Is the corona virus becoming a pandemic

[Blah Blah]

Just to bring some sanity back into this discussion, the danger around viral mutations that have no vaccine is well understood. Fortunately, we are in a place to be able to develop vaccines relatively quickly. Every previous pandemic now has a vaccine or an effective form of treatment/ containment. Ebola is a case in point. We don't have to wait for 100 million people to die anymore to understand the potential danger. We should be thankful for that. There are very highly qualified people monitoring these risks all year round. A success story would be that COVID19 never gets to a place where it does its potential worst. That does not mean the risk was never real, it just means that we have genuinely found a way to prevent a global pandemic this time. So let's all do our part to help that outcome.

[Trinnydad]

Blah Blah Wrote:

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> Just to bring some sanity back into this

> discussion,...???... So let's all

> do our part to help that outcome.

OK, so what are your constructive suggestions in the current situation?

[Blah Blah]

To follow the advice being given. And to be aware of who the most vulnerable groups are.

[JohnL]

Lombardy is being Quarantined.

[Blah Blah]

Italy is a hotspot. But interesting to see them take the same measures (essentially) as China.

[Birdynamnam]

This is a really informative website, which put the situation and the attendant disproportionate panic into perspective for me. Obviously, there will be many more cases but as of today, the UK has 3.1 cases per 1 million people. I hope anyone feeling particularly anxious might find it helpful.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[JohnL]

Birdynamnam Wrote:

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> This is a really informative website, which put

> the situation and the attendant disproportionate

> panic into perspective for me. Obviously, there

> will be many more cases but as of today, the UK

> has 3.1 cases per 1 million people. I hope anyone

> feeling particularly anxious might find it

> helpful.

> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Someone like me who goes on buses, tube, and many different pubs in my usual week would be a super spreader if infected and I didn't change my ways. Working from home changes everything as I found last and this week - instead of finishing work and popping in the pub then bus, tube another pub etc. you feel like staying in.

[intexasatthe moment]

super spreaders are people who shed more of the virus than others ,they're not people who have more contact than others .

[JohnL]

intexasatthe moment Wrote:

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> super spreaders are people who shed more of the

> virus than others ,they're not people who have

> more contact than others .

Sounds like dandruff, yuck.

[Blah Blah]

China for the second day running has had minimal new cases. The message in this is that lockdowns and containment are working, and working relatively quickly. If this approach is repeated for every emerging hotspot, then there is a real possibility that a genuine global pandemic can be avoided. That of course is easier said than done, but this is exactly how Ebola was defeated in Africa. It means directing resources to the developing world to help them, along with developed nations taking unprecedented measures themselves, and a public willing to do as told. This doesn't mean that there can't and won't be repeated waves, but at least there is pathway to effective containment in evidence now. There should be a tested and working vaccine within 18 months.

[JohnL]

I've been reading too much about 1918 now and have convinced myself (against apparent logic) of a possible second wave.

Anyway nothing wrong with being cautious - although not panicking.

[Blah Blah]

A second wave is pretty much inevitable but the response should be swift enough to prevent any major hotspot emerging. Medical staff will be looking for it, just in case.

This is in many ways a reverse of the 1918 pandemic, where less was understood, medical technology was not so advanced, there was no co-ordinated global effort (many countries were still undeveloped), and health services were none existent and quickly overwhelmed. Poor nutrition was also a factor, with poorer performance of immune systems.

We are in a much better place today. People can isolate for as long as needed. Even something as basic as refrigeration makes that much easier. Yes there will be a short economic hit, but better that than a pandemic that rumbles on for two years (or however long it takes for the virus to run out of hosts) and brings everything to a grinding halt.

[seenbeen]

We have had several junk mail leaflets through the door and a political paper- I hope this is not another route that the virus could take into our homes!

[JohnL]

As the OP asked - This is now officially a Pandemic.

[dbboy]

I have read reports about how the impact on patients in Italy has been so severe. Pls take time to read this, it is a really scary account of the impact it is having. Then you can decide if you think how the health system here in the UK can cope.

Jason Van Schoor

@jasonvanschoor

?

Mar 9

3/ The current situation is difficult to imagine and numbers do not explain things at all. Our hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid-19, they are running 200% capacity

Jason Van Schoor

@jasonvanschoor

?

Mar 9

4/ We?ve stopped all routine, all ORs have been converted to ITUs and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of pts with severe resp failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.

Jason Van Schoor

@jasonvanschoor

?

Mar 9

5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I?m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed.

Jason Van Schoor

@jasonvanschoor

?

Mar 9

6/ My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients on NIV. PLEASE STOP, READ THIS AGAIN AND THINK.

Jason Van Schoor

@jasonvanschoor

?

Mar 9

7/ We have seen the same pattern in different areas a week apart, and there is no reason that in a few weeks it won?t be the same everywhere, this is the pattern:

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5.8K

Jason Van Schoor

@jasonvanschoor

?

Mar 9

8/ 1)A few positive cases, first mild measures, people are told to avoid ED but still hang out in groups, everyone says not to panick

2)Some moderate resp failures and a few severe ones that need tube, but regular access to ED is significantly reduced so everything looks great

Jason Van Schoor

@jasonvanschoor

?

Mar 9

9/ 3)Tons of patients with moderate resp failure, that overtime deteriorate to saturate ICUs first, then NIVs, then CPAP hoods, then even O2.

