Is the corona virus becoming a pandemic

[intexasatthe moment]

I could well be incorrect but I think compared to seasonal flu , Covid19 is thought to have a longer incubation period and a greater nos of infections where symptoms are v mild or practically non existent .Which makes it spread more .

And we have vaccinations for seasonal flu.

[JohnL]

intexasatthe moment Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I could well be incorrect but I think compared to

> seasonal flu , Covid19 is thought to have a longer

> incubation period and a greater nos of infections

> where symptoms are v mild or practically non

> existent .Which makes it spread more .

Which tends to make young people who feel invincible anyway rather blase at first. Some groups will have a possibility of a severe infection at 10% and a hospital doctor was today saying those with a severe infection admitted to hospital need to be anesthetized, put on a ventilator and fed through tubes.

This week (in contrast to the earlier interviews) Sky News interviewed two young men looking after their Grandmother in Italy - and they looked traumatized. One wouldn't even speak when prompted by Kay Burley.

[intexasatthe moment]

Mmm - seems this

"a greater nos of infections where symptoms are v mild or practically non existent .Which makes it spread more ."

is incorrect .It is thought that there is less transmission of Covid 19 before symptoms appear than there is in flu.

But it is thought that a higher perecentage with Covid go on to develop more severe symptoms .

sitrep 46 https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/

And I guess the most vunerable groups are able to have some protection from seasonal flu by virtue of vaccination .

[JohnL]

intexasatthe moment Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Mmm - seems this

> "a greater nos of infections where symptoms are v

> mild or practically non existent .Which makes it

> spread more ."

>

> is incorrect .It is thought that there is less

> transmission of Covid 19 before symptoms appear

> than there is in flu.

A guy in a white suit from the WHO just on Sky News just basically answered "don't know" to this and questions of herd immunity/virus mutation and a few other questions. The virus is too new.

Obviously a lot of work going on.

https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus?dgcid=kr_pop-up_tlcoronavirus20

I also thought the incubation period was 5 days but I've been told it is now 3-14 days - maybe this is still "don't know".

[JohnL]

People who want to be tested have been saying in the UK they won't test you unless you have recently traveled to a high risk country.

a shortage of testing resources ?

The Chancellor was asked if he had been tested - he said no in line with guidelines - but he has been in meetings with those infected (the Health minister and possibly one more unnamed cabinet minister)

[Blah Blah]

If someone has been in contact with a person carrying the virus, an assessment is made on testing based on how long and how close that contact was with the infected person. We passed the 'only testing those with links to travel' a couple of weeks ago. Having said that, testing anyone who has had even the most fleeting contact with an infected person would make more sense, so yes, I think cost is a factor. And that is a concern.

[Blah Blah]

Ireland closing schools now and banning gatherings of more than 100 people.

[seenbeen]

JohnL Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> People who want to be tested have been saying in

> the UK they won't test you unless you have

> recently traveled to a high risk country.

>

> a shortage of testing resources ?

>

> The Chancellor was asked if he had been tested -

> he said no in line with guidelines - but he has

> been in meetings with those infected (the Health

> minister and possibly one more unnamed cabinet

> minister)

Those that have been near Nadine Dorries are in self isolation.

Denmark has shut schools etc and as well as the above re: Ireland- they have banned OUTDOOR gatherings of 500 or more..St Patrick's day is only next Tuesday

I personally am beginning to feel like there are sniper rifles at every turn- probably due to the stupid 24/7 media coverage

[JohnL]

seenbeen Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> JohnL Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > People who want to be tested have been saying

> in

> > the UK they won't test you unless you have

> > recently traveled to a high risk country.

> >

> > a shortage of testing resources ?

> >

> > The Chancellor was asked if he had been tested

> -

> > he said no in line with guidelines - but he has

> > been in meetings with those infected (the

> Health

> > minister and possibly one more unnamed cabinet

> > minister)

>

> Those that have been near Nadine Dorries are in

> self isolation.

> Denmark has shut schools etc and as well as the

> above re: Ireland- they have banned OUTDOOR

> gatherings of 500 or more..St Patrick's day is

> only next Tuesday

> I personally am beginning to feel like there are

> sniper rifles at every turn- probably due to the

> stupid 24/7 media coverage

I felt safe until the last few days - now wondering how vulnerable I am. Realising you're the oldest in the office AND the pub doesn't help lol.

[JohnL]

Italy

"Older or sicker patients are being given inadequate care and left to die so doctors and nurses can focus on patients who are younger and more likely to survive.

Patients who have a limited number of ?life years? left, even if they could survive, should be left to die, they have been told."

