Ignoring lockdown in ED

[KidKruger]

A bit early, it?s only just summer.

Buxton Spring Wrote:

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> snowflakes

[stlu]

Surely all people have you not heard of risk assessment! This is what we all have to do now. Think about your safety and expect that everyone out there that you don't know and are walking past has covid. I personally put the "walk on the left" phrase to the government weeks ago. I don't see it as a problem. Yes, we will have to cross over the road at some time but then we always do! Cyclists and joggers will pass us but if they have space to do it safely is fine. Regarding parents and children bumping in each other and having a chat on street corners, that is what they do and have always done! Give them a break and just ask them politely to move over to make way for you. No woman/man is the same and we all have our flaws. Let's just try to look out for each other and stop the constant whinging.

[JohnL]

Not all people will objectively calculate risk (people still had unsafe sex in the 1980s) others calculate risk and think 'I'm alright jack' - judging the risk to themselves not society.

Others have financial or other interests - many people still claiming the herd immunity agenda is still there.

[Sally Eva]

The daftest one (heard from one of a group of 3 well-spoken but unrelated people)

"I don't know of anyone who has died of it"

Dismissing the world-wide epidemic and all the news from the last two months with a personal anecdote.

There you go, it can't be happening.

[cactus]

A similarly daft one - 'Well if I get it, I get it. It was obviously meant to be.'

Said by one of my neighbours whilst having a 'socially distanced' bbq in our communal garden a few weeks back.

[Annie5]

beck Wrote:

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> Queuing outside M%S ( near E Dulwich station)

> today - the man behind me in the queue kept moving

> really close - eventually I said that the

> recommended distance was 2 metres and could he

> move back a bit - he then announced that the

> science says that the risk of catching Covid in

> the open air is virtually nil.

>

> what can you say to someone with that attitude?

So how does he think the 37000 victims caught the virus?

[Peckhampam]

From all the evidence I have read, he is not wrong. The risk of catching the virus outside is low. Most of the people who caught the virus caught it int he home, from household members. Inside, including shops carries more risks and crowded venues and public transport as well. Still no excuse for making you feel uncomfortable

[Sally Eva]

The "keep your distance" advice applies outdoors.

There is a Chris Whitty lecture (at Gresham College) https://www.gresham.ac.uk/lectures-and-events/covid-19 in which he says people are probably safe one metre apart but two is recommended because two is better.

I know we are all "using our own judgement" nowadays and damn everyone else but OTOH it's nice to be nice.

[Penguin68]

I think the issue in a queue is that at one metre, if you stand back, or someone else does, you can make contact quite easily - Covid-19 doesn't transmit easily across space in the open, certainly (as also the virus is more likely to 'die' more quickly in the open) - but contact, either person to person or person to object to person is a much more likely transmission route - so maintaining 2 metres in a static queue is a good idea, even if someone passing you (without touching you) only a couple of feet away is probably quite safe. It also allows someone to pass through a queue (as can be necessary on retail streets) whilst still coming no closer than a metre during transit.

And for one individual to nay-say another's very real fears is just rude.

[Earl Aelfheah]

The parties have started already. Blaring music and lots of people in a garden near us. No social distancing going on, but lots of weed smoking. This is going to be a tedious weekend.

[heartblock]

My neighbour has been partying every weekend .... guests and no social isolating since it turned hot and sunny. This country is top of the league for infection and death. The ?official? numbers are not accurate, as far more people died in care homes than the Government has published. The infection is still prevalent and a second wave is due. Before anyone asks... I lecture at a Medical School and I work clinically. Social isolation is only being relaxed so we stop talking about Cummings and start earning money for shareholders. This Government missed the opportunity to suppress early, with no or little care for the elderly or vulnerable. Track and trace can?t work yet as the app doesn?t work yet and testing time turnaround is too slow. We should all isolate for at least two more months, to suppress.

[KidKruger]

Agreed.

[Penguin68]

The ?official? numbers are not accurate, as far more people died in care homes than the Government has published.

The 'official' figures are for those who have died in care homes where Covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. Many people do, sadly and naturally, die in care homes, of many other causes than Covid-19. Indeed of those who died with Covid-19 on their death certificates some, perhaps many, will have their deaths 'brought forward' by Covid-10, but not, perhaps by that many months. Care homes are frequently an end-of-life option. The figures are put together by the ONS - a body independent of government.

And many people argue that social distancing and hand-washing - already urged before any lock-down was instituted, were already bringing down infections. The most likely places recently to catch Covid-19 have been hospitals and care homes, filled with elderly sick and infected by an NHS keen to clear bed-blockers to allow for an influx of novel Covid cases in hospitals.

The mental health problems caused by lock-down and social isolation are considerable. If people stick to hand-washing and social distancing (some evidently weren't, to the latter, well before any relaxation) then a second wave can still be offset.

And far from 'earning money for shareholders' you might consider a re-start of economic activity as earning money for taxation and reducing your (that is government's, but where do you think that's coming from) expenditure on mitigating hardship for those not able to work.

[rachp]

That's ridiculous to boil the need for economic activity down to shareholder profits- people need to work and save their businesses, we can't live on thin air. Overly simplistic arguments like this don't help anyone.

[seenbeen]

Penguin68 Wrote:

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> The ?official? numbers are not accurate, as far

> more people died in care homes than the Government

> has published.

