Ignoring lockdown in ED

[ianr]

> I saw Italians were claiming

> COVID-19 had decreased in virility

> and mortality in Italy

Please read, for example, this non-technical report before grasping at any conclusions. https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-losing-its-lethality-in-italy-according-to-doctors-2020-6. From which ..."We need to be exceptionally careful not to create a sense that all of sudden the virus, by its own volition, has now decided to be less pathogenic," he said on Monday. "This is still a killer virus."

.....

"It may not be that the virus itself is becoming less potent," Ryan said. "It may be that we are ? as community and as a global community ? successfully reducing the number, intensity, and frequency of exposure to the virus, which, on the face of it, the virus then looks weaker."

[JohnL]

Thanks for the link ianr.

[Blah Blah]

Which is the point I was making. All that has changed is the number of people infected, and therefore the level of spread. The way the virus behaves once it infects a person, and the percentages of those infected that need ICU care and/or die has not changed. So keeping that R number down is really important, and what happens there is what will drive government policy moving forward. The world is in a much better place of understanding of this virus than it was five months ago. That means navigating a sensible way forward should be possible.

[redpost]

Chunx Wrote:

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> And how will car reliant disbled peopke get

> around.

> Why cant every one use the pavement on the left

> side of the road to walk on? Like cars drive on

> left.

Are you suggesting that pavements become one-way in order to avoid allocate some road space to pedestrians?

[seenbeen]

Blah Blah Wrote:

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> They have stopped listening to the experts it

> seems.

'They' meaning a large portion of the general population didn't listen to anyone from day 1

[woodland]

Covid-19 deaths across Europe yesterday.

United Kingdom - 359

all of the rest of Europe - 324

The figure not going down quickly is widely reported in the press. It isn't a surprise. I feel very thankful that all the people I love are still safe and well and very sad for the 50,000 UK families who can't say the same. I understand the economic reasons to make changes but I wonder how many more elderly people (who seem to have suddenly become not as important as young people for some) will die unnecessarily because of this decision.

[seenbeen]

The death of elderly people will impact the less well-off as this report shows that they provide childcare for their grandchildren as nursery fees are so high, (or affordable places are unavailable in many areas unless you are a single parent....)

https://www.ageuk.org.uk/latest-news/articles/2017/september/five-million-grandparents-take-on-childcare-responsibilities/

[Penguin68]

The 'daily death' figures are rubbish - they show how many reports of death were received centrally up to, I think, 5.00pm on the day previous - irregardless of when these deaths actually occurred. That is why the weekend figures are so low, as far fewer reports of death are made or received over the weekend - for deaths out of hospital these have to be reported to the registrar of births, deaths and marriages. All the death certificates do of course carry the actual date of death, and it would be possible to re-base the death chart to show actual figures on the 'right' dates - probably up to about a week before the current date. The 'weekly average' is an attempt to proxy those figures. This may be important as it is possible that real date anomalies might appear - particularly in care homes where we might expect weekend cover normally to be lower.

The way we collect death data and the way other countries do is known to be different - Belgian figures are reported higher than ours because of the wider definition they have of Covid related deaths, other countries show stricter definitions.

The best interpretation of the statistics will probably be an analysis of excess deaths over a seasonal norm - we know that some people who died with Covid were anyway very seriously ill, and if Covid pneumonia hadn't killed than, another pneumonia (or some other cause) might well have. Such an analysis can only be made once the infection has fallen to normal - whatever that might be - levels.

That it has hit the UK hard is undeniable, but the reasons for that are still very unclear. If there is a genetic predisposition to catch and suffer seriously from Covid amongst some BAME communities, for instance, linked or not to low levels of vitamin D (this is all just speculation) our higher population from this group might hold some clues. Equally, London, where the infection was very bad, like New York (ditto) is an international travel hub and 'global' city. Maybe this was an issue - and it is likely if so that infections came into the city long before anyone was even considering lock down or social distancing. Better and truer information about the disease from China would definitely have helped here.

We simply don't (yet) know enough to start apportioning political blame, satisfying as that might be.

[seenbeen]

It would also have helped if the WHO had put restrictions on passenger air travel instead of letting the virus spread everywhere and TRUSTING that people would be sensible...(like Pauline Cafferkey https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/18/pauline-cafferkey-ebola-nurse-accused-concealing-high-temperature)

https://www.who.int/news-room/articles-detail/updated-who-recommendations-for-international-traffic-in-relation-to-covid-19-outbreak