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/coronavirus-grim-advice-italian-doctors-21679627

I suppose this is always done to a lesser extent but I'm not sure a vulnerable person stands much chance at all over there once in the system. I always thought if you had a huge motivation to live this trumped age.

[Angelina]

Italy's health system is a shambles anyway.

Maybe this will remind people here of why the NHS is important.

[Blah Blah]

This is the sign of a healthcare system being overwhelmed. Decisions are then made on who to save first. Italy has 12,470 declared cases. And it has a mortality rate twice that of elsewhere. Why? Because it just does not have enough ICU beds. On those case figures it needs at least 3000 ICU beds. It doesn't have them.

Here is an article from the USA perspective. It is going to be dire.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/upshot/coronavirus-biggest-worry-hospital-capacity.html

For the record, the UK has around 7000 ICU beds, which is about 1 in 1000 people. We would need ten times that in a full outbreak. How much can be scaled up is limited, not just on facilities and equipment, but also medical staff.

And to be blunt, that ICU treatment requires anaesthetists, ventilators, tubes, for every person admitted with serious symptoms, who can recover. Not just those in high risk groups with underlying conditions.

[edcam]

This is nonsense. Their healthcare system is often ranked as one of the best in the world. Upon what do you base this statement?

Their system is overwhelmed but it's looking likely that that will be the case everywhere soon.

Angelina Wrote:

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> Italy's health system is a shambles anyway.

>

> Maybe this will remind people here of why the NHS

> is important.

[dbboy]

Which is what the doctor from Italy was effectively saying.

[intexasatthe moment]

More views on whether virus spread when people asymptomatic or in early stages of illness .

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/12/coronavirus-most-infections-spread-by-people-yet-to-show-symptoms-scientists

[JohnL]

Just been for a dental appointment - obviously they have up signs saying any symptoms then don't come in ring 111.

I had to refill out one of the health forms (how many of these illnesses have you had, do you drink/smoke etc) - I have to say I made myself look as healthy as possible without lying just in case Cummings is making a list (I'm joking) :)

[JohnL]

Boris and CMO speaking now

Seems like many of us are going to get it - we need to slow it down to help the NHS. We need to protect the vulnerable. Some will die - Boris said many of us will lose a loved one.

If you have a cough/temperature do not leave your home for a week (how this will be enforced I know not - probably not enforced).

[Luana]

People probably do not know that Lombardy and Veneto, the 2 regions mostly affected by the virus in Italy, have one of the best health system in Europe.

The issue is there are not enough beds in intensive care for all the patients which have respiratory problems. Doctors are describing the situation as "dramatic" - this is why all Italy has been closed down, schools, bars, restaurants, shops etc and all gathering are forbidden.

Now have a look at this article - Italy has double the ICU beds per inhabitants than UK.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-can-the-nhs-cope-with-the-increase-in-demand-11953882

Nevertheless people keep going out clubbing and to big sport events as if the virus was an Italian problem only. The government is not responding adequately either compared to other European countries - we should all start cooperating and taking it (much) more seriously.

[dbboy]

"As of 9am on 12 March 2020, 29,764 people have been tested in the UK, of which 29,174 were confirmed negative and 590 were confirmed as positive. Eight patients who tested positive for COVID-19 have died."

This is just the beginning, the reported peak of the infection is anticipated to be in two to four weeks time with potentially a further twelve weeks thereafter. Boris today, levelled with the public and said that many will die prematurely, although he didn't put it that bluntly.

Boris Johnson actually said: "I must level with you, I must level with the British public, many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time"

The UK are not reacting quickly enough and much tougher sanctions need to be implemented by the Government NOW, see what Italy have done. We don't get a second chance with the consequences of a pandemic.

[Thunderblue600]

Well I certainly got a debate going!

Question have asked a number of people - How come Italy copped it first big time in Europe - then fired off the infection all over Europe.

One theory is they are a very touchy feely population.

[marie.r]

Higher rates of testing.

[marie.r]

Are there any plans or is anyone interested in establishing a local volunteer group to help the elderly and vulnerable?

People might not be able to pick up prescriptions, they may need food deliveries or donations, some people on zero hour contracts will lose income. Health visitors may also not be able to make usual visits due to being needed elsewhere in NHS. Just a thought.

[Blah Blah]

Sounds like a good idea marie, but there would have to be guidelines in place as the virus can be passed on through touching things as well as other people. Not quite sure how it could be guaranteed that volunteers are free from infection, but in principle, the idea of local communities helping others unable to get out and about is a good idea.

[gromit316]

how many people in Southwark have it?

[ianr]

> how many people in Southwark have it?

Eleven confirmed cases so far. That's bound to be a bit less than the actual figure.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274