff isolates!

Needless to say, parents not happy.

[Robbie]

JohnL Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> ianr Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> >

> https://web.archive.org/web/20200905104533if_/http

>

> >

> s://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/A

>

> >

> LL/year/2018/tradeflow/Exports/partner/WLD/nomen/h

>

> > 5/product/300215 , ie

> >

> >

> https:///web.archive.org/web/20200905104533if_/htt

>

> >

> ps:///wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country

>

> >

> /ALL/year/2018/tradeflow/Exports/partner/WLD/nomen

>

> > /h5/product/300215

> >

> > is an archive of a web page dated 5 September

> > 2020. Anyone taking it as good evidence of a

> fact

> > situated in 2018 is being rather foolish.

> >

> > Have a look at the live version of the target

> > page, but with 2018 changed to 2017, ie using

> >

> wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/ALL/y

>

> >

> ear/2017/tradeflow/Exports/partner/WLD/nomen/h5/pr

>

> > oduct/300215

> >

> > and you'll find the header note:"Medical Test

> kits

> > (300215) exports by country in 2017

> > Additional Product information: Diagnostic

> > reagents based on immunological reactions

> > Category: Medical Test kits/ Instruments,

> > apparatus used in Diagnostic Testing

> > The data here track previously existing medical

> > devices that are now classified by the World

> > Customs Organization as critical to tackling

> > COVID-19"

>

> That's a database or query/report issue I think (I

> saw a post with this on facebook)

Do you have a link to that post at all please?

The classification reference (300215) is described as COVID-19 Test kits - Diagnostic reagents based on immunological reactions

http://wits.worldbank.org/data/public/hs-classification-reference_edition-2_en.pdf

So the original data query of the product description returning as 'COVID-19 Test kits' appears to be correct. The classification reference for Medical Test Kits (as it now shows since this went viral) is 382200. The site still shows 300215.

With regard to immunological reactions, does anyone know if a specific Covid-19 test would be be via detection of proteins from the COVID-19 virus or antibodies?

[Robbie]

HS classification reference 902780 is listed as:

COVID-19 Diagnostic Test instruments and apparatus - Instruments used in clinical laboratories for In Vitro

Diagnosis

Huge rise in imports/exports for this back in Dec 2019, way before the virus became mainstream

https://importkey.com/hs/902780

[JohnL]

Pneumonia of unknown cause reported to WHO China Office

31 December 2019

At the close of 2019, the WHO China Country Office was informed of a pneumonia of unknown cause, detected in the city of Wuhan in Hubei province, China. According to the authorities, some patients were operating dealers or vendors in the Huanan Seafood market.

Staying in close contact with national authorities, WHO began monitoring the situation and requested further information on the laboratory tests performed and the different diagnoses considered.

[diable rouge]

This is a very good Q&A on where we currently are with Covid, as some of you don't like clicking on links I've copied and pasted the info, but this is the link f you want to see the original source...

Like I suspect a number of scientists I've been quizzed by a variety of friends and family on COVID, and its gone up recently because (a) school is back and so people can feel change around them and (b) there is a change in stats in across countries in Europe.

Q: Has the virus gone away? There are very few deaths now.

A: Sadly no. The virus stop circulating in the population because we restricted how many people on average each person meets during lockdown. This worked, but the virus is still present in the population and can come back

Q: Has the virus got less deadly? Or hospital treatment better?

A: The virus has not obviously got less deadly inherently. Due to excellent clinical research across the world treatment has got better; we now know of a handful of drugs which do work and a number which dont >>

Although the treatments are better, it is nowhere close to a "cure" - perhaps 20% to 40% fewer people are dying in hospital than early on, but not enough to fundamental change the progress of the disease

Q: The cases have gone up to the same level as April of this year, and yet deaths have not risen. Surely something has changed?

A: Yes. The main thing that has changed is most countries have far more testing capacity and they offer tests to far broader range >>

The other thing is that younger people are being less careful (older people have remained careful) so the cases and transmission are happening more in the young, in particular in France and Spain

Given that it looks like we have cases and few deaths that's ok right? Why not keep on like this?

A: Frustratingly epidemics have two modes: "growing" and "shrinking". It is basically near impossible to have something "just ticking along" at a steady relatively high rate.

Q: OK. Can't we just let the young people get it, and then they will all be immune

A: Although the rate is higher in the young it is still in the 1 in 1,000 or so (say in France) - there is plenty further it can get to and at some point it will likely go into the older population

To make a segregation work to be confident that you just let rip in one part of the population without infecting another part you really have to have basically no contact - anywhere, any context, any shop, any school, any hospital and any family. It's basically unfeasible.

Q: What about just letting everyone have it at some controlled rate now? Isn't this what Sweden is doing?

A: Just letting the virus circulate will mean somewhere around 0.5% (perhaps a little lower) of people dying and many more people having a debilitating disease >>

If we did this at the virus' natural rate it would mean the health systems would have to become dedicated to palliative care for many months as well as just a large number of people dying. >>

Sweden's strategy is more nuanced than the headlines make out elsewhere. There was early on a higher acceptance of natural progression of the virus, but in many ways Sweden has ended up in a similar place to much of Europe - low viral transmission due to behavioural changes

Q: So - should I get worried about my friend in Madrid? Or Lyon? Or Sevilla? Other places in Europe?

