Is the corona virus becoming a pandemic

[Sue]

Scientists urge government to enforce social distancing now

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/14/scientists-urge-government-to-enforce-social-distancing-now?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

[malumbu]

I worked one summer in a psychiatric hospital. It was more like a care home before care in the community and the expectation that you would pay to be looked after in later life. It was summer and the staff talked about keeping people alive for many more years due to good nutrition and warmth. But then said that flu would come and take a few out during the winter. When you are old it is a bit of a lottery, as you may escape such diseases or not. I've lost two members of my family through pneumonia so I am not taking this subject likely. Coronavirus may bring forward a large number of deaths, but for many this is near the end of the natural life. The NHS is there to try to prevent this but has a finite capacity. We have the poorest government and the worst Prime Minister in my lifetime but on this issue I am not having a pop, as they are being advised by experts. I expect few of us posting are (experts).

[Blah Blah]

Just some interesting news to share. Whilst a vaccine may take some time, immunologists are carefully testing some of the drugs we currently use to fight other viral infections. It appears that both Remdesivir (used to treat Ebola)and combo Ritonavir/Lopinavir (used to treat HIV) kill the COVID19 virus. And two anti-inflammatories - hydroxychloroquine and tocilizumab seem to help reduce lung inflammation (the latter has just been licensed for use in China on COVID19 patients). These need further testing of course, but it might just be that our way out of the immediate crisis is with already approved drugs.

Also promising are aspects of the work done towards a vaccine for SARS CoV. For those of you interested in the science of that and the stage it is at...

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.987958v1.full.pdf

[TE44]

Conclusions

LAV vaccines have provided ideal protection from several major diseases, but have not lived up to their potential due to limited applicability and safety concerns. Advances in molecular biology have opened the door to novel approaches to viral attenuation and may lead to a new generation of safer LAVs (Table 2). Though replication-defective LAVs have encountered some problems, this approach to attenuation is on the cusp of providing safe, effective vaccines for several diseases. Several other approaches to attenuation are poised to overcome other problems specifically associated with vaccine design for RNA and DNA viruses. For many RNA viruses where high mutation rates limit the efficacy of vaccines, altering the replication fidelity can attenuate the entire virus population, leading to population collapse without mutation of key immunogenic epitopes. Codon deoptimization provides a systematic means by which to attenuate any virus. By substituting synonymous codons throughout a viral genome, there is no loss of immunogenicity and little risk of reversion to wild type. Zinc finger nucleases and miRNAs can be used to control the replication of DNA and RNA viruses, respectively. By controlling viral replication temporally or spatially, a strong, natural immune response can be elicited before the virus is eliminated. These may be particularly useful approaches for designing vaccines against persistent or latent viruses, as ZFNs and miRNAs lead to the elimination of all viral DNA or RNA, thus preventing chronic infection.

Blah Blah you seem to have understanding of scientific language, can you explain in laymans terms the safety concerns of live vaccines, sorry I cannot put up whole link, i have phone and don't know how to. It would be interesting to hear in laymans terms an explaination on antigen shift/drift.

[TE44]

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2883798/

From this link.

[teddyboy23]

Te44 google flu deaths 2019.

[Thunderblue600]

Well done to Mike Coupe, that there has been and no doubt ( despite such re-assurance by the Chief Exec ), and continue to be panic buying by a sizeable part of the UK population is a sad reflection of 'it's every man for himself.'

Message from Sainsbury's Chief Executive Mike Coupe

'Which brings me onto a request. Please think before you buy and only buy what you and your family need. If we all do this then we can make sure we have enough for everyone. And please help elderly and vulnerable friends, family and neighbours with their shopping if you can.'

Message in full:

Dear Michael,

You will have seen that, due to the ongoing uncertainty around the full impact of Coronavirus, supermarkets have been much busier than usual and customers are choosing to stock up.

I wanted to personally reassure you that we have more food and other essential items coming to us from manufacturers and into our warehouses and distribution centres. If we all shop just for the food that we and our families need, there will be enough for everyone.

I also wanted to let you know that at Sainsbury's, we are working really hard to ensure this remains the case. Over the past two weeks we have:

- Ordered more stock of essential items from our suppliers

- Put more capacity into our warehouses and

- Set limits on a small number of items, including some cleaning products, soap and pain relief. This is a precautionary measure - if everyone shops normally, there will be enough for everyone.

There are gaps on shelves because of increased demand, but we have new stock arriving regularly and we're doing our best to keep shelves stocked. Our store colleagues are working tirelessly and doing the best job they can.

Which brings me onto a request. Please think before you buy and only buy what you and your family need. If we all do this then we can make sure we have enough for everyone. And please help elderly and vulnerable friends, family and neighbours with their shopping if you can.

I wanted to take this opportunity to thank you for your continued support and to thank our colleagues who are all working incredibly hard to ensure we can continue to serve our customers well.

Best wishes

Mike

[JohnL]

teddyboy23 Wrote:

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> Te44 google flu deaths 2019.