4)Staff gets sick so it gets difficult to cover for shifts, mortality spikes also from all other causes that can?t be treated properly.

Jason Van Schoor

@jasonvanschoor

?

Mar 9

10/ Everything about how to treat them is online but the only things that will make a difference are: do not be afraid of massively strict measures to keep people safe,

Jason Van Schoor

@jasonvanschoor

?

Mar 9

11/ if governments won?t do this at least keep your family safe, your loved ones with history of cancer or diabetes or any transplant will not be tubed if they need it even if they are young. By safe I mean YOU do not attend them and YOU decide who does and YOU teach them how to.

Jason Van Schoor

@jasonvanschoor

?

Mar 9

12/ Another typical attitude is read and listen to people saying things like this and think ?that?s bad dude? and then go out for dinner because you think you?ll be safe.

Jason Van Schoor

@jasonvanschoor

?

Mar 9

13/ We have seen it, you won?t be if you don?t take it seriously. I really hope it won?t be as bad as here but prepare.

Jason Van Schoor

@jasonvanschoor

?

Mar 9

Jason Van Schoor

@jasonvanschoor

?

Mar 10

@threadreaderapp

unroll

Dmitriy Kedrin MD, PhD

@GI_Pearls

?

Mar 10

Replying to

@jasonvanschoor

Do you have any evidence of this? Pics of ORs being used as ICUs? Pathologist working as ED docs? Any visual or other evidence would go along way on swaying the large bureaucracy that we have here in the US.

Jason Van Schoor

@jasonvanschoor

?

Mar 10

These photos are of ORs being cleared in Bergamo on the 6 March to make more ICU beds. These spaces are all now filled with patients. In Brescia they have run out of ICU beds and are turning doctors rooms and store rooms into ICUs.

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1 more reply

Danny Wong (黄永年)

@dannyjnwong

?

Mar 9

Replying to

@jasonvanschoor

Similar to the account here

I am worried this sounds like a warzone

Quote Tweet

Silvia Stringhini

@silviast9

? Mar 9

1/ I may be repeating myself, but I want to fight this sense of security that I see outside of the epicenters, as if nothing was going to happen "here". The media in Europe are reassuring, politicians are reassuring, while there's little to be reassured of. #COVID19 #coronavirus

Show this thread

Jason Van Schoor

@jasonvanschoor

?

Mar 9

It IS a war zone. And we are in no way preparing!

[JohnL]

The same sort of information as that above came out of China allegedly.

[TheCat]

Found this informative....

[Sephiroth]

If that?s your information, what?s your conclusion?

[Blah Blah]

This is why containment has had so many resources thrown at it. The worst case scenario is health services being overwhelmed to the point that people who could recover with treatment, start to die. Bear in mind that it seems ten per cent plus need hospital intensive treatment.

The UK response so far has been to test anyone coming into contact with someone who presents with the virus. The idea behind this is to take the heat out of the spread by getting to those infected quickly enough to get them to isolate.

But for that to work as an approach requires every country in the world taking that approach. One country doing very little to test people is the USA. And that is where I think we are going to see a real crisis unless something changes soon.

[TheCat]

Sephiroth Wrote:

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> If that?s your information, what?s your

> conclusion?

Do you really have to be unnecessarily combative about every topic? This really is not the thread for it.

Draw whatever conclusion you like from this fairly simple chart.

[Thunderblue600]

Take a chill pill - 17,000 average a year die from the flu here in the UK - why not ask the postman to stop delivering your mail?

Dan Calladine via twitter well done for the reality check.

Since 2014 flu related deaths have been 17,000 annually - CORONA has been so blown out of all proportion - Media frenzy desperate for more 'copy' - Some are getting extremely RICH off the back of this overblown virus.

So we have advanced from B to C which hopefully will all be over in 3.5 months not Years! Ah so then we go to D!

My dear nephew living with his girlfriend in Dongguan China, in the RED zone shares a very interesting perspective.

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-02-06/how-does-the-wuhan-coronavirus-compare-to-seasonal-flu/

[Blah Blah]

WRONG Thunderblue.

Seasonal flu has a mortality rate of 0.1% and half a million die from it annually worldwide.

THIS virus has a mortality rate of 3%. That is a huge difference. It makes it comparable to Spanish Flu, which was left to spread unchecked, quickly overwhelming existing health services and killed 100 million worldwide in just 12-18 months. Spanish Flu at the time, spreads easily and had no vaccine. See what the problem is now?

COVID19 has the same potential if left to do its worst. The risk is very real. This is not just some jolly by health experts and epidemiologists. Ordinary people downplaying it as though it is, is extremely dangerous. This is one time that we must defer to expert opinion, of which Dan Calladine has none. He is not even a doctor for heaven's sake.

[Blah Blah]

This is a really good overview of what is going on and the challenge we face.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

[intexasatthe moment]

So head of WHO refers to inaction as one reason for declaring a pandemic

" deeply concerned by the alarming levels of the #coronavirus spread, severity & inaction, & expects to see the number of cases, deaths & affected countries climb even higher. Therefore, we made the assessment that #COVID19 can be characterized as a pandemic. "

I'm amazed that the Liverpool game went ahead and supporters from lockeddown Madrid joined a large gathering .

[JohnL]

Thunderblue600 Wrote:

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> Take a chill pill

2 weeks ago on Sky News they interviewed some cheery young Italians in Rome saying similar.