Is the corona virus becoming a pandemic

[ianr]

> how many people in Southwark have it?

11 confirmed to date.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

[ETA The BBC site will have got the data each day from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/. See the About The Data link at the top of that page for an account of its composition. These are cases confirmed by a precise lab test, which amounts to two sets of people: patients admitted to hospital plus medical workers.]

13 twenty four hours later.

28 when Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 15 March

33 when Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 16 March

58 when Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 17 March

70 Update of 18 March

82 Figures last updated 17:00 GMT, 19 March

110 Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 20 March

134 Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 21 March

139 Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 22 March

154 Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 23 March

181 Figures last updated 24 March

209 Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 25 March

253 Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 26 March

290 Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 27 March

319 Figures last updated 28 March

365 Figures last updated 09:00 BST, 29 March

368 Figures last updated 30 March

415 Figures last updated 31 March

474 Figures last updated 1 April

516 Figures last updated 16:00 GMT, 02 April

566 Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 03 April

586 Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 04 April

648 Figures last updated 09:00 BST, 5 April

685 Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 06 April

710 Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 7 April

755 Figures last updated 8 April

794 Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 09 April

826 Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 10 April

867 Figures last updated 11 April

895 Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 12 April

934 Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 13 April

957 Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 14 April

972 Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 15 April

1001 Figures last updated 16 April

1026 Figures last updated 17 April

1053 Specimen date 2020-04-17

1075 Figures last updated 19 April

1089 Figures last updated 20 April

1105 Specimen date 2020-04-20

1105 Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 22 April

1126 Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 23 April

Daily increments: 2, 15, 5, 25, 12, 12, 28, 24, 5, 15, 27, 28, 44, 37, 29, 46, 3, 47, 59, 42, 50, 20, 62, 37, 25, 32, 45, 39, 41, 28, 39, 23, 15, 29, 25, 27, 22, 14, 16, 0, 21,

Note: On 18 April I downloaded the ?revised-format UK cumulative confirmed cases file from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#local-authorities. The series apparently has the same endpoint as the

single figures reported each day on the BBC, but I'm not sure how they reconcile on a day-by-day basis.

In any case a moving average, over several days, is a better way of making any apparent trends more obvious.

I'll see about preparing a graph showing this.

[Alan Medic]

What I picked up from Bojo yesterday:

a) Don't go on a cruise

b) Wash my hands

c) Some of us will die

I wasn't planning on a) or c). I can do b).

If the plan is to flatten the 'sombrero', which science suggests is the best way to minimise the impact on the health services, why are other countries closing schools, stopping large events etc, when their aim is the same as that of the UK?

[JohnL]

I picked up that only hospital cases will be tested going forward - so we won't know the cases in the country at large.

60% is apparently required for herd immunity.

[TE44]

Johnl, 60%, of whom? The worst flu with that very bad cough, was the worst flu I have ever seen, there wasn't many people who escaped it including young. Most people I know, tested positive for infuenza A, i don not know which sub type, but it would be interesting if we were given information on the type that is prevalent, in more laymans terms.

[JohnL]

60% of the UK population - Sky News got it off Sir Patrick Valance

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-millions-of-britons-will-need-to-contract-covid-19-for-herd-immunity-11956793

Also Valance thinks 5,000 - 10,000 people are infected already - as we have 10 fatalities and 60% of the population is 35m or so - a quick calculation can be made.

There is a feeling some people are being sacrificed here - whether there is another option as Ireland's plans (and those of all the other countries with differing plans to the UK) could create a second wave apparently or be too strict to follow for the length of time needed (I'm no expert)

[TE44]

It would be very unlikely, natural immunity

will be given a chance,its more likely, especially with work already done with this virus that a vaccine will be developed, where the % for herd immunity is much higher for intake. Happy days. Would be interestin to know which subtype of influenza A virus was used in this years vaccine.

[JohnL]

TE44 Wrote:

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> It would be very unlikely, natural immunity

> will be given a chance,its more likely, especially

> with work already done with this virus that a

> vaccine will be developed, where the % for herd

> immunity is much higher for intake. Happy days.

> Would be interestin to know which subtype of

> influenza A virus was used in this years vaccine.

I don't understand why they aren't holding out for a vaccine - it wasn't even mentioned.

edit: maybe they feel they can't rely on that 100% so have created a plan without it as worst case.

[TE44]

That depends how you see things Johnl. No vaccine is 100%.

[TE44]

https://www.pirbright.ac.uk/news/2020/01/pirbright%E2%80%99s-livestock-coronavirus-research-%E2%80%93-your-questions-answered

There is vaccines for the coronavirus being used on animals, not this strain, although there has been much research around the

Coronavirus.

[JohnL]

TE44 Wrote:

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> That depends how you see things Johnl. No vaccine

> is 100%.

I mean we expect that a vaccine will be developed in a few months (or maybe more) - but the government seem not to have incorporated this into their plan maybe as it's not a certainty.

[diable rouge]

Beeb reporting that China saying only 8 new cases reported...

[Earl Aelfheah]

The 'herd immunity' strategy could kill around half a million people from what I understand.

[dbboy]

This takes the decision out of the hands of Government making any decree.

'This decision has not been taken lightly'

Statement from the EFL: "The FA, Premier League, EFL and Barclays FA Women?s Super League and FA Women?s Championship have collectively agreed to postpone the professional game in England until 3 April at the earliest.

"This action, which will be kept under constant review, has been taken due to the increasing numbers of Clubs taking steps to isolate their players and staff because of the COVID-19 virus.

"The postponements include all matches in the Championship, League One and League Two, as well as all Academy and youth team fixtures.