Is there a definitive source - the one I posted earlier says usually it's only 600 in the UK but rose to 10,000 in the last epidemic in 2008-9 and can go higher

https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/influenza-flu

[Blah Blah]

TE44 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Blah Blah you seem to have understanding of

> scientific language, can you explain in laymans

> terms the safety concerns of live vaccines, sorry

> I cannot put up whole link, i have phone and don't

> know how to. It would be interesting to hear in

> laymans terms an explaination on antigen

> shift/drift.

In simple terms, when the virus mutates in a small way (ie a small change to the genetic makeup), that is referred to as antigenic drift. When the change to the genetic makeup is major, that is referred to as antigenic shift. Antigenic shift is the mutation that usually leads to pandemic and happens less frequently than antigenic drift.

What defines a minor vs a major mutation is this. Drift (minor) mutation naturally happens over a long time to known forms of virus, in an evolutionary way. Shift (major) mutation is when two strains of the same virus, or mutation between strains of two different viruses happens (so a major transformation), and the result is a mix of surface antigens from both strains.

Influenza is the best known virus that works in this way. Drift happens in all influenza types, but shift only happens in influenza A, because that one infects animals too and it is that crossover between humans and animals that gives antigens the conditions for major realignment. A virus that lives only in ones species has less opportunity to rewrite itself in any major way, if that makes sense.

I will come back to you to answer your question on vaccines. That answer depends on what the vaccine is trying to do, so needs some context, and right now I am being called to peel potatoes :D

[Thunderblue600]

If this becomes a reality I do hope we will all do our bit and offer to get shopping for our elderly neighbours.

"The Health Secretary has said elderly people will be asked to self-isolate for as long as four months in the battle against coronavirus.

Over 70s will be asked to stay at home, without guests or visitors while the virus is expected to infect as much as 80 per cent of the UK population over the coming months.

Regular doorstep deliveries of groceries, medicine and other supplies will be sent to the elderly during the quarantine expected "in the coming weeks".

https://www.mylondon.news/news/health/london-coronavirus-governments-full-plans-17927526

While the world continues to come up with plans to tackle the outbreak, the UK government's new plans could see schools and pubs close, the army called in to stock supermarket shelves and all over-70s may have to self-isolate for four months.

These are the plans that could be put in place:

Self-isolation for the elderly

People in Britain aged over 70 are likely to be instructed to stay in strict isolation as part of a planned response to Covid-19.

A government source has told ITV's political editor Robert Peston that the policy could be announced within the next five to 20 days and would last four months, reports PlymouthLive.

The source said chief medical officer Chris Whitty and the chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance are, however, waiting for the best time to roll out measures that will obstruct people's lives.

The government is concerned that some older people could die at home from neglect after they are quarantined, so want to start the self-isolation as late as possible.

[teddyboy23]

.

[TE44]

Thanks Blah Blah, what worries me is a mutation happening artificially through mixing live vaccines. Heres a link regarding flumist (nasal spray)

https://www.healio.com/infectious-disease/influenza/news/online/%7Ba519fce5-639b-4649-92b7-f1f8ff265443%7D/genetic-mutation-in-flumist-could-be-altered-to-restore-effectiveness

I do not know the outcome to AstraZenekas tests regarding these mutations, nor can I see what virus gentically mutated. I believe

This to be important news and I also believe parents should be made aware of information, although it may be difficult to understand scientifically, language can be simplified not used as a way to allow companies to hide behind.

Teddyboy23 I find different figures depending on where you look, the stats are also used in a way that can confuse.

[Alan Medic]

This is important but I don't believe it's common knowledge. I know that two younger people died in France possibly because of this. It's worth being aware of.

The head of infectious disease in Cork University hospital has released a statement to doctors. They have 4 young people in serious condition from COVID19. None have underlying conditions. All were taking non/steroidal anti inflammatory drugs. France has issued a similar advisory. Many Bective players take anti-inflammatories for injuries. They are what I mostly prescribe for rugby related injuries. They include difene, neurofen (ibuprofen) and vimovo. There are many others. All players should stop taking these drugs immediately and not take them for the duration of the COVID19 crisis. There is significant evidence that they exacerbate COVID19.

Dr. Tim

[dbboy]

Currently and based on published numbers of cases of those infected with the virus vs mortality rate, comparing those rates in UK, France, Spain and Italy, it's between 2% - 7%. Just shows how lethal this virus is

[Misslayton]

Hello,

I have set up a Covid 19 Mutual Response group for Dulwich. If you think you can offer any help for our community during this difficult time, please post and share.

https://m.facebook.com/groups/636485183836929?group_view_referrer=profile_browser

Thanks, Clare

[seenbeen]

Alan Medic Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> This is important but I don't believe it's common

> knowledge. I know that two younger people died in

> France possibly because of this. It's worth being

> aware of.

>

> The head of infectious disease in Cork University

> hospital has released a statement to doctors. They

> have 4 young people in serious condition from

> COVID19. None have underlying conditions. All were

> taking non/steroidal anti inflammatory drugs.

> France has issued a similar advisory. Many Bective

> players take anti-inflammatories for injuries.

