EU Trade Talks Thread

[JohnL]

???? Wrote:

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> We'll see. Wasn't Boris going to be out by the end

> of this year or early next max or something? Don't

> remember whether that was here or Twitter, but you

> were pretty adamant.

A lot of people on Twitter claim his resignation is already pending for early this year.

Replaced by Gove (who I notice is trying to be inclusive in a Govish way).

[JohnL]

Gove's still going this morning

'Gove also said British business must get ?match fit? in order to overcome all the new red tape coming into force as the UK leaves the customs union. ?I?m sure there will be bumpy moments but we are there in order to try to do everything we can to smooth the path.?'

He's preparing the ground for a new post brexit government

[JohnL]

He's also arguing that red tape creates jobs, the opposite of what we've been taught for a number of years.

[Sephiroth]

"But to say Boris is a joke is a bit laughable really.

He got a withdrawal agreement that most at the time said he wasn't going to get, he got a trade agreement that most people either said he wasn't aiming for (some tedious lefty 'it's destructive capitalism funded by his hedge fund mates' blah blah bollox) or was impossible*. He's been a conservative mayor of labour London twice, he won an 80 seat majority a year ago. "

At time of writing the country is in a weird "are we ok?" phase as the deal was struck at the last minute, Christmas is happening and everyone is a bit tuned out. But as details emerge it increasingly looks like he got the deal by caving in on pretty much anything that mattered and that the upcoming years will be the same pattern of the UK asking for more access with a background shrieking from the same leaver voices about betrayal - all from a position of much less power and influence. It's not good

But to take the points made in the post above

"He got a withdrawal agreement that most at the time said he wasn't going to get"

He did this by either lying or not knowing what it mean and as we subsequently saw when people found out what it meant, threatened to break international law. Dumb negotiating position or not, it has cost UK credibility. It also committed UK to a border down the Irish Sea, something 2 prime ministers said no British Prime Minister could ever agree to. So is that clever or a joke? I'm saying it's not clever

"he got a trade agreement that most people either said he wasn't aiming for" - It matches almost not of the Leave promises and leaves the UK worse off in all imaginable ways. Can the country use this "freedom" to pivot to some nimble powerhouse whilst also fulfilling promises made to it' new northern voters and keep the shires happy? Even with a competent govt, no. But this lot? Not even on the radar

"He's been a conservative mayor of labour London twice" - good luck if he ever tries that again

" he won an 80 seat majority a year ago. " As mentioned many times - against Corbyn. And that's on Labour. Bet Johnson couldn't believe his luck. But it's still a majority based on lies "getting brexit done" - because people have a mental image of what that means and few of them seem to realises it's the same as before but with less influence and power

And that 80 seat majority keeps getting repeated - but it only needs 40 rebels and as the reality of the deal as the future years stack up, and with headbangers like the ERG around it's easy to imagine all sorts of problems. When covid clears and by-elections start to happen again it will be interesting to see the trends

Every win he has is based on lies - as mayor you can get sway with that but you can't pretend forever to a whole country that everything is rosy

And this is before we even get into his attitude about covid for months at the beginning, not attending meetings, boasting Uk wouldn't be cowed by it, awarding PPE contracts to mates etc

He is a joke - and the fact that so many voters feel otherwise makes fools of them as well

[????]

I tell you another joke. Ed Milliband.

[diable rouge]

This deal is the withdrawal agreement playbook all over again, lots of threats of no deal ''we'll prosper mightily'' etc, followed by the inevitable last minute concessions to get it over the line. Then issue it with a ''what a great deal it is'' fanfare courtesy of the Tory friendly press. Allow no time to scrutinize it in Parliament in the hope no one notices the full implications etc. And so the Tory psychodrama with Europe rolls on. See you in 5 years time Monsieur Barnier...

[KidKruger]

No matter what positions BoJo has held, he hasn?t achieved much - it?s all about himself and his seduction by power.

That he has been elected as Mayor, PM, whatever, says more about the people who voted for him than it does about his skill as a politician in delivering. And no, Quids that doesn?t mean I think those people are plebs, it means they were hoodwinked !

He hoodwinked people with his quaint bafoony persona (it certainly wasn?t his track record of achievements).

[diable rouge]

???? Wrote:

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> Genuine question, what are the circumstances that

> give us a GE next year? 80 seat majority, trade

> deal done, Covid probably looking rosier next. I

> just don?t see where you get a vote of no

> confidence in 2021 or in fact anytime before the

> next scheduled election. It?s almost inconceivable

> without some black swan event?

Ok, some post-Christmas musings as to why there could be a change of leader (I think that's more likely than a GE next year).

The Tory party is ruthless when it comes to self-preservation, who would ever of thought Thatcher getting kicked out the way she was.

A good swathe of Tory MPs are very twitchy over Johnson's handling of Covid, Labour's poll ratings have improved under Starmer especially in the much vaunted Red Wall seats, this new intake of Tory MPs don't have any historical allegiances to Johnson.

It's never a good sign when a Prime Minister has to meet with the 1922 Committee to reassure them that everything's tickety boo.

Gove and Sunak are clearly positioning themselves as a future leader.

There's a good argument that Johnson was allowed to continue unchallenged despite his calamitous handling of Covid until the Brexit deal was 'done', one way or the other. We've now passed that point, he's not needed anymore in that respect.

And of course there's Covid, great news about the vaccines, but before they take effect there will be a post-new year third wave, probably worse than anything we've seen so far. Jan/Feb always sees the NHS stretched to the limit with seasonal flus, Covid could easily push it beyond capacity.