"In addition, clubs are being advised to suspend indefinitely all non-essential activities which include, but are not limited to, player appearances, training ground visits and fan meetings.

"Whilst the EFL Board has continued to take the advice and guidance offered by the Government and its health advisors, emerging developments mean now is the time to implement football?s contingency plans in response to the crisis.

"A further update on these plans will be given post an EFL Board Meeting next week.

"This decision has not been taken lightly, but the EFL must prioritise the health and well-being of players, staff and supporters while also acknowledging the Government?s national efforts in tackling this outbreak."

"The suspension of elite football in England means the England friendlies against Italy and Denmark, scheduled for 27 March and 31 March respectively, will not take place".

[ianr]

TE44 Wrote:at https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/forum/read.php?20,2096178#msg-2101480

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> Blah Blah I am aware there is planning around

> viruses an different scenarios. I d nt trust the

> Who nor the CDC, The institutional organisatios

> involved with our health need to be more

> transparent and more answerable for there action.

> The one thing I feel we can be absolutely sure of,

> from these organisations and others connected with

> them is we will not be told the truth, maybe

> little snippets thrown in.

Some snippets here: https://www.who.int/influenza/vaccines/virus/en/.

[TE44]

Can't find any confirmed cases of people dying without underlying health issues. It may be an added threat, althought this reality of dying from flu if you are in that situation, seems a much bigger threat.

[JohnL]

TE44 Wrote:

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> Can't find any confirmed cases of people dying

> without underlying health issues. It may be an

> added threat, althought this reality of dying from

> flu if you are in that situation, seems a much

> bigger threat.

Medics in China died - and maybe in Italy.

In Italy anyone over a certain age is being left to die as there are not enough resources to treat them.

And this isn't just flu it's worse even if you're young and fit if you're unlucky enough to get it into your lungs.

"He also stressed the virus does not just affect old people, warning that younger people "end up intubated in intensive care" or "worse in ECMO (a machine for the worst cases, which extracts the blood, re-oxygenates it and returns it to the body, waiting for the organism, hopefully, heal your lungs)."

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-italian-doctor-says-fighting-covid-19-outbreak-is-like-war-11954229

[TE44]

JohnL, do you have any confirmed stats of people who have died without underlying health problems.when you are in a life or death situation,if you are someone with health problems, often a lung condition from the flu, I don't believe you can say itnot as bad as coronavirus, looking at the 10 people who have died to the people who have died with flu does not make any sense, certainly not for the patients.

[JohnL]

The Lancet

"191 patients (135 from Jinyintan Hospital and 56 from Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital) were included in this study, of whom 137 were discharged and 54 died in hospital. 91 (48%) patients had a comorbidity" so 58% didn't is how I read that ??

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext

my view this is as if we had never seen flu before then this year flu developed and we all got it for the first time. This could become like an additional flu after a few years similar but different to current flu.

[TE44]

Johnl thanks for that, although its not really clear in stating the number of people who were healthy. One of the doctors in Wuhan that died, the reason for death was heat atteck brought on by overwork.

Edited to say of the 51 who died I cannot see what group they were in, whether they had underlying conditions, sorry on phone and not easy to go back, does it give this info.

[JohnL]

TE44 Wrote:

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> Johnl thanks for that, although its not really

> clear in stating the number of people who were

> healthy. One of the doctors in Wuhan that died,

> the reason for death was heat atteck brought on by

> overwork.

> Edited to say of the 51 who died I cannot see what

> group they were in, whether they had underlying

> conditions, sorry on phone and not easy to go

> back, does it give this info.

No - not the clearest link sorry - but years since I was in Uni so no good with these things- maybe someone can provide something better :)

I notice Wales versus Scotland is now off - 24 hours before being played with the Scottish already in Cardiff. Should have been called off earlier IMHO

[Blah Blah]

Lots of points.

Trying to go for herd immunity is incredibly risky with a virus that has no vaccine or known cure. SARS CoV is also a coronavirus and we still have no working vaccine for that! Even if a working vaccine is developed, we are at least 18 months away from human use. It has to go through animal testing first, before human trials can begin.

The other danger is that once a virus is established, it can mutate. This is what happened with Spanish Flu. The second and third waves simply learned how to get around any herd immunity from the first wave. Those waves were also more deadly because, where the first wave only killed younger people, the second wave began to kill other age groups and the final wave would kill anyone.

NO OTHER COUNTRY is going for herd immunity. The very idea that you let 60% of the population get infected with a 3% mortality rate in play is crazy. Any idea that you can stop the most vulnerable becoming infected in that scenario is also crazy.

One source says they are planning for 300k deaths! This is almost eugenic in thinking. Remember when Boris said one theory is that you just let it go through until there is no-one left to infect and take it on the chin? Well THAT is what I think is happening here. The question is why? Suddenly the elderly and ill have become expendable?

We just don't know enough about this virus yet to take that risk.

[Earl Aelfheah]

I think it's more a case of 'we tried containment and it failed'.

[siousxiesue]

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/11/telegraph-journalist-says-coronavirus-cull-elderly-benefit-economy-12383907/

[ianr]

.

[dbboy]

If the expectation is that 300,000 will die from the virus from a population of some 66,000,000, then they are expecting a conservative mortality rate 0.5% of the population, I suppose that is "their" worst case scenario, if you then double that to get a more accurate figure, that makes this really scary.

As Boris said, "many families will lose loved one's before their time". Well isn't that ironic with the health minister and probably other cabinet ministers being infected, including Boris, remind me who's next in the chain of command? Step up Larry "the" Cat