> They are what I mostly prescribe for rugby related

> injuries. They include difene, neurofen

> (ibuprofen) and vimovo. There are many others. All

> players should stop taking these drugs immediately

> and not take them for the duration of the COVID19

> crisis. There is significant evidence that they

> exacerbate COVID19.

> Dr. Tim

My son and I were talking about this as we know people on all kinds of anti-inflammatories for crohn's and ulcerative colitis and it occurred to me that they all interfere with the immune response, as do steroids. What about people who take 75mg of aspirin daily? Aspirin is also a nsaid.

[seenbeen]

I'm surprised that the NHS hasn't put out a warning re the effect of alcohol on the immune system

https://www.recoveryways.com/rehab-blog/how-does-alcohol-affect-your-immune-system/

[DulwichFox]

Over 70's to be forced to Self-Isolate for 4 Months.

How are people who live on their own supposed to get food. ??

I am approaching 70 but get out most days.

I have regular essential hospital appointments . 20 + over the last 2 years.

[JohnL]

seenbeen Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Alan Medic Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > This is important but I don't believe it's common

> > knowledge. I know that two younger people died in

> > France possibly because of this. It's worth being

> > aware of.

> >

> > The head of infectious disease in Cork University

> > hospital has released a statement to doctors.

> > They have 4 young people in serious condition from

> > COVID19. None have underlying conditions. All were

> > taking non/steroidal anti inflammatory drugs.

> > France has issued a similar advisory. Many

> > players take anti-inflammatories for injuries.

> > They are what I mostly prescribe for rugby

> > related injuries. They include difene, neurofen

> > (ibuprofen) and vimovo. There are many others.

> > All players should stop taking these drugs

> > immediately and not take them for the duration of the

> > COVID19 crisis. There is significant evidence that

> > they exacerbate COVID19.

> > Dr. Tim

>

> My son and I were talking about this as we know

> people on all kinds of anti-inflammatories for

> crohn's and ulcerative colitis and it occurred to

> me that they all interfere with the immune

> response, as do steroids. What about people who

> take 75mg of aspirin daily? Aspirin is also a

> nsaid.

Cytokine storms are what made Spanish Flu a killer amongst the young and now being identified here - as a "wrong" immune system rather than an over powerful one - and the immune response won't stop.

https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/the-coronavirus-turns-deadly-when-it-leads-to-cytokine-storm-identifying-this-immune-response-is-key-to-patients-survival-report.html

https://inews.co.uk/news/health/existing-drugs-may-have-key-role-to-play-coronavirus-treatment-2451370

Strangely the immune system may need to be suppressed somewhat it seems in these articles.

[JohnL]

Although can't find the link to NSID's only this saying the Cork story isn't true - there is advice in France and Ireland to prefer Paracetamol

https://www.thejournal.ie/ibuprofen-cuh-coronavirus-whatsapp-5047311-Mar2020/

[DulwichFox]

Looks like The U.K. got out of Europe at the right time.

Free Movement now very restricted in many countries..

[seenbeen]

JohnL wrote

'Strangely the immune system may need to be suppressed somewhat it seems in these articles'.

So the drug Tocilizumab prevents the cytokine storms- the '-mab' part means 'monoclonal antibody' and there are various drugs like this and one, 'Infliximab' is used to treat Crohn's and UC. But it works on a different receptor on the cell but prevents a specific chemical in the body from attacking its own cells. Some aspects of the immune system is suppressed in people with auto-immune conditions like rheumatoid arthritis.

Paracetomol reduces pain and fever but is not an anti-inflammatory, the anti-inflammatories interfere with the immune response and you really do need an immune response to deal with an infection

[pk]

DulwichFox Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Looks like The U.K. got out of Europe at the right

> time.

>

> Free Movement now very restricted in many

> countries..

Wtf?

[JohnL]

seenbeen Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> JohnL wrote

> 'Strangely the immune system may need to be

> suppressed somewhat it seems in these articles'.

>

> So the drug Tocilizumab prevents the cytokine

> storms- the '-mab' part means 'monoclonal

> antibody' and there are various drugs like this

> and one, 'Infliximab' is used to treat Crohn's and

> UC. But it works on a different receptor on the

> cell but prevents a specific chemical in the body

> from attacking its own cells. Some aspects of the

> immune system is suppressed in people with

> auto-immune conditions like rheumatoid arthritis.

>

> Paracetomol reduces pain and fever but is not an

> anti-inflammatory, the anti-inflammatories

> interfere with the immune response and you really

> do need an immune response to deal with an

> infection

It takes Doctors a while to realise whats going on and how to treat different aspects I guess.

Some of it might appear contradictory to us laymen.

[fishbiscuits]

DulwichFox Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I am approaching 70 but get out most days.

> I have regular essential hospital appointments .

> 20 + over the last 2 years.

Well I have a feeling that those hospital appointments may face some interruption...

If you are ill and/or feel you need to self-isolate, and don't have anybody to bring your food and supplies, why not post on here. In fact maybe we could have a dedicated thread, perhaps even pinned to the top of the forum?