Any third wave will be tied to Johnson more than previous waves. His tier system has failed to contain the spread of the virus, he went against scientific advice and carried on with it. He sat on info about the mutant strain including when he stood up in Parliament just before Christmas mocking Starmer saying he wanted to cancel Christmas, then two days later he cancelled Christmas and London train stations looked like the last days of Saigon. There's a lot of anger about that.

I don't think we've seen the full economic impact of Covid yet, particularly with respect to unemployment, there will be a bounce back when the vaccines taka effect but probably not until 2022. Younger working generations are used to being in work and have not experienced the high levels of unemployment seen in the 70's an 80's. It's an unknown factor how they will react. Allied to when the vaccines take effect, disgruntled people will feel safer to go onto the streets, the whole political atmosphere could quickly change with mass protests.

He's just not very good in a crisis. Yes he's been unlucky that Covid happened, but he was inept during the floods, he's a Poundshop Churchill in that respect.

Lastly, he might want to step down himself, he's clearly not the same politician pre-Covid...

[JohnL]

He does look ill in the face sometimes as you watch him - stressed.

Long Covid is a real thing as well.

[Alan Medic]

Anyone else receive an 'urgent' email from our local MP asking for views on the 'trade deal'? She's gauging what people feel about it. It would seem this may determine how she will vote tomorrow, in spite of there being a whip to support it in the Labour party.

[TheCat]

In case anyone missed it...ERG folk aregoing to support the deal. So looks like most Tories will be voting along the same lines tomorrow...

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/tory-brexiteers-approve-boris-johnson-s-deal

[Sephiroth]

They have - but to what end? They can't actually be happy with this deal

I think the are positioning themselves for more of the same - complaining and bitching about EU from the side, pushing to break any agreement, causing more strife and tension

[Blah Blah]

They also have the option of the review in four years time. In the statement they released, they focused on whether or not the deal satisfied their notion of 'sovereignty' and decided that it did.

[Alan Medic]

Like Farage, what use are the ERG once this passes through the HOC? They will have got what they wanted and if they don't disappear under the floorboards, they might have to explain what they thought was so good about leaving the EU.

[Sephiroth]

like Farage they won't go away - it will be constant ball aching for years to come. Because it's what they do

Rather than define anything like an agenda for what they actually genuinely want to the country to be like and do (I mean they occasionally try but it's madness and they get dismissed) they prefer instead to let more mainstream political thought do it's thing and then bleat about it

It's why we are here. Cameron went to Brussels just a few years ago and despite endless UK exclusions and exceptions it became a constant cry of "not enough!!". When the only grown up reaction should be "yeah we isn't get what we wanted this time, fair enough"

350 million a week for the NHS - do you honestly think any one of these shites would for one second allow such a thing to happen? It's all "we are prevented from our nirvana by the EU!". They hide behind genuine grievance and prey on those affected.

[JohnL]

If you listen to Sky News now you can realise what a mess our democracy has become.

Rather than a serious debate it's just trolling and gloating.

[Sephiroth]

In other words ?a joke?

[JohnL]

Alan Medic Wrote:

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> Like Farage, what use are the ERG once this passes

> through the HOC? They will have got what they

> wanted and if they don't disappear under the

> floorboards, they might have to explain what they

> thought was so good about leaving the EU.

They'll continue their agenda

Death penalty

Anti abortion

Anti LGBT and "woke"

Rollback devolution

Anti-EU (trying to get others to leave)

edit: There's probably a few more - like knighting Darren Grimes LOL

[TheCat]

The ERG folk will of course continue to agitate anti-EU sentiment. Just as ultra-remainers will do the opposite. Many on here object (rightfully in my mind) to 'shutup, you lost', so I can't imagine ultra brexiteers will not object to 'shutup, you won' if they feel they have something to say.

And to be fair to both sides here, in thinking about the deal about to be passed, I believe it does provide flexibility to do some of the things that the ERG wants, but also provides the flexibility to do some more 'remainery' things (within the context of brexit overall of course). So this is not the 'end' of division by any stretch. Successive governments 'leave' or 'remain' bias will determine how this country acts and develops policiy within the boundaries of the new deal..we can still go in multiple directions here....So there will be pressure from either side for quite some time yet....

[JohnL]

that's fair comment.

[JohnL]

Sky coverage ends just as Theresa May got a bit bitter that Labour didn't vote for her deal.

[Sephiroth]

"I believe it does provide flexibility to do some of the things that the ERG wants,"

I'd be interested to know what you and others think these might be?

[Sephiroth]

I would say that, given this wonderful, not-in-any-way-a-joke of a sovereign, world-beating government hasn't given itself any time to examine the deal, there are all sorts of problems ahead

just now: "Starmer points out that UK businesses only get tariff free access if they abide by rule of origin requirements and the UK sticks to the level playing field. Johnson says: "Rubbish.""

Starmer is of course correct pointing this out, so Johnson is either lying (to the country? to himself?) or he and everyone passing the bill doesn't understand it

[Ossito]

The most striking aspect that seems to be missing from the commentary, for me, is the reality that there are many years of negotiations still to come. Sunak has acknowledged that the deal leaves Financial Services in a bad place, and another deal needs to be done in that space. Recognition of qualifications is going to need country-by-country, profession by profession agreements. And has there been any media update on the lack of agreement about Gibraltar? I can imagine that will give the ERG much to focus on...

[TheCat]

Agree with that. Services still to be settled is a yawning gap. Also, within the context of this deal, seemingly we could move in lock-step with EU standards/state aid and continue tariff free trade. Or potentially deregulate and incentivise industries such robotics, fintech, AI etc....but there may be a price to pay, dependent on how much divergence/incentivisation there is.....

I'm sure that will keep parliament (and the EDF!) Discussing this for quite some time yet....