A: If they are young, likely not. If they are old... then location matters. Spain has strong growth of cases and hospitalisation rates have climbed, in particular in Madrid >>

France the cases have climbed but the hospitalisations have just nudged up. Belgium had a mini 2nd wave outbreak which they tamed by reintroducing local lockdowns and more mask wearing.

Q: Will schools going back increase transmission?

A: We don't know. What we do know is that schools going back is also a big shift in contact patterns post holidays - people moving around, more workplace visits, different visits by different people. It is not just about schools.

Q: Is there any risk to my children?

A: It is low, and it was low in the holidays when your children were somewhere else (likely ... having ice creams, visiting seaside cafes etc). Children need education and peers - they will be happier and safe in schools.

Q: Why are people so concerned about schools reopening?

A: Partly I think it is the unknown and genuine concern, I think unfounded, for risk to children. Partly it is the risk for the staff (though the evidence is thin that teaching staff are more at risk); however >>

The main concern though is that schools and universities going back means lots of potential new and more contact patterns - basically, teenagers + young adults going to pubs and clubs, adults going work place + pubs. More contacts, more at risky locations

Q: So we shouldn't go to pubs? Or clubs?

A: Beer gardens / outside seem fine. Inside - keep the windows open, wash everything obsessively and get back outside. Personally I think it's just best not to go to clubs.

Q: This is not going to work well when it is raining

A: Agreed

Q: So - is there a plan?

A: Broadly yes, though one does have to piece it together. The main plan in most European countries, UK included, is have enough control of viral transmission until there is a good enough vaccine for the at risk (elderly) population.

The development of vaccines have gone far far faster than anyone expected (I have been on a Phase II/III trial for the Oxford vaccine since the summer); more vaccines are being made and at a faster rate than ever expected.

There are now consistent noises of readouts for the vaccine results later this autumn (some partly politically driven in a slightly depressing way) but some vaccines probably will have reasonable data then. BUT >>

even if the vaccines are "good enough" they still have to be made at scale and distributed. This means we've got to navigate at least the autumn and start of winter *without* a vaccine, and might have to do it until spring/early summer 2021.

Q: That sounds depressing. Can we do this?

A: We don't know but a number of countries have consistently kept transmission pretty low - South Korea, Germany and Japan are 3 examples. Two things seem to be important >>

1. Testing. One needs to be able to test a lot and test quickly.

2. Contact tracing, in particular back to sites of high risk infection.

Most European countries have now some mixture of both of these. We need these working at the highest level to keep the infection under control

Q: If Germany, Japan and South Korea can do it, why can't all countries?

A: They probably all can - it is just really far hard to operationalise and organise. Tweeting these things - easy. Doing them - far far harder.

Q: Is UK / France / Spain / Italy / Germany doing this?

A: Nearly all countries have the same fundamental components in their strategy. Operationalising it is complex and improving in most places. The country I know best is the UK: testing depth has come on hugely since May >>

Track and Trace in the UK had a far bumpier summer but seems to be working at some level - still plenty of improvements that can be made. The French testing has improved alot, and track and trace is good.

The Spanish situation is made more complex to track because it is organised mainly region by region. I have to admit I find it hard to track the details, and I think even good Spanish journalists find it hard to keep track.

Q: Are there anything more we can - should - be doing?

A: A surprising thing at first glance is testing sewage to spot specific outbreaks early. This seems to work and more places are using it. This helps find outbreaks quicker. >>

The other thing is to take testing to the next level: More capacity, different technologies (so less single supply chain risk) and more portable formats. And from spit rather than swabs.

(Here I have to *yawn* point out that I am a long established consultant to Oxford Nanopore which makes one of the new, more portable, tests - LamPORE)

Q: So should I be worried?

A: Probably worry a little less than you are now. Organised, motivated and clever people are worried about it in most governments / health organisations in Europe and they are being held to scrutiny by organised and clever people in the press.

Right now, I worry at the moment about my colleagues in Madrid, and I hope Madrid can find a path through this. I'm so impressed by the people who work in the different public health, clinical research + COVID facing research - they work their socks off everyday in my experience

Stepping back, we understand what is going on at far far better level than in March and April. Sadly we can't snap our fingers and make the virus go away, but we do understand far more of the moving parts.

Q: What can I do?

A: Follow health advice: ask for a test if you get the slightest hint of symptom; don't go to a high risk area (pub, club, karoke bar) unless you have to; wear a mask in all medium risks (shops, public transport etc); love yourself and your family

[Blah Blah]

Fantastic post diable rouge.

[JohnL]

Pubs are going to be forced to take names and addresses apparently.

and this time the government means it or there'll be a curfew.

[diable rouge]

I'm only breaking the lockdown rules in a limited and specific way, officer...

[JohnL]

Rule of Six, but Prime Minister, It's the Rule of Six, but Mr Johnson, Rule of Six..

I liked Charmed once but then it was the Rule of Three.