>

> The 'official' figures are for those who have died

> in care homes where Covid-19 is mentioned on the

> death certificate. Many people do, sadly and

> naturally, die in care homes, of many other causes

> than Covid-19. Indeed of those who died with

> Covid-19 on their death certificates some, perhaps

> many, will have their deaths 'brought forward' by

> Covid-10, but not, perhaps by that many months.

> Care homes are frequently an end-of-life option.

> The figures are put together by the ONS - a body

> independent of government.

>

> And many people argue that social distancing and

> hand-washing - already urged before any lock-down

> was instituted, were already bringing down

> infections. The most likely places recently to

> catch Covid-19 have been hospitals and care homes,

> filled with elderly sick and infected by an NHS

> keen to clear bed-blockers to allow for an influx

> of novel Covid cases in hospitals.

>

> The mental health problems caused by lock-down and

> social isolation are considerable. If people stick

> to hand-washing and social distancing (some

> evidently weren't, to the latter, well before any

> relaxation) then a second wave can still be

> offset.

>

> And far from 'earning money for shareholders' you

> might consider a re-start of economic activity as

> earning money for taxation and reducing your (that

> is government's, but where do you think that's

> coming from) expenditure on mitigating hardship

> for those not able to work.

Exactly. And if you look around there are not that many older people out and about in busy areas. As far as I'm concerned it was the WHO and China that missed the opportunity to shut it down in early January.

[Growlybear]

heartblock Wrote:

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> My neighbour has been partying every weekend ....

> guests and no social isolating since it turned hot

> and sunny. This country is top of the league for

> infection and death. The ?official? numbers are

> not accurate, as far more people died in care

> homes than the Government has published. The

> infection is still prevalent and a second wave is

> due. Before anyone asks... I lecture at a Medical

> School and I work clinically. Social isolation is

> only being relaxed so we stop talking about

> Cummings and start earning money for shareholders.

> This Government missed the opportunity to suppress

> early, with no or little care for the elderly or

> vulnerable. Track and trace can?t work yet as the

> app doesn?t work yet and testing time turnaround

> is too slow. We should all isolate for at least

> two more months, to suppress.

I couldn't agree more. And for the third weekend running, my neighbours are having a nice jolly barbecue with their friends, with little children running around and playing closely together. They were all inside the house for some time (presumably because the smoke from their barbecue was a bit overwhelming) and are now all snuggled close together eating. The only thing that's missing is their nanny, who has been working throughout the lockdown.

[Penguin68]

with little children running around and playing closely together.

As described this clearly breaks the guidance, although there is no evidence, world-wide, of children under 10 infecting adults, and generally young children are either symptomless or the impact is very mild on them. So probably the actual risk, as regards the children, is very low - and the positive effects of children socialising may well outweigh any negative Covid-19 impacts.

Which is not to excuse or condone the actions of the adults, who are clearly not 'being alert' - and are putting themselves (as adults) at risk, as they are any more vulnerable people they may be in contact with at work or home.

[Growlybear]

If the risk is that low, then why are schools and unions so concerned about opening primary schools more widely? And why is the guidance they are being given that children should be put into bubbles of 8-10 children per classroom? I?m not convinced that it is entirely wise for the little children next door to now be playing in a substantial swimming pool with various adults from different families coming out of the house, where they have now gone to escape the heat, to check on them. There may not be strong scientific evidence about the role in children transmitting the virus but the general consensus of the scientists involved seems to be that the lockdown (which was never a proper lockdown compared with many countries ) should not be relaxed to this extent yet and it?s too early for schools to be returning.

[JohnL]

seenbeen Wrote:

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>

> Exactly. And if you look around there are not that

> many older people out and about in busy areas. As

> far as I'm concerned it was the WHO and China that

> missed the opportunity to shut it down in early

> January.

But we (the UK) should be a bastion of the WHO - why else are we one of 5 permanent members of the security council - supposedly the only nations (the other 4) that could stand up to China - and when USA withdraws are the creating an alternative ?

[Abe_froeman]

Careful you don't do yourself a repetitive strain injury twitching those curtains...

[Chunx]

And how will car reliant disbled peopke get around.

Why cant every one use the pavement on the left side of the road to walk on? Like cars drive on left.

[Blah Blah]

Let's see where we are in four weeks time. Let's see where we are in the Autumn when other seasonal pathogens and bacteria have everyone coughing and sneezing.

The government has clearly decided that it can switch to a regional model of containment (even though it has no app up and running as yet and is relying entirely on contact tracing compliance). In countries that do operate regional containment, they have community led teams, with experience in epidemics, that focus on local suppression. My worry is that the government are relying on a centralised model.

Bear in mind that it takes around two weeks for any significant increase in that R number to show itself. The risk of infection is currently 1 in 1000, compared to 1 in 40 at the peak. BUT the level of infectiousness and mortality has not changed. While the overall management strategy can change, it can only do so if the public understands that differential, and continues to exercise the things that work, like social distancing and avoidance of enclosed spaces.

[KidKruger]

This "let's see how it goes" and "make it up as we go along" approach really winds me up.

With any pandemic clear conditions for containment, release, testing, tracing, use of an app could be set waaaay in advance - you could virtually take the fundamental precepts for it off the shelf.

Yet we're in this vague, moronic situation where nothing being enacted seems to relate to reality, risk to the population, or a shared effort to make the population feel protected, informed, and involved.

It's as if the exact opposite impression was the objective - in which case the Govt are coming across as experts !

[Blah Blah]

They have stopped listening to the experts it seems.

[JohnL]

I saw Italians were claiming COVID-19 had decreased in virility and mortality in Italy - can't find link maybe they removed it. Anyone see the same ?